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Can you believe that September is already on the horizon? We're full speed ahead to the home stretch so be sure you've got a battle plan ready for the final month. Allow us to help craft a winning strategy with the Week 22 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
As always, this joins my SP thoughts with tiered ranks, complemented by a rest-of-season auction value ($), their Previous Week's Value (PV), the trend between the two, and a (+/-) column denoting the rank shift compared to last week. Pitchers continue to move more as the number of remaining games dwindles, especially if there are injury risks, inning walls, and so on. We'll check in on some injured arms this week.
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 roto leagues, and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. We've got championships to take another step toward, so let's get to it.
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Starting Pitcher Week 22 Rankings Analysis
With the NFL’s gravitational pull gaining strength by the minute, allow me to start by saying that I’ve had a lot of fun doing this with you all. With September nearing, evaluating rest-of-season ranks turns into more of a streaming exercise but this is still an enlightening process.
You must be straightforward with yourself about what your team needs are down the stretch. I wish I could lay out how I’d rank all pitchers in terms of strikeout upside, quality start likelihood, win probabilities, and more…but that is demanding and overwhelms both writer and reader. I love y’all but that is a suboptimal use of resources, eh? (If you disagree please do holler.)
With several notable pitchers facing workload limits and others simply struggling, there is far more wiggle room across the board in terms of pure ordinal ranks. The original mission of this piece starts to feel shaky in the late game as folks have fewer chances to right the ship and it becomes more matchup-dependent.
We’ll try to maintain order with tiers but how surprised will you truly be if Bowden Francis outperforms Garrett Crochet the rest of the way? Do you need to be aggressive in hoping that Osvaldo Bido and/or Albert Suarez are the truth moving forward? It’s going to be messy so be prepared. Okay, back to the usual!
-Gerrit Cole has looked lively against every team that isn’t the Mets thus far. His latest was his first scoreless effort of 2024 as he went six strong with eight strikeouts against Detroit.
This comes after 10 strikeouts against Texas on August 10 after back-to-back four-strikeout games and a fatigue scare in late July. We know what a 90th percentile Cole looks like and with so many others fading down the stretch, Cole earns a favorable light.
-Framber Valdez won his fifth consecutive game on Sunday as he logged his fifth game with nine or more strikeouts in his last seven trips to the bump. It’s not a Blake Snell-caliber second-half surge but more curveballs are unlocking the whiff upside here.
Now, while one of those big-K games came against the Dodgers, the other four came against the Marlins, Pirates, Rays, and White Sox. There is some run-good luck here as he’ll face the Orioles next, but at least it’s at Camden.
-Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes appear to be facing spoken workload management strategies down the stretch now. Garrett Crochet was cruising with nine strikeouts over four innings and still got the hook. Skubal/Skenes don’t seem to have such hard caps on them but we have to be prepared. Do you need five or six innings for wins or quality starts? Or can you live with a great, but short, outing?
-Corbin Burnes had looked like a cruise-control arm earlier in the summer, but the lack of strikeouts has put a bigger onus on his ratios and wins to generate fantasy value. He hasn’t struck out more than seven hitters in a game since the Reagan administration. Okay, it’s actually since May 19, but that’s what it feels like.
He now owns a 3.54 ERA (3.83 FIP), 1.16 WHIP, and 21.5% strikeout rate since then after the dam broke with an eight-run, horrible Friday against Boston.
Corbin Burnes' final line vs. Red Sox:
4 innings
10 hits (career high)
8 runs (career high)
3 walks
7 strikeoutsHis first start this season not completing 5 innings. He has a 3.10 ERA.
— Jacob Calvin Meyer (@jcalvinmeyer) August 17, 2024
Others with similar numbers in that span:
-Jake Irvin (3.77 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 21.9% K rate)
-Zach Eflin (3.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 21.5% K rate)
-Kevin Gausman (3.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 20.8% K rate)
-Michael Wacha (2.44 ERA (!), 3.87 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 20.8% K rate)
Anyway, Burnes faces Houston at home next so he better get his form back quickly.
-Brandon Pfaadt fanned a season-high 11 batters (it tied his career-high mark) thanks to a date with the road Rockies. He then got hit around by Miami but managed to win anyway, giving him three Ws in a row and four in his last five.
