RADIO
Bring it in for the first look of the second half at our weekly rest-of-season series that looks at my top 101 SP Baller Ranks breakdown. We're coming off of the short All-Star week so I'm going to look ahead to the trade deadline and discuss some potential targets and their impact. Scroll on for the Week 18 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
As always, you'll get my SP thoughts with tiered ranks, complemented by a rest-of-season auction value ($), their Previous Week's Value (PV), the trend between the two, and a (+/-) column denoting the rank shift compared to last week. There isn't as much movement with a short week due to the All-Star break. Next week's piece should be even more fun after the deadline has passed!
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 roto leagues, and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. Some pitchers may be put in bubble wrap as the deadline approaches so we'll try to be reasonable here. Let's get the second half rolling with my ranks!
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Starting Pitcher Week 18 Rankings Analysis
*Let’s talk about some potential trade deadline fallout!*
-If Tarik Skubal moves, he’ll remain an ace no matter what, but a contender needing October innings could limit the southpaw down the stretch. He’s at 123 innings after throwing 95 last year and 117 ⅔ IP in 2022.
-This goes double, maybe triple, for Garrett Crochet, who was removed after only two innings on July 12, pitched one inning in the All-Star Game, and was pulled after four innings on Tuesday night. Of course, they were perfect innings with four strikeouts, so the upside remains.
His 111 ⅓ IP are nearly 25 more than the total number of professional innings he’d thrown up to this point in his career (going back to 2020). Remember the banked profits here as you scoff at the abbreviated box score. I don't know how much of these current limitations are due to Chicago safeguarding him ahead of the deadline versus a clear plan that would carry forward to whatever team potentially trades for him. As such, he won't slide as much as some of you might want to!
Garrett Crochet since April 25th (15 starts):
81.2 IP
117 Ks
1.87 ERA
0.89 WHIP
12.9 K/9
1.64 FIPIf today was his last day pitching in a Sox uniform I wish him the best wherever he’s traded. 💔🥹
— whitesoxmauri (@garrett_crochet) July 24, 2024
-Outside of those blockbuster names, Justin Steele has been floated if a deal blows away the Cubs but that seems extremely unlikely. But a deal involving Jameson Taillon is viewed as more probable and would open the door for Ben Brown (neck) to rejoin the rotation down the road.
-Jack Flaherty is another notable option, with Detroit’s asking cost surely lower than that of Skubal. The 28-year-old has a 3.13 ERA/0.96 WHIP with a pristine 2.48 xFIP and 2.60 SIERA through ~100 IP but has dealt with a recent back issue that caused him to skip a start and receive an anti-inflammatory injection. But his last two starts have seen him beat the Guardians and Blue Jays so you know the Orioles, Cardinals, and others are still inquiring.
-Toronto is listening on impending free agent Yusei Kikuchi, with quieter trade winds swirling around Kevin Gausman if the Blue Jays really lean into selling. Gausman’s inconsistency makes him tough to evaluate, but it wouldn’t be shocking if a team or two had an idea of how to fix his form.
Kikuchi has strong peripherals (3.58 FIP, 3.33 xFIP, 3.41 SIERA) but ill-timed home runs continue to bite him. Toronto’s Rogers Centre is scored as neutral for bats by Statcast Park Factors (100 overall), but the 103 HR Factor is slightly up. Buyers like Baltimore, St. Louis, and Cleveland all play in parks that suppress HRs.
-Zach Eflin and Zack Littell are being touted as trade candidates in Tampa Bay, with Eflin being the clear fantasy impact. He’s taken a step back after posting a 3.50 ERA/1.12 WHIP with 16 wins and a 26.5% strikeout rate in 2023, sliding to a 4.14 ERA/1.17 WHIP with only five wins and a 19% strikeout rate thus far. His 3.64 FIP and 3.92 SIERA suggest slightly brighter days as he’s held an elite 3% walk rate even with the lower whiffs.
He’s lost about five percentage points off his whiff rate on the curveball and four-seamer, with the lesser-used sweeper and changeup rates nearly halved. We’ll see where he winds up but I’m not expecting a value jump. They should vacate a spot for Jeffrey Springs’ imminent activation. He has a middling 4.33 ERA over 27 rehab innings, but the 32:4 K:BB is what we like to see.
-Erick Fedde has delighted in 2024 after reinventing himself in the KBO last season (where he won their pitching triple crown) and should provide another healthy mid-range SP target. Teams who balk at the asking price around Crochet can step down to Fedde’s 2.98 ERA/1.11 WHIP. There’s unlikely to be an actionable arrival should Crochet/Fedde get moved, as Nick Nastrini has struggled, Jake Eder is not impressing, and Noah Schultz is probably stuck to a 2025 ETA. Mike Clevinger doesn’t bring much intrigue in 2024.
-Tyler Anderson better make enough room in his luggage for the stash of lucky horseshoes that have enabled his 2.91 ERA to outrun the 4.44 FIP and 4.94 SIERA. The southpaw just held Seattle to one run on three hits and a walk while striking out eight over 5 ⅔ IP. His .229 BABIP sits well below the .301 mark from last year and his .283 career rate, while the 83% strand rate is over 10 percentage points above his career norms. Where will his tightrope act take him in August?
