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Frank Dyevoich breaks down the skill set of the incoming rookie RB class ahead of the 2021 NFL Draft.
When it comes to fantasy football, the running back position is the most important one on your team. Running backs touch the ball more than any other non-quarterback position and they are the most likely to get the ball in the red zone and at the goal line. The truly elite ones rarely come off the field. Fantasy football is all about opportunity because a player can't score fantasy points if they are not given opportunities with the ball and the running backs perennially dominate in that category. When drafting your fantasy teams this offseason, I am a strong believer that you can never draft too many running backs.
Running backs are also unlike any other position in the NFL because their prime years start once they enter the league and they fall off faster than any other position in terms of on-field production. It makes sense, running backs handle the bulk of the work, therefore they take the bulk of the hits. Even elite players fall out of their prime faster than a toupee in a hurricane. For example, Todd Gurley came into the league in 2015. He started off hot with 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns in 13 games but suffered a drastic sophomore slump under Jeff Fisher in 2016. Then, in 2017 under Sean McVay, Gurley became an absolute superstar and the most coveted player in fantasy football. He combined for 3,924 yards from scrimmage and 40 touchdowns in 2017 and 2018 and was the undisputed 1.01 in every 2018 fantasy football draft. The 1.02 and 1.03 belonged to running backs Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson. Now, fast forward two years to 2020, and Gurley and Johnson failed to crack the 700-yard mark while Bell failed to reach a meager 85 carries. Currently, Johnson's average draft position ("ADP") sits outside the top-30 at the running back position, and Gurley and Bell are outside the top-50. Less than three years ago, they were the first three players off the board. Life comes at you fast, especially if you are a running back in the NFL.
In fantasy, rookie running backs are usually undervalued, but there are one or two rookies who are hyped up all offseason and take a drastic leap in ADP come draft time. Those players tend to disappoint, not as rookies, but in comparison to their ADP. I am a firm proponent of the middle round rookie running backs in redraft leagues because that is where you find the most value. Last year, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the first rookie running back drafted in redraft at 18 overall, but players like Jonathan Taylor (45 overall), D'Andre Swift (67 overall), Antonio Gibson (106 overall), and James Robinson (222 overall) were much better values, and all outperformed CEH on the season. So, let's take an early look at the next wave of running backs and try to decipher who should excel at the next level.
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Early Look At The Incoming Rookie RB Class: Tier 1
Najee Harris - Alabama
Alabama running back Najee Harris is the best prospect in this draft class. He possesses all the traits that general managers look for in a workhorse running back, and he has gotten better each season at Alabama. Many teams employ a running back by committee approach, but Harris is one of the rare prospects that should jump right into a three-down role in the NFL. Harris is the all-time leader in rush yards at Alabama, amassing 3,843 over his four seasons. This is especially impressive when you take into account that he ran behind Damien Harris and Josh Jacobs in his freshmen and sophomore seasons. When he finally took the reigns of the Crimson Tide backfield, he rushed for 1,224 yards (5.9 YPC) and 13 touchdowns his junior year, and this past season, he destroyed worlds with 1,446 rush yards and a whopping 26 touchdowns. Harris also took advantage of the feature-back role to develop his receiving skills. He only had 10 receptions in his first two seasons, but in his third year, he caught 27 passes for 304 yards and seven touchdowns and followed that up with 43 receptions for 425 yards and four touchdowns. There is no doubt that Harris has the potential to be a 250-carry and 45-plus reception guy at the next level.
Harris has the perfect combination of speed, power, and elusiveness. He did not run the 40-yard dash at either of Alabama's Pro Days, but when you watch him play, he displays excellent burst off his plant-foot and he has enough to juice to outrun even the fastest linebackers. He does not have home-run speed, but chunk plays will be routine for him. Watching Harris run the rock is like watching poetry in motion. He has great patience to let the holes develop in his offensive line, excellent vision to find and hit the cut-back lane at just the right moment, and deceptive lateral agility for his size. He also possesses an array of moves in the open field to help him evade and force missed tackles from incoming defenders, utilizing his thunderous stiff-arm, elite stop and start ability, fluid spin moves, and uncanny ability to hurdle incoming defenders. I'd love to see him land with the Pittsburgh Steelers at pick #24, but he might not last that long.
