RADIO
April is wrapping up soon so let's end the first month of baseball right with my weekly Top 101 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks breakdown. It's still early but we've got some actionable intel to go off of! Let's jump into another edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
There's still less than a month of data to play with so be gentle. We're not going to go crazy framing things with small-sample stats just yet. Now, let's start with some analysis and then hit the table.
These ranks are geared towards traditional 5x5 leagues and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. However, it's still early so I'll try to loosely peg where I value injured arms amidst the fray. For now, let's dive into my top 101 SPs and be sure we're starting strong.
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Zac Gallen gave up nine earned in his first two starts of 2023 and then decided to start playing hardball. The 27-year-old ace has since ripped off three consecutive scoreless outings, allowing just eight baserunners over his last 20 ⅔ IP. Couple that with 29 strikeouts in that span and you’ve got a legitimate SP1 to build around.
-Sonny Gray is off to a roaring start, yielding just two runs over his first 29 frames of ‘23. He won’t go without a home run throughout the year but hasn’t been burned by any of the five barrels surrendered so far. Fewer four-seamers and sinkers mixed with more (and zippier) cutters and changeups are optimizing Gray’s arm.
His current BABIP of .282 is right there with career norms (.280) but a 13.1% swinging strike rate would be a career-best mark. That’s especially encouraging after a lowly 9.2% mark in ‘22. No one will maintain a 93.5% strand rate but this version of Gray is out here crafting master plans:
Sonny Gray leads MLB with a 0.62 ERA.
After shutting out the Yankees for seven innings, Gray talked about how much he enjoys the strategy and game-planning of being a starter.
"I just want to continue to get better every day and continue to work on my craft. It's really fun." pic.twitter.com/O55nMZwMf5
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) April 25, 2023
-Alex Cobb just tossed a complete-game shutout on Monday to lower his early ERA to 1.91 through five outings. The 35-year-old is an annual example of “sabermetrics are prettier than the surface stats” but maybe we’ll get more luck in ‘23.
His 3.76 ERA in ‘21 had a 2.92 FIP behind it. In 2022, the 3.73 ERA had a 2.80 FIP, and now the 1.91 ERA is coupled to a 2.83 FIP. That’s a tight FIP band over the last three years, but his groundball-happy ways don’t play nice with San Francisco’s lackluster defense.
He’s likely in for a year similar to ‘21 and ‘22 here but this is a nice reminder that he’s a good strikeout-per-inning arm that has solid ratios. But some bad luck days will almost surely come.
-Justin Steele is only one of seven starters who have 50 or more batted balls to their name with two or fewer barrels allowed (entering Tuesday). Steele’s 88.8 mph average exit velocity on flies and liners ranks fifth out of 133 pitchers (min. 50 BBE) with teammate Drew Smyly close by at 88.5 mph. Summer Wrigley can be tough but this kind of contact suppression is worth a healthy look.
-Eduardo Rodriguez is eighth on the aforementioned AEV leaderboard for FB/LD at 89.3 mph. The southpaw’s early 2.67 xERA on Statcast behind the 2.32 ERA is fueled by his last three starts in particular.
Allowing one run in his last three outings with a 19/1 K/BB ratio in those 21 innings has fueled it. The swing-and-miss rate on his cutter has soared from 14.2% in 2022 to 31.3% (per Baseball Savant) and we are here for it.
-Logan Allen dazzled in his MLB debut, striking out eight Marlins over six innings with a solo homer being the only blemish. The 24-year-old only walked one and posted a 50% groundball rate on the day, which continued his Triple-A successes.
It wasn’t much, but Allen’s trio of starts on the farm had a 1.26 ERA/1.05 WHIP with a whopping 20 strikeouts in just 14 ⅓ IP. His groundball rate there was 57.6% after hovering around 40% in 2022. If we get a portion of that growth to stick, then the whiff upside is even juicier.
#Guardians Logan Allen should be a fun watch today.
Four-seam+sweeper to LHH with an occasional splitter.
More splitter+cutter to RHH.
Sweeper is ~80 mph with 13" sweep. 72%(!) whiff rate left-left in AAA.
Four-seam only ~93 mph but 17" ride from low release. 👀
— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) April 23, 2023
Honorable Mention: Joey Lucchesi is not a sudden superhero despite a zesty welcome-back start in 2023 (7.0 IP, 0.0 ER, 9 K) against San Francisco. But the southpaw does get a friendly matchup against the Nationals on Thursday and looks to drop that hammer curve on them to our benefit. Streamers take note and let’s see if his audition for additional time down the road in this fragile rotation goes well.
And pick up Brandon Pfaadt because Drey Jameson needs a reboot in the minors and Tommy Henry is not a long-term answer for Arizona.
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 5
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