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Welcome back to The Lookahead. This week, we make seven (eight, really) bold predictions for the next fantasy baseball season.
One of the best parts about playing fantasy games is dreaming about what could be, the process of taking what we think we know to predict the future.
At the same time, as Niels Bohr humorously observed, “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” No matter how many inputs we have, we would need to run infinite, perfectly calibrated models to arrive at a 99% accurate prediction.
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Predictions are also meant to be a fun exercise. So let’s blend the two ideas by providing a few takes on 2025 fantasy baseball. Being “bold” by definition, we may not hit them all, but they are meant to point you in the right direction.
1. Lawrence Butler is a Top-5 Fantasy OF
Along with a Baseball Savant page splashed with more red than the elevators in "The Shining," Butler’s actual production was just as strong in the second half: he struck out less than 20% of the time while slashing .300/.345/.553 -- good for a 155 wRC+, 11th-best in MLB (min. 200 PA). The players ahead of him are a who’s who of fantasy superstars.
Butler hit leadoff consistently for the A’s, including against lefties (and he has no split issues). He also went 18-for-18 on the basepaths, and Butler has said that stealing 30 bags is a goal for next year. We’re all in, predicting a 30/30 season in 2025.
Short-sample doubters (and projections) will likely push him down draft boards, but the underlying data and eye test back it all up.
2. Michael King is a Top-5 Fantasy Starter
After a slow start (4.09 ERA through May), King was among the best starting pitchers in baseball the rest of the way, pitching to a 2.26 ERA after June 1. He allowed more than two earned runs ONCE over his last 14 starts -- and the “bad” start constituted just three earned.
King does two important things very well: he gets a load of strikeouts (27%) and limits hard contact, holding the lowest average exit velocity and second-lowest hard-hit rate allowed among starters with 100+ IP.
King made 31 appearances (30 starts) for 173.2 innings, plus whatever he does in the playoffs. There’s no reason to think we can’t get 185-plus innings in 2025, and if so, (the) King has the skills to challenge for a triple crown.
Michael King is the first pitcher to have 12 Ks with no runs and no walks allowed in his first career #Postseason start. pic.twitter.com/wBRSG1xxw0
— MLB (@MLB) October 2, 2024
3. Matt Wallner Will Be Next Year’s Brent Rooker
In other words, Wallner will leap from a flawed but credible power hitter to a well-rounded offensive force. Wallner is already almost Rooker’s mirror image from the left side: loads of barrels, lots of whiffs, and mediocre outfield defense.
There’s more to the connection, though: Rooker made improvements in the second half of 2023 that prefigured his big 2024 breakout. Wallner likewise took huge strides after a wretched start had him sent down to Triple-A.
Upon his July return, he still struck out a bit too much (34%), but in the second half, Wallner hit the ball in the air more (22% LD, 51% FB) while batting .275 (.953 OPS) with 12 HRs -- good for a 171 wRC+.
The fly in the ointment is Wallner’s splits: even in the second half, he managed just a .600 OPS versus lefties and we know how much the Twins love to platoon. But Wallner was batting second or fourth versus righties late in the season, so he should see enough time to pop 30 homers with an average that won’t hurt (and may even be a positive).
4. Carlos Rodon Leads MLB in Strikeouts
Like King, Rodon started slowly with a 4.63 ERA and 9.42 K/9 in the first half. But then Rodon ditched his cutter in July and the whiffs exploded: 11.61 K/9 was fourth among MLB starters over the last three months. He’s held even higher strikeout rates for a full season (12 K/9) as recently as 2022 when he finished third in MLB with 237 total.
The only question with Rodon will be health, as it always is, but he just made 32 starts for the first time in his career; if he can repeat the volume, he’ll be in the mix to be the strikeouts king.
Carlos Rodon was DOMINANT tonight against the Brewers:
6 IP | 2 H | 0 ER | 1 BB | 8 SO pic.twitter.com/xjxGGthfj0
— Fireside Yankees (@FiresideYankees) April 28, 2024
5. Luke Weaver Saves 30 Games…
…for the Yankees, who have a club option on Weaver for just $2 million in 2025. Weaver transformed himself this season, changing his delivery, arsenal, and fastball grip to great effect: 2.89 ERA, .93 WHIP, and .173 BAA, while his strikeout rate jumped from 19% to 31%, the biggest increase in MLB.
Most importantly, Weaver was best in high-leverage situations (1.58 FIP, .078 BAA), leading the Yankees in saves in September. His stuff grades out like a closer, too (125 Stuff+ per FanGraphs).
The Steinbrenner sons don’t spend quite like their father; why not cement Weaver as closer and use the savings to sign Juan Soto?
6. Michael Toglia and/or Tyler Soderstrom Finish Top 10 At 1B
Start sketching out first base rankings and you realize it gets weird pretty fast, with Bellingers and Burgers and Busches jostling for the back of the top 10. None inspire firm confidence, so we could see a couple of youngsters push into relevance at the position.
Soderstrom hits the ball extremely hard -- 15% barrel and 49% hard hit rates -- and showed greater patience (9% walk) while making contact more often (84.5% Z-Contact). He blasted 19 homers in 94 games across Triple-A and the majors and finished his MLB season strong by batting .279 with a 145 wRC+ in the second half -- fifth among first basemen. He’s primed to play every day and bat in the middle third of an ascending lineup.
Toglia’s quality of contact is even more impressive, with 17% barrel and 50% hard-hit rates -- backing up his 25 home runs in just 116 games. He strikes out a lot (34%), which led to a .218 batting average, though Statcast says he deserved better (.250 xBA).
The dreadful overall number is dragged down by an abysmally unlucky first month (.108); he hit above .220 every month after April and walked over 14% in the second half. And oh, by the way, he plays half his games at the BABIP nirvana of Coors Field.
Either or both of these guys could hit 30 home runs while playing every day, and at first base, that might be enough to matter in all league sizes.
7. Joe Ryan Wins AL Cy Young
Ryan’s excellent 2024 was cut short in August by a Grade 2 shoulder strain (teres major). He should be ready for spring training.
Ryan went to Driveline last offseason, adding velocity to all his pitches -- and yet his already stellar control improved. He was ninth in MLB in K-BB% (23%) and WHIP (.99), and his 4.3% walk rate was lower than Tarik Skubal’s (min. 120 IP).
Despite a 3.60 ERA, Ryan’s skills were much better than that, ranking ninth in SIERA (3.28) and xERA (2.90). He improved in several areas, particularly hit prevention (7.33 H/9 from 8.63 H/9) and damage allowed (11.7% HR/FB from 14%).
Ryan’s strikeout rate did decline a bit, but it was almost 11 K/9 in 2023. If Ryan can marry those strikeouts to 2024’s leaps in control and damage prevention, the proverbial sky is the limit.
Joe Ryan has a career-high 12 strikeouts through 5 innings 😳
(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/P15XoSUFky
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 13, 2024
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