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Huddle up for a special post-deadline edition of the weekly rest-of-season series that looks at my top 101 SP Baller Ranks breakdown. We have lots to catch up on and plenty of non-trade goodies to get to as well. Read on for the Week 19 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
This brings my SP thoughts with tiered ranks, complemented by a rest-of-season auction value ($), their Previous Week's Value (PV), the trend between the two, and a (+/-) column denoting the rank shift compared to last week. We're reaching that point of the year where any sign of injury can greatly affect a portion of the remaining schedule. As always, you are the only one who can speak to your degree of acceptable risk.
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 roto leagues, and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. Next week's piece should have a better idea of post-deadline job security as far as rotations go being set for the final months. But let's have some fun with this week's piece first!
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Starting Pitcher Week 19 Rankings Analysis
-Gerrit Cole had to miss his turn in the rotation with “general body fatigue.” That’s better than an arm injury, but it’s not encouraging. As of now, he’s not expected to miss anything else but the red flags are coming out of the drawer. Let's hope that this is strictly related to the stomach virus he's had this week.
Gerrit Cole has been dealing with a stomach virus for several days, Aaron Boone said.
— Bryan Hoch ⚾️ (@BryanHoch) July 30, 2024
-Garrett Crochet is sticking with the White Sox, even if GM Chris Getz is grumpy with him. Regardless of whether they envision another trade run this offseason or not, they should be careful with him down the stretch in a lost season. Risking your 2025 ace or a massive trade chip while playing for nothing is silly. Crochet has gone between 2-4 IP in his four July starts and while some of that may have been deadline bubble wrap, we have to be prepared for that moving forward.
-Michael King continues to flash that massive ceiling and while we’ve seen some hiccups along the way, the bigger question here is how San Diego will manage his innings. Alas, I won’t get into hyper-speculation without a clear reason. I do think that San Diego’s massive bullpen moves are tied to potentially culling the start lengths.
-Blake Snell simply loves the second half of the season. The southpaw is known for maddening inconsistency, namely with control, but has earned multiple Cy Young Awards because when he’s on…he’s on. The switch is currently flipped and if we had more confidence in that holding up then he’d be in the top 10. If you have that confidence, I won’t try to argue you down!
Blake Snell was absolutely dominant in the @SFGiants win over the Rockies yesterday (6IP 2H 0R 2BB 15K). His changeup, thrown 12 times, generated 7 whiffs and won our Starting Pitcher Pitch of the Day pic.twitter.com/tnEgr7SJS0
— Baseball Prospectus (@baseballpro) July 28, 2024
-Dylan Cease has been one of the best pitchers over the last month and saw his efforts highlighted by history with a no-hitter against Washington. The 36.4% strikeout rate over the last 30 days is only topped by Nick Pivetta’s 37.3% mark (we’ll get to him in a moment). Not only did Cease notch a no-hitter, but he’d only allowed one hit in three of his previous five outings, all of which were six innings or longer. There’s always some good luck involved in those runs but his feel for attacking the zone right now is undeniable.
-Nick Pivetta has 10 strikeouts in three of his last five starts, but he continues to give up too many runs in between whiffs. Fenway doesn’t help, as his 3.75 ERA on the road is far kinder than the 5.27 ERA at home, but his FIP is 3.37 in Boston compared to 4.28 away. Overall troubles with the long ball will bite him and his 2.87 HR/9 the third time through the order might beg Alex Cora to make an earlier switch.
His overall 4.47 ERA should creep down to the 3.85 FIP and maybe that beautiful 3.16 SIERA, but for now we accept Pivetta for who he is. Volatile whiffs with high-end potential. You must determine whether that profile fits your roster construction or not. This writer would rather have the strikeout upside over most of those names you see directly below Pivetta.
-Sonny Gray has a rough 6.75 ERA this month despite a 3.95 FIP, 2.36 xFIP, and a 2.94 SIERA in that span. Some get miffed by the sabermetrics because most are scored based on results, which is understandable! Gray has admitted to working through some things and that four-homer game against the Braves was rough, though he still walked none with 10 strikeouts! We have to grit our teeth here, as a .425 BABIP and 55% strand rate over his last five starts is unsustainably bad.
