Trading Up - Mike Trout

It is universally understood among fantasy managers that Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. There was some speculation about Trout versus Mookie Betts earlier this year, and a few articles before the 2017 season about Betts or Jose Altuve as alternative number one picks.

Many analysts offer the guidance that you never want to trade away the best player in a deal. Since Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, managers should never trade him away. That position is probably too extreme. Mike Trout is singular, but it’s not impossible to turn a profit by trading him away, just extraordinarily difficult.

Before starting my research, I expected that Mike Trout is almost never traded. However, as I’ve written this article, I’ve realized Mike Trout is traded away far more often than I expected and nearly all of those trades undervalue him.

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An Average Hall of Famer

The arguments about Altuve and Betts challenging Trout as the most valuable player in fantasy baseball are entertaining, but they have less and less merit as the 2018 season continues. To illustrate how dominant Mike Trout has been, here are four real baseball facts.

1) As Jay Jaffe wrote earlier this year, Mike Trout is 26 years old and has already achieved a career WAR of 61.1, better than the 57.9 WAR of the average Hall of Fame centerfielder.

2) By the end of next season, Mike Trout will probably have about 275 home runs and 200 stolen bases. There are only two active players with more than 200 home runs and 200 stolen bases, Ryan Braun and Ian Kinsler. Both of them achieved that feat when they were 34. Each is an excellent player in his own right. Mike Trout will likely be 27 when he reaches that landmark.

3) Currently, Mike Trout has a career OPS+ of 175. That puts him right between Roger Hornsby (175) and Mickey Mantle (172). The closest active player is Joey Votto (157).

4) Fangraphs’ Off statistic is essentially a metric of how many runs a player has generated through his batting and baserunning skills compared to a replacement player. Since 2015, Mike Trout has earned a mark of 225.7. Joey Votto is second with 170.4. Paul Goldschmidt is third with 147.3. Since 2015, Mike Trout has effectively been the offensive equivalent of Joey Votto and Buster Posey (54.6) combined, except that he needed only one spot in the lineup rather than two.

Methodology

Given Trout’s unique and extraordinary abilities, it seems necessary to take a clinical approach in evaluating him. When comparing top-tier players, it can be difficult to evaluate the differences between the best player and the fifth-best player. If you aren’t interested in the methods I used, feel free to skip these next two paragraphs, but consider reading the final paragraph in this section. It addresses the problematic nature of a two-for-one trade.

To establish player values, I used Fangraphs’ auction calculator for the 2016, 2017, and 2018 seasons. For 2018, I used the season-to-date value and added it to the updated Steamer rest-of-season projection. For the player value, I used the standard 60/40 split for the batting-pitching ratio. For each player, I averaged those three seasons to establish a base value. Then I compared those to Mike Trout’s value over that same period. I then pulled their highest value of those three seasons and used that as a ceiling for their potential value in comparison to Trout’s best performance across those three seasons. For Trout, that was 2018. My strategy here was to create something akin to ceiling and floor values for these players. The base value works better than simply using their worst year because many of the players have some specific circumstance that prompted their “worst” season, such as Giancarlo Stanton’s injury issues in 2016 or the fact that 2016 was Francisco Lindor’s first full year in the majors. The approach still treats health and injury as a trackable attribute, but not one that defines a player’s floor. Hence the averaged value of the three seasons as a base, and their best season as a ceiling.

I then averaged out the two comparisons and prorated the difference for the remainder of this season. Prorating the difference made the numbers comparable to the rest-of-season projections from Steamer. That provides a relatively direct strategy to fill the value gap between Mike Trout and the primary trade target. For instance: There is a $10.59 difference in value between Mike Trout and Joey Votto, so we fill that by adding Ronald Acuna whom Steamer projects to be worth another $10.40 this season. Effectively, the difference in player value between Trout and the primary target is prorated for the remainder of the season so it directly corresponds to the Steamer ROS projections, which are on the final sheet of my data.

You can see the full data with the following links: Original Excel File; Google Sheets version.

The method assumes that the Trout owner has been using a player with a zero or negative value and will no longer use that player. That’s not necessarily going to be the case. For instance, right now, Steamer projects Adam Ottavino, Brett Cecil, and Matt Barnes as $0.00 value players. Those players aren’t rostered on most teams. It’s more likely that the second player will displace someone like an erratic Kyle Schwarber ($4.60 ROS) from the lineup. To improve his team, the owner who is trading away Trout needs to replace both Trout and Schwarber’s combined values. That complication is why so many analysts argue that you never trade away the best player in a deal.

Mike Trout and the Contenders

Here are the data for Trout’s 5x5 fantasy value compared to the 17 other players I’d consider as the primary target in any deal involving him. There are no catchers or relief pitchers because none seemed an appropriate target as the primary player in exchange for Trout. Additionally, Jose Ramirez is tagged as a second baseman because he still retains eligibility in so many leagues, and there were no other viable second basemen beyond Jose Altuve.

Of the 17 other players I evaluated, only six had a season where their best fantasy value was more Mike Trout’s 2016-2018 base. Mike Trout’s worst season, 2017 when he only played 114 games, is better than the average of eight of those 17 players.

Trout’s 2018 $58.00 is currently his best. Since 2017, only Corey Kluber has offered fantasy managers more value with his superb 2017 season($59.40). The next closest value on the chart is Charlie Blackmon’s 2017 ($57.50), followed by Betts in 2016 ($53.40) and Scherzer in 2018 ($55.50). All three of the pitchers have been relatively durable and exceptionally good. If hitters and pitchers were weighted 50/50, the four pitchers on the chart would have had stronger numbers compared to Trout. Even with the 60/40 split, Max Scherzer has still been a more valuable player than Mike Trout. That outcome is illuminating in its own right and speaks to Scherzer’s ongoing excellence.

Excepting Max Scherzer, each of these players would need a significant player to make the exchange even. With a few exceptions, the secondary targets are players who are likely to go in the fourth to tenth rounds next year. We’re talking about players like Blake Snell, Ozzie Albies, and Jean Segura. These are substantial assets necessary to make the exchange even.

Trout’s excellent contributions to all five offensive categories are what distinguish him from almost every other player on the list. Look at the second sheet in the spreadsheet for an illustration of this. Almost every other player has at least one category in which that player hurts the team. Mike Trout does not do that. He makes a substantive positive contribution in each category. His only red mark is his RBI total from 2017 when Trout lacked the volume to help his team in that category. In this capacity, only Mookie Betts truly compares to Trout. If Blackmon were still stealing bases at the same clip, he would rival Trout and Betts. Jose Ramirez also demonstrates this depth, but he lacks the track record, and his values tend to be very good rather than excellent, though 2018 may change that for him.

Trade Value Around the Diamond

Again, there are are no catcher or closer options because there are no catchers or closers I’d consider as the core of a trade involving Mike Trout. Each of these trades is designed to be a relative push that tilts ever so slightly towards the returning players. The value of the second player is based off their simple Steamer ROS projections. However, we’re only using those projections as reference points rather than a formula to establish absolutely equal value.

I've listed the players below by the position of the primary target, though I've included the secondary target in the headings as well.

1B – Joey Votto with Ronald Acuna; Paul Goldschmidt with Ozzie Albies

These pairs are similar. Each includes a consistent, top-tier veteran and a young player with significant upside. Votto offers the advantage of absolute consistency. He’s never bad. Sometimes he is only good. This season projects to be his worst year since 2012. However, there’s no clear injury issue as there was in 2012, just Votto doing Votto things: getting on base at a .427 clip and slugging .459. He currently has only eight HRs on the year, but I’m wagering he’ll ratchet that up to at least 25 by the end of the season. Meanwhile, Acuna offers the tantalizing potential of Troutian five-category contribution.

Paul Goldschmidt struggled to start this season, but he’s bounced back, and already his player rating has started to climb towards his expected range. Don’t be surprised if his final numbers look much like 2017 but with fewer steals and a slightly lower average. Albies offers similar five-category potential to Acuna. Albies is currently only batting .258, but his .270 BABIP indicates he’s due for some positive regression, and even his current .258 is tolerable.

2B – Jose Altuve with Justin Turner; Jose Ramirez with Gerrit Cole
These two trades might be upside plays in exchange for Trout, especially given that Steamer is relatively cool on both Turner and Cole. The Altuve and Turner deal is less attractive in my opinion because both players seem destined to underperform their ceilings and to play closer to their base values. Altuve is generating both fewer HRs and SBs. That may simply be the randomness of a baseball season, but he’s also at the age when many players steal fewer bases. Likewise, injury complications and age pose trouble for Turner. He’s still a good player, but don’t bank on a return to his 2017 performance level.

After Betts and Trout, Jose Ramirez is the best five-category player here. His player-value chart shows RBI and HR production as weaknesses, but he’s put those issues to rest this year, knocking 23 HRs and 52 RBIs. Steamer remains skeptical of the HR production, but not the RBIs and general power. In OPS leagues, Ramirez deserves to be in the same conversation as Trout and Betts. Pairing him with Gerrit Cole feels steep, but it works because neither player has the history of the other players on this list. Remember that Cole finished last season with a 4.26 ERA. When Pittsburgh traded him away, most Pirates fans were disappointed but felt the team got great value for a pitcher who was clearly not an ace. The consensus has changed, but that doesn’t mean Cole or Ramirez gets valued the same way as Betts or Verlander.

3B – Nolan Arenado with Blake Snell; Freddie Freeman with Joey Votto; Kris Bryant with Jose Abreu
All three of these trades offer attractive value for Trout. With a 150 wRC+, Nolan Arenado is on pace to have his best season ever, and Blake Snell is breaking out as a top-tier starter. Despite Snell’s gaudy 2.48 ERA, owners shouldn’t see him as a bonafide SP1 yet. His FIP and xFIP both indicate some regression back towards 3.5 ERA, but a 3.5 ERA, 200 Ks, and 16 Ws is a tremendous floor value.

The Freeman and Votto exchange offers the best name brands for Trout, and there have to be some leagues where both those players were taken in the first round. That seems like a recipe for winning a trade where you trade away Mike Trout. This trade follows the formula by treating Freeman as the primary target and Votto as the secondary piece. Steamer’s ROS projection shorts Joey Votto due to his eight HRs this year. Freddie Freeman’s values are down because he has two injured seasons since 2015 and his counting stat totals look more pedestrian.

Kris Bryant and Jose Abreu might offer the most boring pair on the list. However, those two players seem like a lock to combine for 50 HRs, 200 Rs, 200 RBI, and 1,200 PA of a .285 BA. That kind of value is about 20% of the way to winning offensive categories in many leagues. I did see a Bryant and Trea Turner for Mike Trout trade in my research, and that’s a better value than this one because of Turner’s elite steals and respectable power.

SS – Manny Machado with Michael Brantley; Francisco Lindor with Edwin Diaz; Carlos Correa with Luis Severino
Machado and Brantley offer a pair with a potentially higher offensive ceiling than any of the previous three sets, but that is contingent on Brantley staying healthy. To some extent, it is buying high on Brantley. However, the talent has always been there; it’s simply whether he can stay on the field. Even if Brantley misses some time, the pair could offer Trout’s production and Machado, like Arenado, is an annual MVP candidate himself.

Taking a closer in a trade for Mike Trout seems foolhardy, but I detailed the argument for Diaz’s value last week, and Francisco Lindor’s 2018 campaign has only assured us that his 2017 season was wholly legitimate. Lindor could go 30-20 while racking up Rs and RBI in Cleveland’s robust lineup. Meanwhile, Diaz approximates the stability and performance of a Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman but without the extreme price of those players.

Correa was almost dropped from this list until I saw that Severino was a suitable partner for him. The combo struck me as particularly interesting. Severino is poised to compete for the Cy Young and Correa offers Acuna-like potential but with three seasons of excellent performance as a pedigree. Keep in mind that Correa’s 2017 performance looked much like Mike Trout’s but without the speed. Moreover, in his last 162 games, Correa has 35 HRs, 118 Rs, 128 RBI, and a .306 BA. By giving up a few HRs and Mike Trout’s speed, you also get Luis Severino. That’s a solid exchange.

OF – Mookie Betts with Jon Lester; Giancarlo Stanton with Miles Mikolas; Charlie Blackmon with Scooter Gennett
Mookie Betts has been close enough to Mike Trout that there continue to be debates about who is more likely to finish the season as the top-ranked player. Those arguments hinge on Betts having missed time on the DL and consequently lacking Trout’s volume so far. Betts offers strong contributions in every offensive category, so the inclusion of Lester is a modest balancing of the scales. Don’t misunderstand Lester’s role here. The 2.10 ERA will regress towards his 4.10 FIP. Lester is not likely to be an SP2. He is an SP4 who could be a bit better than that. Joe Musgrove was the other name I considered here. Consider that when you’re evaluating Jon Lester’s value.

Believe it or not, despite all of Stanton’s struggles and injury issues, he still projects as more valuable than Betts for the rest of the season. 59-HR potential will do that for you. Despite that ROS projection, Stanton’s floor is hurt by his 2016 season when he missed time and hit only .240. Miles Mikolas continues to be undervalued, and though he lacks Severino’s strikeouts, he offers a performance nearly as compelling.

One thing I’ve learned from this article is that Charlie Blackmon is still underrated and that the projections systems still don’t believe in Scooter Gennett. Blackmon is the only player whose best season compares most directly to Trout’s ceiling. However, Blackmon no longer steals bases the way he used to. Gennett has been a multi-position godsend for many owners. He’s generating more hard-hit balls and hitting fewer ground balls than ever. His plate discipline numbers also indicate a continued evolution in his approach. Gennett’s xwOBA does not inspire confidence, but he’s clearly doing something different the last two years, and he may simply be one of those players who defy the projection assumptions for xStats.

SP – Max Scherzer with Mitch Moreland; Corey Kluber with Andrew Heaney; Chris Sale with Jean Segura
If you want to trade Mike Trout for Max Scherzer straight up, the data suggests you can do that and still win the trade. I wouldn’t recommend it, but for the last three seasons, Mike Trout and Max Scherzer have been equally phenomenal. However, since it is justified to ask for a sweetener, target someone like Mitch Moreland, a bad-name, but improved-performance player. Forget his name. You aren’t acquiring Mitch Moreland, former Texas Ranger. You are acquiring the cleanup hitter for the fourth-best offense in baseball. Add Moreland and Scherzer, and it should provide a sneaky winning deal so long as Boston doesn’t acquire a platoon bat to pair with Moreland. Scherzer’s three-year base exceeds Mike Trout’s. You can argue that the only reason Trout’s numbers are below Scherzer’s is due to his 2017 injury. True, but that is also how the game gets played.

Corey Kluber is the only player with a single-year performance greater than Trout’s 2018 numbers. His struggles in 2016 seem a long way off. Here are his stats from the last calendar year: 243 IP, 285 Ks, 1.89 ERA, and a 0.79 WHIP. Kluber is still regarded as an inferior pitcher to others in larger markets, but those numbers indicate a player making an argument to be the best player in the game. Heaney has been quite good this year, and the word isn’t entirely out on his legitimacy as a potential SP3. Trading away Trout would be a huge offensive blow, but a trade that brought Kluber and Heaney back would overhaul the rotation for any fantasy team.

Chris Sale is an excellent player in his own right, but his base and ceiling values pale in comparison to Kluber and Scherzer as well as Trout. Pair him with Jean Segura, who looks poised to challenge for the batting title and will replace Trout’s Rs and SBs. Segura has cooled off a bit in the last week, but he still offers real value at SS, and the Mariners offense is good enough to allow Segura to accumulate 100 Rs and 95 RBI.

Clayton Kershaw’s injury issues kept him out of the original version of this article. Lingering concerns prevent me from recommending him as the primary target in a trade. However, if you’re feeling brave and in need of a boost, Kershaw and Daniel Murphy, who just came alive with a 3-for-4 game, could be an upside trade, but frankly, I’d aim for a higher floor.

A Final Note

Let’s go back to the start here. Fantasy owners should probably be trying to buy Mike Trout rather than sell him. The truism about wanting to acquire the best player in any deal is still good guidance. Trout was undervalued in nearly every trade I analyzed last week. Undoubtedly some of those trades involved keeper situations, unique league settings, or some other mitigating factor, but it can’t be all of them, and given the number of keeper and dynasty leagues, it not likely to be the majority. In summation, I’ll default to the meme: Mike Trout is good at baseball. You should probably try to trade for him. If you need to trade him away, the deals above seem like good starting points.

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