Tight Ends to Target in 2024 Fantasy Football Redraft Leagues - Part II

The tight end position has been a wasteland for the past few years. We had our top-three guys and then it seemed as though everyone else was the same. TE6 was the same as TE18. While that's not entirely true, in terms of impacting the wins and loss column, it's probably not much of an exaggeration. However, the tight end position has been infused with a bunch of talent the past two seasons. We've seen Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, and Brock Bowers all be drafted to re-energize what had been a dying position.

These young players are helping to make the tight end position cool again. Fantasy managers are taking noticed too because we have six tight ends going in the first five rounds. Even after that, there are plenty of tight ends going in the mid-round. This position is as deep as it's ever been. In this second entry into this two-part series, we'll be looking at and identifying five additional tight ends fantasy managers should be targeting this season. This is the second entry into this two-part series. The first edition can be found here.

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Dalton Kincaid: TE5, ADP 51

In 2023, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Trent Sherfield, and Deonte Harty combined for 284 targets, 178 receptions, 2,165 yards, and 17 touchdowns. All four of those players are no longer with the team. In 2022, Diggs, Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, and Jamison Crowder combined for 325 targets, 204 receptions, 2,748 yards, and 22 touchdowns. All four of those players are no longer on the team. In 2023, Davis, Diggs, Sherfield, and Harty combined to have 61 red-zone targets. Diggs and Davis accounted for 26 (!!!) end-zone targets. Both players ranked inside the top 20 in this category among receivers.

Bills targets per route without Stefon Diggs on the field over the last two seasons:

James Cook 31%
Dalton Kincaid 29%
Khalil Shakir 19%
Dawson Knox 18%
Gabe Davis 16%

(small sample warning)

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) May 14, 2024

Kincaid wasn’t fully unleashed as a rookie. With veteran Dawson Knox, the Bills brought Kincaid along slowly. He finished just 23rd in snap share at 65.6% and 13th in route participation at 82.9%. He had five games with a route share of less than 70%, which will not happen this upcoming season. We should expect his route participation to exceed 85% in 2024 and for him to never drop below 80% on any given week.

He had six games with a route participation rate of 85% or higher. He had seven targets in five of them, five receptions in five, and over 46 yards in four. He averaged 7.6 targets, 5.8 receptions, 58.5 yards, and 0.33 touchdowns per game. He had a 22.1% target share and a 23% target rate. Over 17 games, those per-game averages would amount to 129 targets, 99 receptions, 995 yards, and six touchdowns.

Alright... Dalton Kincaid might be really good.

Bills asked him to run intermediate and downfield routes against man coverage as a rookie. Don't see that often. pic.twitter.com/9HXWMqXwPh

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) May 14, 2024

Sam LaPorta overshadowed Kincaid’s rookie season, but Kincaid still finished with 91 targets, 73 receptions, and 673 yards. Those are some impressive numbers, considering Diggs and Davis were on the team, and Kincaid played just 65.6% of the team’s snaps. Kincaid was in the offense last year and appears to be the most talented pass-catcher on the team. Considering his rookie season's strength, he could flirt with 90 receptions, which gives him the potential to finish as the TE1.

Dallas Goedert: TE12, ADP 112

Goedert had an up-and-down season last year, but to be fair, so did almost every offensive player for the Eagles. Goedert averaged the most targets per game, so his efficiency metrics worsened. The entire Eagles’ offense had its wheels completely fall off in the second half of last season. In their first 11 games, Philly averaged 28.18 points per game, 364.27 total yards per game, and 231.00 passing yards. Including their Wild Card loss to Tampa Bay, in their final seven games, they averaged 18.85 points per game, 327.57 yards per game, and 218.14 passing yards per game. While the decrease in yardage wasn’t overly significant, their points per game fell by almost 10.

As you can see from the table, however, in 2021 and 2022, Goedert was one of the most efficient tight ends in the NFL. Considering that most of the Eagles’ offensive players struggled in the second half of the season, it shouldn’t be surprising to see Goedert bounce back closer to his 2021 and 2022 averages. Kellen Moore’s offense should have a positive impact in this regard.

