How much time do you spend thinking about Tyrod Taylor? You don’t? Well, today I’m here to change that, because Tyrod Taylor is primed for a breakout season whether you realize it or not.

Tyrod Taylor is the QB1 that no one is talking about. Sure, Buffalo is a run-heavy team with many question marks at wide receiver, including oft-injured Sammy Watkins. That doesn't mean Taylor can't deliver numbers that will lead your fantasy team to victory. The best part about it is his current ADP (11.11) makes it easy to stack up on skill position players before addressing the quarterback situation.

While Taylor has been around long enough that he won't be considered a trendy sleeper, he needs to be given more attention than he's getting and here's why:

The QB1 Nobody is Talking About

Numerous articles point to Taylor being the clear-cut starter for the Bills this year. We’ve been hearing great things coming out of camp, including quotes from Bills’ head coach, Sean McDermott, stating that he’s been impressed with Tyrod Taylor’s leadership. Cardale Jones has been traded to the Chargers and rookie Nathan Peterman should be an afterthought at the QB position. This is Taylor's team, and this year he’s going to send a message that he’s there to stay.

Tyrod Taylor finished 2015 as a borderline QB1 at #14 overall even though he missed three games.  During this time, he had six QB1 weeks with all of those being ranked in the top seven, and all of the other games he finished as a QB2.  That’s solid in and of itself, but in 2016 he improved on his performance. Tyrod finished last year as the #8 QB overall, which was higher than Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, and Russell Wilson. At year’s end, Taylor only had three games outside the top 15.  He played seven games as a QB1, and four games in the top five at the position.  This means that in three-fourths of his games he was a top-end QB2 or better, with nearly half of his games played being a QB1. Furthermore, his two worst games last year came against two top-rated defenses.

Not only did he stay healthier last year, but also got even better.  He found ways to be productive when Sammy wasn’t on the field and stayed a viable fantasy option nearly every week. This is consistency at a value, as he’s being drafted between the 16^th and 19^th QB in all formats.  In dynasty leagues, or especially 2QB/Superflex leagues, Taylor is someone that is just too cheap not to pick up and benefit from. Still not convinced? Let’s get into how Tyrod actually played week in and week out last year and why we really should be optimistic going forward.

The Proof Is In the Pudding

In the pocket, Taylor was 248 of 383 (64.7%) for 2,651 yards with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions. That equates to a 92.4 QB rating, this is just under Russell Wilson who graded out at 92.6 QBR.  This is nearly a 65% completion rating and a 3:1 TD to INT ratio.  That’s way more consistent than one would expect from someone who’s been tagged as a purely dual threat QB.  Furthermore, Taylor was constantly pressured last year; he was sacked 46 times in 2016, which equated to the second-highest sack percentage in the NFL.  This provides us some very interesting statistics to analyze on how he handles pressure and why he’s likely to be even better this year when that pressure is likely partially lifted.

In 2016, Taylor’s passer rating when under pressure of 80.1 was seventh best among qualifying quarterbacks. According to PFF, Taylor had the third highest passer efficiency stat under pressure in the AFC last year, that’s less than five points under Brady and less than 2.5 points under the second place finisher.  Taylor finished the year with 10 TDs while under pressure, this was tied with 3^rd in the league last year with only Luck and Rodgers being higher on that list.  Simply put, Taylor doesn’t welt under pressure, he excels.  With this kind of practice under his belt, he’s bound to get even better next year.  One of the central rules to statistical projections is that you can count on what is called regression to the mean.  This means that when something is out of the ordinary one way or another, unless it is highly consistent, we can expect a noticeable movement back to average. Taylor’s play under pressure is consistent, this pass blocking isn’t.

Why shouldn’t we expect further problems on this front?  Beyond regression to the mean, a couple of things have happened this off-season.

First, in the division the Jets have gutted their team, losing a ten-year starter on defense in David Harris, along with many others.  It will be safe to say that those two matchups will be easier from a front-seven perspective.

Second, the Dolphins lost Vance Joseph, their highly regarded DC to the Broncos this year. It would make sense that there will be some kind of drop off due to his absence. This is a fourth of Buffalo's schedule that is now a bit easier.

Third is the pass blocking in particular, one of the reasons Taylor was pressured so often was that he had beyond piss poor protection from his running back crew.  Shady McCoy may be an electric play maker, but according to PFF he was literally the worst pass protecting RB in the league last year, allowing 13 pressures on 92 attempts last year.  Nearly every one of those pressures turned into sacks because of the proximity to the QB of the blown assignment.  To remedy this the Bills brought in pass blocking phenomenon, Mike Tolbert.  Tolbert is consistently a top 3 pass blocking RB in the league and gets very few carries because of it.  Last year, he was rated No. 2 overall in pass blocking grade even better than the hulk of a man that is Derick Henry. Tolbert is literally a better pass blocker than someone that is a carbon copy of Von Miller.

Tolbert over the course of his career has been a blocker on more than 50% of his snaps. This bodes poorly for Shady as it seems that Tolbert is likely to become the short yardage/third and long back. One would think that Tolbert is going to vulture all of Taylor's rushing TDs of which he LED the league in last year with eight. That’s right, he had more rushing TDs than: Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck, everyone else.  In nearly any other circumstance, this would be a concern, but not for Taylor and the Bills because they use the threat of a RB to run Taylor more than any other QB in the league.  The read option never disappeared in Buffalo as the Bills still ran the QB option on 39.4% of running plays last year which is nearly 10% higher than any other team.  This means that on plays where Shady, Johnathan Williams, or Tolbert would usually steal a TD, Taylor is highly likely to still get his. This situation is fantasy gold!

Finally, the Bills’ line was much better near the end of last year in pass protection, which netted the whole line an average to very above average grade according to PFF with two players ending up as pro-bowlers in Cordy Glenn and Richie Incognito.  As this line continues to gel with Tolbert, Taylor will only continue to get better.

Need a bit more assurance to get excited about?  Over the last five weeks of the 2016 season, Tyrod was sixth in fantasy points per game as per CBS scoring. He averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game over that period. How about his rushing rankings compared to other QBs?  Carries (first), red zone carries (second), rushing yards (first), rushing touchdowns (first), even with a regression to the mean, you should still expect Tyrod to get you a grip of points on the ground and through the air.

Although the Bills lost Mike Gillislee to the Pats, they moved up to pick Zay Jones in the draft. Jones is the all-time FBS record holder in receptions in a season and career.  On top of that he posted one of the lowest drop rates in the nation last year even though he was targeted enough to break the record in the first place.  It is expected that Sammy will be healthy this year since his injury type is usually something that lingers for a year, then isn’t as much of an issue.  Many other players have had the same injury with the same time out and nearly all have come back as strong as ever.  With the OC talking about the chemistry between Taylor and Clay increasing and a dynamic pass catcher like Jones on the field, Taylor has everything he needs to be successful this year: a great runner, a solid QB under pressure, with an easier situation in front of him.  Tyrod Taylor has everything he needs to have the best year of his career yet.  Buy him while he’s still cheap.

More Sleepers & Draft Values