RADIO
Michael Grennell analyzes under-the-radar starting pitchers (SP) making two starts in Week 20 as possible streamers and waiver wire adds or targets for fantasy baseball.
Oof. Big oof. That was my reaction after finding out that shortly after publishing last week's column, both Michael Pineda AND Griffin Canning ended up on the Injured List. Then add on to that the fact Jordan Yamamoto's start got pushed back, and...yeah I whiffed on last week's column. My bad guys.
Wrapping up Week 17's list, Reynaldo Lopez was the top choice to go with as he finished 1-0 with five runs allowed over 10 2/3 innings while striking out nine. And taking a look at the two guys from Week 18 still on track to make two starts, Dylan Cease is out in front after allowing two runs over five innings while striking out six en route to his second career win.
Well here's hoping half of this week's list doesn't end up on the IL as well.
Week 20 Streamers - Under 50% Owned
Zac Gallen, ARI - 54% owned
Probable opponents: @ COL, vs SFG
I know he's technically over the 50% threshold, but Gallen has been dominating teams over his last five starts, as he has posted a 1.53 ERA with 33 strikeouts over 29 1/3 innings. In his Arizona debut on Wednesday, Gallen allowed one hit and three walks over five scoreless innings while striking out six against the Phillies.
He'll open up Week 20 on the road against the Rockies, who have gone 3-7 over their last 10 games while averaging 4.4 runs and 6.8 strikeouts per game in that span. This start could prove somewhat problematic for Gallen, as the Rockies hit significantly better at home (.307 average, .894 OPS) than on the road (.230, 674). But even with those splits, Gallen has shown success shutting down top offenses in Minnesota and Los Angeles, where he held the Twins and Dodgers to a combined four runs — three earned — over 12 1/3 innings, so playing the struggling Rockies should be much of a challenge. After Colorado, Gallen returns home to Arizona where he will face the Giants, who are hitting even worse than the Rockies. Over their last 10 games, San Francisco is averaging 3.0 runs and 8.1 strikeouts per game while posting a 3-7 record in that span.
Despite the potential difficulty of playing the Rockies at Colorado, this week seems to be a relatively easy slate of starts for the rookie. Gallen is riding a hot streak right now, and owners should jump on the bandwagon and target him first and foremost out of this week's column.
Brendan McKay, TBR - 39% owned
Probable opponents: @ SDP, vs DET
Another rookie with a good schedule this week, McKay has taken a hit to this ERA over the past couple weeks but he's continuing to post high strikeout numbers. He has seen his ERA jump from 1.69 to 4.55 over his last three starts, but he has posted four straight outings with at least five strikeouts and he has thrown at least seven strikeouts in three of his last four starts.
Starting off the week in San Diego, McKay will face a Padres offense that is averaging 5.7 runs and 10.0 strikeouts over their last 10 games. While the Padres may be one of the highest-scoring offenses over the last two weeks, McKay will benefit from San Diego's batting splits as they are hitting worse at home (.234 average, .715 OPS) than on the road (.255, .766) and they are hitting worse against left-handed starters (.229, .707) than against right-handers (.249, .750). After San Diego, McKay will return to Tampa Bay to take on the Tigers who have gone 3-7 over their last 10 games while averaging 5.0 runs and 8.0 strikeouts over that span. That scoring average though is quite inflated from the Tigers wins in this span, as they scored 29 of their 50 runs in those three victories.
McKay is the guy to go after from this week's column if you're looking for strikeout potential. As mentioned before, McKay's ERA has climbed over his last few starts, and he'll be facing a couple of offenses that are upping their scoring output over the last few weeks. If you're willing to risk a potential hit to your ERA, McKay should be your first pick out of this column.
Week 20 Streamers - Under 25% Owned
Ivan Nova, CHW - 17% owned
Probable opponents: vs HOU, @ LAA
After a rough start to the season, Nova has been pitching significantly better over the last two months. Over his last seven starts Nova is 4-2 with a 2.44 ERA and three quality starts while striking out 24 in 44 1/3 innings. Nova will start Week 20 against the Astros, who are averaging 7.4 runs and 7.3 strikeouts over their last 10 games. It's definitely an outing for owners to be wary of, but Nova will have a slight benefit from Houston's splits, as they are hitting worse against right-handed starters (.265 average, .815 OPS) than against left-handers (.292, .876) and they are hitting worse on the road (.266, .818) than at home (.279, .846). Things will look much better in his second start against the Angels, as they are averaging 2.9 runs and 9.7 strikeouts over their last 10 games.
Nova isn't a strikeout machine, and owners shouldn't expect much help in that category this week. What Nova should be able to provide a boost to in Week 20 are wins and ERA, and in leagues that count it he could provide at least one quality start. He's not going to single-handedly win the week for you, but he should provide solid help that could push your team over the edge.
Joe Ross, WAS - 2% owned
Probable opponents: vs CIN, vs MIL
Since making the move from the bullpen to the rotation, Ross has been a fairly effective starter. Over four starts, Ross is 2-2 with a 3.80 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings against the Braves, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Giants. He'll start off Week 20 against the Reds, who have heated up at the plate recently and are averaging 5.5 runs and 7.8 strikeouts over their last 10 games. Ross should benefit slightly from the Reds' splits, as they are hitting 25 points lower against right-handed starters and 17 points lower on the road. After Cincinnati, Ross will take on the Brewers, who are averaging 3.9 runs and 10.0 strikeouts over their last 10 games.
Ross' value this week is similar to Nova's, in that he won't win the week for you all by himself, but he can provide a solid boost to a strong team. Both of their matchups this week are relatively similar in difficulty and potential, but owners should try to grab Nova before looking at Ross.
Dillon Peters, LAA - 2% owned
Probable opponents: vs PIT, vs CHW
Peters is essentially the American League version of Ross this week. Since making the move from the bullpen to the rotation, Peters has been pitching well with a 3.18 ERA and 19 strikeouts over his last 22 2/3 innings. He'll take on the Pirates first in Week 20, who despite posting a 2-8 record in their last 10 games are averaging 5.3 runs and 7.1 strikeouts in that span. Pittsburgh though is hitting significantly worse this year against left-handed starters (.249 average, .690 OPS) than against right-handers (.270, .766), which should give a boost to Peters' value. His next start will come against the White Sox, who have averaged 4.6 runs and 11.3 strikeouts over their last 10 games. Between the two starts, it will likely be his outing against Chicago that provides the most value for Peters.
While I previously compared Ross' value to Nova, Peters will likely be at almost the exact same level of value as Ross this week. If owners are looking at either Peters or Ross, it will truly boil down to a coin toss as to who you should target first. That being said, my money is on Ross for Week 20.
