Tight End Fallers For Fantasy Football - ADP Analysis Before Training Camps

June 29, 2023

Antonio Losada looks at the average draft position (ADP) variation of tight ends to assess their situations for fantasy football. Irv Smith, Mike Gesicki, and Michael Mayer are profiled.

Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position in which a player is drafted across multiple fantasy football drafts. It can be considered the price you must pay to draft and secure a player for your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is being selected early in drafts, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first few rounds if you truly want him.

However, it's worth noting that low or high ADP values are not gospel. Each fantasy GM has their own strategy and values players differently depending on what is most important for them in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs provide a useful gauge of the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against. With free agency and the draft finalized and only a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to examine how ADPs have changed over the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I will regularly highlight players at each skill position who have experienced significant fluctuations in their ADP since our last check. I'll be using data from FFPC drafts.

Fantasy Football Tight End - ADP Fallers

Mike Gesicki, New England Patriots

The freshest New England Patriots tight end has been making notable strides during practice. In a recent session, he joined the receivers, indicating that his impact in games may come primarily from a receiving standpoint.

While Hunter Henry is expected to lead the Patriots tight ends in terms of snaps, Gesicki's versatility makes him a viable option as a big target in the middle of the field. That doesn't mean he will be anything remotely close to the team's new WR1 (that's JuJu Smith-Schuster for you), but Gesicki should at last gain--or better said, not lose--some ground when it comes to targets and looks from QB Mac Jones.

During OTAs, Gesicki and Henry have been seen on the field together, showcasing their compatibility and offering big-body looks to Jones, who has "expressed excitement" about working with Gesicki. Gesicki's fantasy upside is going to be there at least until the ball gets rolling in Week 1. Only when the season has started will we get a clear idea of where things stand in the receivers/tight-ends pecking order. Knowing what we know now, midway through June, the ADP fall is only partially understood.

Is Gesicki worth drafting at that position, though? I don't think so even if the ADP keeps falling, it would really need to tank. In the past five years, players ranking from 140-to-160 in PPR leagues have averaged 9.3 FPPG. Gesicki put up 5.8 FPPG last season and the Patriots won't offer the best environment for him to thrive. For now, I'd pass.

Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders

Rookie Mike Mayer is getting into the NFL as a second-round draftee in this year's draft. Only Dalton Kincaid (23rd overall) and Sam LaPorta (34th, one pick before Mayer) was taken before the Notre Dame product.

Truth be told, even with Darren Waller getting traded away from Las Vegas to New York, Mayer will still need to fight for targets against veterans Austin Hooper and O.J. Howard. The ADP dropped at the end of May but has now stabilized a bit and that's surely because of some reports coming out of Raiders camp throughout May.

One week from June, Mayer was labeled as the borderline TE2 of the team, only a hair below Hooper in the pecking order on the positional depth chart. That said, Mayer is seen as the best tight end of the class by many. He is also considered a good blocker and good receiver, which should give him more snaps in the long run as he adds multiple dimensions to the game.

In the past five years, among rookie tight ends, only three scored more than 98 PPR points through their freshman seasons. Just two of those three finished the year ranking better than 154th OVR in PPR leagues. Currently boasting an ADP around the 150th-OVR pick, I'd strongly recommend fading Mayer as he doesn't seem like a very valuable pick at that price.

Irv Smith Jr., Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals inked Smith to a deal earlier this offseason and instantly named him the TE1 of the organization. Is that bad? No. Could it be better? Of course, mostly because the Bengals are absolutely loaded at the wide receiver position with three impressive wideouts on the roster. Not to mention the presence of Joe Mixon (for now, as he might get suspended) in the backfield and all of the touches he can potentially receive.

Smith was reportedly named the TE1 back at the start of May and we haven't heard about the tight-end room since. Obviously, it would take a massive leap from Drew Sample to jump over him in the pecking order, but that's very unlikely, all things considered.

If you look closely, the ADP fall is barely noticeable. It's smaller than a full round in 12-team leagues so it's more about the trend fluctuating while on its way to stabilizing rather than any other crazy development taking place. Irv Smith finished between the top 25-to-45 in his three seasons in Minnesota, but he's also coming off his worst one, having only played eight games due to injury in 2022. He reached TE1-level points just once in 2022 (Week 2). I'd advise making Smith a top WW target rather than a late-rounder in drafts.

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