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Antonio Losada looks at the average draft position (ADP) variation of tight ends to assess their situations for fantasy football. George Kittle, Trey McBride, and Darren Waller are examined.
Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position in which a player is drafted across multiple fantasy football drafts. It can be considered the price you must pay to draft and secure a player for your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is being selected early in drafts, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first few rounds if you truly want him.
However, it's worth noting that low or high ADP values are not gospel. Each fantasy GM has their own strategy and values players differently depending on what is most important for them in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs provide a useful gauge of the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against. With free agency and the draft finalized and only a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to examine how ADPs have changed over the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I will regularly highlight players at each skill position who have experienced significant fluctuations in their ADP since our last check, using data from FFPC drafts.
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Fantasy Football Tight End - ADP Fallers
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals barely bolstered their skill-position roster this past draft, with Michael Wilson being the only notable addition who could potentially occupy one of their top-4 wide receiver slots if things go according to plan.
Despite the rumors surrounding DeAndre Hopkins and potential trades prior to the NFL Draft, Arizona's offensive attack will most remain the same in the desert for this upcoming season. And that is definitely not great news for McBride.
During his rookie season in 2022, McBride struggled and had a year to forget. This coincided with Zach Ertz's first full season in Arizona after getting traded to the Cards in the middle of the 2021 campaign. Despite playing in only 10 games, Ertz nearly doubled McBride's production. McBride finished the year with 29 receptions on 39 targets for 265 yards and one touchdown, while Ertz put up 406 yards on 47 receptions (69 targets) and four touchdowns.
Considering the uncertainty surrounding Kyler Murray's short-term future as he recovers from his season-ending injury from last year, and a roster that was already horrible last season and has seen minimal changes, it makes sense for fantasy GMs to fade the second-year tight end. I'd do the same.
Darren Waller, New York Giants
Waller was one of the flashiest players traded this offseason, moving from Las Vegas to the blue side of New York to play alongside QB Daniel Jones this upcoming season. Waller exploded four years ago in 2019, playing all 16 games for the first time in his career breaking the 1,000-yard mark, finishing as the TE3 in PPR leagues that season.
As a veteran tight end now in his 30s, Waller improved the following year in 2020, finishing as the TE2. However, his playing time has been cut short the past two seasons due to injuries, playing in only 11 games in 2021 and nine games last season. Consequently, he finished as the TE17 and TE31 overall in PPR formats during those campaigns.
Waller is a proven performer and there is no denying that. The problem with him, of course, is his health. When he is available, he consistently delivers top performances. Even with a not-so-great QB in Derek Carr, Waller managed to put up monster numbers. That should stay the same in New York, catching passes from Jones.
The Giants have reconstructed their offense to a large extent, including bringing in Waller as their primary tight end and moving Daniel Bellinger to a TE2 role. They have also shuffled the wide receiver pecking order with the additions of Parris Campbell and rookie Jalin Hyatt.
While Waller's ADP has experienced a slight decrease, it's unlikely to drop further as long as we assume he can stay healthy. The Giants don't have a better pass-catching option in their receiving corps than Waller, so he should get big-time targets and put up numbers easily as long as he remains on the field.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers didn't need to make significant changes to their already strong offense during the offseason, which is precisely what they did, or didn't do, depending on how you look at it. San Francisco's obvious question mark lies in their quarterback room, though, with uncertainty surrounding Brock Purdy's availability at the start of the season and the shaky pairing of Trey Lance/Sam Darnold behind Purdy.
That's all you need to know about the slight drop in Kittle's ADP following the draft. In truth, it wasn't expected that Frisco would make any drastic moves leading up to the event. While there was a possibility of trading Lance, it would have been challenging to recoup all the assets they traded away to acquire him in the first place.
Kittle's ADP drop is very similar to Waller's situation, where concerns from fantasy GMs are likely more related to the quarterback situation than Kittle himself. However, I wouldn't be that worried about Kittle failing to produce TE1-level numbers regardless of who is throwing him the rock.
Hell, just look at what happened last season when Purdy emerged unexpectedly and performed at a GOAT level. Kittle has finished inside the top-4 tight ends in four of his last five seasons. His lone outlier was in 2020 when he finished as the TE19 while playing just eight games. Nothing to worry about here.
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