Are these things all possible? Sure. However with the trajectory of his skills over the first three seasons, I'm not banking on it. I would take him in a draft at the right price, but my ranking is quite off from his ADP. He's being drafted in most leagues around the 160 mark while I have him sitting outside of my top 300.

Chapman has been about as dominant as any pitcher could be over the last 4 seasons. He's accumulated no less than 33 saves each year and much more impressively has averaged an astounding 15.40 K/9. He has simply dominated NL batters, so how could I possibly be down on Chapman?

A little perspective, I'm only down on him compared to others projections and his ADP. Do I think he could still be a dominant closer... yes. But at the same time, I think there is a good amount of risk and uncertainty that comes with him this season. Here are a number of factors I took into account when I created my projections for Chapman:

• He had a poor finish to the season in 2015 (compared to normal Chapman) which concerned me just a bit.
• He not only changed teams, but went from the NL to the AL, and AL East which has a ton of great bats, besides Tampa Bay. (They can still be pesky)
• There are 2 other elite arms in the bullpen, arguably the best non-closers in baseball in Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances. Also, Miller already had proven success closing for the Yankees. If Chapman was to pitch back to back days, Miller would likely snag save opportunities to keep Chapman fresh through the year.
• I project the Yankees to only have an average chance for save opportunities. While Vegas has the Yankees projected as the 4th best team in the AL (I'd take the under), I'm not sure how many of those games are going to be close games for save opportunities.
• Chapman has off the field issues, and while we don't know if he might face any type of discipline, it's just another red flag to consider.
• No one has thrown as many 100+ mph pitches over the last 3 seasons and it's not even close. Hell, add up every pitcher in baseball for 3 full seasons and Chapman still has more. That's a tremendous amount of arm strain, and while he's been seemingly fine, it's in the back of my mind as a concern. Circling back to my first point about Chapman, I didn't like the way he ended 2015 and I wonder if something mechanical had to do with the decline.

Even factoring in all of these concerns, I still have him 8th on my big board of relief pitchers. That's a huge drop off however compared to everyone else's top 1-3 closer ranking. If he fell to me at the right spot, I would take him in a draft. I think that's very unlikely knowing how the rest of the world views him. There are very likely other closers I'd take in his place.

Cole Hamels

Ranking 80 | ADP 69

Hamels is a starter that most fantasy baseball fans are relatively high on from year to year. I will concede that he is a good pitcher, however one of the more over-rated early round picks this year in my opinion. Looking back at the last few seasons he has consistently been projected as a top 20 pitcher, and this year is no different. His current ADP has him right at 20th among starters and roughly the 67th player overall selected. I would argue this year, he doesn't have a chance of giving you a good return on investment in that spot.

Looking at my rankings and projections, he's an early round selection that I have the greatest variance compared to ADP data. I'm projecting him to be the 32nd SP off my board and falling all the way to 151 overall. Everyone that supports him has the same argument:

• 6 years in a row he's topped 200+ IP
• He always strikes out a ton of guys
• He's now on a much better team and will win more games

Most people would say that these are very important points and all key factors when thinking about a starting pitcher. While these are fair points and will lead to a certain level of success, they don't tell the entire story. Here are my counter points why this is the year Hamels will regress.

His innings are catching up to him.  One of the biggest positives Hamels has going for him is his consistency. Year in and year out, he pitches 200+ innings. You can count on him to provide volume for your team with better than average production, at some points in his career, excellent production.

Hamels is no spring chicken anymore though. He's turning 33 this year and entering his major league 11th season. In addition, because he's been so reliable, he's amassed 2013.2 innings over the last 10 seasons.

Last year, Hamels posted the highest BB/9, HR/FB ratio, and WHIP since his 2010 campaign. These were all even more down when you look at his switch from the NL to the AL mid-way through last season (leading into my next point). Was that the beginning of the downturn in his career? We shall see this season.

No more automatic outs from pitchers. While this is just common sense for many, now always facing a DH instead of a pitcher, it's natural to expect some regression in his metrics even if he pitches at the same level as last year. Just in his own division, Albert Pujols, Nelson Cruz, Evan Gattis, and to a lesser extent Billy Butler, are all immense improvements over any pitcher he would face in the NL.

There is a reason year after year NL pitchers consistently allow less runs than AL pitchers. The AL West is not the NL East.  Over the last 10 seasons, Hamels has pitched in the weakest hitting division in baseball. While the weak teams have rotated, there are always 2-3 below average lineups in that division.

The Marlins have had a bad lineup for a decade, the Mets also usually do and recently so have the Braves. Couple that with getting to face a pitcher multiple times per game, he's been in an environment that has been easy to succeed in for any pitcher. The AL West has many more big bats and better lineups overall.The Astros have tons of power. Seattle is improved and pretty strong 1-9. While the Angels are down in my opinion, Pujols, Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun all have big power. Oakland doesn't have a lot of power, but they have an order that makes every out a tough out. The AL, compared to the NL, sees more pitches in general also and I expect that to wear his overall IP down a tick as well. Altogether, just a much less favorable division to pitch in.

Look at his actual production. He's good, but...Hamels has a career ERA of 3.31. That all came in the NL East. In addition, two of the last three years have been over 3.60. He has a career WHIP of 1.15 and again has been worse than that 2 of the last 3 years. As mentioned before, he will be 33 this year and is very likely past his peak years for production. It's save to expect some natural regression.

There is simply better pitching talent in baseball. This is in no way the fault of Hamels, however there is currently an influx of great pitching. I have Hamels projected at an ERA of 3.60, a WHIP of 1.18 and 191 strikeouts. That's a solid season and I think very reasonable Hamels reaches those numbers. The problem is, I have 31 pitchers that are projected better.

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