X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Three Hitters Set To Break Out Earlier Than Expected

Sam Chinitz looks at three young hitters who are positioned to breakout earlier than expected. These players could be value selections in fantasy baseball drafts ahead of the 2021 MLB season.

Finding breakout hitters can be a difference-maker for fantasy teams, especially when those hitters have had limited success at the major league level early in their careers. Whether it be through added playing time, skill improvements, or some combination of the two, pre-prime breakouts can be excellent draft values thanks to their unusually high upside. 

A hitter’s best years can come at just about any age, but the start of a hitter’s prime is their age-26 season for this article*. That limits the pool of players to pick from -- 75% of qualified batters last season were 26 years old or older -- but there are still plenty of options.

For this article, a breakout season is one in which the hitter has his most valuable fantasy season by a significant margin and is worth rostering in most leagues. That’s still a fairly subjective set of criteria, but it disqualifies players like Ke’Bryan Hayes and Sean Murphy. With that in mind, below are three (and a half) pre-prime breakout candidates for the 2021 season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Evan White (1B, SEA)

24 years old

White struggled at the plate in 54 games last season, slashing .176/.252/.346 with an ugly 41.6% strikeout rate that ranked behind only Miguel Sano for the highest strikeout rate among qualified batters. When White did make contact though, he hit the ball hard with impressive frequency. Only 12 players posted a higher hard-hit rate than White in 2020, and White showed off a similarly strong 97 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives and a 112.8 mph max exit velocity. 

Notably, White is a pretty extreme outlier when it comes to contact quality and overall performance. Hard-hit rate and OPS are only weakly correlated for hitters, but White stands out as the hitter who underperformed the most given his hard-hit rate.

White’s high strikeout rate was the biggest driver of his underperformance, and it came with a relatedly high 35.6% called+swinging strike rate. White showed an ability to make relatively consistent contact in the minor leagues though, and his 15% swinging-strike rate from 2020 implies a strikeout rate closer to 30%. With that in mind, it’s not unreasonable to expect White to make a little more frequent contact while being more aggressive at the plate in 2021, changes that would have significant effects on his overall production.

If White can get his strikeout rate down around 30% (which is plausible), then he should be able to get his OPS up around .800 even with some contact quality regression baked in. Add in that White has the upside to post an OPS closer to .900 based on his potential for an improved strikeout rate and the 24-year-old makes for an exciting breakout candidate.

 

Nate Lowe (1B, TEX)

25 years old

Lowe has been productive but unspectacular for the Rays over parts of the past two seasons, posting a .770 OPS through 71 games. Now headed for regular playing time with the Rangers in 2021, Lowe is primed for a breakout season. 

Lowe’s biggest issue in the major leagues has been his poor 32.1% strikeout rate, but he’s not a prototypical high-strikeout hitter. For one, Lowe’s 10.5% major-league swinging-strike rate would have been the second-lowest among qualified batters with a strikeout rate of at least 25% in 2019, and only one qualified hitter posted a strikeout rate above 30% with a swinging-strike rate below 14%. Additionally, Lowe wasn’t much of a strikeout hitter in the minor leagues, posting an 18.5% strikeout rate over four minor league seasons.

If Lowe can manage to increase his aggressiveness at the plate while maintaining at least most of his solid contact quality (.439 xwOBAcon), then an OPS above .800 is likely. Combined with consistent playing time and the upside to get his OPS above .850, Lowe is worth a look from fantasy managers chasing breakouts late in drafts.

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B, TOR)

22 years old

This feels like a trap, but Guerrero Jr. is just too good and made too many offseason adjustments to be left out of this article. Let’s start with what Guerrero Jr. already does well: he has as much raw power as anyone, above-average contact skills, an advanced plate approach, and he sprays the ball to all fields. The only two major holes in Guerrero Jr.’s offensive game over the past two seasons are his conditioning and his tendency to hit ground balls at a high rate.

Hitting coach Guillermo Martinez implied that Guerrero Jr.’s late-season 2019 slump was the result of fatigue, and Guerrero Jr.’s less than ideal physical shape has been well-documented. Guerrero Jr. has reportedly had an extremely productive offseason in that regard though, shedding 40 pounds. If that’s enough to help Guerrero Jr. be more consistent at the plate -- and it very well may be -- then a hard-hit rate above 45% is a reasonable (maybe even slightly pessimistic) expectation for 2021. Since the start of 2015, there have been only 42 instances of a hitter posting a hard-hit rate of at least 45% with a strikeout rate below 20% (min. 250 PA). That group averaged a .885 OPS, and nearly half of those hitters posted an OPS above .900.

To find himself in the upper echelon of those hitters, Guerrero Jr. will have to cut down on a ground-ball rate that sat at 54.6% last season and routinely exceeded 45% in the minor leagues. Fatigue also played a significant role in Guerrero Jr.’s high ground-ball rate, and Guerrero Jr. has been working to elevate balls more consistently this offseason. Overall, Guerrero Jr. has one of the highest offensive upsides in all of baseball, and his reportedly productive offseason makes him a clear 2021 breakout candidate.

 

Bonus: Lewin Díaz (1B, MIA)

24 years old

Díaz is a 6’4” first baseman who hit 27 home runs in 121 minor-league games in 2019 and posted a 96.8% z-contact rate in 2020. Those numbers jump right off the page, but if that’s all there is to say about Díaz he’d have broken out by now. For one, Díaz posted his eye-popping z-contact rate in only 41 plate appearances, and he struck out at an impressive but not elite 17.6% rate over his minor league career. A high z-contact rate doesn’t always lead to an elite strikeout rate (especially when considering that Díaz posted a relatively poor 63% o-contact rate in 2020), but his relatively high minor league strikeout rate isn’t a great sign.

On the topic of Díaz’s minor league career, he showed flashes of strong play but struggled to put together consistent success, posting a middling .778 OPS across six seasons. I’m reluctant to call Díaz a legitimate breakout candidate for 2021 as a result, but he should be on the radar of fantasy managers and is worth a late-round gamble in deep leagues thanks to his power and potentially underrated contact skills.

*All ages in this article are based on each player’s age as of April 1, 2021.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Connor McDavid

Totals Three Points In Game 3 Win
Johnathan Kovacevic

Exits Early Friday
Seth Lugo

Tosses Eight Shutout Innings In Friday's Win Over Houston
Sam Montembeault

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Friday
Logan Thompson

Exits Loss With Injury
Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sanchez Will Throw A Bullpen On Sunday
Brandon Hagel

Suspended For Game 3
Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF