X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Three NL Outfielders Set To Bust in 2020?

Sam Chinitz spotlights three National League outfielders who could bust in 2020 fantasy baseball based on their current draft ADP.

A good portion of busts each year are the result of freak injuries, but some players are particularly risky. Spotting those bust candidates and avoiding them early in drafts can be a difference-maker for fantasy teams. 

Although a delayed and shortened season has helped some players recover from injuries and boost their fantasy values, it’s also thrown a wrench in some player’s expected playing time and made certain players riskier. As a result, bust candidates this year may be somewhat untraditional.

National League outfielders appear to be generally well-priced towards the top of drafts this season, but the group isn’t immune to relatively high-profile bust candidates. The players below are relatively likely to fall well short in terms of production this year and should be avoided in drafts. 

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Garrett Hampson (2B/OF, COL)

ADP: 183

Hampson showed little in 105 games last season to warrant excitement coming into 2020 and he appears to be a likely bust candidate this year. Hampson’s two primary strengths are his speed and contact ability, but neither is strong enough to make him worthy of draft consideration anywhere near his 183 ADP.

Hampson’s 8.3% swinging-strike rate from last season was solid, but his 60.7% z-swing rate resulted in a high 21.3% called-strike rate, driving a higher-than-average 26.9% strikeout rate. As a result, Hampson’s contact ability has failed to shine through, and will likely continue to do so unless his z-swing rate improves.

Combined with his abysmal contact quality, Hampson’s lackluster strikeout rate craters the value of his speed on the basepaths. Thanks in part to a lack of power indicated by his 83.2 mph average exit velocity and 25.7% hard-hit rate, Hampson posted a weak .329 xwOBA on contact last season.

Although Hampson’s speed should allow him to consistently post a wOBA higher than his xwOBA, Hampson’s poor z-swing rate and contact quality suggest that his xwOBA is likely to sit below .300 this year, and his OBP should sit below .315. Furthermore, Hampson doesn’t appear to have a clear path to consistent playing time on the Rockies depth chart. 

Hampson’s lack of clear playing time and likely-to-be low OBP combine to suggest that he’s unlikely to steal more than 20 bases in 2020 (based on a 162-game season). Since Hampson offers little else in the way of fantasy value, that makes him a bust candidate worth avoiding in drafts.

 

Victor Robles (OF, WAS)

ADP: 70

Robles posted a .745 OPS with 28 stolen bases last season, but his reliance on stolen bases make him a bust candidate this year. According to Nick Mariano’s Expected Draft Value research, hitters who steal at least 20 bases largely exist in a distinct tier, but most aren’t worth Top 100 picks without exceptional non-stolen base production.

According to Nick’s research, here’s how the most valuable stolen base-focused hitter compared to Robles’ performance from last year (Robles’ draft cost is his 2020 ADP):

Draft Cost R RBI BA HR SB
Most Valuable Stolen-Base Focused Fantasy Player 70.1 85 64 0.285 16 23
Robles 70 86 65 0.255 17 28

Robles effectively has to match his production from last season to be worth his 70 ADP. Leaving the nuances of Robles’s 2020 projections aside, his likely to be relatively unimpressive contributions in non-stolen base categories make him particularly susceptible to bust if he misses any games this year.

Based on his per-game stolen base rate from last year, Robles would have stolen 11 bases in a 60 game season. One 10-game stint on the injured list would decrease his stolen base total from 11 to 9 in a 60 game season, taking Robles’s per-season stolen base rate down from 18% to 15%. For context, that means that instead of stealing 29 bases per 162 games like he did last year, Robles would have stolen 24 bases per 162 games.

Take another look at the graph above and estimate where Robles’s expected draft value would be if he stole 24 bases instead of 28 in 2019. Sure, it could be as high as 70, but since Robles’ average is so poor that it seems unlikely. More likely, Robles’ draft value would fall below 114, where EDV calls for a stat line of .266-15-61-80-24. Missing more than 10 games would leave Robles worth little more than a late-round pick.

Robles isn’t terribly likely to miss time in 2020, but prior research suggests that he has a roughly 36% chance of hitting the IL this year. Given that missing time would demolish Robles’s fantasy value, that chance makes him disproportionately likely to bust in 2020.

 

Michael Conforto (OF, NYM)

ADP: 116

Conforto was diagnosed with an oblique strain on March 11th, and although he’s taken some batting practice as recently as April, he still hasn’t been declared game-ready. Setbacks during recoveries from oblique injuries are relatively common, and it can be difficult to gauge a hitter’s status without them facing live pitching.

As a result, Conforto doesn’t seem to be out of the clear in terms of suffering a setback. If Conforto does miss time to start the season because of a setback, his fantasy value should suffer significantly. Even 10 games on the injured list would cost a player 16% of total games in a 60 game season, the equivalent of losing 26 games in a 162 game season. 

