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Fantasy baseball hitter streamers and starts for Week 4. Hitters to add from the waiver wire and stream. Justin analyzes the top batter streamers to pickup.
When will the offense pick back up? At the moment, the league-wide OPS is just .675. Meanwhile, home runs have become much more scarce this season, leading to a lot of lower-scoring affairs. Whether it's the baseball, the effect of humidors being in every stadium, or hitters needing to get back up to speed, runs are difficult to come by right now.
Fantasy baseball teams are built through the draft, but an argument can be made that leagues are won through in-season management. Being able to leverage your lineups appropriately so that you are starting the players who are a) playing in the most games and b) are in the most favorable matchups will allow accumulating as many statistics as possible, regardless of league format.
One common way to create the optimal lineup is streaming hitters off of the fantasy baseball waiver wire. It is very common to pick up pitchers who have favorable matchups, but what about doing the same for hitters? Outside of batting average, the other four traditional 5x5 hitter categories are counting statistics, meaning that you can gain a legitimate edge by targeting undervalued hitters on the waiver wire you have the best opportunity to produce. That is the focus of this column. Every week, we will be taking a look at which hitters are the most valuable streaming assets off of the waiver wire. All of these players are under 50% owned in Yahoo leagues, yet could be premium contributors for the upcoming week. Who are these intriguing fantasy baseball streamers? Let us dive right into it!
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What Teams Offer The Most Streaming Value?
When it comes to streaming hitters, outside of overall talent, there are three factors to pay attention to:
- How many games is that team playing this week? Obviously, playing in the most games gives you the most opportunity to rack up the counting statistics we are looking for. Six games are the standard for a week, with anything above that very enticing and anything below that worrisome.
- What parks are they playing at? There is a major difference between playing your games in Colorado and playing your games in Oakland when it comes to offensive success. Targeting players who will benefit from playing in hitter-friendly targets is a great way to gain an edge over your opponents. For this study, we will be using Baseball Savant's park factors to rank the friendliness of the stadiums each team is playing at for this upcoming week.
- Which pitchers are they facing? To calculate the strength of the opponent, we will be using Fangraphs Depth Chart's ERA projections for each starting pitcher they will face.
By taking the average park factor and projected opposing starting pitcher ERA for each of their games, and then adding a boost based on the game played, we can accurately measure the "friendliness" of each team's upcoming matchups. Speaking of which, it is time for the great reveal!
Any time the Rockies play a series at home, they are likely to show up on this list. Meanwhile, the Angels continue to have a favorable schedule, as do the Nationals. Unfortunately, with Taylor Ward (55% Yahoo rostership) gaining steam and Washington having more of a top-heavy lineup, it is difficult to find streamers from those two teams.
I would say this is a more difficult week to find viable streaming options than last week. Part of this is due to players starting the season off strong getting more recognition, but this is a week where a lot of subpar offenses feature near the top of this list. Despite this, though, there are plenty of hitter streamers to target this week!
Brandon Marsh, OF, Los Angeles Angels
42% rostered
Wow! In one week, Brandon Marsh went from 15% rostered to 42% rostered! It's great to see an ascending young player getting the recognition he deserves for an Angels team that is playing well right now.
Highlighted last week as a former well-regarded prospect cited as having strong on-base skills, speed, and growing power, Marsh has continued to have a second-year breakout this season. His swinging-strike rate (12%) has gone up almost three percentage points since last week, but those concerns are mitigated by his propensity to run a high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For perspective, ZiPs has him projected for a .351 BABIP, and he has always been a player to run high BABIPs in the minors based on his quality of contact.
It's hard for me to imagine's Marsh's current power production (.209 isolated power/ISO) stays intact with a modest 6.1% barrel rate. That being said, even with baked-in regression, the quality of contact is strong enough to expect him to exceed his power projections, allowing him to at least develop into an average hitter all-around; perhaps he won't have a strength, but he also won't have a weakness to be concerned about.
Most importantly, though, the Angels play seven games this week, and six of them are against right-handed starting pitchers. Meanwhile, he'll get to play at Fenway Park, the most-friendly ballpark for left-handed hitters, per Baseball Savant, as well as a home series at Angels Stadium, the ninth most-friendly ballpark. Faxing an overall subpar group of pitchers (Red Sox, Nationals) in favorable ballparks, the run environment should be strong, and Marsh should benefit from hitting in the thick of the Angels lineup.
By this time next week, Marsh likely will not qualify for this list, so make sure to grab him now! If something goes wrong, you can easily move on, but he can be someone you could hold onto for the whole season. It's very nice to see the Angels starting to finally have the deeper lineup around Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani that we have been waiting for. Now, get them to the postseason!
Gio Urshela, 3B/SS, Minnesota Twins
38% rostered
Another previous member of the hitter streamer list, Gio Urshela was at one point a well-above-average offensive producer for the Yankees. After a rough season (96 weighted-runs-created-plus/wRC+), he was traded to the Twins and certainly was not coveted in fantasy drafts. So far, though, he's getting the initial laugh.