-Ryne Nelson going to the bullpen would be a tragedy. Jordan Montgomery simply is not good enough to bounce Nelson from the club. But we don't make the rules, unfortunately. I hold out hope, for now.
-Clayton Kershaw is up to his usual tricks with back-to-back victories and his first quality start of 2024 after blanking St. Louis over six frames. He had rust during his first two outings but he’s allowed two runs in his last three starts (16 ⅓ IP) with a 13:3 K:BB for fantasy teams.
-Bowden Francis continues to look like a new man. A phoenix, rising from the ashes of Arizona Toronto. More splitters have fueled a rise that has seen him limit opposing teams to eight total baserunners and three runs over his last three starts.
And he’s struck out at least seven in all three outings, too. He’ll rematch the Angels at home next after dominating them over seven innings on August 12, with the only blemish being a Mickey Moniak solo homer. What will the reigning AL Player of the Week do next?
Bowden Francis: 14 IP, 15 K, 0.64 ERA
Trea Turner: 10-for-21, 4 XBH, 1.262 OPSYour @Chevrolet AL and NL Players of the Week! pic.twitter.com/aXLxPQi8Mp
— MLB (@MLB) August 19, 2024
-Albert Suarez held a strong Red Sox offense off the scoreboard across six innings on Sunday. This makes three straight scoreless outings in a row for Suarez, who continues to rise to the occasion when needed in the rotation.
Most scoreless starts* by MLB pitchers in 2024:
1. Albert Suárez — 8
T-2. Bryce Miller — 7
T-2. Reynaldo López — 7
T-2. Hunter Greene — 7
T-5. Tarik Skubal — 6Suárez's 17 starts are the fewest on this list. Nearly half of his starts have been scoreless.
*not including openers
— Jacob Calvin Meyer (@jcalvinmeyer) August 18, 2024
-Osvaldo Bido blanked the Giants over six frames on Saturday for his third consecutive quality start. He’s now held down the Giants, Blue Jays, and Dodgers with the scuffling Rays on the horizon. Oakland isn’t giving him much run support but he’s won his last two games with scores of 2-0 and 1-0 anyway.
-Keider Montero has ripped off three wins in a row and draws the White Sox in Chicago for his next start. Do I hear four in a row?
-Bobby Miller (and Walker Buehler) get to stay on the table to inspire them to do better.
***Let’s check in on some rehabbing arms that you’re holding out hope for.
-Yoshinobu Yamamoto is due to throw two simulated innings on August 21. If all goes well, then he’ll progress to three sim innings after that. The following step would be a rehab assignment.
It’s unclear how far they’d need him to get before contributing to the majors, but presumably, they’d like him reacclimated to MLB at-bats before the postseason. The optimist in me is hoping for three starts starting in mid-September.
-Jacob deGrom (man, it feels good to type that name again) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment with the Frisco RoughRiders on Thursday. Those poor kids have to face Kumar Rocker on Wednesday, then deGrom, and then Max Scherzer on Friday. Buckle up!
Bruce Bochy has said the plan is for deGrom to throw four rehab starts before a mid-September activation. Maybe we get four shorter outings here.
-Tyler Glasnow eyes a return after the minimum 15-day stay on the injured list with elbow tendinitis. Color this writer an aggressively skeptical hue, but they reported the all-clear for structural damage on his scans. But LAD may curb his outings in September before it matters (to them, not us) in October.
-Jared Jones looks like himself on a rehab assignment as I write this. His heater has neared 100 mph as he’s totaled 10 strikeouts over five innings. We hope this is his final tune-up before returning to Pittsburgh, so let’s see if the time off allows him to maintain velocity in the final month.
Jared Jones made another AAA rehab start, and OH MY GOD
Jones stuck out 10 in 5.0 IP, allowing just 1 H and 1 BB
His 4-Seam and slider tore through opposing batters as they graded out well and returned terrific results. Hopefully he is back with Pittsburgh soon! pic.twitter.com/jedFpK3gie
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) August 21, 2024
-Clarke Schmidt is slated for a rehab start at some point this week. This has caused many a Yankee fan to hold out hope that Schmidt can return to form and allow Luis Gil to conserve innings in the bullpen as the new closer. (Though perhaps the back tightness shelves Gil for Will Warren in the meantime.)
