RADIO
Pierre Camus' 2020 fantasy football value analysis of Dolphins rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Is he a 2020 fantasy football draft sleeper and top dynasty QB target?
Before the 2019 football season began, a common refrain among fans of losing NFL franchises became "Tank for Tua!" The growing legend of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa at perennial championship game participant Alabama had cemented him as the top prospect in the nation.
The idea of piling on losses to grab a potential franchise-changing quarterback is nothing new. In 2020, it will likely be "Tank for Trevor" i.e. Trevor Lawrence of Clemson. Things change quickly in the football world, though. As it turned out, Joe Burrow went on to have a record-setting season and re-asserted LSU as a dominant SEC team while Tua Tagovailoa would suffer an injury that threw his entire future in question.
As it happened, the team that seemed destined to pick him all along wound up landing the QB without having to own the top pick in the NFL Draft. Is it a match made in fantasy football heaven or is the risk too great on both sides of the equation to justify a high draft pick in dynasty leagues?
Profile
Team: Miami Dolphins
College: Alabama
Height/Weight 6’0”, 217 lb
2020 NFL Draft: Round 1, Pick 5
Instant Success
Everyone who follows college football even slightly knows the story. Tagovailoa was the backup to Jalen Hurts in his freshman year, only seeing the field in blowout wins (which came quite often). Then, the unexpected happened and the legend began.
Hurts was benched at halftime of the BCS National Championship against Georgia and Tagovailoa stepped in to lead the team to victory. He threw for 166 yards and tossed three touchdowns in the second half and overtime. Apologies to Georgia fans, but here's the 41-yard strike that won the game in OT and led Tagovailoa to the championship game's MVP award and thrust him into the limelight.
He went on to have a spectacular sophomore season, finishing second in Heisman voting after putting up 43 TD compared to six INT and falling just short of 4,000 passing yards. He also led the SEC in completion percentage (69%), yards per attempt (11.2), and passer efficiency rating (199.4).
In 2019, he was on track for an even better, possibly historic season. Tagovailoa had increased his completion rate to 71.4%, his YPA to 11.3, and his PER to 206.9 with a 33/3 TD/INT rate. Then, near-tragedy struck while the Crimson Tide were cruising against Mississippi State. Tagovailoa was sacked and suffered a dislocated hip as well as a concussion. The hip injury would shelve him for the remainder of his junior year and he would then elect to leave early for the NFL.
Injury Concerns
This isn't even the elephant in the room - it's been a largely-discussed topic for over a year. Although the elephant metaphor would be fitting for obvious reasons.
Tua's talent has never been in question, nor is his ability to perform in high-pressure situations or against top-level competition. The only thing that could have conceivably kept him from being the top QB prospect is just what occurred - a devastating injury that wiped out a large portion of his season before heading to the pros.
Surgeon Dr. Chip Routt, who performed surgery on Tagovailoa in November of 2019, described his injury as consistent with someone who had been in a serious car crash. It was not just a serious injury, it was atypical of common football injuries. This wasn't an ACL injury or a fractured digit for which there are common timetables for recovery. NFL teams would have little information and many questions on just how Tagovailoa would recover, if at all. Considering he had suffered an ankle injury previously, some were quick to slap the "injury-prone" tag on him.
Far be it for me or any other non-medical professional to conjecture regarding injury. All we have to go on is the word of the doctor who worked with Tagovailoa personally. “No, he is not susceptible to injury,” said Routt. “We have a nice repair that should lower the chances of arthritic damage as he gets to be an old man. His injury had a pattern that allowed us to put the pieces back where they came from. . . .
“What he had was serious, but we got it worked out.”
Clearly, there is no denying this injury should have caused concern regarding his ability to play at a high level. Fortunately, it doesn't seem as if he will be restricted in any way. The successful surgery and hard work he has reportedly put in during rehab should allow him to be ready as soon as the 2020 season begins.
Tagovailoa admits the injuries are troubling but doesn't have any apprehension in terms of getting back to work right away.
