RADIO
Nicklaus Gaut looks at which of the young St. Louis Cardinals you should be targeting for fantasy baseball and who is better left alone.
The St. Louis Cardinals may have just gotten swept by Atlanta but don't let that take away from how stacked this lineup is set up to be in 2023. Of course, everyone covets the biggest names but value can always be found up and down in any good offense, even if they're batting down in the order or don't seem to bring a shiny fantasy profile.
Like Brendan Donovan, the Gold Glove second baseman with a ratchet set of eligible positions but no power and little categorical production that stands out. Or Nolan Gorman, whose power stands out but so does his lack of role, defense, and ability to hit left-handed pitchers. And super-prospect, Jordan Walker? He might bat down in the lineup but he's the newest hotness around, with a well of potential that seems unlimited. Making the team was obviously the first big step but the Cardinals also seem like one previously starting outfielder might have to be left out in the part-time rain.
You would have to trade for two of the above players (and one might cost a mint), while the other might still be available on the wire. But should you be trying to take an early April ride on any (or all) out of this Cardinal trio? In honor of this being the official opening month of the carnival season, let's imagine we gotta a pocketful of dollars just ready to be spent on funnel cakes and rides that probably haven't been recently inspected. Tickets, please.
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The Biggest Ticket
Jordan Walker, 3B (and soon OF)
Jordan Walker is like seeing a beacon of fun after winding up at a rundown carnival that otherwise has a bunch of shoddy boring rides, of which about half are currently working. A shiny, new roller coaster in a sea of rusty Tilt-a-Whirls and giant slides. It's no secret, either. Everyone there knows, and the line is a mile long.
Let's cut to the chase; Walker is one of the most exciting prospects St. Louis has had in years and this is that five-tool, do everything, smash lasers, steal bags, kind of energy. Ronald Acuna Jr. energy. Julio Rodriguez energy. Jo Adell en-...Well, never mind. Maybe those comparisons are a bit too hyperbolic but that is the type of ceiling we're talking about. A young player with unlimited tools and athleticism that rocketed through the minor leagues and has now made it to the majors at the scant age of 20 years old. Gold.
The biggest question going in was a matter of playing time but Lars Nootbaar heading to the IL after one game has answered things early, with Walker starting all five games in right field. Even when he returns, the Cardinals seemed to have already tipped their hand, with Dylan Carlson falling right out of a starting role. That's what the tea leaves were saying when they offered Carlson in an offseason deal for Sean Murphy and that's what the early lineups are telling us now.
The tickets are bought and it's time to sit back and enjoy whatever ride comes. He might not go full 2022 J-Rod but he has the tools to give five-category production – okay, fine; four and a half. A much more than-average batting average might not be there right away given the swing-and-miss he has previously shown. But still! Pretty, pretty good. At least, that's what I, and my #135 overall share in the Online Championship, are hoping for. Wink.
The Lotto Ticket
Nolan Gorman, 2B (technically)
We all know the deal with carnival games, right? You're probably not winning that giant stuffed panda. Or getting the ring around that goldfish bowl. Think you just won big after popping three balloons? Wrong. You actually need to pop six balloons with just three darts. Now, here's your framed 8x10 of Def Leppard – just 19 more and you can trade them in for one of the butterfly knives under the counter.
Every once in a while, the gods of physics are on your side and you inexplicably walk out with a stuffed animal the size of your kid and a minor hand wound after pulling out said butterfly and saying, "Watch this." And that's kind of like what you're signing up for with Nolan Gorman, who, unlike Donovan and Walker, is available in many leagues.
Gorman has big-time power that he's shown off at every level, hitting a total of 30 HR in just 501 PA across Triple-A and the majors last season. And he's already started off hot in 2023, posting multi-hit games in two of four starts, including a two-home-run game against Toronto.
He's red-hot! Quick, everyone race to the wire to pick him up!
Hold up – unfortunately, the playing time concerns he had going into 2023 are no different than what they were in the preseason, as where Gorman can play, and who can he succeed against, still leaves him a very narrow path to a full-time role.