Pro Comp: Le'Veon Bell (with more power).
Travis Etienne - Clemson
Going into 2020, Travis Etienne was probably the consensus RB1 in this draft class. Due to Harris's incredible season, he has fallen to two on most analysts' lists, but don't let that sway you from trusting him to lead an NFL backfield and your fantasy team. Etienne stands alone atop the Atlantic Coast Conference ("ACC") mountain of elite rushers. He holds the all-time ACC records for rushing touchdowns (70; 18 more than second-place), rushing yards (4,952; ahead of Dalvin Cook and Lamar Jackson), and yards per carry (7.2; ahead of Warrick Dunn, Duke Johnson, and Cook) all while being 23rd in total rushing attempts. He also improved on his route running and receiving skills each year and finished as the career leader in the ACC for yards from scrimmage (6,107; 708 more than Cook).
As a runner, Etienne is lethal in the open field, he is able to string together cuts, spins, and jumps that leave defenders wondering how he got away. His elite contact balance makes it extremely difficult to tackle him on the first or even second attempts, and his ability to regain his balance and accelerate upfield from awkward angles is unparalleled in this class. Etienne has fluid footwork which helps him to hit the holes in the line at the right speeds and perfect angles, and he can adjust his running angles at full speed, creating negative angles for incoming defenders, and making it almost impossible for someone to catch him from behind. Etienne also has an uncanny ability to get skinny and split defenders through the tiniest cracks of daylight.
Rushing aside, Etienne is a gifted receiver as well, though he didn't start out that way as a freshman. He has a diverse route tree and can line up in the slot, making his usage even more unpredictable. Despite all of these gifts as a runner, his most prolific attribute that will lead to success at the next level is his ability to reaccelerate from a slowed or stopped position. This allows him to gain chunk plays regularly and to pick up significant yards after contact after he slips a tackle. I'd love to see him go to the Dolphins at #18 or to the Bills at #30.
Pro comparison: Aaron Jones. Some people say Alvin Kamara, but Kamara is far more explosive than Etienne when shifting directions and altering speeds. Etienne also has faster straight-line speed.
Tier 2
Javonte Williams - North Carolina
Javonte Williams has the potential to be just as good as Harris and Etienne, but he comes in just a tad lower because he has never handled a full workload, split time with Michael Carter (discussed below) at basically 50/50, and he only has one season of elite production. Williams' meteoric rise from 2019 to 2020 is one of the largest leaps in production that I can remember. He only scored 11 total touchdowns in his first two seasons and then out of nowhere, he dropped 22 total touchdowns just last year. He also increased his efficiency from 5.6 YPC in 2019 to 7.3 last year, almost two full yards. When looking at his tape from last year, there is no doubt that Williams has all the tools to be a three-down running back in the NFL, we just have not seen him do it yet.
As a runner, Williams is a bully. To be frank, Deebo Williams would be the perfect name for him. He welcomes contact and lowers his shoulder to break through tackles rather than evade them. Arm tackles are useless against him and ankle tackles are similarly ineffective. In fact, he led the country last year with 75 broken tackles which is even more impressive when you remember he only handled 50% of the running back touches for his team. His physical running style has also led to the development of the best contact balance in this class. He rarely makes a defender miss entirely, but it is just as rare for the first defender to get him to the ground. He does not have home-run speed, so 40-yard touchdown runs will not be common for him, but he has excellent vision and enough lateral agility to manipulate defenders at the line of scrimmage in order to burst through to the second level of the defense where he does most of his damage.
Williams was not asked to catch the ball very much since Carter was the better route runner and receiver; however, he does possess those skills, and in the right system, he could easily find himself with three to five targets per game. Williams is tailor-made for the Steelers, but it is too early to take him at #24 overall and it is likely that he won't be available for their second pick at #53 overall. Therefore, I would love to see Williams go to the Falcons in Round 2 at #34 overall.
