Trading Up - Paul Goldschmidt

Since 2013, Paul Goldschmidt has helped fantasy baseball owners win leagues in every format. This season I’ve been seeing posts for a month declaring Goldschmidt as “old-s**t.” It’s a steep fall.

At the start of the season, Goldschmidt was a no-doubt first-round pick. Owners could take him number 3, and someone might grumble about Nolan Arenado, but that was it. He offered MVP upside and the bedrock foundation of a guy who had averaged the following line for the previous six years:

If you focused only on Goldschmidt’s last three seasons, the numbers were even better. As the adage goes, you can’t win a season in the first round, but you can lose it. At the start of the season, Goldschmidt represented the anti-Trea Turner pick: he was a rock-solid player with a proven track record, but he was less likely to challenge Trout or Altuve for the most valuable player. My preseason rankings put him fifth right between Mookie Betts and Charlie Blackmon. Needless to say, he is far from that ranking now and owners are getting impatient. Is it time to sell or is he a hold/buy-low candidate?

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Not So Golden

So far this season, Goldschmidt has looked like this:

Those numbers put him on pace for 23 HR, 95 R, 58 RBI, and six SB. The plate discipline and advanced stats paint a picture of legitimately poor performance rather than simple bad luck. Goldschmidt is walking less and barely stealing at all. His BABIP is a respectable .285 while his average lingers around the Mendoza line. Even the power is well below what owners would expect. A .192 ISO is just .031 better than league average.

We've Been Here Before

Some people remember where they were when Kennedy fell. For others, it’s the first time they watched Albert Pujols get overpowered by some scrub reliever's fastball. What lessons have we learned from 2016 Andrew McCutchen, 2015 Miguel Cabrera, or 2014 Robinson Cano? All three of those players entered that season as a first-round pick among most experts: players who could compete for MVP and who offered superior consistency. All three of those players underperformed in ways that left their owners feeling as though the player had cost them the season.

In some cases like this, there are documented injuries. In other cases, there are unreported nicks and scrapes which combine with other external factors – a divorce, trade rumors, a change in the playing environment – which adversely affect the player’s performance. For McCutchen, Cabrera, and Cano, there were concrete data that suggested genuine problems. McCutchen’s K% spiked, and his speed seemed to evaporate along with his above average BABIP and elite OBP. Cabrera had turned 32, appeared overshadowed by the new superstars, and suffered a Grade-3 calf-strain, which seemed like an old-man injury as Trout and McCutchen ran literal circles around the base paths. When Cabrera returned, he hit only 3 HRs in his final 28 games. Cano had moved to Seattle; his ISO dropped from .202 to .139, and his groundball and softly hit percentages were career highs.

In the case of all three of those players, the collapse was somewhat oversold. While all three of them were disappointing and had moments when owners rightfully felt bamboozled, all three of them were still worth owning.

Mixed Signals

There are plenty of signs that Goldschmidt’s struggles have been both legitimate and the product of bad luck. Sometimes the one brings the other, but it’s difficult to decipher the order. If you’ve watched Goldschmidt play at all this season, you’ve probably seen signs of a man frustrated by the current state of the world. Here are a handful of peripherals that could be useful in making sense of what is going on:

Unfortunately, the operative word is could. If you’re looking for clear indicators of luck or a demonstrable pattern, you’re going to be disappointed. There are positive indicators here: Goldschmidt is hitting fewer grounders, which should equal more extra-base hits. Moreover, his barrels/PA is closer to his strong 2017 season than his somewhat disappointing 2016 season. As of writing this, he is exactly behind Jose Ramirez, who has 18 HR to Goldschmidt’s eight.

On the other hand, there are plenty of reasons for concern. Goldschmidt’s K% and SwSt% have now increased for three years straight. His soft-hit% is up. His average exit velocity, even on balls in the air is down. For what it’s worth, many of those drops look similar to the changes in batted-ball profiles since the installation of the humidor at Chase Field.

It does appear Goldschmidt is dealing with the type of transition Justin Verlander had to make in 2014. To some extent, it’s the type of transition that McCutchen, Cano, and Cabrera all had to make. It’s probably partially tied to age. It may be tied to team composition, the introduction of the humidor, some undisclosed minor-injury, or other combination of factors.

Rest-of-Season Profile

Goldschmidt’s floor looks like a worse version of his 2016 season. His current .192 ISO matches that season, and his xwOBA isn’t that far off from it. Think Eric Hosmer. Goldschmidt’s floor would mean mediocre power for a first baseman, modest improvements in his average and RBI production, while everything else remains similar to his current output. His ceiling brings him back to 30 HR power and something like a .294 batting average.

Already, Goldschmidt’s numbers have started to rebound with four homers in the last two weeks. His BABIP since May 1 is a mere .188, while he’s managed to bat .154 during that period. It’s possible that he’s made whatever adjustment he needed to make and simply been unlucky for a few weeks. If either the power or plate discipline has eroded, we’ll likely see that reflected in the BABIP, but not to the extent of dropping his BABIP that low. In this case, it’s a strong indicator that the batting average should rebound above at least .260.

