The Baller Ranks: Top 101 Starting Pitchers Weekly Rankings

It's time for the Week 6 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks, where we analyze where the top 101 SPs stand moving forward in this chaotic season. You can check out my weekly Top 101 Relief Pitcher Baller Ranks as well.

David Emerick rolled out an introduction to our Baller Ranks here -- I suggest you read for a full explanation of our purpose, but the TL;DR is here we're providing a one-stop-shop for pitcher and hitter valuation. We'll explore value produced to-date, their current standing, and provide context with analysis.

And for those who want stats like the usual 5x5 categories, strikeout rates, Called + Swinging Strike (CSW) rates, xwOBA, and more on a decked-out spreadsheet, we've got you covered - you can view the full Week 6 Top 101 SP Baller Ranks core sheet here.

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Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 6

Starting Pitcher Movers of Note

Kenta Maeda (SP, Twins): Maeda made headlines last week by taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning against Milwaukee before a bloop single broke up the bid. His .257 xwOBA trails only Shane Bieber and Max Fried(!) among pitchers with more than 100 plate appearances against, though Trevor Bauer would lead them all (he sits at 94 PAs).

Kenta Maeda loses a no-hit bid in the 9th inning

8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER*, 12 K , 2 BB

Have a damn night pic.twitter.com/gbre7FhHAz

— Starting 9 (@Starting9) August 19, 2020

Maeda has enjoyed a .162 BABIP thus far, which doesn’t typically go in step with an elevated 51.3% groundball rate (career 41.4%). While he’s got a career .274 BABIP, he carried a .243 BABIP through 153 ⅔ IP last season (in the DH-less NL, that is). He’s throwing his fastball at a career-low 27.3% clip, throwing his slider 34.2% of the time with the changeup at 31.1%. Everyone’s leaning away from the heat, with Maeda making it No. 3 on his list to great success.

Frankie Montas (SP, Athletics): Montas allowed a painful nine runs on six hits and four walks over 1 ⅔ IP against the D-backs last Tuesday, inflating his ERA to 4.74 in the process. He now has a 5.09 xFIP and 5.14 SIERA with a poor 9.4% K-BB% through 24 ⅔ IP, as two four-walk outings in five tries is not what we want to see. The good news is that his velocity wasn’t down after he was scratched from a previous start due to upper back tightness, but one can’t feel good about the health unless his form improves next time. For now, he falls due to health/mechanical concerns.

Danny Duffy (SP, Royals): Duffy’s enjoying some luck with a .225 BABIP through six starts (29 ⅓ IP) but he’s also trimmed the walks and upped the whiffs. After posting a shoddy 30/14 K/BB ratio in 29 ⅔ IP versus left-handed batters last season, he’s got an early 8/2 K/BB mark in 7 ⅔ IP and looks to be jamming his curve and changeup more often in there. Michael Simione raised how Duffy followed a coach suggestion to move towards the third-base side of the rubber to allow his changeup more space to operate. His 3.83 SIERA is the best we’ve seen since 2016’s 3.53 mark, though we must expect some BABIP give.

Pablo Lopez (SP, Marlins): López hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his four starts thus far, amassing a polished 2.28 FIP and 2.84 xFIP behind the 2.42 ERA. He had some command woes against the Mets on Aug. 9, which is responsible for four of his five free passes on the season thus far. Otherwise, it looks like increased changeup usage is working out very well for him, throwing it the most out of his four-pitch mix.

Pablo Lopez made interesting pitch mix changes. He's throwing his best pitch (changeup) more often. ?
2020: Changeup - 29.5%, 4-Seam - 26.6%, Sinker - 25.4%, Cutter - 11.9%
2019: 4-Seam - 42.4%, Changeup - 22%, Curve - 19.2%, Sinker 16.3% #FantasyBaseball https://t.co/A4xYW7D0MH

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) August 23, 2020

As a result, his 60.3% groundball rate is sixth in the league out of 92 starters with at least 20 innings. Of the 24 pitchers with a >50% GB rate, Pablo’s 14.7% swinging-strike rate is surpassed only by Clayton Kershaw, Shane Bieber, Jacob deGrom, and Luis Castillo. That’s fine company!

Spencer Turnbull (SP, Tigers): Turnbull started red-hot, allowing just four runs through his first three outings en route to two wins with a healthy 18 K’s in 18 innings. But two starts since then have been frightful, with six earned and eight walks against just three strikeouts in 6 ⅔ IP. 

He showed some control issues in his first start of 2020 with four walks, but reeled that in with just three walks over his next two games. The upward trend was encouraging, but four walks in each of his next two starts make for tough sledding. We don’t have a long season to let blips iron themselves out, and Turnbull doesn’t have the stuff to overcome poor control.

Robbie Ray (SP, Diamondbacks): Ray showed something on Aug. 16, limiting the Padres to one run across five innings of no-hit ball. I don’t want to say “progress” because he still walked six, hence the one run on zero hits. And then he turned around and gave up four runs on seven hits and five walks with eight strikeouts over five innings on Aug. 21, which is classic Ray. Having 25 walks in 27 frames is unforgivable, but when that compounds with nine homers (3.0 HR/9) then we really have problems. Every single start so far has been littered in red flags and even the big K’s that came with iffy command before are down, with a swinging-strike rate sinking to 11.3% from 13.6% in ‘19. It’s not worth the madness anymore.

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