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Five Undervalued Shortstops for 2015
So you've had a great draft, taking the best player available in each round. You are reasonably certain you will contend in all categories, and then you remember that you still need to fill a SS and MIF slot and it is Round 17. Ugh.
While shortstop can be a challenging position to fill for teams both real and Fantasy, there is value to be had even here in the later rounds. Investing in the players listed below should accomplish two things: A profit relative to their draft cost, and a lack of nausea when you look at the position in July.
Alcides Escobar - SS, Kansas City Royals (ADP: 185)
Apparently you can take advantage of the small market KC discount even after they make it to Game 7 of the World Series. Escobar was a reliable three category contributor in 2014, recording a .285 average, 31 SB against only 6 CS, and a healthy 74 runs scored. If Spring is any indication, Ned Yost appears to be interested in continuing to bat his SS leadoff. That will give him more Runs and more PAs, allowing his average to really make an impact for a Fantasy team. Escobar has essentially the skill set of Texas SS Elvis Andrus, a player taken 60 picks on average before him (122.8 ADP), even outproducing him last year.
Escobar's only flaw is a terrible .234 average in 2013, perhaps causing Fantasy owners to worry that the average and associated runs will drop off in 2015. This does not seem likely. In 2013, Escobar posted a below league average BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) that is unlikely for a player with his speed. BABIP is essentially a measurement of how often batted balls become hits, providing a baseline for how luck may have influenced a batter's season.
His .239 mark on groundballs that season was four points shy of the league's average mark and 20 points worse than his career norm. Last year's .291 is high, but Escobar has the speed to sustain the elevated number. His .083 on flies in 2013 was putrid even for a player that has a history of poor flyball BABIPs, and his .136 mark last season, while still below average, is likely sustainable.
Finally, he hit a paltry .555 on line drives two seasons ago, normalizing to .627 last year. This figure is also below average, but there is no reason to think it will drop back down to the .500 range.
Escobar has a history of above average line drive rates going back three years now: 24.2% last season and 23% the two years prior. League average is 21%, and every percentage point matters when the BABIP for liners averages .440 more than any other batted ball type. Escobar's strong 2012 (.293 average) and last year make it clear that 2013 was an aberration not likely to be repeated, as he has the speed, batted ball data, and contact ability (just a 13.4% K rate last season, league average 20.4%) to maintain a high batting average. This makes him an Elvis Andrus at a much more affordable price.
Jed Lowrie - SS, Houston Astros (ADP 327.8)
If you need power from a MI slot, Lowrie is a reasonable choice to attain it. His .249 average and six HR a season ago inspire no one, but his flyballs were particularly unlucky in finding the other side of the fence. His 3.2% HR/FB (how many of his flies go for HR) ratio was literally half of his career 6.4% mark, and should be expected to rise in 2015.
Lowrie is once again suiting up for the Houston Astros, who play in a far better park for power hitting than his previous employer, the Oakland Athletics. In his last full season as an Astro in 2012, Lowrie posted a 11.3% HR/FB rate, which would make a 20 HR campaign a real possibility. Even without an above average rate, Lowrie should hit 15 by the sheer number of balls he puts into the air - 44.3% of his batted balls last year and 46.9% for his career. League average is 35%, so Lowrie has a favorable number of opportunities.
That inclination to hit balls into the air limits his average upside, but it should still improve in 2015. For starters, Lowrie has posted favorable line drive rates for the past two seasons, 23.4% in 2013 and 24.4% last year. Line drives have the highest BABIP of any batted ball type, and Lowrie's .587 mark was nearly a hundred points shy of the league average .686 number. Lowrie's grounders found pay dirt at a .231 clip last year, south of his career .260 rate.
If both figures correct to established norms and he continues to post favorable strike out rates (14% last year), there is no reason he could not hit .260 or so. With a chance at 20 bombs, that has significant value at the end of a draft.
Jose Peraza - SS, Atlanta Braves (ADP 364.8)
If you would like to go prospecting for your middle infield sleeper, this Braves real estate is your best bet. The Braves are not projected to be good this year after trading two thirds of their starting outfield and retaining Melvin Upton's services, so the rebuilding club should want to play its kids. At age 20, Peraza is a promising young stud.