At his peak, Urshela was a hitter who made a lot of contact, thus making him an asset when it comes to batting average. Last season, though, he struggled much more in that regard (24.7% K), which was the main reason for the decrease in success. So far in 2022, though, his swinging-strike rate is down three percentage points to 9.7%, while his strikeout rate is down to an absurdly low 10.5%. That will not maintain intact, but the early indications are that the 2019-2020 version of Urshela is back in full force.
Sure, Urshela's .061 ISO is quite poor, but he is also due for a major positive regression with an unsustainably low 7.1% home run/fly ball rate to go along with his 6.8% barrel rate. In the end, you're getting a player who should be a plus in batting average while hitting in the middle of the Twins lineup, which is quite beneficial, especially for this week.
Is there anything you could ask for that to have seven games against the Orioles and A's pitching staffs? Overall, only Frankie Montas is a projected starter that the Twins will face with a Fangraphs Depth Charts projected ERA under 4.40, which is great news for an offense that has been on the rise as of late (fourth-highest wRC+ in the past week). Add in the corner infield/middle infield eligibility, and Urshela should be a player that is a great fit for all fantasy teams!
Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets
32% rostered
If you're like me, and root for players who seem who generally enjoy themselves, then Brandon Nimmo is perfect for you! Is there ever a time when the Mets outfielder isn't smiling during a baseball game? I haven't seen it yet!
Seven-game weeks are fun and all, but what about an eight-game week? That's exactly what the Mets will have this upcoming week. While that is brutal for their bullpen, it is great news for fantasy managers of Mets players! After all, four of the five hitting categories are cumulative stats, so the more games, the better.
Frankly, I'm quite surprised Brandon Nimmo is only rostered in 32% of Yahoo leagues. For starters, he's the lead-off hitter for the third-best offense in baseball based on wRC+. Just based on that, he should be rostered in more leagues. However, he is also a very talented hitter in his own right.
The greatest development of Nimmo's skillset has been him being able to hit for more contact. With an 8.3% swinging-strike rate this season, he is continuing that trend, which should allow him to remain the asset in the batting average he's been over the past two years. For what it's worth, at 45 batted balls, he is near the point where the barrel rate starts to stabilize, and he's boasting an 11.1% barrel rate. While that should come down to earth for his standards, it's looking like last year's power outage (.145 ISO) was a blip in the road.
With eight games, the lead-off spot in a strong lineup, and tremendous on-base skills, Nimmo is line to score a tremendous amount of runs this week, in addition to continuing to be a plus in batting average. Add in average power, and there is a lot to like here. In points leagues or OBP leagues, he should have been picked up yesterday, but there is time to get his roster% higher. Let's will it into existence!
Elias Diaz, C, Colorado Rockies
27% rostered
Generally, you will see a lot of outfielders appear as viable streaming options and for good reason- it is the deepest position. What you will not generally see, however, are catchers. Well, we are here to buck that trend today!
There are many different strategies for addressing the catcher position for fantasy baseball managers. Some will prefer to take on of the "elite" options, seeing a notable drop-off after that. Some, on the other hand, will wait till the end of the draft to take one, employing a streaming strategy for the whole season.
If the latter is your strategy, Elias Diaz is perfect for you this week, and potentially moving forward as well. I mean, any time that you can get a catcher with a 17% strikeout rate and a 9.5% barrel rate, and that isn't surprising, then you should probably pounce on it. Yet, that's exactly who Diaz is!
Especially at a time when the batting average is down, getting a .250+ batting average from your catcher is a tremendous bonus, especially when it comes with power. I do wish we'd see him get even more playing time rather than sharing some games with Dom Nunez, but how many catchers are the "clear guy" right now? The quality Diaz provides when he's out there beats some of those other concerns, especially at the catcher position.
This week, Colorado starts off with a three-game series at home against a subpar Rockies lineup, before traveling to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks. While Arizona isn't the optimal run environment, the weakness of the pitching staff helps make up for it. Any time you can stream a catcher with this skillset and upcoming schedule, you have to pounce on that opportunity!
Max Kepler, OF, Minnesota Twins
20% rostered
The offense may be down, but Max Kepler certainly hasn't gotten the memo! Side note: Kepler is the only active player from Germany, which is really cool. Do you know what else is cool? How Kepler is playing right now.
Currently, Kepler has an extremely low 6.7% swinging-strike rate and has combined that with a 13% barrel rate. Meanwhile, not only is he chasing at fewer pitches in the zone (17.8%), but he also is swinging at more pitches in the zone (72.4%). Obviously, it is still very early in the season, but if there are two measures of play that stabilize very quickly, it is plate discipline and power.
Case in point, Kepler is on a roll right now, and I'm inclined to buy into it. He's never going to give you a strong batting average as long as the shift is in play, but he's bringing the boom in terms of power, and a .240 batting average isn't as bad as it once was. Oh, and he's also hitting right in the middle of Minnesota's lineup, increasing his RBI value.
In a seven-game week where the Twins will face the second-highest projected ERA, Kepler is in line to keep on producing. Now, he's even starting against lefties, which takes off a major red flag from his profile! This is a week where you want to roster Twins hitters, and it's particularly a time to roster Kepler, who could easily become more rostered in a hurry. It's time to Max out for that extra power.
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