Pro Comparison: Young Frank Gore. I also see a slightly smaller Chris Carson, though Williams looks faster on tape. The popular one is David Montgomery, but Williams has more wiggle and far more burst so I think that is a lazy comparison simply based on contact balance. I also heard Nick Chubb, but Chubb is the best pure runner in the NFL in my opinion and Williams does not belong in the same breath.
Tier 3
Kenneth Gainwell - Memphis
Kenneth Gainwell might be the most versatile running back in this draft class. In addition to running between the tackles, lining up in the slot, and splitting out wide, Gainwell was prolific as a kick/punt returner. He has a smaller frame than most of the other potential three-down back candidates, but he is as gifted in the open field as anyone else. He only played one full season at Memphis in 2019 after he chose to redshirt his freshman year, and he opted out of 2020 due to COVID-19, so his sample size with a full workload is limited. However, in that prolific season, he relegated Antonio Gibson to only 33 carries on route to 231 carries for 1,459 yards (6.3 YPC) and 13 touchdowns. He also showcased his talent as a receiver, hauling in 51 receptions for 610 yards (12.0 YPR) and three touchdowns. His stellar performance led to him being voted as first-team All-American Athletic Conference ("AAC") and the AAC Rookie of the Year. We saw how productive Antonio Gibson was in his rookie season, so we should all be excited about the potential of Gainwell.
Gainwell is a dual-threat running back that can kill you between the tackles and through the air. He has lightning-quick feet which process concurrent with his eyes, and he has surprisingly great contact balance despite his small frame. One thing to love about him in the passing game is that he catches with his hands instead of his body, which allows him to maintain top speed on the edges and across the middle. This will prove to be lethal against linebackers at the next level who try to cover him on slants and wheel routes. If he wants to be considered for a three-down role in the NFL, one thing he needs to do is add weight and bulk up his frame because he does not shy away from contact and NFL contact makes the AAC look like a pillow-fight.
He is also no slouch in pass protection so a bulkier frame will help him in more ways than one. Ideally, Gainwell will be used in a similar role to that of Austin Ekeler at the next level, receiving five to eight targets per week coupled with 10 to 12 carries. It would be best for the duration of his career if someone else handled the short-yardage and goal-line work. I'd love to see Gainwell land with the Buffalo Bills in the third round. As far as I'm concerned, the Devin Singletary experiment is over and the Bills could have a lethal one-two punch with Gainwell and Zach Moss. I can tell you this, he would not have dropped that wide-open screen pass in the playoffs.
Pro Comparison: Chase Edmonds. I see a lot of LeSean McCoy on Gainwell's tape, but McCoy was bulkier and had elite change of direction skills whereas Gainwell could use some improvement in that area as evidenced by his 7.26 three-cone time. I also see James White and Austin Ekeler used as comps to Gainwell, but White is far less effective between the tackles and Ekeler is far more explosive from a stopped position.
Trey Sermon - Ohio State
Trey Sermon is so much fun to watch. If he played a full season like Harris and Etienne, he would be ranked right alongside them. He is a bruising one-cut downhill runner with deceptive lateral agility and an uncanny ability to stay on his feet through contact at all angles. In his last year, he transferred to Ohio State as their featured running back and it took a while to get going, but by the end of the season, he was the second-best player on the team next to Justin Fields. Over his last four games (not including the National Championship where he left the game after one carry), Sermon garnered 79 carries and racked up 696 yards (8.8 YPC) and four touchdowns. He was not used much as a receiver in 2020, but he showcased his receiving skills in the Sugar Bowl versus Clemson, hauling in four receptions for 61 yards.
