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Hello and welcome to a special midseason version of our weekly rest-of-season series that looks at my top 101 SP Baller Ranks breakdown. With few games to dig into, we'll discuss some injured arms and prospects who should make an impact in the season's second half. Scroll on for the Week 17 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
Check out my SP thoughts with tiered ranks, complemented by a rest-of-season auction value ($), their Previous Week's Value (PV), the trend between the two, and a (+/-) column denoting the rank shift compared to last week. There isn't as much movement with a short week due to the All-Star break.
These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 roto leagues, and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. There are several pitchers with ambiguous rehab plans coming out of the break so keep those fingers crossed. Catch your breath and get ready for the second half of our marathon with more pitching chatter!
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Starting Pitcher Midseason Rankings Analysis
Notable Injured Impact Arms For The Second Half:
-Zack Wheeler missed his final start of the first half following back spasms curtailing his previous outing. He played catch over the weekend and is slated to return against Minnesota on July 22 or 23, per The Athletic’s Matt Gelb. I hate back injuries like this but it sure beats an arm injury! The same goes for Ranger Suarez and his back tightness. Everyone find a heating pad ASAP.
Aaron Nola is scheduled to start the first game out of the break in Pittsburgh. Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez will start in Minnesota (dates TBD).
J.T. Realmuto might be activated in Minnesota, not Pittsburgh, according to Rob Thomson.
— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) July 14, 2024
-Tyler Glasnow hit the IL with his own back tightness retroactive to July 6 and could return for Sunday’s series finale against the Red Sox. But the Dodgers may opt for additional rest depending on how other arms are holding up on the other side of the break. Anyone panicking about Glasnow or Wheeler will make for a great trade partner if the All-Star break makes them antsy for movement.
-Clayton Kershaw threw three scoreless/hitless innings at Triple-A on Sunday, reaching 50 pitches between game action and the bullpen. If his next rehab outing goes well on Friday then the next stop for Kersh could be the majors as we await the 36-year-old’s 2024 MLB debut.
BREAKING: Clayton Kershaw will start for OKC on Friday. If it goes well, then he is expected to be activated off the IL and return to the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation per Dave Roberts. pic.twitter.com/SQGk72knE9
— The Incline: Dodgers Podcast (@TheInclinePod) July 14, 2024
-Kodai Senga got up to 67 pitches in his third rehab start and Carlos Mendoza said Senga’s next move is still “TBD.” Perhaps it’s on a big-league bump or they’ll want one final rehab go where he nudges above 75 pitches. Either way, get your ghost forks ready for a feast!
-Jesus Luzardo could have been the top southpaw on the trade market after Garrett Crochet, but the Miami Herald’s Craig Mish said Luzardo “isn’t being traded until he is fully healthy again.” That seems far off as he’s out until at least mid-August and the latest has him doing bike workouts and forearm/shoulder strengthening. Given the poor 5.00 ERA and career-low 21.2% strikeout rate, on top of the rust he’ll need to shake off, Luzardo stashers should temper expectations.
-Jared Jones is scheduled to begin throwing against after the All-Star break as he works back from a Grade 2 lat strain. The hope is for him to return in mid-August and while Paul Skenes’ ascension has overshadowed Jones, who (outside of a tough Coors tilt) allowed five runs in a four-start stretch prior to the injury.
-Yoshinobu Yamamoto is playing catch out to 60 feet as of last weekend and is out until at least August 15 after LAD moved him to the 60-day IL. He was originally diagnosed with triceps tightness but that was quickly changed to a strained rotator cuff. With clear postseason aspirations, Yamamoto may not be back until closer to September for a ramp-up to October.
*Others such as Robbie Ray, Alex Cobb, Eduardo Rodriguez, Merrill Kelly, Clarke Schmidt, Jeffrey Springs, and perhaps even just maybe Jacob deGrom are also worthy of stashing. Everyone outside of deGrom has a good chance of returning in August.
Notable Prospects For The Second Half:
-River Ryan is a 25-year-old prospect reportedly being called up by the Dodgers to debut after the break. Part of his late age/development curve is tied to his being a two-way player in college and we saw what a Ryan who was focused on pitching could do in 2022 after a trade to LAD from San Diego took place. He has a fastball capable of sniffing 100 mph to spearhead a well-rounded five-pitch mix and most recently got up to five innings at Triple-A. Very exciting!
The Dodgers’ pitching is ”in desperate times,” and could require reinforcements.
That will likely include Dodgers pitching prospect River Ryan, who the club is planning on calling up after the All-Star break, sources tell The Athletic. Start day is TBD. https://t.co/IhqRzZtquu
— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) July 14, 2024
-Jackson Jobe has kicked it into high gear at Double-A, ringing up 16 strikeouts over his last 10 innings of work (with one run on five hits). The Tigers moved Kenta Maeda to the bullpen (where he did well!) and could trade Tarik Skubal and/or Jack Flaherty by the end of July. There should be room for both Jobe and Matt Manning to get MLB starts soon. Ty Madden has faltered at Triple-A, posting an 8.43 ERA/1.85 WHIP there, with 22 runs over his last 22 innings.
