The Baller Ranks: Top 101 Starting Pitchers Weekly Rankings

Welcome to the Week 4 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks, where we take a look weekly at where the top 101 SPs stand moving forward in this strange sprint season. You can check out my weekly Top 101 Relief Pitcher Baller Ranks as well.

David Emerick rolled out an introduction to our Baller Ranks here -- I suggest you read for a full explanation of our purpose, but the TL;DR is here we're providing a one-stop-shop for pitcher and hitter valuation. We'll explore value produced to-date, their current standing, and provide context with analysis.

And for those who want stats like the usual 5x5 categories, strikeout rates, Called + Swinging Strike rates, xwOBA and more on a decked-out spreadsheet, we've got you covered - you can view the full Week 4 Top 101 SP Baller Ranks core sheet here.

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Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 4

Starting Pitcher Movers of Note

Carlos Carrasco (SP, Indians): We can wax poetic about Shane Bieber but we can’t let Cookie go without some love. Part of his move up into the heart of Tier 2 comes from others dropping, but he’s earned it too. Firing on all cylinders, Carrasco is benefitting from a .237 BABIP (.308 career) but has looked marvelous against Cincinnati and Minnesota -- strong lineups -- as well as undressing the Royals in his 2020 debut. Batted-ball luck can’t create a 23/6 K/BB ratio out of thin air. No one expects the 1.00 WHIP days to last, I hope, but Carrasco is an established veteran in a favorable pitching spot on Cleveland.

While I have him ahead of arms with higher ceilings, I value his stability against Clayton Kershaw, who just returned to action and carries an elevated re-injury risk, Max Scherzer, who has a minor quad issue, and Mr. Bauer, who looks amazing but is as volatile as they come. I just wanted to make my rationale clear.

Trevor Bauer (SP, Reds): Bauer and Sonny Gray are climbing in tandem thanks to outstanding early performances. We’ve seen both of them light the world on fire for seasons at a time, but Bauer’s electric 2018 was followed by a dud ‘19. Yes, he struck out 253 in 213 frames, but the 4.48 ERA had a 4.34 FIP and 4.14 SIERA behind it. Spin rates are up with Driveline's Kyle Boddy on the consultant payroll.

As with most early success stories, Bauer is also enjoying a low BABIP (.167), but the 46.4% strikeout rate with what would be a career-low 5.8% walk rate speaks to someone in total command of the zone. Interestingly, Bauer’s only throwing his first pitch for a strike 52.2% of the time thus far, not something you associate with big K’s and low walks. I’m siding with the results for now, but the hits will start falling, and being behind in counts too often isn’t conducive to long outings and long-term success.

Tyler Glasnow (SP, Rays): Glasnow’s control wasn’t there on Saturday against a dangerous Yankees lineup, which tagged him for four runs over 2 ⅔ innings. He would throw just 40 of his 71 pitches for strikes, but he also had horrid luck (.571 BABIP on the day). His 5.56 ERA has a frigid 5.20 FIP behind it, and the 3.35 xFIP points to three homers allowed in just 11 ⅓ IP this year. That 2.38 HR/9 comes after an incredible 0.59 HR/9 in ‘19, but if command has slipped then some pitches are going to find barrels.

German Marquez (SP, Rockies): Marquez has beaten up the Rangers, A’s, and Giants, with his best start coming at Coors (vs. SFG). The .239 BABIP and 7.1% HR/FB rate are far from his usual ~.310 BABIP and 16% HR/FB mark, but the 2.05 FIP and 2.96 SIERA are encouraging. Obviously a pitcher can be both good and lucky. 

He’s another arm that’s attacking the zone (73.3% first-strike rate!) and has more than doubled his changeup usage (3.2% to 7.9%). With a 49% fastball usage, he’s another arm backing off the heat. We’ll see how long his secondaries can play up in the thin air, but we know he has top-10 stuff thanks to 2018. You must accept a lower floor due to Coors, though.

Dylan Bundy (SP, Angels): Bundy’s left Baltimore and has unlocked a new level of production. This alone isn’t shocking, but the degree of production thus far definitely is. He’s leaning on his slider more, throwing it nearly as much as his four-seamer in 2020 (29.3% Slider, 32.8% Four-Seamer, per Baseball Savant). The xBA on his slider is .083 thus far, with only one hit surrendered across 84 thrown. It was a strong pitch last season too (.152 BA & .167 xBA, thrown at a 22.8% clip) but the Halos are encouraging it further. Blend in Max Stassi’s excellent pitch framing with this reliance on breaking balls and you’ve got a strong profile.

Matthew Boyd (SP, Tigers): Boyd is simply too hittable right now. Yes, the .417 BABIP is still a joke and it will come down. But he’s always had homer issues and that 1.84 HR/9 is right next to last year’s 1.89 rate. His first-strike rate was 64.3% last season, helping usher in the 30.2% strikeout rate. That F-Strike mark is down to 52.1%, dragging along a mediocre 18.3% strikeout rate.

His pitch mix and velocities are steady with last year, but the command simply looks off. One cannot rely on him at the moment, and the short season doesn’t reward patience as much. Burning roster spots on those searching for mechanical answers gives us less wiggle room for dancing around the COVID-19 absences as well. Mix in that Detroit is unlikely to provide many wins and it’s hard to be a Boyd backer in 2020.

Corbin Burnes (SP/RP, Brewers): Burnes made good on promises Saturday, striking out eight over 5 ⅓ innings of one-run ball. This comes after two appearances (one start, one relief) of under four innings each, so it’s nice to see Milwaukee stretch him out. While only six hits across 12 ⅓ frames look good, his eight walks in that span (5.84 BB/9) means he’ll be in serious trouble if command slips towards last year’s level at all. He’s got massive putaway stuff, but the threat of walks and homers loom large.

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