Above, you see two excellent plays from Sermon, each of which showcases a different skill set. He has fantastic processing at the line of scrimmage and incredible lateral agility for his size. He displays the patience to allow his blocks to set up, and he has the burst to hit the cut-back lane as soon as it opens. Another thing that stands out on tape with Sermon is that the first defender never brings him down. He has a knack for squaring up defenders at the right angle so that they either bounce off of him or he uses his power to stiff-arm, toss aside, or breakthrough incoming tackle attempts, whether high or low. He has the prototypical frame of a three-down NFL running back, so if he can stay healthy and be more aggressive in pass protection, Sermon has a bright future. If the Steelers don't take a running back in the first round, I'd love Sermon to go to them in the second round, but he would be an ideal fit for the Jets and the Dolphins as well.
Pro Comparison: Alma Mater aside, I see a lot of Ezekiel Elliott in Sermon. They both have sneaky agility for their size and can utilize their strength to gain the upper hand on incoming defenders, but neither of them has home-run speed or great elusiveness in the open field. They are going to beat you with their vision and their power, and so far it has worked out just fine for Zeke. Zeke has better hands and faster top-end speed, but Sermon is more explosive through the line. I also see a lot of DeMarco Murray when I watch Sermon. I see no reason why he can't be just as successful as Elliott and Murray at the next level if he can stay healthy.
Michael Carter - North Carolina
Michael Carter was one of the most entertaining running backs to scout in this draft class. He split time with Javonte Williams, but where Williams excelled with his power, Carter excelled with his receiving skills and his elite footwork. No one in this draft class puts defenders on skates more than Carter and he should be just as much fun to watch at the next level. Carter's best asset for projecting his production in the NFL is his elite receiving skills. He caught at least 21 passes in his last three seasons at UNC and posted an impressive catch rate of 86%. Additionally, his route running is by far the best in this class. He can split out wide, line up in the slot, take screen passes out of the backfield, and run deadly wheel routes. This will allow an NFL team to create mismatches for him all over the field. He is also a very effective runner between the tackles, evidenced by his 1,245 yards on only 156 carries (8.0 YPC), which makes his usage at the next level extremely unpredictable.
Carter has the best footwork in this draft class. He can make defenders who have him dead to rights tackle nothing but air. One of his most lethal moves is his stop and start ability. He routinely takes a hard step or two towards the open hole and hits the brakes to stop on a dime and cut laterally to avoid the incoming defender. He is also able to do this while accelerating upfield and without losing his momentum after each cut. He does this twice on route to the endzone after his initial cut in the clip above, and the three defenders who have him squared up do not even lay a finger on him. In fact, all three are juked out of their shoes. Carter projects as an elite change-of-pace running back in the NFL, but if he were asked to run between the tackles, rest assured he could handle that job as well. I'd love to see the 49ers reach for him in the second round, but a more likely scenario is the Seahawks in the second round or the Broncos in the third round. Carter would be an excellent complement to Chris Carson or Melvin Gordon.
Pro Comparison: Michael Carter is what the Chiefs hoped they were getting in Clyde-Edwards Helaire. Carter has better footwork and is more effective between the tackles, but their size and skill-sets are nearly identical. I also see Devonta Freeman when I watch Carter, which has me drooling over the prospect of him going to the 49ers, but Carter is a better pass catcher and far more explosive off of his cuts and lateral jumps. I have seen comparisons to Nyheim Hines, but that is likely due to their size since Hines has far superior straight-line speed and Carter is much better between the tackles.
Chuba Hubbard - Oklahoma State
Chuba Hubbard is quite the enigma in this class. He was a Heisman candidate in 2019 and would have been a borderline first-round pick had he declared for the 2020 NFL Draft, but he chose to come back to school, and unfortunately, his production decreased quite dramatically. Hubbard will be a high-risk, high-reward pick on day three. In his breakout 2019 season, Hubbard posted 2,094 yards and 21 touchdowns on 328 carries (6.4 YPC), and he added 21 receptions through the air. In his 2020 season, he got a new offensive coordinator, and for whatever reason, they stopped running him in an outside-zone scheme and used him to try and pound it between the tackles instead. It was a disaster as Hubbard only managed 625 yards on 133 carries (4.7 YPC), almost two yards per carry lower than his prolific 2019.
