Wide Receiver Breakouts You Haven't Noticed Yet

November 14, 2020

Justin Carter identifies wide receiver breakouts for 2020 fantasy football that have gone under the radar and are undervalued WRs.

Travis Fulgham, Chase Claypool, Justin Jefferson...these are guys who everyone is talking about, breakout players who have ascended the ranks at wide receiver in 2020.

But there are also players who are breaking out below the surface, guys who might not have stolen the fantasy world's attention but who are currently on the way up.

Or, maybe they're on the way up. That's what we're here to see. Let's look at some wide receivers who are showing signs of breaking out right now and decide if that production is sustainable. (All rankings are based on 0.5-PPR.)

Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals

What's Happening?

Since Week 6, Kirk is the overall WR5.

Will It Keep Happening?

A big reason for Kirk's production over his last three games is that he has five touchdown receptions in that span, so while his 20.65 target share doesn't rank in the top 40 since Week 6, he's been able to produce via the big play.

Of course, big plays aren't always sustainable. Sure, we'll see a guy like Will Fuller V who scores touchdowns week after week because of his ability to make big plays, but for the most part, we need to see strong numbers in other areas to know if a guy is really ascending to the next level or not.

For Kirk, those other numbers are a mixed bag. He doesn't lead his team in targets, receptions, or air yards in this span, because he plays with DeAndre Hopkins. Kirk's gotten four red-zone targets, though, which is a third of all the red zone targets on the team since Week 6 and ties him with a host of players for 14th in red zone target share over that span.

Verdict: There are numbers that both are and aren't encouraging about Kirk. Playing beside DeAndre Hopkins means we can probably count out a true breakout happening, but he does seem to have reached a higher level of production lately. He'll be a solid WR2/3 play with a high ceiling, though I don't think there's really any chance he keeps up top-10 production.

Nelson Agholor, Las Vegas Raiders

What's Happening?

Since Week 7, Agholor is the overall WR24.

Will It Keep Happening?

This might be the biggest surprise out of any of the four players in this article. Agholor was essentially left for dead by the fantasy community after a drop-filled 2019 season in Philly, and his offseason move to Vegas felt like the kind of thing that would pique a little bit of interest from the people who highlight fantasy sleepers but wouldn't lead to much else.

But in recent weeks, Agholor has been emerging as an interesting weapon for the Raiders. In the past three games, he has 30.26 percent of the team's air yards, a huge jump from the 11.73 percent he had in the team's first five games.

It's hard, though, to believe in a player who had 11 targets in the first five games, even if he's had 14 in the past three. And he only had one more target than Hunter Renfrow and four more than Henry Ruggs III in this three-game sample.

Agholor is also living off of touchdowns right now. He's had four in his last five games, but the numbers around his touchdowns haven't been as good. He's topped four targets just once all year, for instance, which was the nine-target game against Tampa that saw him catch five passes for 107 yards. He followed that up with no catches in that windy Browns game, then two catches against the Chargers.

Verdict: Agholor's recent breakout is not sustainable. He remains a risky fantasy play and should not be trusted on a week-to-week basis.

Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers

What's Happening?

Since Week 6, Samuel is the overall WR8.

Will It Keep Happening?

Samuel's a weirder player to get a read on because the way he's used is pretty distinctly different than other wide receivers, in the sense that Samuel is getting some actual running back snaps in addition to his work at receiver.

We maybe thought the rushing attempts would stop with Christian McCaffrey back last game, but they didn't, as Samuel had three of them again. It was the fourth time this season he's seen three or more touches in the run game.

He also was targeted a season-high nine times, and his targets have been going up. He's been very, very good at catching those targets, posting an 85.3 catch rate according to PlayerProfiler, which ranks second among wide receivers.

A key part of that high catch rate? He isn't getting deep targets. His four deep targets ranks 63rd among receivers, and his 6.7 yard average target distance ranks 100th.

Samuel does most of his damage by being incredibly fast and making the most of the shorter passing game. His speed is why he ranks 10th in fantasy points per targets despite the lack of deep chances.

The problem? We've seen usage like this plenty in the past and it's hard to remember it being sustainable. Is Samuel more than a high-performing version of Cordarrelle Patterson? He probably is, right? And having an accurate passer like Teddy Bridgewater who isn't always looking down the field helps ensure Samuel maintains the workload he's getting, but there are still a lot of questions, right?

Verdict: Samuel should hover around 10 opportunities per game the rest of the way via some combination of targets and carries. Some weeks, that'll lead to a lot of production. Others, it won't. He'll have to avoid negative plays since he isn't getting deep opportunities. I'll stop short of calling his breakout sustainable, but he's in a good spot right now.

Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots

What's Happening?

Since Week 7, Meyers is the overall WR12.

Will It Keep Happening?

Here's a fun chart per Add More Funds:

Since Week 6, Meyers is seventh in the NFL in air yards (and is behind Darnell Mooney, who I almost wrote about in this article.) He's gotten 65.89 percent of New England's air yards since then, by far the highest rate in the NFL over that time, with Terry McLaurin second with 49.47 percent of Washington's air yards.

The Patriots have a lot of injuries, and it's left them bereft of talent at wide receiver. With Julian Edelman having had knee surgery and no clear time line for his return except that he isn't expected to miss the rest of the season, the only thing in Meyers's way in terms of losing production is the return of N'Keal Harry, but I'm not sure anything about Harry's NFL career suggests he's a threat to Meyers.

Verdict: Meyers is going to keep performing, because New England doesn't have anyone else to perform. He's a WR2/3 play right now.

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