Pitcher A: 7.6% K-BB, 4.74 FIP, 4.46 xFIP, 4.78 SIERA
Pitcher B: 6.6% K-BB, 4.53 FIP, 5.03 xFIP, 5.13 SIERAPitcher A: Patrick Corbin (5.49 ERA)
Pitcher B: Tyler Anderson (2.81 ERA)— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) July 8, 2024
Reid Detmers, Davis Daniel, Chase Silseth, and even Zach Plesac can all step in. Detmers has been awful at Triple-A, most recently surrendering six runs on seven hits (three homers) in two innings. Daniel struck out nine over seven innings of one-run ball and would be the favorite to regain his major league footing. Silseth hasn’t looked himself, posting an ugly 10:15 K:BB over his last five starts at Triple-A. And Jack Kochanowicz just looked very overmatched in the majors. The initial lean is Daniel.
-James Paxton comes off our table since he’s been DFA’d by the Dodgers, who now have a 10-day window to trade him. It’s no coincidence this aligns with the trade deadline, but they needed a spot on the 40-man for River Ryan. Paxton has been linked with his old team, the Red Sox, but his slip in strikeouts and overall effectiveness keep him out of the top 100 regardless. His biggest plus in 2024 had become the Dodger offense and bullpen supporting him for wins.
-Chayce McDermott is very likely not a deadline name but was announced as Wednesday’s starter against Miami and who I would be to ignore that in a pitching article? McDermott is nearly 26 years old, seemingly held back from the majors by his lack of control. It’s no different in 2024, as he’s posted a 13.5% walk rate at Triple-A (his usual is between 12-17%). But his strikeout rate lives above 30% and he’s typically avoided issues with home runs. Can he be efficient enough to handle major league bats or will he be Baltimore’s version of Edward Cabrera?
And a quickie non-trade piece:
-Luis L. Ortiz just blanked the Phillies over seven innings to drop his starting ERA to 0.73 through 24 ⅔ IP. He’s only given up three extra-base hits in that span, holding opponents to a laughable .174/.202/.209 triple slash when given the start. One start was against the White Sox, but facing the Phillies, Mets, and Reds (in Cincinnati) is no slam dunk. Bringing a cutter into the fold and largely abandoning the changeup has paid off. Is he this good? No. But he demands your attention.
Luis L. Ortiz versus LHP
2023
.333/.418/.5472024
.200/.277/.314 pic.twitter.com/VEQgs60xLA— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) July 22, 2024
10 TEAMS IN NEED OF PITCHING HELP
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Cleveland Guardians
Minnesota Twins
Houston Astros
Atlanta Braves
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 18
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | $ | PV | Trend |
| 0 | 1 | Tarik Skubal | 1 | $44.5 | 44.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 1 | Chris Sale | 2 | $43.5 | 43.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 1 | Zack Wheeler | 3 | $43.5 | 43.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 1 | Paul Skenes | 4 | $42.0 | 41.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 0 | 1 | Tyler Glasnow | 5 | $40.0 | 40.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 2 | Corbin Burnes | 6 | $39.0 | 38.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 3 | 2 | Aaron Nola | 7 | $38.5 | 34.0 | 4.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 2 | Cole Ragans | 8 | $36.0 | 36.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 2 | Joe Ryan | 9 | $35.0 | 33.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 3 | 2 | Gerrit Cole | 10 | $34.0 | 31.5 | 2.5 ▲ |
| 5 | 2 | Logan Gilbert | 11 | $33.0 | 31.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 3 | 2 | George Kirby | 12 | $31.5 | 31.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -7 | 3 | Garrett Crochet | 13 | $31.5 | 39.5 | -8.0 ▼ |
| 3 | 3 | Grayson Rodriguez | 14 | $31.0 | 29.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 3 | 3 | Justin Steele | 15 | $31.0 | 28.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| -2 | 3 | Sonny Gray | 16 | $30.0 | 31.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -5 | 3 | Zac Gallen | 17 | $30.0 | 31.5 | -1.5 ▼ |
| 1 | 3 | Seth Lugo | 18 | $29.0 | 28.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 1 | 3 | Luis Castillo | 19 | $29.0 | 28.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 3 | 3 | Shota Imanaga | 20 | $28.0 | 25.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 3 | Pablo Lopez | 21 | $27.0 | 24.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 8 | 3 | Jack Flaherty | 22 | $26.0 | 22.5 | 3.5 ▲ |
| 4 | 3 | Dylan Cease | 23 | $25.5 | 23.0 | 2.5 ▲ |
| 4 | 3 | Taj Bradley | 24 | $25.5 | 23.0 | 2.5 ▲ |
| -4 | 4 | Logan Webb | 25 | $24.0 | 27.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
| -4 | 4 | Tanner Bibee | 26 | $24.0 | 26.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| -3 | 4 | Tanner Houck | 27 | $23.0 | 25.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| -2 | 4 | Freddy Peralta | 28 | $23.0 | 24.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 4 | Bailey Ober | 29 | $23.0 | 23.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 3 | 4 | Nathan Eovaldi | 30 | $22.5 | 20.0 | 2.5 ▲ |
| 4 | 4 | Michael King | 31 | $22.5 | 18.5 | 4.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 4 | Cristopher Sanchez | 32 | $21.0 | 19.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| 3 | 4 | Ronel Blanco | 33 | $20.0 | 18.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| 6 | 4 | Nick Pivetta | 34 | $19.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 ▲ |