In case you hadn’t heard, they’re not happy with Clay Holmes and his 10 blown saves. Again, this is lining up for about four MLB starts in mid/late September.
-Jesus Luzardo said during an in-game interview on August 14 that he’s still waiting for his back to completely heal, though it is “much, much better,” per Alex Krutchik. But it seems he’s out of time to rehab and return for meaningful MLB action since Miami is very much out of contention. Pack it up for 2025, folks.
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 22
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | $ | PV | Trend |
| 0 | 1 | Chris Sale | 1 | $44.0 | 44.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 1 | Blake Snell | 2 | $44.0 | 44.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 1 | Zack Wheeler | 3 | $44.0 | 43.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 1 | Jack Flaherty | 4 | $41.5 | 38.5 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 6 | 1 | Bailey Ober | 5 | $40.5 | 34.0 | 6.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 1 | Dylan Cease | 6 | $39.0 | 37.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 2 | Logan Gilbert | 7 | $37.0 | 37.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -5 | 2 | Tarik Skubal | 8 | $37.0 | 44.0 | -7.0 ▼ |
| 15 | 2 | Gerrit Cole | 9 | $37.0 | 25.0 | 12.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 2 | Michael King | 10 | $35.0 | 33.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -1 | 2 | Luis Castillo | 11 | $34.0 | 35.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 5 | 2 | Cole Ragans | 12 | $33.0 | 30.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 6 | 2 | Framber Valdez | 13 | $33.0 | 29.5 | 3.5 ▲ |
| -7 | 3 | Paul Skenes | 14 | $32.0 | 37.0 | -5.0 ▼ |
| -2 | 3 | George Kirby | 15 | $31.5 | 33.0 | -1.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 3 | Aaron Nola | 16 | $31.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 3 | Shota Imanaga | 17 | $30.0 | 29.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 10 | 3 | Logan Webb | 18 | $29.5 | 23.0 | 6.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 3 | Justin Steele | 19 | $29.5 | 27.0 | 2.5 ▲ |
| -5 | 3 | Corbin Burnes | 20 | $28.0 | 31.5 | -3.5 ▼ |
| 1 | 3 | Pablo Lopez | 21 | $27.0 | 25.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 3 | Sonny Gray | 22 | $25.5 | 25.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 3 | Max Fried | 23 | $25.5 | 23.5 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 3 | Robbie Ray | 24 | $25.0 | 23.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 5 | 3 | Yusei Kikuchi | 25 | $24.0 | 21.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 1 | 4 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 26 | $23.0 | 23.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 2 | 4 | Carlos Rodon | 27 | $23.0 | 21.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 4 | Tanner Bibee | 28 | $23.0 | 20.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 12 | 4 | Bryan Woo | 29 | $21.0 | 15.5 | 5.5 ▲ |
| 3 | 4 | Ronel Blanco | 30 | $21.0 | 20.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 6 | 4 | Hunter Brown | 31 | $20.0 | 18.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 8 | 4 | Bryce Miller | 32 | $20.0 | 16.5 | 3.5 ▲ |
| N/A | 4 | Jared Jones* | 33 | $20.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 0 | 4 | Luis Gil | 34 | $19.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -4 | 4 | Freddy Peralta | 35 | $18.5 | 20.0 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -16 | 4 | Taj Bradley | 36 | $18.5 | 28.0 | -9.5 ▼ |
| 2 | 4 | Cristopher Sanchez | 37 | $18.0 | 17.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 4 | Gavin Williams | 38 | $17.0 | 15.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 4 | 4 | Brandon Pfaadt | 39 | $17.0 | 15.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| N/A | 4 | Nathan Eovaldi | 40 | $16.5 | N/A | N/A |
| 3 | 4 | Spencer Arrighetti | 41 | $15.5 | 15.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 3 | 4 | Clayton Kershaw | 42 | $15.5 | 15.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 14 | 4 | Joe Musgrove | 43 | $15.5 | 10.0 | 5.5 ▲ |
| -8 | 5 | Zac Gallen | 44 | $14.5 | 18.5 | -4.0 ▼ |
| -7 | 5 | Seth Lugo | 45 | $14.5 | 17.0 | -2.5 ▼ |
| 3 | 5 | Ryan Pepiot | 46 | $14.0 | 12.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 6 | 5 | Tobias Myers | 47 | $13.5 | 11.0 | 2.5 ▲ |