-Max Meyer hit a lull at Triple-A but has only allowed one run with a 16:5 K:BB over his last three starts (14 ⅔ IP), bumping his average workload up to five innings instead of four. He also notably made a July 14 start after pitching on July 9 after going 6-7 days between starts. Perhaps they’re gearing him up for another MLB run. There are certainly openings in their rotation.
-Jacob Misiorowski is a 6-foot-7 arm with 10 strikeouts against two walks in back-to-back outings at Double-A. Walks had been an early problem, with three or more free passes issued in eight of his first 10 starts this season. But he hasn’t hit that threshold in any of his previous seven outings, posting a 44:10 K:BB in 33 ⅓ IP since June began. Milwaukee’s been aggressive with Carlos F. Rodriguez and others so we may see the plus fastball/slider come up soon.
Jacob Misiorowski was absolutely dominant today.
6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K
When he can limit the walks, he can be one of the best pitching prospects in the minors.#ThisIsMyCrewpic.twitter.com/GujLUHX0Yk
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) July 13, 2024
-Zebby Matthews posted a 1.59 ERA/0.75 WHIP with a 33% strikeout rate in four High-A starts and has kept it rolling at Double-A (55 ⅓ IP, 30% K%, 1.95 ERA, 0.76 WHIP). Perhaps David Festa’s major league flameout is cooling folks but I’d caution that Festa’s big strikeouts on the farm came with a 1.36 WHIP, with a similar high WHIP in 2023.
-Chayce McDermott is closer to Festa than Matthews with his 128 strikeouts in 90 Triple-A IP thus far, as seen in the 3.70 ERA/1.40 WHIP. He hasn’t posted a walk rate below 12% in any pro season yet, but big whiffs mean a fantasy ceiling is present. Mix that with Camden’s generous dimensions and a thin BAL rotation (pre-deadline, at least) and there’s hope.
-Noah Schultz turns 21 on August 5 and is likely waiting on 2025 to make an MLB debut. But he’s responded well to the mid-May Double-A promotion, posting a 2.30 ERA/0.99 WHIP (2.69 FIP) with a 30.6% strikeout rate over 27 ⅓ IP. But he’s been limited to four innings a start, so temper expectations even if a September call-up arises.
-Cade Horton is throwing on flat ground as he rehabs from a sub-scapular (lat) strain suffered on May 29. The original rehab timeline would have him rejoining Triple-A as August begins, so a September debut remains possible. Ben Brown is still symptomatic and remains in the “playing catch” phase as of July 11 (so is Jordan Wicks).
-Ricky Tiedemann has renewed forearm tightness and it feels like a lost season for Toronto’s top prospect.
-I miss Andrew Painter, that is all.
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 17
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | $ | PV | Trend |
| 0 | 1 | Tarik Skubal | 1 | $44.5 | 44.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 1 | Chris Sale | 2 | $43.5 | 43.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 2 | Zack Wheeler* | 3 | $43.0 | 43.5 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 3 | 2 | Paul Skenes | 4 | $41.0 | 38.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| -1 | 2 | Tyler Glasnow* | 5 | $40.0 | 42.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| -1 | 2 | Garrett Crochet | 6 | $39.5 | 40.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -1 | 2 | Corbin Burnes | 7 | $38.5 | 40.0 | -1.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 3 | Cole Ragans | 8 | $36.0 | 36.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 3 | Max Fried | 9 | $35.0 | 36.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 1 | 3 | Aaron Nola | 10 | $34.0 | 34.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 3 | Joe Ryan | 11 | $33.0 | 34.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 3 | Zac Gallen | 12 | $31.5 | 31.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 3 | Gerrit Cole | 13 | $31.5 | 31.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 3 | Sonny Gray | 14 | $31.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 3 | George Kirby | 15 | $31.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 3 | Logan Gilbert | 16 | $31.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 3 | Grayson Rodriguez | 17 | $29.5 | 30.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| 1 | 3 | Justin Steele | 18 | $28.0 | 27.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 1 | 3 | Seth Lugo | 19 | $28.0 | 27.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 2 | 3 | Luis Castillo | 20 | $28.0 | 26.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -3 | 4 | Logan Webb | 21 | $27.0 | 29.0 | -2.0 ▼ |
| -1 | 4 | Tanner Bibee | 22 | $26.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 4 | Shota Imanaga | 23 | $25.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 4 | Tanner Houck | 24 | $25.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 4 | Pablo Lopez | 25 | $24.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 4 | Freddy Peralta | 26 | $24.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 4 | Dylan Cease | 27 | $23.0 | 23.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 4 | 4 | Taj Bradley | 28 | $23.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 ▲ |
| 0 | 4 | Bailey Ober | 29 | $23.0 | 22.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 0 | 4 | Jack Flaherty | 30 | $22.5 | 20.5 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -3 | 4 | Reynaldo Lopez | 31 | $22.5 | 23.0 | -0.5 ▼ |
| -1 | 4 | Hunter Brown | 32 | $21.0 | 20.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 4 | Nathan Eovaldi | 33 | $20.0 | 18.0 | 2.0 ▲ |
