The Baller Ranks: Top 101 Starting Pitchers Weekly Rankings

Welcome to the Week 5 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks, where we take a look weekly at where the top 101 SPs stand moving forward in this strange sprint season. You can check out my weekly Top 101 Relief Pitcher Baller Ranks as well.

David Emerick rolled out an introduction to our Baller Ranks here -- I suggest you read for a full explanation of our purpose, but the TL;DR is here we're providing a one-stop-shop for pitcher and hitter valuation. We'll explore value produced to-date, their current standing, and provide context with analysis.

And for those who want stats like the usual 5x5 categories, strikeout rates, Called + Swinging Strike (CSW) rates, xwOBA, and more on a decked-out spreadsheet, we've got you covered - you can view the full Week 5 Top 101 SP Baller Ranks core sheet here.

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Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 5

Starting Pitcher Movers of Note

Aaron Nola (SP, Phillies): Nola is leaning on his changeup more to fantastic results, throwing it ~30% of the time compared to 18.5% last season. Out of 57 qualified starters through Aug. 15, Nola’s 1.89 xFIP and 2.23 SIERA are second only to Shane Bieber, as is his 35.5% K-BB% mark. And yesterday he stayed hot by blanking the Mets over seven frames, meaning he's faced the Marlins, Yankees, Braves, and Mets so far, only “struggling” against the Marlins (go figure) before destroying NYY, ATL, and now NYM. Feel good about him as a rotation workhorse as he stares down a potential NL Cy Young run.

Yu Darvish (SP, Cubs): Darvish was in ace form last week, holding the Brewers to one hit (a solo homer) over seven innings. He struck out a season-high 11 while walking only two, giving him a 27/4 K/BB ratio over 24 frames thus far. This gives him three straight quality starts with one run or fewer allowed, continuing his dynamic second half from 2019. After the All-Star break, Darvish posted a 2.76 ERA with a ridiculous 118 K’s in 81 ⅔ IP and a paltry .199 batting average against. Lean into the strong momentum here and feel comfortable with him as a top-tier starter.

Walker Buehler (SP, Dodgers): We know Buehler is good and he’s entitled to his speed bumps, but spotty command out of the gate is tough. He’s coasting on a .167 BABIP through four starts, but he’s now given up five homers and has an ugly 17/9 K/BB ratio through 19 IP. It’s one thing to struggle with homers or walks here and there, but dealing with both at once from the jump...not ideal. The 6.35 FIP/5.27 xFIP still causes heartburn and you can't have that from an upper-echelon SP, so let’s hope he evens this out.

Mike Clevinger (SP, Indians): Clevinger and Zach Plesac have both been optioned after sidestepping the COVID-19 protocols established by the team on a visit to Chicago. When it comes to Clev, the Indians also gain an extra year of control over him if he stays down for the required 10 days. But aside from the off-field shenanigans, Clev has an unusual 14.7% walk rate. And while the early 22.1% strikeout rate is quite low for him, his 31.3% CSW% is healthy.

Dallas Keuchel (SP, White Sox): Keuchel is in vintage form to open 2020, rocking a 57.9% groundball rate with tremendous command. Yasmani Grandal is one of the best defensive catchers around and his framing abilities pair well with Keuchel’s painting the edges. Though his early 3.46 FIP is strong and the 11% swinging-strike rate would be a career-best, we cannot go overboard after four starts with his 4.01 SIERA and 45.3% first-strike rate. But I don’t want to nitpick his approach on a small sample if it’s working, just take note.

James Paxton (SP, Yankees): Paxton’s velocity isn’t back, but he finally showed he can make that work with 11 strikeouts over 6 ⅓ IP against the Rays on Aug. 9. He was still touched for two homers and has an ugly 7.04 ERA through four turns, but the strikeouts helped instill confidence. If you can believe it, his 2.95 SIERA through three starts was in line with his 2.96 SIERA from his elite 2018 season. This metric isn’t everything, no one metric is, and his 4.96 FIP is still an eyesore. 

Even with suspect command, a .409 BABIP is near-impossible to maintain. But that’s only one piece, as his fastball velocity is down from the 95-mph range to 93. It actually fell below 92 on Aug. 2 against Boston, but rose back to 93 against Tampa and his second start versus Boston. His max velocity was 94.8 mph on Saturday. Let’s hope that’s an upward trend.

Merrill Kelly (SP, Diamondbacks): Kelly is 3-1 through four starts, posting a clean 1.71 ERA/0.91 WHIP with 22 K’s in 26 ⅓ IP. You know the deal, he’s obviously not that good and the .233 BABIP/100% strand rate will regress, but a 2.9% walk rate assists any pitcher. If he can keep that below 5% then he’ll be a viable streamer even as his BABIP regresses towards the .292 mark from last year. He’ll never be a strikeout arm, but the ~21% K rate will play for plus matchups -- again, as a streamer.

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