July 14, 2016

Last week I covered bargain batters who outperformed their draft day expectations. Today we will take a clairvoyant look in the near future to identify some players that could be acquired for a pittance, whose second half yield could help trailing teams get back into contention.

We will be taking in this view from the data-driven underbelly of the monolithic beast that is the sabermetric baseball world, so prepare your minds first with a few mental calisthenics. Maybe a multiplication table or two. Some flash cards...or whatever suits your fancy.

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Players To Consider Buying Low On

Adrian Gonzalez (1B, LAD)

Perhaps not the most enthralling candidate on the list, it seems as if Gonzalez has been in the majors for the better part of three decades. But I ensure you that Gonzalez, playing in his 13th season, is only 34 years old.  And as we witness what 40-year old David Ortiz is accomplishing in this, his 20th season, we can cast aside the mere thought that age has been the culprit in the downward power arc we have seen in the first half from the Dodgers first baseman.

How much of a power outage have we seen this first half? With just seven balls leaving the yard in 313 at-bats, his 600 at-bat home run rate would project to a career low of thirteen. While gone are the days that saw him post 30 to 40 round-trippers, Gonzalez's proven career track record alone should keep owners from running towards the nearest high ledge and casting down their own personal downward-spiraling arc.

Locating the source of this problem is quite easy and simple to explain. Gonzalez is hitting ground balls at a 50.2% rate - higher than at any point in his career - ground balls that have also come at the expense of his fly ball rate - which stands at 25.5% - also a career worst. The probable explanation? Back pain. Gonzalez played through a level of pain last season and this season has seen another bout return in full force. This quote at the end of May says all that needs to be said:

“You take a swing and it hurts,” he said. “Then you go up there and swing with less intensity and that changes your swing.”

If you have ever had back problems at any point in your life, you can certainly empathize with this comment, but imagine batting against the best pitchers on the planet, day in, day out, when it hurts just to move.

The bad news here is that if the pain does not subside at any point this season, the hopes of a full turnaround diminish to the point of near-zero, so a tactical move to acquire Gonzalez on the cheap is only advisable for those teams trailing in the standing with nothing to lose. But if that last comment has you nodding your head in agreement, then read on, as there are certainly some glimmers of hope to discern.

Gonzalez's batted ball profile, outside of the spike in ground balls, remains on a similar plane as previous seasons; the Line Drive rate matches up with historical values and the spray chart still indicates that Gonzalez is using all fields admirably. More recently, the month of June has seen his Line Drive percentage reach 28% - nearly six full percentage points above his career average. And while the June/July ground ball rate of 46.7%/44.1% remain above his career mark, they are now trending in the right direction. An additional sign of life? The abbreviated month of July has so far seen him post a .429/.523/.629 slash line.

There's no doubt that a recommendation to acquire Adrian Gonzalez is a risky one, but given his track record and recent upward-trending momentum, teams at the back of the pack will need to cash in on a few lottery tickets in order to get back in the hunt - Gonzalez could just be one of them.

Justin Turner (3B/1B, LAD)

We stick with the Dodgers and another player that has struggled out of the gate. Turner's abysmal first two months of the season have blinded many owners to the reality that in the months of June and July, he has submitted near-elite counting stats. And while many savvy owners have already punched their ticket to the Justin Turner Big Hits Parade, the overall ownership levels are too low for what is sensible.

Understandably, the decision to drop Turner in the early run was made straightforward by his complete lack of production. The month of April and May saw him combine for a pedestrian three HR and 16 RBI in 166 at-bats, statistics nowhere near worthy of a starting spot in any format. Turner's struggles in the month of May are of particular note, as he posted a line drive rate of just 18.9%. To put that into context, the second worst line drive rate he has posted in any month this season was 25.4% in April. For his career, he averages a 25.2% line drive rate. But that, in turn, leads us to a decidedly apt question. With a line drive rate that was right in line with his career norm, why the dire results in the month of April? The answer that we turn to the inordinate number if infield fly balls that Turner hit that month. In fact, his April rate was an astonishing 16.7% - astonishing because this was TEN percentage points higher that his career average.

So enough of the statistical gibberish, you say - let's translate this data to simpler terms. Turner's poor start was not a case of bad luck, instead it may be safe to speculate that recovery from knee issues in the off-season hindered the mechanics of his swing. But if the month of June is any indicator, Turner appears to have put that issue behind him - the incredible hard hit rate of 48.3% can certainly attest to this dramatic change.

Taking the depth of the 3B position into account, Justin Turner is still not a must-own commodity, but deep leagues and those that utilize a CI position should take note.

Jose Abreu (1B, CHW)

In Abreu's short MLB stint, he has proven to be as consistent as the Sunday paper - eclipsing 30 HR and 100 RBI in each of his first two seasons. How quickly that production has been forgotten though, after a first half that has seen precipitous drops to his counting stats, power, and batting average. A top-five option at 1B entering the season, Abreu now resides alongside the likes of waiver wire fodder Mark Reynolds, Joe Mauer, and Ryan Zimmerman. Hardly enviable company.

Those searching for a quick-and-easy recommendation to acquire the White Sox slugger, just look to the nearly 1,200 at-bats Abreu has accumulated over his major league career and assume the sample size is large enough that by the end of the season, the stats will rebound to what we have come to expect. For those looking for more proof, please read on.

Abreu's approach at the plate this season, closely resembles his historical norms - K% and BB% at or near expected levels and minimal fluctuation to the amount of pitches - in and out of the zone - where a swing was offered. His overall contact rate of 76.4% is two-tenths of a percentage point higher than last season and over three points higher than his breakout rookie season.

Where the 2016 version of Jose Abreu differs from his previous iterations, has been a stark decrease in ISO and SLG. Of course, with the lack of power exhibited, those drops are to be expected. The underlying current pulling on those statistics reveal themselves in the batted ball profile - decreases to the line drive rate and an increase in soft contact that has seemingly borrowed directly from his flagging hard hit percentage.

As we search for signs of hope, we see a couple glimmers off in the distance. Namely, a July line drive percentage that reverts back to slightly above his career average, albeit in a small sample size. But, hey, it's hope! And hope is a good thing, perhaps the best of things. And no good thing ever dies. At least that's what Andy Dufresne would tell us. What Andy couldn't tell us (blame the mid-20th century prison system) is that the soft hit rate has seen a dramatic drop over the past two months as well. It's also worth mentioning his .224 ISO in June - a mark that is a few points above his career average.

While we certainly have to dig a bit further to dredge hope from Abreu's first half - there are signs...that are...somewhat encouraging. While not an ideal buy-low option, teams that are looking up the standings, seeing only the mountain to climb, must take certain risks. Whether this is a risk worth taking is now up to you.

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