Three Fantasy Football Tight Ends You Must Draft in 2024 - Part I

Three fantasy football tight ends every manager must draft this season. Rob lays out his case for why they will end up outplaying their current ADP in 2024.

The tight end position is deeper going into 2024 than it's been for several years. The top of the position isn't quite as strong, but there seem to be more options for fantasy managers this season. While most fantasy managers will likely get their hands on Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, or Trey McBride, there are several other very appealing tight ends fantasy managers should be excited to draft this fantasy football season. In this new series, we'll identify six tight ends fantasy managers need to be drafting this season. This will be a two-part series featuring three tight ends in each entry.

There's no denying the potential and talent of the four tight ends on top, but there are three other tight ends with the potential to finish in the top three. Does that sound crazy? It may right now, but by the end of this series, you'll be on board with the upside and potential of the tight ends featured in this series. There’s a fourth tight end we’ll talk about who is being drafted as a back-end TE1 but has a good chance of finishing in the top six.

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Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Fantasy managers can effectively forget everything that’s happened to Kyle Pitts over the past two seasons. Between the ineffective coaching staff and the even worse quarterback play, Pitts has had to endure a situation that would have rendered even the best tight ends irrelevant.

All of that changes this season, however. The Falcons organization hired Raheem Morris, the former defensive coordinator of the Rams, as their head coach. Morris brought with him Zac Robinson, the Rams passing game coordinator since 2022. Robinson has been with the organization under Sean McVay since 2019.

In the 23 full games Matthew Stafford has played with the Rams since 2022, he’s averaged just over 35 pass attempts per game (35.043, to be exact), which equals 595 over 17 games. The Falcons attempted 415 passes in 2022 and 530 this past season.

Now enter Kirk Cousins. Over Cousins’ six years with the Vikings, he’s averaged just over 35 pass attempts per game. 35.011, to be exact. It’s wild just how similar Cousins and Stafford’s per-game-pass-attempt averages are. Needless to say, we can expect a whole lot more passing volume in Atlanta this season. It gets even better. Check out the stats below detailing Cousins’ 2023 stats, Desmond Ridder’s 2023 stats, and Marcus Mariota’s 2022 stats when he was the Falcons’ starting quarterback.

The differences are endless and significant. When we talk about adding 60-180 pass attempts on top of the increase in efficiency, you can see why fantasy managers should start getting excited. Cousins is a far superior passer than both previous quarterbacks. His pass attempts have been so much higher because of Cousins' success as a passer. Put it bluntly, Cousins is not a liability like Ridder and Mariota.

As a pass-catcher, you depend on the individual throwing you the football. Even in the past two seasons, Pitts' advanced metrics have shown plenty of promise and potential, but he has not been able to capitalize on it due to his quarterback play.

Look at the table below, specifically the last row -- catchable target rate. In the past two seasons, Pitts’ catchable target rates have been 64.0% and 59.3%. Now, jump back to our first table and compare Cousins’ on-target rate to Ridder and Mariota. It’s 6.7% higher than Ridder and 11.6% higher than Mariota.

It’s not hard to see the fantasy appeal of a good quarterback when looking at his utilization and advanced statistics from the last three years. Keep in mind, too, that last season, Pitts was in his first season back following a torn MCL in 2022. Despite missing time in 2022 and 2023, Pitts has finished first in unrealized air yards in both seasons. It’s not a stretch to think that many unrealized air yards become real yards with good quarterback play.

Prior to that injury, in 2021 and 2022, he posted top-seven marks in yards per route run, yards per reception, and yards per team pass attempt. During those first two seasons, he also posted top-10 numbers in target share and target rate. The last row you should focus on is his total touchdowns. He has just six touchdowns in three seasons on 258 targets. That’s an abysmal 2.3% touchdown rate. That number has the potential to double itself this year.

Fantasy managers have mostly identified Pitts’ potential, drafting him as the TE6 in Yahoo! and Underdog. He isn’t cheap, but make no mistake, Pitts has the potential to be the top tight end in the NFL this season. That is in his realistic range of outcomes.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

In 2023, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Trent Sherfield, and Deonte Harty combined for 284 targets, 178 receptions, 2,165 yards, and 17 touchdowns. All four of those players are no longer with the team. In 2022, Diggs, Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, and Jamison Crowder combined for 325 targets, 204 receptions, 2,748 yards, and 22 touchdowns. All four of those players are no longer on the team. In 2023, Davis, Diggs, Sherfield, and Harty combined to have 30 red-zone targets. Diggs and Davis accounted for 26 (!!!) end-zone targets. Both players ranked inside the top 20 in this category among receivers.

Bills targets per route without Stefon Diggs on the field over the last two seasons:

James Cook 31%
Dalton Kincaid 29%
Khalil Shakir 19%
Dawson Knox 18%
Gabe Davis 16%

(small sample warning)

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) May 14, 2024

Kincaid wasn’t fully unleashed as a rookie. With veteran Dawson Knox, the Bills brought Kincaid along slowly. He finished just 23rd in snap share at 65.6% and 13th in route participation at 82.9%. He had five games with a route share of less than 70%, which will not happen this upcoming season. We should expect his route participation to exceed 85% in 2024 and for him to never drop below 80% on any given week.

He had six games with a route participation rate of 85% or higher. He had seven targets in five of them, five receptions in five, and over 46 yards in four. He averaged 7.6 targets, 5.8 receptions, 58.5 yards, and 0.33 touchdowns per game. He had a 22.1% target share and a 23% target rate. Over 17 games, those per-game averages would amount to 129 targets, 99 receptions, 995 yards, and six touchdowns.

Alright... Dalton Kincaid might be really good.

Bills asked him to run intermediate and downfield routes against man coverage as a rookie. Don't see that often. pic.twitter.com/9HXWMqXwPh

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) May 14, 2024

LaPorta and McBride overshadowed Kincaid’s rookie season, but Kincaid still finished with 91 targets, 73 receptions, and 673 yards. Those are some impressive numbers, considering Diggs and Davis were on the team, and Kincaid played just 65.6% of the team’s snaps.

Since 2020, Josh Allen has averaged 591 pass attempts, 4,385 yards, and 34 touchdowns. Based on their current allotment of pass-catchers, fantasy managers should expect Kincaid to lead the way as Allen’s No. 1 and preferred option in the passing game. If we give Kincaid a 22% target share on Allen’s four-year-pass-attempt average, Kincaid would finish with 130 targets.

Like Pitts, fantasy managers have identified Kincaid’s potential and are drafting him as the TE5 on both Underdog and Yahoo! It will require a fifth-round pick to get Kincaid on your fantasy roster, which isn’t a cheap cost. However, Kincaid, like Pitts, could finish this season as the No. 1 tight end in fantasy football. He certainly has the potential to be top three.

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

Freiermuth is likely a player many fantasy managers have forgotten about, especially after his dreadful 2023 season. Based on early drafting data, Freiermuth is available in the 12th round on Yahoo! and Underdog as the TE16. That makes him one of fantasy football's best tight-end values this season.

Freiermuth struggled with an injury-plagued second season in 2023. He played just 64.0% of snaps compared to 70% in 2022. He had eight games with a snap share below 67% out of just 12 games, a 66.7% rate. In 2022, he had just five games out of 16 contests, a 31.2% rate. Injuries happen, and they can negatively impact a player’s performance. Freiermuth, no doubt, fell victim to that last season, but we shouldn’t forget what he did in 2022, just his second season in the league. Let me refresh your memory...

He posted top-10 numbers in basically every statistic across the board. Every statistic except total touchdowns, where he posted just two. Just two touchdowns despite having the fifth-most targets, sixth-most receptions, and 15th-most red-zone targets. That doesn't make much sense, but when you consider that his quarterback was Kenny Pickett, who has arguably been just as bad as Zach Wilson, it starts to make a lot more sense.

Since 2000, there have been 36 quarterbacks to attempt at least 450 passes in their first two seasons in the NFL. Pickett's 1.8%  touchdown rate is the worst, and the only player below 2.1%. For goodness sake, Zach Wilson and Josh Rosen are at 2.4%. Pickett had the sixth-worst quarterback rating and fourth-worst yard-per-attempt average. Through his first two seasons in the NFL, Pickett is in the same group as Wilson, Rosen, and Drew Lock. That's how bad he's been.

Freiermuth has had to deal with that in each of the past two seasons, but no more! This offseason, the Steelers signed Russell Wilson as their starting quarterback. Below, you'll see just how big of a difference even Wilson can be when compared to Pickett.

The numbers speak for themselves, but pay attention to their red-zone completion percentage and touchdown rate. Looking back at Freiermuth's 2022 season when he had just two touchdowns and a touchdown rate of just 2.0%, it's safe to point a lot of the blame at Pickett. Last season, Wilson's red-zone completion percentage was 18.5 percentage points higher, and his touchdown rate was 3.9 percentage points better. That difference is astronomical. If they each throw just 550 passes, the difference is 22 (!!!) touchdowns.

Wilson will likely be the best quarterback Freiermuth has ever played with in his young season. Even if Wilson falters, Pittsburgh also traded for Justin Fields. Fields helped Cole Kmet as the TE8 last year in half-PPR PPG. Kmet finished with 91 targets, 73 receptions, 719 yards, and six touchdowns. He was eighth in yards per route run and ninth in yards per target. It doesn't matter. Whoever is under center will be better than Pickett.

With Freiermuth fully healthy, we should see the player who started to emerge in his second season. If fantasy managers get that player along with a better quarterback from Wilson, as illustrated in the table above, it wouldn't be a shock to see Freiermuth finish inside the top 12 and possibly even the top 10. He did that already in 2022 with just two touchdowns and Pickett at the helm. Why can't he do it again this season?

Freiermuth is one of the best value picks at the tight-end position this summer, and if you don't want to draft a tight end in the first five rounds, he is the best late-round target for fantasy managers.

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