Hubbard is a lethal one-cut runner with elite acceleration and home-run speed. His ability to go from a dead stop to top-speed may be the best in this class. He excels in an outside-zone or wide-zone system due to his patience and ability to find the cut-back lane, plant his foot, and hit the nitrous switch, but he is a poor between the tackles runner. He lacks the vision and processing to be effective up the gut, and he has subpar lateral agility which frequently shows up on tape. He is able to stop and move laterally when he needs to, but he loses almost all of his momentum when doing so.
Fortunately for him, he can regain top speed in the blink of an eye. In the receiving game, Hubbard has decent hands, but he will likely be limited to screen passes due to his poor change of direction. He also needs a marked improvement in pass protection if he wants to see the field on passing downs. Bottom line is that if Hubbard is placed in an outside-zone scheme, he will excel behind a decent offensive line, but if he is asked to navigate through traffic up the middle, he won't make much of an impact. His draft capital and landing spot should tell us all we need to know about his potential in the NFL. I'd like to see Hubbard land with the Falcons, whose new head coach Arthur Smith ran wide-zone to perfection with Derrick Henry on route to 2,000 yards. I'd also like to see him land with the Bills, who run an even combination of zone and power schemes. Let Zack Moss handle the power plays and unleash Hubbard in wide-zone. Step 3: profit.
Pro Comparison: Philip Lindsay. Both guys are explosive off their plant foot and are best-suited for wide-zone schemes, but Hubbard has a bigger frame.
Sleeper Tier
Rhamondre Stevenson - Oklahoma
Rhamondre Stevenson is a big bruising runner with sneaky lateral agility for his size. He doesn't have home-run speed, but he has more than enough burst to make chink plays a regular thing for him at the next level. In short, he is a truck that can drift. I see a lot of Kareem Hunt in Stevenson, but he is bulkier and harder to bring down.
Elijah Mitchell - Louisiana-Lafayette
Elijah Mitchell is my favorite running back sleeper in this class. His feet are silky smooth and he rarely takes unnecessary steps. He is a powerful downhill runner and has natural hands as a receiver. He ran a blazing 4.38 40-yard dash at his pro-day, which is much faster than you'd expect from his tape. He is not a home-run hitter, but he has incredible burst for a running back his size. I see a perfect combination of Mark Ingram II and Matt Forte when I watch Mitchell. Make sure to keep his name on your dynasty draft boards.
Kylin Hill - Mississippi State
Kylin Hill has mainly been forgotten about since he technically only played in two games this year (had one carry and left with a head injury in Week 2) before opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. This kid can play, though. He has incredible burst through the line of scrimmage, and he is one of the better receiving backs in this class, showcased by his 23 receptions in two games this season. He will be best utilized as a change-of-pace receiving back in the NFL, but he could be equally deadly running in an outside-zone scheme. Hill runs every down like it is his last down on Earth, commonly choosing violence over evasion. He also possesses excellent contact balance, routinely bouncing off defenders at high speeds. YAC anyone? Hill reminds me of Ryan Matthews, but with a Marshawn Lynch mentality.
Jermar Jefferson - Oregon State
Jermar Jefferson tested very poorly at his pro day, but on tape, he showed excellent burst and acceleration through the line of scrimmage. However, he will need to improve as a pass-catcher if he wants to earn a role at the next level. Jefferson reminds me of Ronald Jones II.
Jaret Patterson - Buffalo
Jaret Paterson is a lot of fun to watch. He is a very small guy, but that allows him to hide behind his offensive line until the hole opens up and then burst through it while defenders are still trying to find him. He has shifty feet and above-average vision between the tackles, but his small frame will likely lead to a minor role at the next level. Paterson reminds me of Maurice-Jones Drew the way he runs, but with a smaller frame and slightly slower top-speed. A pro comparison in today's NFL would be Devin Singletary, but better.
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