-Zac Gallen had a great first start off the IL back on June 29 after missing a month, but he’s looked beyond rusty since. We got four straight non-quality starts before his latest did the bare minimum (6 IP, 3 ER). He did blank the Cubs over five innings on June 20 but that came with six walks! The 19:14 K:BB in 24 July IP is simply not it, let alone the 16 earned runs (6.00 ERA). Not looking right for a prolonged stretch after missing extended time on top of the heavy 2023 workload makes for a scary profile.
-Reynaldo Lopez will reportedly make his next start but it’s a massive red flag to get forearm inflammation in the first place, let alone for a guy pushing out beyond his usual inning window.
Reynaldo López MRI came back clean and he’s day-to-day, #Braves hoping they don’t even have to put him on the injured list.
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) July 29, 2024
-Tyler Anderson is driving me a bit cuckoo but at least my autographed card of his is worth $1.05 now instead of $0.96! After posting horrible K-BB rates all year long, his last four games have produced a 32:2 K:BB in 26 ⅔ IP this month. That is a monumental leap from the 67:47 K:BB through June. Maybe he realized stepping it up would get him traded to a contender. (Spoilers: It didn’t, because other teams also see the peripherals.) Still, the whiffs will be respected as he moves up.
Let’s take a glance at the key trades and their fantasy fallout:
-Jack Flaherty wound up with the Dodgers when the trade deadline bell rang, but he almost found himself in pinstripes. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that an unknown preliminary agreement was in place between the Yankees and Tigers, which triggered a medical review that the Yanks balked at (The Athletic Link $$).
Flaherty has looked strong since missing time due to a back injury that required a pair of injections and the Dodgers love pitchers who get hurt every so often, so this works for everyone. We have to pause for a moment if a team refuses to trade for Flaherty based on medicals, but why should you agree with Dr. Yankee? And going to a winning Dodger team with a deep bullpen will help Flaherty when he is on the bump. It’s an overall win.
-Yusei Kikuchi is heading to the Astros to bolster a beleaguered rotation. This writer is not enamored by the 33-year-old heading to a venue with a short porch, as this year’s 1.32 HR/9 and the 1.6 career mark might highlight, but there’s no doubting the potential. Kikuchi owns a 3.64 FIP and 3.46 SIERA beneath the 4.75 ERA and gets a jolt with a winning Houston club. It’s a modest rise.
-Zach Eflin helps stabilize Baltimore’s rotation and gets a cushy Camden venue to call home. The 30-year-old has taken a step back compared to last year’s resurgent 3.50 ERA/1.02 WHIP campaign. It’d be nice to see the 9.2% swinging-strike rate come back to 2023’s 11.1%. As a result, his strikeout rate has fallen below 20% for the first time since 2019. I should point out that while Camden should be a bonus, Eflin had a 2.52 home ERA versus a 5.32 road ERA, but his FIP and xFIP were similar. Baltimore’s run support and surroundings are a win for Eflin's teams.
-Erick Fedde immediately bolsters an STL rotation seeking an upgrade with Lance Lynn scuffling and no real depth behind the top five they’d been leaning on. Andre Pallante might be pushed out despite being one of their best arms of late. The park and overall support are a nice upgrade for Fedde, who has a 2.53 ERA over the last month despite a 4.66 FIP, 5.14 xFIP, and 5.05 SIERA in that window. Busch Stadium has a 93 HR Park Factor (per Statcast) compared to Guaranteed Rate Field’s 99 score.
-Frankie Montas goes to Milwaukee. Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park’s overall 104 Park Factor is the fourth-highest per Statcast, with Milwaukee’s American Family Field just below average at 99, though it does have a top-5 HR factor of 114. We’ll take a slight win for FM.
-Alex Cobb solidifies Cleveland's No. 5 rotation spot with a veteran ready to make his 2024 debut. Cobb has been out for 2024 while recovering from hip labrum surgery but has posted ERAs between 3.70 and 3.90 in the last three seasons. If nothing else, getting Cleveland’s elite bullpen behind him boosts his outlook. This should free up a rotation spot in SF for Hayden Birdsong to come back for our fantasy teams.
-Michael Lorenzen looks to be KC’s new No. 5 starter with the way Alec Marsh has thrown lately. The 32-year-old has a 3.81 ERA over 101 ⅔ IP, his first year below 4.00 since 2019, yet he has a career-worst xFIP (4.97) and SIERA (5.09).
Texas may opt to stretch Dane Dunning back out or give Jose Urena a go, both of whom hit the 60-pitch mark on Saturday. And it hopes for Jacob deGrom and/or Tyler Mahle somewhere down the stretch.
-James Paxton came to the Red Sox after the Dodgers DFA'd the southpaw. This should solidify the No. 5 spot in Boston's rotation though few fantasy teams should employ his services at hitter-friendly Fenway. The southpaw’s remaining shred of fantasy value was tied to the Dodgers and their winning ways. (Brief late update: Paxton lasted 4 ⅓ IP with six runs allowed, though only three were earned.)
-Trevor Rogers gives Baltimore a left-handed project to work on, as his 4.53 ERA has equally iffy sabermetrics behind it. The 8.9% swinging-strike rate is easily a career-low, as is the 8.3% K-BB%. Going to Camden will help some, but this is a head-scratching move on the surface. He’ll be the No. 5 arm in the rotation for now and push Albert Suarez back into the ‘pen. Rogers remains a fringe fantasy arm until proven otherwise.
-Paul Blackburn moves to NYC to help the rotation depth. Blackburn is a 30-year-old righty with a career-best 1.16 WHIP going for Oakland, but the fantasy upside remains limited by a low 18% strikeout rate and a 4.41 ERA.
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 19
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | $ | PV | Trend |
| 0 | 1 | Tarik Skubal | 1 | $44.5 | 44.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 1 | Chris Sale | 2 | $43.5 | 43.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 1 | Zack Wheeler | 3 | $43.5 | 43.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 1 | Paul Skenes | 4 | $42.0 | 42.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 1 | Tyler Glasnow | 5 | $40.0 | 40.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 2 | Corbin Burnes | 6 | $39.0 | 39.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 2 | Cole Ragans | 7 | $38.5 | 36.0 | 2.5 ▲ |
| 3 | 2 | George Kirby | 9 | $35.0 | 31.5 | 3.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 2 | Joe Ryan | 8 | $36.0 | 35.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 1 | 2 | Logan Gilbert | 10 | $34.0 | 33.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -4 | 2 | Aaron Nola | 11 | $33.0 | 38.5 | -5.5 ▼ |
| 9 | 3 | Jack Flaherty | 12 | $31.5 | 26.0 | 5.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 3 | Justin Steele | 13 | $31.5 | 31.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 3 | 3 | Luis Castillo | 14 | $30.0 | 29.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 3 | 3 | Shota Imanaga | 15 | $30.0 | 28.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 5 | 3 | Dylan Cease | 16 | $30.0 | 25.5 | 4.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 3 | Grayson Rodriguez | 17 | $30.0 | 31.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 3 | 3 | Seth Lugo | 18 | $29.5 | 29.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -9 | 3 | Gerrit Cole | 19 | $29.0 | 34.0 | -5.0 ▼ |
| 1 | 3 | Pablo Lopez | 20 | $28.0 | 27.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 3 | 3 | Taj Bradley | 21 | $27.0 | 25.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 7 | 3 | Bailey Ober | 22 | $26.0 | 23.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 8 | 3 | Michael King | 23 | $25.5 | 22.5 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 15 | 3 | Blake Snell | 24 | $25.5 | 16.0 | 9.5 ▲ |
| -12 | 4 | Garrett Crochet | 25 | $24.0 | 31.5 | -7.5 ▼ |
| -10 | 4 | Sonny Gray | 26 | $24.0 | 30.0 | -6.0 ▼ |
| 3 | 4 | Nathan Eovaldi | 27 | $23.0 | 22.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 4 | Freddy Peralta | 28 | $23.0 | 23.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 6 | 4 | Hunter Greene | 29 | $23.0 | 18.5 | 4.5 ▲ |
| 11 | 4 | Robbie Ray | 30 | $22.5 | 15.0 | 7.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 4 | Ronel Blanco | 31 | $22.5 | 20.0 | 2.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 4 | Nick Pivetta | 32 | $21.0 | 19.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -7 | 4 | Tanner Bibee | 33 | $20.0 | 24.0 | -4.0 ▼ |
| -17 | 4 | Zac Gallen | 34 | $19.0 | 30.0 | -11.0 ▼ |
| -10 | 4 | Logan Webb | 35 | $18.5 | 24.0 | -5.5 ▼ |
| -9 | 4 | Tanner Houck | 36 | $18.5 | 23.0 | -4.5 ▼ |
| -5 | 4 | Cristopher Sanchez | 37 | $18.0 | 21.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
| 4 | 4 | Framber Valdez | 38 | $17.0 | 15.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 6 | 4 | Carlos Rodon | 39 | $16.0 | 15.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 4 | Luis Gil | 40 | $15.5 | 15.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 13 | 4 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 41 | $15.5 | 11.0 | 4.5 ▲ |
| -5 | 5 | Hunter Brown | 42 | $15.0 | 18.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
| -7 | 5 | Kutter Crawford | 43 | $15.0 | 18.5 | -3.5 ▼ |
| -1 | 5 | Clayton Kershaw | 44 | $15.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 5 | Kevin Gausman | 45 | $15.0 | 13.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 5 | Max Scherzer | 46 | $13.5 | 12.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 5 | 5 | Nick Lodolo | 47 | $13.0 | 11.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 5 | 5 | Yusei Kikuchi | 48 | $12.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 7 | 5 | Zach Eflin | 49 | $12.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 5 | 6 | Shane Baz | 50 | $11.5 | 10.5 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -2 | 6 | Jake Irvin | 51 | $11.5 | 12.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 5 | 6 | Bryce Miller | 52 | $11.5 | 10.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 6 | 6 | Gavin Williams | 53 | $11.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -16 | 6 | Reynaldo Lopez | 54 | $11.0 | 17.0 | -6.0 ▼ |
| 5 | 6 | Andrew Heaney | 55 | $10.5 | 8.5 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -6 | 6 | Gavin Stone | 56 | $10.0 | 11.5 | -1.5 ▼ |
| 4 | 6 | Mitch Keller | 57 | $10.0 | 8.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 4 | 6 | Bryan Woo | 58 | $9.0 | 8.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 20 | 6 | River Ryan | 59 | $9.0 | 2.5 | 6.5 ▲ |
| 10 | 6 | Brayan Bello | 60 | $8.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 ▲ |
| 5 | 6 | Brandon Pfaadt | 61 | $8.5 | 7.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| N/A | 7 | Jeffrey Springs | 62 | $8.0 | N/A | N/A |
| -12 | 7 | Nestor Cortes | 63 | $8.0 | 11.5 | -3.5 ▼ |
| -1 | 7 | Erick Fedde | 64 | $7.0 | 8.5 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -7 | 7 | MacKenzie Gore | 65 | $7.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| -2 | 7 | Luis L. Ortiz | 66 | $7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 7 | Jameson Taillon | 67 | $6.0 | 7.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 7 | Chris Bassitt | 68 | $5.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 7 | Tobias Myers | 69 | $5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 7 | Michael Wacha | 70 | $4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 6 | 7 | Tyler Anderson | 71 | $4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 8 | Kyle Gibson | 72 | $4.0 | 4.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 2 | 8 | Simeon Woods Richardson | 73 | $4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 8 | Brady Singer | 74 | $4.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| N/A | 8 | David Festa | 75 | $4.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 10 | 8 | DJ Herz | 76 | $3.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 11 | 8 | Ryne Nelson | 77 | $3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -4 | 8 | Jose Quintana | 78 | $2.5 | 4.5 | -2.0 ▼ |
| 1 | 8 | Marcus Stroman | 79 | $2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 8 | Spencer Arrighetti | 80 | $2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 8 | Andrew Abbott | 81 | $2.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 8 | Sean Manaea | 82 | $2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 9 | Charlie Morton | 83 | $2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -17 | 9 | Matt Waldron | 84 | $2.0 | 6.0 | -4.0 ▼ |
| -12 | 9 | Mitchell Parker | 85 | $2.0 | 4.5 | -2.5 ▼ |
| -8 | 9 | Drew Thorpe | 86 | $2.0 | 2.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 9 | Yariel Rodriguez | 87 | $2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 9 | Kyle Harrison | 88 | $2.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 2 | 9 | Edward Cabrera | 89 | $2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 9 | Ben Lively | 90 | $2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 2 | 9 | Jose Berrios | 91 | $2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 3 | 9 | Colin Rea | 92 | $1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 10 | Zack Littell | 93 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 10 | Luis Severino | 94 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 10 | JP Sears | 95 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 3 | 10 | Aaron Civale | 96 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 10 | Tyler Phillips | 97 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Carson Spiers | 98 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Randy Vasquez | 99 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 1 | 10 | Carson Fulmer | 100 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 10 | Max Meyer | 101 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
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