RADIO
The Regression Monster Cometh
While it isn’t an end-all, be-all stat – because those don’t exist – FIP is a much better tool for analyzing pitchers and predicting future performance than raw ERA. Case in point: In the past three seasons, the 10 pitchers who outperformed the FIP by the highest margins saw their ERA increase by two-thirds of a run on average in the following season. That includes the four pitchers out of that group of 30 who actually managed to lower their ERA. Strip them out, and the average increase is 0.86.
Some pitchers are able to outperform their FIP regularly due to a variety of factors, but most don’t. So it’s instructive to look at ERA-FIP as a useful guidepost for anticipating regression.
The following five pitchers are good bets for a downturn in 2015.
Doug Fister (SP, WAS)
No qualified starter enjoyed a larger gap between his ERA (2.41) and FIP (3.92) last season than Doug Fister. He did shave his already outstanding walk rate, but virtually every other indicator went in the wrong direction. His K% dipped below 15 percent, and he allowed more homers while inducing fewer ground balls. Moving to the NL with a much better defensive team behind him masked these declines, as did an inflated strand rate. Don’t bet on a repeat performance.
Johnny Cueto (SP, CIN)
Look, Johnny Cueto’s obviously a good pitcher. You don’t post sub-3.00 ERAs four consecutive years without talent. But there are too many red flags here. He threw 244 innings last year. He has a checkered injury history. The jump in his strikeout rate simply isn’t supported by any of the underlying numbers. Coming off a career year, he’s being drafted like a top-10 pitcher. It’s hard to imagine he’ll live up to that billing.
Shelby Miller (SP, ATL)
Hoo boy. After an impressive rookie season in which he won 15 games and struck out nearly a batter an inning, Shelby Miller slumped in a big way last year. The whiff rate plummeted and the walk rate rose. A late season surge made his overall numbers look a lot more palatable, but his FIP still checked in at a thoroughly uninspiring 4.54. The Cardinals promptly sent him to Atlanta in the Jason Heyward trade. At the risk of falling victim to an appeal to authority, the St. Louis front office’s track record generally suggests they know what they’re doing. Miller’s still young, and he was a top prospect for a reason. But the team around him isn’t likely to be much help and it’s tough to forget how lost he looked for most of last season.
Danny Duffy (SP, KC)
After years of injury problems and ineffectiveness, Danny Duffy finally broke through, showing improved control while posting a 2.53 ERA in just under 150 innings. Unfortunately for he and the Royals, that number isn’t really reflective of the quality of his work. The drop in walks was accompanied by an even more pronounced decrease in strikeouts, and he’s unlikely to maintain a .239 BABIP moving forward. Then consider that Duffy averaged less than six innings per start and, thanks to a cracked rib late in the year, still hasn’t made it through a full season with his health intact. He proved last year that he can be a serviceable back-end starter, but he doesn’t really belong on your fantasy roster.
Jered Weaver (SP, LAA)
Jered Weaver is one of those lucky few who has made a career out of outperforming his FIP, but his ERA has still risen each of the last four seasons. And as his velocity continues its descent into Jamie Moyer territory, it seems reasonable to expect the bottom to fall out one of these years. Weaver’s name value and shiny 18-win campaign last year likely mean he’ll cost a lot more than he’s worth to acquire. Let someone else make that mistake.