Let's do a fact-check:
- Gorman is a first baseman in his glove and soul, treading water (and booting balls) at third base in the minors, who was only "converted" to 2B in order to get him to the majors sooner. But make no mistake – this is just a DH doing some bad cosplay and the Cardinals will not risk putting him in the field more than they have to.
- DH seems the obvious choice as he mostly just has to outhit Juan Yepez (and Alec Burleson). However, having it all to himself would require him to be able to hit LHP...Or, maybe just be passable...Or, maybe be anything other than no-good awful? I'm not holding my breath. Gorman couldn't hit lefties in the upper minors (2022 at Triple-A: .180/.270/.333, 40% K%), and hasn't yet in his limited exposure in the majors (.125/.300/.250, 36% K%). And the Cardinals don't seem very inclined to let him try more. With Donovan getting the night off on Tuesday and a rookie left-hander on the mound, it was Juan Yepez at DH and Taylor Motter who got the start at 2B. Sorry, but if you can't beat out Taylor Motter, you probably OLI.
Take the above and you're left walking a difficult road to fantasy success. The best-case scenario is he's on the strong side of a DH platoon that "might" fill in at second base occasionally. Oh, and even when he is starting, the chances of him being pinch-hit for will ALWAYS be high, whether to get that frying pan glove off the dirt or because the opponent has (wisely) brought in a lefty reliever. These are not grounds ripe for a fantasy breakout.
If you're in a league with daily moves and a deep bench, sure, take a ride on Gorman and try to stream yourself some homers. Make no mistake; he can definitely do that; as long it's a right-handed pitcher, that is. Even though he can bring the boom, the unstable role says he going to remain a big no for me, dawg – I'd much rather check and see if Karl wants to hang out behind his trailer with me and my friend Jay.
The Sneakiest Ticket
Brendan Donovan, 2B/3B/OF (plus 1B/OF on Yahoo)
This is like getting on the teacups – even if it's being run by a shirtless guy named Karl who sounds like he might just have a touch of the black lung, you're almost certainly going to leave with as many appendages as you came on with. There's just only so much damage that can be done.
Donovan was a sneaky fantasy success in 2022, slashing .281/.395/.379, with 5 HR,64 R,45 RBI, and 2 SB. Sure, nothing there seems earth-shattering, but it also was only over 468 PA, as he didn't get called up until late April and didn't start locking in a full-time job until near mid-May. Once he did, he never let go, staying on the field for most games and earning eligibility everywhere but catcher.
There we build the base of his fantasy safety because, in a lineup full of good bats that deserve to eat, Donovan's flexibility already gives him the leg up on the competition to earn a full-timer's share of PA. He's the starting second baseman but if our later lotto ticket needs that spot occasionally, Donovan can still shift over to almost any other spot on the field. And as any good St. Louisian will tell you, the Cardinals love themselves a player who can play good defense all over the field, get on base, and rarely strike out. Like, love, loves them.
And to just mention that Donovan can get on base, is to sell him very short, as he's been an OBP monster since Day 1:
| Season | Level | G | PA | HR | SB | AVG | OBP |
| 2019 | A | 113 | 480 | 8 | 4 | .266 | .377 |
| 2021 | A+ | 25 | 109 | 2 | 7 | .295 | .385 |
| 2021 | AA | 50 | 219 | 4 | 8 | .319 | .411 |
| 2021 | AAA | 33 | 131 | 6 | 4 | .288 | .389 |
| 2022 | AAA | 16 | 65 | 1 | 0 | .298 | .385 |
| 2022 | MLB | 126 | 468 | 5 | 2 | .281 | .394 |
My math might be off but that sure looks like a .377 OBP is the lowest mark of his young career. Not bad! Even if he gets on base a ton, won't he be hurt by batting down in the order again? Excellent question, astute reader but fortunately someone at Cardinals finally said "Hey, instead of using Tommy Edman and his ~.320 OBP at leadoff, why don't we try known OBP monster, Brendan Donovan? It might just be craziest enough to work!"
Donovan spent the majority of his time at leadoff in September of last year and stayed there for each of the Cardinals' first four games this year got a night off on Tuesday (but pinch-hit) before getting right back to leadoff on Wednesday afternoon. The Cardinals seem to be telling us clearly – this is the 2023 leadoff hitter for one of baseball's best lineups, people. IE. Very, very, valuable.