| -1 | 4 | Cristopher Sanchez | 34 | $19.0 | 18.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 0 | 4 | Michael King | 35 | $18.5 | 18.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 4 | Ronel Blanco | 36 | $18.5 | 18.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 4 | Kutter Crawford | 37 | $18.0 | 17.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 5 | Kevin Gausman | 38 | $17.0 | 16.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 4 | 5 | Ryan Pepiot | 39 | $15.5 | 15.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 4 | 5 | Nick Pivetta | 40 | $15.0 | 14.5 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 4 | 5 | Hunter Greene | 41 | $15.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 4 | 5 | Luis Gil | 42 | $15.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 5 | 5 | Blake Snell | 43 | $15.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 ▲ |
| -7 | 5 | Ranger Suarez | 44 | $15.0 | 18.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
| -5 | 5 | Max Scherzer | 45 | $15.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 ▼ |
| -4 | 6 | Gavin Stone | 46 | $12.5 | 15.0 | -2.5 ▼ |
| 0 | 6 | Reese Olson | 47 | $12.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 6 | Nestor Cortes | 48 | $12.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 6 | Shane Baz | 49 | $12.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 8 | 6 | Framber Valdez | 50 | $11.5 | 8.5 | 3.0 ▲ |
| 0 | 6 | Nick Lodolo | 51 | $11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 3 | 6 | Jake Irvin | 52 | $11.5 | 10.0 | 1.5 ▲ |
| -12 | 6 | MacKenzie Gore | 53 | $11.0 | 16.0 | -5.0 ▼ |
| -2 | 6 | Yusei Kikuchi | 54 | $11.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 6 | Zach Eflin | 55 | $10.5 | 10.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 1 | 6 | Mitch Keller | 56 | $10.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| -4 | 6 | Carlos Rodon | 57 | $10.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -4 | 6 | Gavin Williams | 58 | $10.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 3 | 7 | Spencer Schwellenbach | 59 | $9.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 ▲ |
| 0 | 7 | Bryce Miller | 60 | $8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 7 | Andrew Heaney | 61 | $8.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -1 | 7 | Erick Fedde | 62 | $8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -4 | 7 | Matt Waldron | 63 | $8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 7 | Bryan Woo | 64 | $7.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 0 | 7 | Chris Bassitt | 65 | $6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 7 | Kyle Gibson | 66 | $6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 7 | Christian Scott | 67 | $5.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 7 | Jose Quintana | 68 | $5.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 7 | Mitchell Parker | 69 | $5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 7 | Jameson Taillon | 70 | $4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 3 | 7 | Brandon Pfaadt | 71 | $4.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| -3 | 8 | Tobias Myers | 72 | $4.5 | 5.5 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 2 | 8 | Simeon Woods Richardson | 73 | $4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 2 | 8 | Brady Singer | 74 | $3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -2 | 8 | Marcus Stroman | 75 | $3.5 | 4.5 | -1.0 ▼ |
| 1 | 8 | Andrew Abbott | 76 | $3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 8 | Michael Wacha | 77 | $3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 9 | Spencer Arrighetti | 78 | $2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 9 | Tyler Anderson | 79 | $2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 9 | Sean Manaea | 80 | $2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 9 | Charlie Morton | 81 | $2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 9 | Edward Cabrera | 82 | $2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -13 | 9 | Jose Berrios | 83 | $2.0 | 5.0 | -3.0 ▼ |
| 0 | 9 | Landon Knack | 84 | $2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 9 | Dean Kremer | 85 | $2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 9 | Zack Littell | 86 | $2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 9 | Drew Thorpe | 87 | $2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 9 | Yariel Rodriguez | 88 | $2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 7 | 9 | Brayan Bello | 89 | $1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ |
| 0 | 10 | Ben Lively | 90 | $1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 10 | Jose Soriano | 91 | $1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 10 | Jonathan Cannon | 92 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| N/A | 10 | Javier Assad | 93 | $1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| 0 | 10 | Albert Suarez | 94 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 10 | Colin Rea | 95 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 1 | 10 | Keider Montero | 96 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| -4 | 10 | Michael Lorenzen | 97 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 10 | Jordan Hicks | 98 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 10 | James Paxton | 99 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 10 | Joey Estes | 100 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
| 0 | 10 | Aaron Civale | 101 | $1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
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