Currently, Goldschmidt is going for a huge range of returns. I’ve seen deals of Goldschmidt for Joey Gallo or Aaron Hicks straight up. And I’ve seen him as the core of deals for Betts, Sale, and Scherzer. I would be looking at Goldschmidt as Matt Olson at the start of the season, but with a greater likelihood of finishing as a top-five first baseman. It seems unlikely the batting average and OBP will recover to 2017 levels, but the power is there, and there is at least some ability to steal bases. Just remember that last year was his worst caught stealing rate in a while.

Trade Value Around the Diamond

C - Low End: J.T. Realmuto, High End: Gary Sanchez
Realmuto deserves more credit than he gets, but he has the burden of being a catcher and of being a catcher in Miami. Despite those handicaps, he’s still managed to be a valuable member of fantasy squads. Sanchez is another player who appears to be a disappointment. There are more indicators of sheer bad luck for Sanchez though, so it makes an interesting exchange.

1B - Low End: Jesus Aguilar, High End: Jose Abreu
Aguilar is found money. Selling him for Goldschmidt is an act of skepticism about Aguilar’s current performance and optimism about Goldschmidt’s future. To be fair, Aguilar was a useful player last year, and he appears to have improved this year. The only major concern is whether his pull-happy tendencies will catch up with him and leave him exposed. I saw a Goldschmidt for Abreu trade straight up. I don’t fully understand it for the player selling Abreu, but we do know what Jose Abreu’s ceiling is, and it isn’t Goldschmidt’s ceiling.

2B - Low End: Brian Dozier, High End: Cesar Hernandez
Brian Dozier is having a less-extreme version of Goldschmidt’s season. He’s been an absolute disappointment, but owners weren’t expecting a strong batting average or a player who would carry their team, just one who would produce more than he has. And like Goldschmidt, Dozier has hit for more power in the last week, so he also could be improving his market value. Cesar Hernandez might be the worst sell-high option on the list. He probably caps out as a top-50 player, but as one of those sneaky, Dee Gordon or Lorenzo Cain-type players. There are demonstrable improvements in his peripherals, and the production numbers aren’t that different from last year except that there’s been an uptick in playing time and correlating uptick in counting stats.

SS – Low End: Trevor Story or Xander Bogaerts, High End: Trea Turner
It seems unfathomable that managers would sell Goldschmidt for Story who is a 3rd or 4th tier shortstops, but that’s the state of the world. Xander Bogaerts might be the third best SS in the league, but he has to stay on the field. Didi Gregorius is an interesting bad-luck-BABIP victim who will probably get swapped in for Goldschmidt. Trea Turner is similar except that Turner has been a somewhat frustrating rather than a Goldschmidt-size disappointment.

3B – Nick Castellanos, Alex Bregman, and Eugenio Suarez
Third base is a mess right now, and I have no idea which of these three players constitutes buying low on Goldschmidt or selling high. I am probably most in on Castellanos’ upside, but Bregman’s floor looks like a replica of his excellent 2017. Eugenio Suarez looks like a 2017 Tavis Shaw. Make of that what you will.

OF - Low End: David Peralta, High End: Andrew Benintendi or Michael Brantley
If I hadn’t seen the trade with my own eyes, I would have thought Goldschmidt’s trading floor was at least David Peralta who has demonstrated a greater ability to stay on the field than Aaron Hicks, but apparently, it’s Hicks. Pirates teammates Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte are interesting low and high conversation pieces in here. Dickerson’s performance has been quite good and comes with a cozy .313 BA. Starling Marte represents something closer to a good return for Goldschmidt, but injury has dampened his numbers so it will look more like an equal trade. Benintendi just had a great weak, so that trade may be impossible, and owners looking to sell Goldschmidt might have to aim for Michael Brantley whose brand has been tarnished even though he could equal or outperform Benintendi.

SP - Low End: David Price or Tyson Ross High End: Noah Syndergaard or Clayton Kershaw
David Price has been a constant frustration for owners this season. Tyson Ross has been a pleasant surprise. Sell the brand or the numbers, depending on the target owner. I also like Kyle Gibson and Michael Wacha here as they’re likely outperforming right now. Wacha’s value is probably at an absolute high right after his near no-hitter. If you’re looking to sell Goldschmidt, I’d target a panicked Kershaw or Syndergaard owner. If you’re looking for someone healthy, Nick Pivetta or Patrick Corbin might be available.

RP - Low End: Brad Hand, High End: Edwin Diaz
Standard Disclaimer: Trading for closers is fraught with problems, and I don’t recommend it. Trading away closers can be quite profitable.

A Final Note

My best guess is that Goldschmidt ends the year as a top-100 player. It might take him two months to get there, or he could heat up and put himself in the top-100 by the end of next week. It’s worth remembering that even in Verlander’s case, he was miserable in 2014 and didn’t rebound until 2015. In this case, I think we’re looking at a situation most like Andrew McCutchen’s 2016 season. It’s a disappointment to owners, but he’s a guy worth having on your roster regardless of his name, history, or potential.

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