Since Conforto’s risk of a setback is high compared to other injured outfielders, his risk of being a fantasy bust this year is also especially high. Conforto’s health should become more clear during Spring Training 2.0, but until then his outsized chance of missing time makes him a bust candidate.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Gomber48 mins ago

Scratched From Rehab Start With Shoulder Inflammation
Zack Wheeler59 mins ago

Records 10 Strikeouts
1 hour ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals1 hour ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Aroldis Chapman1 hour ago

Earns First Save Of The Season
Garrett Crochet1 hour ago

Works Eight Strong Innings
Tutu Atwell1 hour ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Rafael Devers1 hour ago

Finally Delivers At The Plate
Tampa Bay Buccaneers1 hour ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Xavier Edwards2 hours ago

Collects Four Hits
Pete Alonso2 hours ago

Comes Up Clutch
Jackson Merrill3 hours ago

Goes Deep After Inking Nine-Year Extension
Jrue Holiday4 hours ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets4 hours ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Luis Castillo4 hours ago

Finally Beats The Tigers On Wednesday
Al Horford4 hours ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Seiya Suzuki4 hours ago

Carries Cubs Offense With Two Homers, Five RBI
Kristaps Porzingis4 hours ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet4 hours ago

Out Versus Utah
Dennis Santana4 hours ago

Picks Up First Save Of The Year
Evan Phillips4 hours ago

Tony Gonsolin, Evan Phillips Starting Rehab Assignments
Dean Wade4 hours ago

Sidelined On Wednesday
George Springer4 hours ago

Hits First Homer In Win Over Nationals
Alex Bregman5 hours ago

Considering Using Torpedo Bat
Trae Young5 hours ago

Expected To Suit Up On Wednesday
Freddie Freeman5 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Ozzie Albies5 hours ago

Moving To Leadoff Spot On Wednesday
Joel Embiid5 hours ago

Will Undergo Arthroscopic Surgery On His Left Knee
Evgeni Malkin5 hours ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Freddy Peralta5 hours ago

Dazzles In No-Decision Against Royals
Filip Chytil5 hours ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Jackson Chourio5 hours ago

Picks Up Three Hits, First Homer In Extra-Innings Win
Declan Chisholm5 hours ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Michael Harris II5 hours ago

Sitting Against Lefty On Wednesday
Keaton Wallace5 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Wednesday
Samuel Girard5 hours ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Gunnar Henderson6 hours ago

To Make Another Rehab Appearance On Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta6 hours ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Paul Skenes6 hours ago

Wins His First Game Of The Season
Eeli Tolvanen6 hours ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz6 hours ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
7 hours ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
7 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
7 hours ago

Emeka Egbuka To Fall To Round 2?
Los Angeles Rams8 hours ago

Rob Havenstein Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Cleveland Browns9 hours ago

Mike Hall Likely To Miss Offseason Program After Having Knee Surgery
New England Patriots9 hours ago

Christian Barmore Expected To Be Ready For Offseason Workouts
10 hours ago

Saints Expected To Visit With Quinn Ewers
Jake Moody10 hours ago

49ers To Bring In Competition For Jake Moody
Pittsburgh Steelers10 hours ago

Steelers In Play To Draft A Running Back
Green Bay Packers12 hours ago

Packers Not Ruling Out Jaire Alexander Returning
Tennessee Titans12 hours ago

No. 1 Overall Pick Might Not Be For Sale
Kenny Pickett12 hours ago

Browns Feel Good About QB Situation, Kenny Pickett
Cleveland Browns12 hours ago

Browns Unlikely To Trade Up To No. 1 Overall For Cam Ward
Cincinnati Bengals13 hours ago

Bengals Still Working On Contract Extension With Trey Hendrickson
Dyami Brown13 hours ago

Jaguars Intrigued By Dyami Brown's Potential
Pittsburgh Steelers13 hours ago

All Options On The Table For Steelers At Quarterback
Bennedict Mathurin14 hours ago

Iffy For Wednesday
Myles Turner14 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Wednesday
Al Horford14 hours ago

Considered Doubtful Wednesday
Jrue Holiday14 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Game
Kristaps Porzingis14 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Wednesday
Jaylen Brown14 hours ago

Could Remain On The Shelf Wednesday
Cade Cunningham14 hours ago

Likely Out For Fifth Straight Game
Anthony Davis14 hours ago

Probable Wednesday
Evan Bouchard16 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Victory
Jake Guentzel16 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Kirill Marchenko16 hours ago

Scores Hat Trick On Tuesday
Tage Thompson16 hours ago

Stays Hot On The Scoresheet
Lane Hutson16 hours ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers In Overtime Victory
Alex Ovechkin16 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Cameron Young21 hours ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama21 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim22 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge23 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick1 day ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners1 day ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay1 day ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland1 day ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti1 day ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Guerschon Yabusele1 day ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns1 day ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Jevon Carter1 day ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry1 day ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips1 day ago

Out On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud1 day ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Jacob Trouba1 day ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Troy Terry1 day ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jonathan Marchessault1 day ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere1 day ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn1 day ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro1 day ago

Returns Against Predators
Olli Määttä1 day ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth1 day ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp1 day ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim1 day ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood1 day ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens2 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA2 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy2 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman2 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg2 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober2 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres2 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall2 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara2 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez2 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.2 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira2 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez2 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas2 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez2 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones3 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry4 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano4 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF