Three Hitters Set To Break Out Earlier Than Their Prime

March 11, 2022

Justin Dunbar takes a look at three fantasy baseball hitter sleepers for 2022 drafts. These MLB hitters cam break out in 2022 despite being under 25 years old.

In baseball, common sense would indicate that a player would break out when they reach their prime, which is around 26-years-old. However, development is not linear. We have seen plenty of players burst onto the scene with the first or second season and flourish, while others have taken longer than expected to develop. It really does vary from player-to-player.

Today, we will be looking at players who will breakout earlier than their prime. All of them are 25-years-old or younger, yet are in great shape to produce at a very high level this season. Since these players have yet to "prove it" at the major league level, they won't be going early in drafts. However, that just opens up the opportunity to find surplus value in the marketplace.

If you draft these players now, you could find some absolute steals. Who are these three diamonds in the rough? Let us find out!

Andrew Vaughn, 1B/OF, Chicago White Sox

Age: 23
2021 Stats: .235/.309/.396, 469 PA, 15 HR, 56 R, 48 RBI, 1 SB, 94 wRC+

Actions speak louder than words, and that couldn't be more true when analyzing the White Sox organization's confidence in Andrew Vaughn. Despite only having 229 plate appearances above rookie ball, the front office decided to put him on the opening day roster – quite the jump from High-A.

However, Vaughn was no average prospect. He posted an absurd .495 on-base percentage and 1.183 OPS in his three years in college at the University of California-Berkley, leading to him being the third overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft. Heading into 2021, he was considered the #14 overall prospect in the MLB by both MLB Pipeline and Baseball Prospectus. Following the spring-training injury to Eloy Jimenez, the contending White Sox needed more power in their lineup; putting Vaughn on the opening day roster, in their eyes, was their best chance of reaching their ultimate potential.

Overall, it was a mixed bag for Vaughn in 2021. His 94 wRC+ doesn't stand out – he was 6% worse than league average – nor do any of his statistics. Nevertheless, his profile starts to become more intriguing when you look under the hood. Any player making their MLB debut with such limited professional experience is going to go through their growing pains, and that's exactly what happened to Vaughn last year:

As you can see, Vaughn clearly adapted to MLB pitching when it comes to making contact as the season went on. Through the month of May, the 23-year-old posted a 26.6% strikeout rate. For the rest of the season? Just a 19.4% strikeout rate. That is quite the impressive adjustment.

Vaughn's quality of contact also makes him incredibly intriguing. His 115 MPH exit velocity ranked in the 94th percentile, hitting to more power to be tapped into, while he posted a 10.9% barrel rate. That all speaks to more power than the .161 isolated power (ISO) he posted last year. Meanwhile his batting average should improve with a decreased strikeout rate and more batted-ball luck; his 271 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) should improve.

With more playing time likely on the way in his second season, this is a player with 30-home run potential with a fine average and the ability to accumulate RBI. I know the surface stats in his rookie season didn't blow you away, but there is a lot to get excited about it. If you can look past it, you could be getting a very productive player at a cheap cost in fantasy baseball drafts.

Daulton Varsho, C/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Age: 25
2021 Stats: .246/.318/.437, 315 PA, 11 HR, 41 R, 38 RBI, 6 SB, 98 wRC+

It is very rare to get any sort of speed from the catching position. Furthermore, they tend to play fewer games than players at other position, leading to fewer counting statistics. Thus, it is one of the least-valuable positions out there.

However, Daulton Varsho could end up being the exception. With 84th percentile sprint speed, there is plenty of room for him to grow instead of stealing bases, as his six steals in 315 plate appearances demonstrates. He's certainly the frontrunner to lead all catchers in stolen bases, which gives you quite an edge in that category.

Meanwhile, Varsho also has another edge over other catchers: he should have the opportunity to get more playing time than other catchers. Why? Although he identifies as a catcher, Varsho also lines up in the outfield, while splitting time with Carson Kelly behind the plate. Thus, he'll maintain catcher eligibility, but won't have to deal with the general wear and tear of the position that causes him to need more rest than other players. Really, when evaluating playing time, I'd see him as an outfielder who happens to have catcher eligibility.

If that was it, then Varsho would be an excellent target at the catching position. However, he has all the makings of an all-around productive player. It took until the second half for him to get consistent playing time, and he took full advantage of it racking up .290/.349/.530, .240 ISO, 8.2% BB, 19.6% K, 128 wRC+.

Those are very strong numbers, especially for someone with catcher eligibility. I don't expect Varsho's .327 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to remain intact, but he should still be expected to hit between .250 and .260- not a liability. Meanwhile, with a 77th percentile max exit velocity and just a 38.5% ground ball rate, the power potential is clearly there; he hits the ball hard and in the air. If he can improve his pull rate (34.4%), that ceiling increases further.

Varsho's contact skills are improving, making his batting average not a liability. Meanwhile, he combines power with speed, which isn't common at the catcher position. Add in the extra plate appearances and less wear and tear he should get spending a lot of time in the outfield, and the ceiling is quite high with the 25-year-old. Would you be surprised if he finished as a top-three catcher this year? I wouldn't!

Alex Kirilloff, OF/1B, Minnesota Twins

Age: 24
2021 Stats: .251/.299/.423, 231 PA, 8 HR, 23 R, 34 RBI, 93 wRC+

The Twins may have taken a step back last year, but it did give them a chance to give some of their young players to play at the MLB level. Among the main names, Alex Kirilloff takes the cake.

Overall, Kirilloff's numbers don't look super impressive, but it did come with a 12.8% barrel rate. However, what is most important here is the context surrounding Kirilloff's production. In July, he got shut down for the rest of the season to undergo wrist surgery, and injury he likely dealt with for a significant portion of time. This would explain this:

Simply put, Kirilloff also got notably unlucky. I don't like to cite expected statistics, but they are very useful in small sample sizes. Thus, the gap between Kirilloff's .367 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and .307 wOBA is significant. With his level bat path, he's got a knack for peppering line drives, which ushered in high BABIPs in the minors, and should continue at the MLB level. It should  be no surprise he was able to post a 31.1% flare/burner rate, which voids well for his batting average. Now, I'd like to see him hit more balls in the air overall for power, but with how hard he consistently can hit the baseball, the barrel rate still wasn't an issue. All things considered, he has the potential to be the complete offensive player.

Now presumably healthy after undergoing wrist surgery, Kirilloff should have a much better year in his first full season in 2022. Heck, even with just some better luck, he can get there. The minor-league track record and prospect pedigree are both very impressive, and if all goes well, he can be someone who provides you with a solid batting average with 20+ home runs. As a later-round pick, you will definitely take that!

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