How valuable? In 2022, Donovan finished as the #144 hitter according to an SGP evaluation; not too bad considering it came in less than 475 PA. But if we just prorate his numbers out to the 600 PA that would be more befitting (on the very low end) of a leadoff hitter on a good team, Donovan would've jumped up to the #99 hitter by raw SGP (unadjusted for position). But give him the 650 PA that still wouldn't be a stretch given the team around him and he reaches the top-75.
But what about the dongs, Nicklaus‽‽‽ Besides not being a runner, Donovan hit just 5 HR in his 468 PA last season. Piles of PAs and the runs collected from hitting leadoff for the Cardinals are certainly valuable but it's hard to reach the fantasy moon while hitting fewer than 10 HR. However, while his current profile limits his ceiling, the floor will still make him a solid MI on your roster.
Just don't get caught up dreaming about ceilings that just aren't possible. Remember, this ain't no roller coaster – we're still talking about the teacups.
Fever Dream Interlude
However...What if? What if there is more than meets the eye to Karl, our shirtless teacup operator? Maybe our sweet Karl is actually a secret genius, spending his nights solving impossible math problems on a chalkboard hung on the truck of the guy who runs the airbrushed t-shirt stand. And when you palm him a fiver just so you have an excuse to say, "Hey. Karl. Good to see you.", maybe Karl glimpses humanity and decides to reward you with the secret switch he built that turns the #4 teacup into an enclosed 4D screen experience that makes Avatar look like James Cameron drew it in colored pencils after a whiskey-fueled viewing of "Dances with Wolves".
Well, taking that ride would be just like if Brendan Donovan suddenly started hitting home runs. Exactly. Like. That.
Donovan tapping more power doesn't even need to be crazy given how low the starting point is. Going back to our earlier prorated experiment Donovan already would've been a top-75 hitter with 650 PA, even hitting just 7 HR. If you double that number, he'd move up 10 spots. Triple it and he's now a top-50 type. Again, we're talking about Brendan Donovan.
"Oh, la-di da-di da - isn't that fun! Why don't we just wave our magic wand everywhere and give power to all the light sticks! Doo-doo-doo; lookie-lookie, here's top-20 hitter Myles Straw, and, well if it isn't the #1 overall hitter, Luis Arraez! Isn't this fun?"
You know, I'm starting to pick up some sarcasm. But also, I get it. We can't just increase fantasy value by arbitrarily assigning skills that aren't in a player's profile. Doesn't work that way.
And yet! Donovan has already hit two home runs in 2023 after hitting four in spring training – the first of which was a nearly 106 mph rocket that was two ticks harder than any of his home runs in 2022. Small sample hum-bug, I know. This power burst didn't just come out of the blue, it's coming after Donovan has made very specific changes in his approach, stance, and bat, in the name of hunting bolts.
Donovan spent his offseason hitting five times per week and having his swing broken down by the baseball scientists at the Marucci Clubhouse. And one of the things they came away with was that Donovan's grip strength was high enough to use a heavier bat – and one with the type of "hockey puck" knobs that power hitters have started switching to:
I grip well, I jump well, and my horsepower test was good, so they showed me that I could swing a little heavier bat,” Donovan said. “Being a right-hand-dominant, left-handed hitter, I want to rip [the bat’s knob] through, and adding a little weight allows me to have that connection between my hands and body. Then, it’s simple physics – if I can swing this bat faster and it’s heavier, then I can hit the ball harder.”
“That’s the big thing – I’m not really swinging harder; I’m just learning to use my body more efficiently,” said Donovan, who also adopted a more upright stance. “Nothing changes with my swing; it’s just that my body is loading better so that I can swing the bat faster.
Unfortunately, this isn't 2022 and Donovan likely isn't available in anything but the shallowest leagues. However, I do think he's one of the better early-season trade targets available, as he combines a really high floor that is unlikely to hurt you, as well as some possibly untapped breakout potential. Plus, his boring profile and low fantasy Q-factor probably won't make your potential trade partners grip him too tightly.
The time is prime – go get that ticket. And I'll do the same.
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