2020 Outlook
Even if he is cleared to play with no limitations on the first day of traning camp and the Dolphins don't indicate that they will handle him with kid gloves, there is no need to put Tagovailoa on your draft board. The Phins spent a top-five pick and dropped $30 million for their spiritual successor to Dan Marino. They aren't going to throw him out there Week 1 to get a W against the Patriots. In fact, if they really want to stick it to their division rival now that Tom Brady is finally gone, starting a rookie in his first taste of the league would be the worst way to go about it.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has proven to be a perfectly-capable QB at the age of 37. Despite a completely non-existent running game and a skeleton crew at receiver, especially after Preston Williams tore his ACL in Week 9, Fitzmagic was able to complete 62% of his passes and throw for 3,529 yards in 13 starts. This came on the heels of a 2018 season where he led the league with 14.4 yards per completion and 8.81 net yards per attempt. He isn't the future, obviously, but the Dolphins chose to retain his services as a bridge to their new QB. Expect Fitzpatrick to start the first few games unless things go very sour early or he gets injured.
Fitz factor aside, the Dolphins won't be the most fantasy-friendly pass offense this year. It's true that Miami finished seventh in pass attempts in 2019, but that was largely due to the ineffectiveness to their "defense" which allowed the most points (494 or 30.8 per game) and third-most total yards (6,364 or 397.7 per game) in the league. They completely overhauled that unit in the offseason, adding Byron Jones, Eric Rowe, Kyle Van Noy, Elandon Roberts, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Shaq Lawson in addition to draft picks Noah Igbinoghene, Raekwon Davis, Brandon Jones, and Curtis Weaver.
Even if it's not a dominant defense, it won't be a sieve like last year. The team also ignored the wide receiver position in the draft and free agency, so they are rolling with the same group minus the services of Preston Williams if he isn't fully recovered by Week 1.
Bottom line: Tagovailoa will be eased into action to make sure he is fully prepared both physically and mentally. Once he steps on the field, he won't be in the best situation to succeed from a fantasy standpoint. He simply isn't worth stashing in redraft leagues outside of very deep two-QB formats.
Dynasty Outlook
In upcoming rookie drafts, Tua Tagovailoa will be viewed by dynasty owners similarly to the way he was viewed by NFL franchises. As our Andrew Lalama said in his AFC East Draft Review, teams will be simultaneously scared to pass on him and terrified to take him.
Quarterbacks are not popular early picks in single-QB leagues, especially ones with an extended injury history. That said, his health should really not be an issue as mentioned above. The upside of a potential franchise passer is too good to pass up. Realistically, Tua's ceiling is far higher than that of Brandon Aiyuk or Denzel Mims.
One issue worth addressing is his rushing upside. Quarterbacks who are considered dual-threats are increasingly value. The obvious case of MVP Lamar Jackson aside, we saw Josh Allen finish as the QB6 despite barely throwing for 3,000 yards and completing fewer than 60% of his passes thanks to his scrambling ability. Five of the top eight fantasy QBs in 2019 rushed for at least 300 yards. Lower the threshold to 250 rushing yards and Patrick Mahomes is the only one of that group that failed to reach that mark.
Unfortunately, Tagovailoa may not put himself among that elite group. He rushed for a total of 340 yards in 32 college games with a 3.3 yards per attempt average. We don't have a 40 time or SPARQ score to project his athletic ability due to his late-season injury, so watching his tape is critical in this regard. He repeatedly showed escapability and a knack for finding gaps in the defense when necessary, but he did not pull the ball down to run unless absolutely necessary.
Add in his injury history and the Dolphins are unlikely to design many RPOs for him. Tagovailoa should be predominately a pocket passer as a pro. This clearly limits his fantasy ceiling in the modern NFL, but doesn't preclude him from being a solid low-end QB1 similar to Carson Wentz.
Bottom Line: In Superflex leagues, there is no way he should fall outside the first five picks of a rookie draft and will often be the number two overall pick. In a standard league, he is currently a fringe first-round pick, usually selected early in round two. Those with an aging QB on the way out or falling from grace, such as Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, can pull the trigger on Tagovailoa as a solid replacement in 2021. It would be hard to justify drafting him before Joe Burrow since Burrow is in position to succeed sooner and doesn't carry any red flags with him. If you are targeting Tua, watch for Burrow's name on the draft board as that is your cue to grab Tagovailoa on your next pick.
More NFL Rookie Analysis
