Under-the-Radar Booms/Busts: Week 12

November 25, 2018

Craig Rondinone analyzes the under-the-radar booms and busts for Week 12 in fantasy football. These players could be high upside flex plays or players to bench and sit in Week 12.

There will be a lot less scoring in fantasy football games in Week 12.

Coming on the heels of the highest-scoring game in Monday Night Football history, the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs get a well-deserved breather this week. While that might be great for Todd Gurley, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Jared Goff, it is not great for the fantasy owners who have Rams and Chiefs on bye when their leagues are entering the final weeks of its regular season. I personally have both Gurley and Kareem Hunt in one of my leagues, so my backfield will consist of Matt Breida and Peyton Barber this week. Luckily, my opponent has both Mahomes and Goff, so he has his own problems.

Here are some under-the-radar booms and busts for the 11th week of NFL action to help you set a winning lineup. Good luck RotoBallers!

Week 12 Under-the-Radar Booms

Dak Prescott (QB, DAL) vs. WAS - Thursday Night

Prescott is never going to be a top-five fantasy quarterback. Sorry to break it to you, Cowboys fans and Prescott owners! In an offense that revolves around Ezekiel Elliott and Dallas’ powerful offensive line, Prescott and the passing game take a back seat, which hurts his fantasy value as much as any defense does. But while Prescott has about as much chance throwing for 300 yards and four touchdowns in a week as I do winning a Pulitzer Prize for this column, he does have a chance to have one of his biggest games of the season on Thanksgiving.

Prescott will be passing against Washington’s 24-ranked pass defense, a unit that has had problems covering receivers with cornerbacks not named Josh Norman. While Dallas’ receiving corps is average at best, the addition of Amari Cooper has upgraded it and given Prescott’s other receivers the opportunity to be covered by lesser corners. With Washington loading up the box against Elliott, look for Prescott to throw for 275 yards and to score three touchdowns via the air-ground combo to make his fantasy owners happier than when their turkeys are placed on their dining room tables.

Peyton Barber (RB, TB) vs. SF

Barber is coming off his best outing of the season after rushing for 108 yards and a touchdown against the New York Giants, which is not saying much. Considering he has been Tampa Bay’s top tailback since Week 1 it is a little perplexing that he only has three touchdowns and that his 100-yard-game versus the Giants was his first one this season. His low fantasy output is why he is still a blue-light special in DFS leagues and a No. 4 RB on fantasy squads in standard leagues.

Barber is home against a young San Francisco defense that is 13^th against the run but has been mediocre overall. With Jameis Winston back at the helm of an offense that has flip-flopped at quarterback as often as Mitt Romney used to flip-flop on his policy stances, Barber should receive ample scoring opportunities this weekend and could have 100 yards and a touchdown for the second straight Sunday.

Michael Crabtree (WR, BAL) vs. OAK

Crabtree has every right to be crabby this season, as do his fantasy owners. He entered the season with new life as many thought he would be Joe Flacco’s go-to guy in Baltimore’s aerial attack and possibly get back to the 1,000-yard range again. Instead, he is arguably the No. 3 WR behind John Brown and Willie Snead, two castoffs themselves that found new life with the Ravens. Crabtree just had his worst game of the season versus Cincinnati as he caught just one pass for seven measly yards.

Crabtree is going to want to everything in his power to get revenge against an Oakland team that made him part of their purge in the offseason. The Raiders’ 17^th-ranked pass defense is not going to be detrimental to Crabtree’s fantasy numbers. His only issue could be run-first rookie QB Lamar Jackson’s penchant for scrambling instead of throwing, but Jackson’s second start should be better than his first from a passing perspective. Crabtree is a low-cost DFS option and waiver wire choice who could produce 75 yards and a score this weekend.

Week 12 Under-the-Radar Busts

Rashaad Penny (RB, SEA) at CAR

Penny is a dynamic rookie runner who is finally getting the touches so he can show the world his skills. He has 20 rushes for 154 yards and a touchdown over his past two games as Pete Carroll and the Seahawks coaching staff has gotten it through their heads that their first-round pick cannot affect games from the sideline. Penny is slowly becoming a fantasy football darling to many, especially in dynasty leagues where his future is brightest and fantasy value is highest.

The problem for Penny is Seattle still has a three-headed running attack because Chris Carson and Mike Davis are playing well themselves and are not ceding playing time to Penny without a fight. Penny will get 10 touches at most this week against Carolina's top-10 run defense that has not allowed any running back to rush for 70 yards against them in their five home games. The math does not add up to Penny having a fantastic fantasy week.

Josh Doctson (WR, WAS) at DAL (Thursday)

Washington’s passing “attack” is trending downhill every week it seems, but now that quarterback Alex Smith is out for the season with a broken leg and the reigns have been turned over to Colt McCoy, it may be at its lowest point possible. Doctson has been a major disappointment since being picked in the first round in 2016. Even though he has caught touchdown passes in two of his past three games, he has not had a 50-yard game this year despite the Redskins having countless injuries among the rest of their receiving corps. Yet with Doctson scoring lately and McCoy maybe having the ability to get the ball downfield more consistently, Doctson is probably viewed as a decent play on Turkey Day.

The Dallas defense has allowed 20 points or less in five of its past six games, is ranked 10^th in pass defense and is playing its best ball of the season. The Cowboys are also home in a must-win divisional game with their playoff lives hanging in the balance. I cannot see Doctson suddenly having a 100-yard game against this defense, let alone finding the end zone.

Demaryius Thomas (WR, HOU) at TEN (Monday)

Houston’s Thomas was supposed to be more involved in the Texans passing attack in his second game with the team. What did he do this past Sunday? He had zero catches and was targeted one time. Philadelphia’s Golden Tate was also slated to be featured more after having another week of the Eagles offense memorized, but his five receptions for 48 yards did not win any fantasy owners any games or millions. I am trying to wrap my heads around why NFL organizations deal draft picks at the trade deadline for receivers when the pass catchers need a month to learn the offense.

I know Tennessee was embarrassed by Andrew Luck and T.Y Hilton last weekend when Indianapolis branded the Titans 38-10, but they still have the ninth-ranked pass defense in the league and have been above-average when it comes to sticking closely to wideouts. The Houston-Tennessee game will be a slobber-knocker and could be a low-scoring slugfest. I think Thomas is still a week or two away from really grasping the offense and becoming an integral part of the passing attack. Find a different receiver to hang your helmet on.

That’s it for another week. Follow me on Twitter @craigrondinone!

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