| 6 | 4 | Hunter Greene | 35 | $18.5 | 15.0 | 3.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 4 | Kutter Crawford | 36 | $18.5 | 18.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -5 | 4 | Hunter Brown | 37 | $18.0 | 21.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
| -7 | 4 | Reynaldo Lopez | 38 | $17.0 | 22.5 | -5.5 ▼ |
| 4 | 4 | Blake Snell | 39 | $16.0 | 15.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| N/A | 5 | Kodai Senga | 40 | $15.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 5 | Robbie Ray | 41 | $15.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 8 | 5 | Framber Valdez | 42 | $15.0 | 11.5 | 3.5 ▲ |
| N/A | 5 | Clayton Kershaw | 43 | $15.0 | N/A | N/A |
| -2 | 5 | Luis Gil | 44 | $15.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 12 | 5 | Carlos Rodon | 45 | $15.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 ▲ |
| -8 | 5 | Kevin Gausman | 46 | $13.5 | 17.0 | -3.5 ▼ |
| -3 | 5 | Ranger Suarez | 47 | $13.0 | 15.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| -3 | 6 | Max Scherzer | 48 | $12.0 | 15.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
| 3 | 6 | Jake Irvin | 49 | $12.0 | 11.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -4 | 6 | Gavin Stone | 50 | $11.5 | 12.5 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -3 | 6 | Nestor Cortes | 51 | $11.5 | 12.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -1 | 6 | Nick Lodolo | 52 | $11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 6 | Yusei Kikuchi | 53 | $11.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 5 | 6 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 54 | $11.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -6 | 6 | Shane Baz | 55 | $10.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -1 | 6 | Zach Eflin | 56 | $10.0 | 10.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 3 | 6 | Bryce Miller | 57 | $10.0 | 8.5 | 1.5 ▲ |
| -5 | 7 | MacKenzie Gore | 58 | $9.0 | 11.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| -1 | 7 | Gavin Williams | 59 | $9.0 | 10.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 1 | 7 | Andrew Heaney | 60 | $8.5 | 8.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -5 | 7 | Mitch Keller | 61 | $8.5 | 10.0 | -1.5 ▼ |
| 2 | 7 | Bryan Woo | 62 | $8.5 | 7.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| -1 | 7 | Erick Fedde | 63 | $8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 7 | Luis L. Ortiz | 64 | $7.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 5 | 7 | Jameson Taillon | 65 | $7.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 ▲ |
| 5 | 7 | Brandon Pfaadt | 66 | $7.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 ▲ |
| -4 | 7 | Matt Waldron | 67 | $6.0 | 8.5 | -2.5 ▼ |
| -3 | 7 | Chris Bassitt | 68 | $5.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 3 | 7 | Tobias Myers | 69 | $5.0 | 4.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 19 | 7 | Brayan Bello | 70 | $4.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 6 | 7 | Michael Wacha | 71 | $4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| -6 | 7 | Kyle Gibson | 72 | $4.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -4 | 7 | Mitchell Parker | 73 | $4.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -6 | 7 | Jose Quintana | 74 | $4.5 | 5.5 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -2 | 7 | Simeon Woods Richardson | 75 | $4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 8 | Brady Singer | 76 | $3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 8 | Tyler Anderson | 77 | $3.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 9 | 8 | Drew Thorpe | 78 | $2.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| N/A | 8 | River Ryan | 79 | $2.5 | N/A | N/A |
| -5 | 8 | Marcus Stroman | 80 | $2.5 | 3.5 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -3 | 8 | Spencer Arrighetti | 81 | $2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -6 | 9 | Andrew Abbott | 82 | $2.0 | 3.5 | -1.5 ▼ |
| -3 | 9 | Sean Manaea | 83 | $2.0 | 2.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 9 | Landon Knack | 84 | $2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -4 | 9 | Charlie Morton | 85 | $2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 9 | DJ Herz | 86 | $2.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 1 | 9 | Yariel Rodriguez | 87 | $2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 9 | Ryne Nelson | 88 | $2.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 9 | Hayden Birdsong | 89 | $2.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 1 | 9 | Jose Soriano | 90 | $2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -9 | 10 | Edward Cabrera | 91 | $1.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -2 | 10 | Ben Lively | 92 | $1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -10 | 10 | Jose Berrios | 93 | $1.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -8 | 10 | Zack Littell | 94 | $1.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 10 | Colin Rea | 95 | $1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| N/A | 10 | Luis Severino | 96 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | JP Sears | 97 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 2 | 10 | Joey Estes | 98 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 10 | Aaron Civale | 99 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 10 | Jon Gray | 100 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | 10 | Carson Fulmer | 101 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
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