In 2021, while still with the Cowboys, Moore’s offense, which featured CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Schultz, was very fantasy-friendly. Schultz finished with 104 targets, 78 receptions, 808 yards, and eight touchdowns. He was the TE6 with a 9.6 half-PPR PPG average. Schultz had similar usage in 2022, but the efficiency declined.

Dak Prescott missed five games due to injury, and Schultz missed two. Still, he finished with 89 targets, 57 receptions, 577 yards, and five touchdowns. He was the TE11 with a 7.8 half-PPR PPG average. Goedert is a more talented player than Schultz overall, giving fantasy managers something to look forward to.

The Philadelphia offense will be consolidated, which is great for fantasy football. It’s hard to imagine anyone other than Brown, Smith, Goedert, and Barkley touching the ball very much in the passing game. Barkley being a better pass-catcher than recent running backs could be a slight disadvantage for Goedert, but the overall running back target share is unlikely to change much. Barkley will likely garner a larger piece of the pie than previous starters.

The increased tempo and passing volume should give Goedert more opportunities in the passing game. In 2021 and 2022, Goedert displayed that he could be an elite pass-catching tight end. If there’s a downside to Goedert’s game, at least thus far, it’s been his red zone utilization and touchdown scoring.

I love TE Dallas Goedert for fantasy this season.

I know the tush push still exists, and the Eagles signed Saquon Barkley.

But new OC Kellen Moore loves to scheme up TEs near the red zone.

If you miss out on elite-level TEs, give me someone who is on a great offense and will…

— Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) June 22, 2024

In 2023, he finished with just 13 red zone targets, tied for 19th among tight ends. He finished 22nd with three end-zone targets. It was just as bad in 2022 when he finished 25th in red zone targets with 10 and 36th in end zone targets with two. However, Schultz had 21 red zone targets (sixth-most) and eight end zone targets (fourth-most). It was more of the same in 2021. Goedert had 17 red zone targets (18th), while Schultz had 26 (third). Goedert had two end zone targets (41st), and Schultz had five (21st).

Since 2021, Goedert has only 10 touchdowns, never scoring more than four in any season. Schultz had 13 in 2021 and 2022 alone, so there is reason for optimism. The tight end position had gotten quite strong over the last year, so while we can expect Goedert to have a bounce-back season, it’s difficult to rank him too much higher than he already is.

Fantasy managers can argue that he should be drafted ahead of Brock Bowers, who is currently being selected at TE11, but that’s just about as high as he can realistically be ranked. However, his TE12 price point is a nice value for fantasy managers because if Moore’s offense does what we expect, he has a good shot of outplaying his current ADP.

Pat Freiermuth: TE15, ADP 128

Freiermuth is likely a player many fantasy managers have forgotten about, especially after his dreadful 2023 season. Based on early drafting data, Freiermuth is available in the 11th round on as the TE15. That makes him one of fantasy football's best tight-end values this season.

Freiermuth struggled with an injury-plagued second season in 2023. He played just 64.0% of snaps compared to 70% in 2022. He had eight games with a snap share below 67% out of just 12 games, a 66.7% rate. In 2022, he had just five games out of 16 contests, a 31.2% rate. Injuries happen, and they can negatively impact a player’s performance. Freiermuth, no doubt, fell victim to that last season, but we shouldn’t forget what he did in 2022, just his second season in the league. Let me refresh your memory...

He posted top-10 numbers in basically every statistic across the board. Every statistic except total touchdowns, where he posted just two. Just two touchdowns despite having the fifth-most targets, sixth-most receptions, and 15th-most red-zone targets. That doesn't make much sense, but when you consider that his quarterback was Kenny Pickett, who has arguably been just as bad as Zach Wilson, it starts to make a lot more sense.

Since 2000, there have been 36 quarterbacks to attempt at least 450 passes in their first two seasons in the NFL. Pickett's 1.8%  touchdown rate is the worst, and the only player below 2.1%. For goodness sake, Zach Wilson and Josh Rosen are at 2.4%. Pickett had the sixth-worst quarterback rating and fourth-worst yard-per-attempt average. Through his first two seasons in the NFL, Pickett is in the same group as Wilson, Rosen, and Drew Lock. That's how bad he's been.

Freiermuth has had to deal with that in each of the past two seasons, but no more! This offseason, the Steelers signed Russell Wilson as their starting quarterback. Below, you'll see just how big of a difference even Wilson can be when compared to Pickett.

The numbers speak for themselves, but pay attention to their red-zone completion percentage and touchdown rate. Looking back at Freiermuth's 2022 season when he had just two touchdowns and a touchdown rate of just 2.0%, it's safe to point a lot of the blame at Pickett. Last season, Wilson's red-zone completion percentage was 18.5 percentage points higher, and his touchdown rate was 3.9 percentage points better. That difference is astronomical. If they each throw just 550 passes, the difference is 22 (!!!) touchdowns.

Wilson will likely be the best quarterback Freiermuth has ever played with in his young season. Even if Wilson falters, Pittsburgh also traded for Justin Fields. Fields helped Cole Kmet as the TE8 last year in half-PPR PPG. Kmet finished with 91 targets, 73 receptions, 719 yards, and six touchdowns. He was eighth in yards per route run and ninth in yards per target. It doesn't matter. Whoever is under center will be better than Pickett.

With Freiermuth fully healthy, we should see the player who started to emerge in his second season. If fantasy managers get that player along with a better quarterback from Wilson, as illustrated in the table above, it wouldn't be a shock to see Freiermuth finish inside the top 12 and possibly even the top 10. He did that already in 2022 with just two touchdowns and Pickett at the helm. Why can't he do it again this season?

Freiermuth is one of the best value picks at the tight-end position this summer, and if you don't want to draft a tight end in the first five rounds, he is the best late-round target for fantasy managers.

Tyler Conklin: TE20, ADP 167

Conklin has the ninth-most targets, eighth-most receptions, and 10th-most receiving yards among all tight ends. Sure, his receiving yards per game average drops him to 17th among 37 tight ends with at least 70 targets, but even that is significantly better than his current ADP suggests. Certainly, when he considers who his quarterback has primarily been, the lack of fantasy production begins to make sense. There have been 45 quarterbacks to attempt at least 300 passes since 2022. Here's where Zach Wilson ranks in just a few statistical categories out of those 45:

• 45th Completion Percentage (57.9%)
• 26th in Interception Rate (2.3%)
• 43rd in TD Rate (2.3%)
• 33rd in Yards Per Attempt (6.5)
• 37th in Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (5.9)
• 34th in Yards Per Game (188.5)
• 33rd in On-Target Rate (73.4%)
• 39th in Off-Target Rate (19.4%)
• 44th in Quarterback Rating (75.4)
• 44th in Success Rate (37.0%)
• 41st in Sack Rate (10.16%)
• Since 2022, the Jets have the second-fewest passing touchdowns in the league with 26.
• Since 2022, the Jets have the 10th-fewest passing yards in the league with 7,413.

The Jets will welcome back Aaron Rodgers this season. The difference between Rodgers and what the Jets have trotted out there at quarterback the past two seasons is going to be substantial, and quite honestly, that may not even be doing it enough justice. Rodgers' career completion percentage is 65.3%, 7.4 percentage points higher than Wilson's last two seasons. His 6.2% career touchdown rate is almost triple that of Wilson's. His career yard-per-attempt average is 1.2 yards better. His quarterback rating is 28.2 points higher. I mean, the difference is vast.

Remember where Conklin ranked the past two seasons in targets, receptions, and yards among tight ends? Top 10 in all three categories. Well, he's tied for 41st in touchdowns with three. He's tied with Jimmy Graham. Since 2022, Conklin has the 19th-highest full-PPR PPG average at 7.49 among 37 tight ends with at least 70 targets.

Imagine if he catches a few more touchdowns. What if Rodgers leads to Conklin getting just a few more receptions and yards? That really should be the expectation, which makes it very likely Conklin can outplay his current TE24 ADP. Now, that won't make him a league winner. He won't be a top-12 tight end, but could he be a solid TE2? That's in his range of outcomes.

Certainly, the Jets have added increased competition with Mike Williams in free agency and third-round rookie Malachi Corley. However, Williams is coming off a torn ACL and has recently struggled to stay on the field. It's possible, maybe even likely, that Williams isn't ready for the beginning of the season. Corley is a third-round rookie out of Western Kentucky and will transition to a significant increase in talent competition. There's no guarantee either player is ready to produce consistently this season. If either or both falters, Conklin could provide a nice positive return on investment for fantasy managers.

Jonnu Smith: TE24, ADP 186

Smith is an exciting player in this Miami offense, which is predicated on getting their players into open space and letting them make a play. This is something that Smith excels at. Despite finishing 19th in total targets (69) among tight ends, Smith still tied for second with two receptions of over 40 yards. He was among only 11 tight ends to register a 100-yard receiving game last season. Smith can make big plays. That skill set could be utilized even more under Mike McDaniel this year than Arthur Smith last year.

Among 23 tight ends with at least 50 targets, Smith finished third in yards per target (8.3), third in yards per reception (11.6), third in yards after the catch per reception (7.1), and fifth in receptions per broken tackle (8.3). This isn't the first time Smith has displayed this kind of upside after the catch. In his last six seasons in the NFL, Smith has averaged over seven yards after the catch per reception in five. He's also recorded a reception per broken tackle rate of under nine four times and under 15 five times.

He has displayed time and time again that once he gets the ball into his hands, he's a weapon and incredibly difficult to bring down. Imagine that skill set in McDaniel's offense, where he'll draw up plays to get Smith in space and the ball quickly. It's exciting, especially considering how cheap his draft cost is.

Due to the two alpha receivers the Dolphins have, Smith needs to make the most of his opportunities. That's because he has never been a big target-earner in his career. He has just three seasons with a double-digit target share and just one over 15% (15.3% in 2020). His route participation rate has undoubtedly impacted some of that because it's impossible to earn targets if you're not on the field. Smith has never cleared a 70% route participation rate and has been held below 50% on four occasions. One was his rookie year, and two others were while he was lost in the New England offense. However, he's never been a full-time player, which should create skepticism.

The only option behind Smith on the roster is Durham Smythe. He's been in the league for six years but has established a reputation as a strong blocking tight end. He's never had more than any of the following statistics in any season: 45 targets, 35 receptions, or 375 yards. Given that, fantasy managers should feel confident that Smith will at least be utilized as their primary pass-catching tight end, which should allow Smith to break that 70% route participation rate for the first time in his career. He was close last year at 69.4%.

His target-per-route run should give fantasy managers even more optimism. In six seasons, Smith has posted a target per route run rate of over 22% in five. The other were 18.8% (2023) and 17.3% (2018). His other five seasons included target-per-route run rates of 23.4% (2017), 22.0% (2019), 22.6% (2020), 30.6% (2021), and 26.2% (2022). This past season, Smith finished 12th among tight ends in yards per route run at 1.58. His 6.0 half-PPR PPG average ranked 20th last year among tight ends. However, the quarterback play in Atlanta did not do anyone any favors.

Last year, Atlanta finished 26th in total points and 17th in total yards. Their passing offense was even worse. The Falcons ranked 25th in pass attempts, 22nd in passing yards, and 26th in passing touchdowns. Miami finished second in total points and first in total yards. Their passing offense ranked 20th in attempts, first in yards, and fourth in touchdowns. Granted, Hill and Waddle are significantly better than Kyle Pitts and Drake London, but the weekly upside is much higher in this kind of offense.

Smith's upside will always be capped by his lack of target-earning due to Hill and Waddle, but he has the ability, skill set, offense, and quarterback to surprise people and finish as a mid-TE2. Without an injury to one of their top two receivers, finishing in the top 12 is a long shot, but Smith could end up solidly outplaying his ADP and finishing as a mid-TE2 where he's routinely being utilized as a streamer. Fantasy managers should be buying his skill set in McDaniel's offense.

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