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Mark McWhirter lists his top 10 fantasy football lineup busts and NFL players to avoid for Week 16 of the 2020 NFL season, based on bad matchups.
'Twas the night before kickoff and fantasy managers were snug in their beds, while visions of championships danced in their heads. There's nothing quite like getting together with family over the holidays to relax, kick back, and watch some football. Of course, having a fantasy title on the line only adds to the experience.
Whether a first-time finals participant or reigning over a dynasty, the sweet taste of winning never gets old. If you've followed our RotoBaller team all season, you surely have become accustomed to the taste of victory, as each week we break down every fantasy football matchup and keep you up to date on the top waiver-wire pickups.
In the majority of leagues, this will be the last lineup you set this season. Cozying up with a trophy over the offseason definitely beats living in regret. If you want to hold valuable bragging rights over your league-mates, it starts with avoiding matchup-costing duds at this critical stage. Check out the ten players listed below and how they may be poised to keep you from reaching the fantasy summit.
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Russell Wilson vs. Los Angeles Rams
Russell Wilson started the season with top-twelve performances in eight of his first ten games. Since that time, he has finished inside the top-twelve just once in four attempts. His points per game have dropped from 26.8 to 16.6 and he delivered a season-worst QB28 showing last time out. Wilson has been the QB15 in fantasy over the past month and can no longer be viewed as a locked-and-loaded option approaching championship week, especially considering the matchup.
This week Wilson gets a matchup with the division-rival Rams who have held opposing quarterbacks to only 10.4 points per game over the past two weeks. That mark is actually an improvement over Los Angeles’s already-stellar average of 14.2 points allowed per game to opposing signal callers, which is tops in the NFL through fifteen weeks. Wilson has already faced the Rams once this year and the result was his lowest fantasy output of the season, at just 11.9 points. Los Angeles has allowed the fewest passing yards, yards per attempt, and passing touchdowns in the NFL. If you’ve made it this far, your opponent is likely a formidable one. Even if they aren’t, I can guarantee their quarterback isn’t facing a defense like this one. Shoot for glory and bench Wilson. Otherwise, the Rams will be the Grinch who stole your fantasy championship.
Josh Jacobs vs. Miami Dolphins
You aren’t going to bench Josh Jacobs in your fantasy finals unless your fantasy stocking is filled with running backs. The matchup this week is still one to be wary of, however, as the Dolphins have stymied opposing rushers for the past month and enter this week fighting for their playoff lives. Running backs have scored only 12.1 points per game over the past four weeks against Miami, which would be the best mark in the league if sustained all season. Jacobs is the RB8 on the year, averaging fourteen points per game, but has struggled comparatively in recent weeks.
Over his last three contests, Jacobs has averaged only 10.6 points, which would place him at RB30 if it represented his season mark. Miami has conceded only eight rushing touchdowns on the season and no opposing runner has topped 90 yards on the ground against this defense. Those numbers are notable for Jacobs, as he has only topped 25 receiving yards twice on the season and relies on rushing yardage and end zone trips to deliver fantasy points. He’s unlikely to hit your bench but should be viewed as more of an RB2 than the RB1 that GMs have leaned on all year.
Tyler Lockett vs. Los Angeles Rams
If searching for an example to illustrate fantasy football’s unpredictability, look no further than Tyler Lockett. Lockett is the WR11 on the season yet has been completely unusable for fantasy purposes for the majority of the season. It is a real head-scratcher when a “WR1” belongs nowhere near fantasy lineups. Here are Lockett’s recent fantasy finishes: WR66, WR47, WR47, WR73. That is consistently miserable and has sunken many fantasy ships. The WR61 over that span, Lockett has averaged 4.5 catches for 43 scoreless yards per game and you would literally have been better off starting the likes of Gabriel Davis, Tyron Johnson, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Collin Johnson, among other less than household names. If you are somehow still alive with Lockett on your roster: kudos to you and continue to pretend he isn’t.
Should you need further reason to avoid another dud from Lockett, check out his opponent for this week. The Los Angeles Rams are almost never in the giving mood when it comes to fantasy receivers, as they rank as the toughest matchup for the position and allow only 22.9 points per game. That number has actually shrunk recently, with the Rams giving up just 20.0 points per game over their last three. The Rams have allowed the fewest yards per reception and receiving touchdowns in the NFL, as well as the fewest completions of 20+ and 40+ yards. We could keep piling on, but you get the point. Sit Lockett.
Evan Engram vs. Baltimore Ravens
Evan Engram continues to befuddle, as his 21.8% target share is elite for a tight end, yet he ranks as the TE14 in a season in which tight ends have done essentially nothing outside of Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. If Engram is unable to emerge as a locked-in option in a season such as this, it might be time to accept that it is never going to happen. GMs should leave that long-term debate for another time and focus on the fact that it is certainly unlikely to happen in Week 16.
Engram has been the TE24, TE37, and TE22 over the past three weeks. Daniel Jones’s injury has contributed to those poor showings, but Engram hadn’t exactly been lighting it up with Jones, either. In fact, Engram has caught only one touchdown pass this entire season. Jones is on track to play this week, but he is nowhere near 100% health-wise and is unlikely to amount to the type of upgrade that would vault Engram into must-start territory. The Ravens give up 9.9 points per game to tight ends but have tightened up over their last four games. Over that span, the Ravens have surrendered an average of 8.3 points, and that number shifts to 8.5 over their past seven contests. Engram needs to finally catch a touchdown pass to be worth starting in the fantasy finals, and only one tight end has notched a receiving score against Baltimore over the past seven weeks. He isn’t a must-bench due to the state of the position, but don’t expect much from Engram this time around.
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts’ defense and Big Ben are both trending down entering Week 16. Although Ben is the QB11 on the year, he has actually only finished as a top-fourteen quarterback four times. None of those performances have come in the past five weeks, with Ben checking in as the QB33 last week against Cincinnati. Indianapolis started the season by allowing just one top-twelve quarterback finish over the first nine weeks but have surrendered four such performances over their last five games. Ben’s recent showings provide minimal confidence that he will be able to take advantage of good matchups, however, as he does not appear fully healthy and the Steelers’ offense has nosedived as a result.
Pittsburgh has scored just seventeen points per game over their past four and has lost each of their last three contests after starting the season 11-0. Ben has passed for 178.5 yards per game over the two most recent losses and has thrown for 1.5 touchdowns per game over the past month. Those numbers are not going to deliver fantasy titles no matter how many receivers are guiding his sleigh. When Ben’s passing is off, he does little else to make up for it. With his yards per attempt at a career-low this season, GMs should promote a quarterback more likely to be in the giving spirit.
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I’m not sure how you can feel confident in Ezekiel Elliott in fantasy these days. That is a rarely used statement over the course of his career, as Zeke stepped into the fantasy spotlight and ran with it essentially from day one of his rookie season. Whether a lingering calf injury is to blame, or Zeke has simply lost explosiveness, he just does not look like a dynamic player anymore. That was never more evident than last week when backup Tony Pollard exploded as the RB2 in the absence of Zeke. Pollard has actually finished inside the top-eighteen running backs in three of his past five games, despite playing second fiddle to Zeke in four of those. Zeke has only finished inside the top-eighteen running backs once in his last eight tries and hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since Dak Prescott went down.
The Eagles are eleventh against fantasy rushers and held Kenyan Drake to an RB46 performance last week. Philadelphia holds running backs to 3.69 yards per carry, ranking second in the NFL. Zeke was the RB31 last time he faced the Eagles and will likely split much more work with Pollard this time around, due to the question marks around Zeke’s health and the effectiveness of Pollard last week. It is difficult to even choose Zeke over Pollard at this point, and both running backs will be borderline RB2s in this one. The big name is tempting but GMs need to focus on this week and ride with a better option.
DJ Chark Jr. vs. Chicago Bears
It has been quite the disappointing season for DJ Chark Jr., who is consistently ranked as a WR2 despite performing as a WR4 or worse for the vast majority of the season. The revolving door at quarterback hasn’t helped matters, especially with each option under center being equally underwhelming. Fantasy GMs can take no solace in the blame-game, however, and must put forth the lineup with the best fantasy potential regardless of individual talent. Chark is a case of talent being unable to overcome the situation, as evident by his current WR42 standing. Over his past five outings, Chark has been the WR37, WR53, WR72, WR94, and WR52. Managers can’t have faith in a turnaround at this critical stage.
The Bears are rarely a get-right spot for anyone, as they rate as the fourth-toughest opponent for fantasy receivers, yielding 26.2 points per game. That holds true in the lead-up to the fantasy finals, as Chicago has conceded 24.0 points per game over the last two weeks. Adam Thielen was the WR44 against Chicago last week and Chark has finished inside the top-44 just three times since Week 4. Detroit, Green Bay, and Minnesota did find success through the air against the Bears from Weeks 10-13, so all hope is not lost in this matchup. Still, there is no way a team with championship aspirations should be considering Chark.
Hayden Hurst vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Hayden Hurst’s targets have really fallen off lately, resulting in a crumbling of his previously safe floor. Without the targets, Hurst’s receiving yardage has plummeted. That spells major trouble for a tight end who does not frequent the end zone. Add in the fact that Hurst has been more successful with the currently-injured Julio Jones in the lineup, and you have a host of red flags surrounding this player heading into the finals.
Over his first nine games, Hurst averaged four receptions on six targets for 46 yards while scoring three times. That amounted to 8.6 fantasy points per game, situating Hurst as the TE7. Since that time, Hurst has been the TE35 and is averaging two catches on 4.4 targets for seventeen receiving yards. He has scored only once since Week 6.
The Chiefs haven’t been great against tight ends but did hold Jared Cook to a TE32 showing last week, and that was with Drew Brees and sans Michael Thomas. Matt Ryan finally managed to get it done without Julio Jones last week but we cannot bank on him doubling down on breaking such a long-standing trend once again. Prior to last week, Ryan had averaged just 218 passing yards in games without Julio and had four passing touchdowns compared to six interceptions. With questions surrounding Hurst’s usage and Ryan’s productivity, fantasy managers should stream their way to a fantasy title.
Teddy Bridgewater vs. Washington Football Team
Teddy Bridgewater has quietly been a top-ten quarterback in three of his last five games. That trend is unlikely to continue this week, as he faces off with a Washington team that has held opposing passers to a dismal 17.2 fantasy points per game this season, ranking eighth in the NFL. Russell Wilson managed only a QB28 performance against Washington last week and quarterbacks have gifted fantasy managers with just 14.4 points per game against this defense over the past five weeks.
Washington’s defense boasts the fourth-highest sack-rate in the league and has continuously forced quarterbacks to operate under duress. That strategy has resulted in opposing offenses scoring the third-fewest fantasy points against this defense, limiting the ceiling for a quarterback known more for a floor than a ceiling. Even the floor is in question in this one, as Washington ranks top-six in yards per attempt allowed, passing yards surrendered, passing scores conceded, and quarterback rating against. Leave Bridgewater on the sidelines if you want to find a fantasy trophy under your tree this holiday season.
Wayne Gallman Jr. vs. Baltimore Ravens
Wayne Gallman Jr. has officially lost his stranglehold on the lead job in New York. After averaging 17.9 opportunities per game over his previous seven contests, Gallman was held to just nine touches last week while not being targeted in the passing game. His snap rate dropped to 42% and it coincided with Alfred Morris surprisingly receiving only two fewer carries and Dion Lewis getting involved with 33% of the snaps. Adding further cause for concern, Devonta Freeman has been activated off injured reserve and is eligible to be active for this week’s game. While Freeman is not the player he once was, the Giants still entrusted him with the lead role over Gallman when Saquon Barkley was injured earlier this season. Gallman had been the RB6 from Weeks 7-14, so it is a tremendous letdown for fantasy managers to have to pivot at this juncture of the season.
Baltimore is middle-of-the-pack against fantasy running backs but did hold James Robinson in check last week. Robinson, the RB4 on the year, posted his first finish outside the top-24 since Week 5. With a lightened workload, Gallman will need to score in order to help fantasy managers. That point is further emphasized by the fact that Gallman hasn’t caught a pass in two of his last three games. The Ravens allow a rushing touchdown on one of every 41.6 attempts. Gallman might not see a quarter of those carries. The odds are not in favor of a big game and GMs should look elsewhere for an RB2 candidate this week.
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