RADIO
There is plenty of quality starting pitching depth up and down a fantasy baseball draft chart. However, once in the later rounds, the names begin to get a bit unfamiliar. These latter rounds though provide an excellent opportunity to take a chance and invest in a lesser known commodity.
There are several quality pitchers that fall in the ADP range of 200-300. Three lefties, however, standout from this group as strong candidates to have stellar upcoming seasons.
Seattle’s James Paxton (ADP: 235), Kansas City’s Danny Duffy (ADP: 262) and Houston's Dallas Keuchel (ADP: 202), and all have great opportunities to build on their strong 2014 seasons. With all of them 27 years of age or younger, there is room for each to improve and hit their stride as they all enter their prime years.
James Paxton (LHP, SEA) - Current ADP: 235
Seattle's former star prospect southpaw, James Paxton, has been hampered by injuries all throughout his young career thus far. When healthy, however, Paxton has the stuff to be one of the premier left-handed power pitchers in all of baseball. A strained lat muscle in his left shoulder limited him to just 13 starts in 2014, but those 13 starts were good for a 120 ERA+, demonstrating he was very effective in the 74 innings he pitched. Stephen Strasburg's ERA+ was 119 in 2014 for reference, albeit in a much larger sample size (215 IP).
The stuff is there for Paxton as well. The Canadian can bring the heat as he averaged nearly 95 MPH (94.4) on his fastball last season, which is typically rare to find in left-handers. He also possesses a nice four pitch mix he uses to get hitters out: a four-steam fastball, cutter, big curveball, and a change up. Paxton has also maintained a very strong 55.8 ground ball percentage over his 98 big league innings, which should lead to more double plays turned by his defense behind him and less home runs allowed.
Even if his ground ball rate should drop, Paxton plays all his home games in Seattle's spacious Safeco Field, which ranked 26th in home runs allowed as recently as the 2012 season according to Fangraphs. Assuming he can stay healthy, look for big things from Seattle's big lefty in 2015.
Danny Duffy (LHP, KC) - Current ADP: 262
A big part of Kansas City's magical run to the World Series last year was the emergence of Danny Duffy. With former ace James Shields departing to the Padres via free agency, the Royals are expecting big things out of their young southpaw. Duffy is coming off a year where he shifted back and forth between Kansas City's bullpen and starting rotation. He still proved to be very effective in 2014, even with the conundrum of going back and forth between roles on the club. Duffy pitched to a 2.53 ERA last season over 31 games, 25 of them which were starts. In those 149.1 innings pitched, he allowed only 6.8 H/9 while accumulating an outstanding 157 ERA+. Slated to be a full time stater this year, Duffy can focus on building off of what was a very successful 2014 season.
Duffy boasts a nice three pitch mix: a fastball that averaged over 93 MPH last year, a change up, and a big, devastating curveball that is his bread and butter. Even though he only stuck out only 6.8 batters per 9 last year, he has one of the best defenses in baseball behind him including 2014 Gold Glove award winners Salvador Perez and Alex Gordon as well as 2014 Gold Glove finalist Alcides Escobar.
Playing in Kuaffman Stadium can't hurt either as it ranked as 21st in home runs allowed in 2012. This is especially important for a pitcher like Duffy, who allowed a 46% fly ball rate last year. With Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, and Alex Rios projected to be Kansas City's starting outfield left to right though, Duffy should be in very good hands in terms of outfield defensive support.
Dallas Keuchel (LHP, HOU) - Current ADP: 202
Houston starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel is entering his third season as an Astro after enjoying a breakout 2014 campaign. The left-hander pitched to a 2.93 ERA in exactly 200 inning over 29 starts in 2014. He even managed to add a Gold Glove award to his mantle last year as well.
While Keuchel does pitch to contact, the sinker-baller is widely regarded as a ground ball machine. He led all of baseball in ground ball rate, inducing 64.58% of balls put in play against him to be hit on the ground. This limits damage against him to mostly singles and allows him to induce a rally killing double play ball whenever he needs it, which makes up for his rather pedestrian 6.6 SO/9 rate in 2014. He allowed less than a hit per inning (8.4 H/9) and proved he could eat up innings as he completed an impressive five games last year. He also proved to be very consistent throughout the course of the season as well turning in 21 quality starts over his 29 overall starts.
Even though his team plays half of its games at a hitters park in Minute Maid Park, Keuchel's ground ball rates should negate the park factor in Houston. Expect Keuchel to follow up his superb 2014 season with another very solid season in 2015, as he proved to be one of the most consistent lefties in the American League last season.
With all this in mind, look for these three starting pitchers to provide great value towards the end of your drafts, as they all have undervalued ADPs and the potential to be impact fantasy baseball producers in 2015.
