To Draft or Not to Draft, That is the Question - Wide Receivers

August 30, 2018

When it comes to risky wide receivers who haven't been productive early in their career, is it worth a draft pick to hope for a breakout season? Drake Peaugh looks at three WR who are risk-reward picks in 2018 to determine whether they should be drafted.

Before we get started, I want to give a special thank you to everyone who has supported me in this journey of writing: my wife, in-laws, friends, and all the great people I’ve met in the sports industry. The RotoBaller group represents some of those fine people, as they have been nothing but considerate and positive. As for my current career in the golf industry, I absolutely love what I do. While it doesn’t entirely support the opportunities I’ve been given in the fantasy realm; it goes to show that if I can do this, literally anyone can. Now onto the good stuff!

I’m looking to discuss players that are on the “Island of Misfit Toys” or players that are “Dumpster Dives.” Players that will be drafted to sit on your bench or end up in the waiver wire to start the season. Part one will focus on three wide receivers and part two will cover three running backs.

As easily as I am making cases for these players, other analysts and experts may want nothing to do with them. My job is to convince you to take them late in your drafts as a dart throw or stash due to the tremendous upside, despite obvious risks. That begs the question...

To Draft or Not to Draft?

ADP Rankings below are average from five commonly used sites where ADP is calculated.

Kevin White, Chicago Bears

2018 ADP: WR102

Yes, I said that correctly. He was once at Christine Michael-level hype back in 2015 and 2016. A SPARQ score in the 99th percentile, standing at 6’3” with a 4.35 40-yard dash, and someone who was not just a workout warrior, but also a 1,400-yard receiver for West Virginia in 2014. HUGE stats, HUGE hype, and HUGE letdown for three years running.

Three words: “Matt Nagy Offense.”

As of this writing, he played with the backups behind Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller in a preseason matchup versus the Kansas City Chiefs. However, he scored his first NFL touchdown and first since he was at West Virginia in 2014, by burning Orlando Scandrick on a marvelous Stutter N’ Go route.

Good news for White, the Bears are continuing to develop his route tree, and as he progresses, Nagy’s offense is going to be a West Coast/Run-Pass Option hybrid with input from Mark Helfrich (former Oregon coach).

Camp reports, along with the small-sample-size vs the Chiefs, make it seem White still has great speed, acceleration, and a good first step. Incorporate these reports with an offense that will allow for yards after the catch (YAC), which is where he excelled in college, and there’s optimism for a player of his potential.

Camp reports also say the team is going to give QB Mitch Tribuisky, free-reign to utilize the big arm he used sparingly last year. With this, we will see a quicker, more aggressive offense than year’s past. Nagy’s offense, under Andy Reid, ranked sixth in points, and fifth in yards per game last year.

Looking at last season’s numbers for the Kansas City Chiefs, White has possible Albert Wilson upside with a stat-line that could reach up to 40 receptions, 500 yards, and 3-5 touchdowns.

Ideally, 12-team leagues with a deep bench or 14-team leagues is where he should be considered. He can be a stash option to start the season.

Ryan Grant, Indianapolis Colts

2018 ADP: WR79

You may be thinking, “Who? He wasn’t listed in my magazine guide I bought at the store in May! Blasphemy!” He currently has an ADP of WR79, which is nothing to get excited about. What do you get excited for? If you've been paying attention to our news, podcasts, and articles at RotoBaller, you would know that he is set to open the season as Andrew Luck’s #2 and primary slot receiver.

During Luck’s last full season in 2016, he had an interesting cast of offensive tools. He had two receiving tight ends that he targeted evenly and did the same with two young wide receivers in Phillip Dorsett and Donte Moncrief. Aside from the touchdown differences, seven for Moncrief, two for Dorsett, they each started seven games, and had almost identical targets and catches. Dorsett finished the season with 59 targets, 33 receptions, 528 yards, and two touchdowns. Moncrief had 56 targets, 30 receptions, 307 yards, and seven touchdowns. Dorsett obviously is the deep ball threat while Moncrief was that of a possession receiver, averaging 10.2 YPC that season. In 2015, Moncrief finished the season as the clear #2 with a stat line of 105/64/733/6. In 2014, Reggie Wayne was the No. 2 with a stat line of 116/64/779/2.

If you add the 2016 seasons of Moncrief and Dorsett together, you get a stat line of 105/63/835/9. Average for all three seasons would equal 109/64/782/6. This would be a WR25 in PPR last year ahead of names like Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper, Randall Cobb, and Sammy Watkins.

In Washington, Ryan Grant had a great year to help his free agency case. He had 45 receptions for 573 yards and four touchdowns. One great stat about Grant was his catch %. He finished the year at 69.2%. For receivers with at least 40 receptions, this was 13th-best in the league.

I think Grant makes a case to better his WR53 performance from last year. He should significantly outpace his projected ADP of WR79 by putting himself top 40 amongst receivers, and in flex discussions during the season, in PPR leagues.

Phillip Dorsett, New England Patriots

2018 ADP: WR 106

At the start of 2017, Dorsett was traded to the Patriots in exchange for Jacoby Brissett. Colts clearly won this trade as Brissett kept the team respectable, even with a terrible record, and Dorsett sat behind a lot of other players until injuries opened up playing time but without a return on that time played.

Reports from the Patriots’ camp have Dorsett working on more than being a Go route type of player. A lot of his routes ran last year resulted in deep routes, where he was regularly overlooked as the fifth, if not sixth option; only receiving more playing time when Chris Hogan injured his shoulder.

This year, the receiving and running back corps has been completely revamped. Notable names gone are Brandon Cooks, Kenny Britt, Danny Amendola, and Dion Lewis. Notable arrivals include Cordarelle Patterson and Sony Michel. Some target opportunities may be taken by both, particularly Sony Michel, but while Edelman is suspended, Dorsett holds value as the #2 on this team, and even number #3 on the outside when Edelman returns to his slot position. Opportunity knocks for Dorsett to the tune of 246 targets!

And no one wants to see an injury, but Edelman and Hogan have battled injuries that have taken up chunks of their careers. Also, Hogan is now 30 years old, and Edelman is 32, not ideal for receivers. Dorsett can receive more starts if issues arise, and can very well become a reliable target for Brady.

A perfect season for Dorsett is fulfilling his rookie year hype of being Brandon Cooks-esque. He has a 2017 Chris Hogan floor and a Brandon Cooks type ceiling. Expect a good first four weeks out of the gate as he has continued to develop more trust with Brady.

Look at the Patriots preseason game versus the Carolina Panthers. Brady found Dorsett on a screen, a crossing route, and threw him four targets where he caught all four. The Patriots have been working on Dorset’s route tree and we are seeing the culmination of that so far. Bold call says he is in flex consideration for at least the first four weeks and remains a viable fill-in through the season with a ceiling into WR3 territory. Look for a reasonable 60/750/5 stat line from Dorsett this year, putting him at an expected WR32 finish.

Look for part two, where we will discuss running back targets. Again, thank you to everyone who has supported me this far and please follow me on Twitter @DrakePFSA.

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