| N/A | 5 | Reynaldo Lopez | 48 | $13.0 | N/A | N/A |
| -3 | 5 | Garrett Crochet | 49 | $12.0 | 14.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 5 | Shane Baz | 50 | $12.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 5 | Tyler Anderson | 51 | $11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 11 | 5 | Jeffrey Springs | 52 | $11.5 | 7.5 | 4.0 ▲ |
| -6 | 5 | Kutter Crawford | 53 | $11.0 | 13.5 | -2.5 ▼ |
| -6 | 5 | Kevin Gausman | 54 | $11.0 | 13.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| -1 | 5 | Zebby Matthews | 55 | $10.0 | 11.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -1 | 6 | Nick Pivetta | 56 | $9.5 | 10.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 3 | 6 | Ryne Nelson | 57 | $9.5 | 8.5 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -2 | 6 | Tanner Houck | 58 | $9.0 | 10.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 35 | 6 | Bowden Francis | 59 | $9.0 | 1.5 | 7.5 ▲ |
| -2 | 6 | Brayan Bello | 60 | $8.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -2 | 6 | David Festa | 61 | $8.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -1 | 6 | Nick Lodolo | 62 | $8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 7 | 6 | Brady Singer | 63 | $7.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 0 | 6 | Nestor Cortes | 64 | $7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 6 | Cody Bradford | 65 | $7.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 2 | 7 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 66 | $6.5 | 5.5 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 9 | 7 | JP Sears | 67 | $6.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 ▲ |
| 19 | 7 | Gavin Stone | 68 | $5.5 | 2.0 | 3.5 ▲ |
| -18 | 7 | Merrill Kelly | 69 | $5.0 | 11.5 | -6.5 ▼ |
| N/A | 7 | Justin Verlander | 70 | $4.5 | N/A | N/A |
| 0 | 7 | Matthew Boyd | 71 | $4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -10 | 7 | Jake Irvin | 72 | $4.0 | 8.5 | -4.5 ▼ |
| -4 | 7 | Chris Bassitt | 73 | $4.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 3 | 7 | Colin Rea | 74 | $4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -3 | 8 | Mitch Keller | 75 | $4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 8 | DJ Herz | 76 | $3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 5 | 8 | Michael Wacha | 77 | $2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 8 | Jose Berrios | 78 | $2.5 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 8 | Osvaldo Bido | 79 | $2.5 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 8 | Albert Suarez | 80 | $2.5 | N/A | N/A |
| 11 | 8 | Nick Martinez | 81 | $2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -16 | 8 | Edward Cabrera | 82 | $2.5 | 7.0 | -4.5 ▼ |
| -18 | 8 | Sean Manaea | 83 | $2.5 | 7.0 | -4.5 ▼ |
| 9 | 8 | Martin Perez | 84 | $2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -12 | 8 | Andrew Heaney | 85 | $2.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -6 | 9 | Jameson Taillon | 86 | $2.0 | 2.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -6 | 9 | Simeon Woods Richardson | 87 | $2.0 | 2.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -21 | 9 | Walker Buehler | 88 | $2.0 | 6.0 | -4.0 ▼ |
| -6 | 9 | Kyle Gibson | 89 | $2.0 | 2.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| N/A | 9 | Luis Severino | 90 | $2.0 | N/A | N/A |
| -6 | 9 | Andrew Abbott | 91 | $2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 4 | 9 | Marcus Stroman | 92 | $1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 4 | 9 | Charlie Morton | 93 | $1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -19 | 10 | Erick Fedde | 94 | $1.0 | 4.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
| -7 | 10 | Yariel Rodriguez | 95 | $1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -6 | 10 | Matt Waldron | 96 | $1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| N/A | 10 | Frankie Montas | 97 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 1 | 10 | Aaron Civale | 98 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 10 | Joe Boyle | 99 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 10 | Keider Montero | 100 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Bobby Miller | 101 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
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