He stole 64 bags in 2013 and 60 across two levels of the minor leagues last year. 15 CS each year does nothing to dampen the enthusiasm, as it gives him better than 80% success rate. If the Braves call him up early enough, Peraza has the speed to go full Billy Hamilton on your team from a 2B, SS, or MI slot instead of the valuable OF slot Hamilton requires.
There is also a chance that Peraza can hit for a reasonable average at the highest level. In 195 PAs at AA last season, Peraza hit a robust .335. While his BABIP was inflated, that is likely sustainable for the young speed merchant. Jumping to the majors will likely cause the average to fall - at least at first - but there may be .250 or so left.
With a middling average and a shot at 50 SB, you'll barely notice the lack of power and mediocre run totals. Dynasty leaguers should target this kid, while those in redraft leagues should remember the name and be ready to pounce as soon as he gets the call.
Everth Cabrera - SS, Baltimore Orioles (ADP 367)
More speed, guaranteed a major league roster spot but not playing time. It would be justified to hate this guy's guts for following up a PED suspension with a bizarre incident allegedly involving marijuana and charges of resisting arrest. But everyone deserves a second chance, right? Cabrera swiped 18 bases last season despite his troubles, and pilfered 37 against 12 CS a year earlier. Going back to his minor league days, Cabrera swiped as many as 73 in one season. Clearly, this man can run.
The BABIP gods did not like Cabrera at all in 2014, a fact that had a lot to do with his disappointing performance last season. He somehow managed an atrocious .032 BABIP on flyballs last season, which almost has to go up mathematically speaking. His .179 career mark is nothing special, but would represent a huge improvement if Cabrera comes anywhere close to it. On liners, his .582 BABIP was also low compared to his career .654 mark.
Perhaps more importantly, Cabrera hits a huge majority of his batted balls on the ground - 66.9% last season and 61.8% for his career. Such a hit spread would destroy any chance at power, but Cabrera has none anyway - his mission in life and in Fantasy is to get on base and steal the next one. His career .241 BABIP on grounders does not seem to take advantage of his wheels, and his average could spike as soon as he learns to use his speed to his BABIP advantage.
Cabrera needs an everyday job in order to accomplish that, and he could find one in Baltimore. Jonathan Schoop is the projected second sacker for the Orioles, which is great for Cabrera because he can play second and Schoop is awful at baseball. Runs should be plentiful in Baltimore, and with an everyday job Cabrera could steal 30, score a lot, and not kill you with his average. Not bad for the last round.
Danny Espinosa - 2B/SS, Washington Nationals (ADP 652)
Remember him? In both 2011 and 2012, Washington's second baseman teased Fantasy owners with 20/20 upside, finishing three SB short in 2011 and three HR shy a year later. Espinosa still has that upside, recording eight of each stat in limited playing time in 2014 (364 PAs). With only one CS, he remains an efficient base thief. With a 12.3% HR/FB rate, he still has above league average (10%) power. There is a reason that there was once talk of benching Ian Desmond and handing his job to Espinosa. He will never hit for a high average (33.5% strikeout rates tend to do that), but 20/20 upside in Round 54(!) is rare.
He currently lacks a gig, but the biggest obstacle in his way is Yunel Escobar. Not to be confused with the Escobar that began this piece, Yunel brings nothing to a baseball team except a glove and an empty batting average. Yunel's glove is for short, but Washington plans to play him at second base, where it may not translate. Espinosa is a Gold Glove caliber 2B. Yunel's empty average has not surfaced since he hit .290 with Toronto in 2011, Espinosa had his skills just last season.
Yunel has caused some of the greatest managers in the history of the game headaches, including future Hall of Famer Bobby Cox. Matt Williams has enough headaches from the playoffs last year. Mike Rizzo thought Escobar was worth a quality set up man. He isn't, and Espinosa should be manning second soon enough. It is not like it'll cost anything to find out.
There is talent at the SS position, though it requires a little digging to find. These sleepers should deliver much of the value you need to win your league, especially in the above scenario where everything else broke just right. If your scenario is not quite that ideal (it rarely is), then check out Rotoballer's sleeper blog to find value at every position on the Fantasy diamond.
