RADIO
Week 7 is done and over with it. To get through it, fantasy managers likely had to make plenty of hard decisions with six teams on byes and plenty of injuries across the league. While saying "it's all smooth sailing from here" might be a tad premature, fantasy managers are unlikely to be so hard-pressed as they were last week.
With seven weeks in the books, fantasy managers now have plenty of data and information to form some pretty solid opinions on players. As the great Bill Parcells once said, "you are what your record says they are." The same works with our fantasy players. Through seven weeks, we can finally start believing in what they've put on the field.
Entering Week 8, there are only two teams on bye – the Ravens and Raiders being the two with a week off. Still, it's important to stay fluid with your roster and be willing to admit your mistakes. And with that, I need to come clean with mine. Last week I advocated for holding onto Robby Anderson because he had received 29 targets across Weeks 4–6. It's hard to let go of a guy getting that much volume. In Week 7, he had another nine targets. One of the things fantasy managers should always be chasing is volume and Anderson is getting it, but it's still time to move on. In the last four weeks, Anderson has only 101 yards on 38 targets. He is just woefully inefficient.
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Quarterbacks to Drop for Week 8?
Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers
47.5% Rostership
I'm sorry, Sam Darnold – we'll always have Paris. Or you know, the first four weeks of the 2021 season. In those first four games, he had 1,189 passing yards with five touchdowns. He also, unbelievably, was leading the league in rushing touchdowns with five. The last three weeks have been something else entirely. He has a combined 495 passing yards across Weeks 4–6.
Sam Darnold @PFF passing grades & ranks:
Weeks 1-3: 80.1 (10th)
Weeks 4-7: 44.2 (30th)
— Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle) October 25, 2021
He averaged 297 yards passing per game in Weeks 1–4 and just 165 in Weeks 5–7. He only has thrown two touchdowns and has turned the ball over six times. His play was so bad in Week 7 that he found his way to the bench. Anytime a quarterback gets benched for performance, it's pretty much time to move on. While fantasy managers may have believed in those magical first four weeks and that all the problems we've seen with Darnold over his career, namely Adam Gase, were gone. That no longer seems to be the case.
Running Backs to Drop for Week 8?
Damien Williams, Chicago Bears
52.6% Rostership
Unfortunately for Damien Williams and fantasy managers who roster him, Williams didn't do anything to find himself on the waiver wire. Following the injury to David Montgomery, it appeared as if Williams would be the lead back in the Bears' backfield. In Week 5, the first without Monty, Williams and Khalil Herbert split the backfield touches almost 50/50. Following that solid performance, Williams found himself on the Covid-19 list and was unable to suit up against the Packers. Herbert made a statement in that game, racking up 112 scrimmage yards with a score. When Williams returned to the lineup in Week 7, and he didn't find himself in that same 50/50 split he was in when he last suited up. Instead, he only had four touches while Herbert had 23. Montgomery is due back sooner than later, and with that Williams might find himself as the third running back on the depth chart.
Wide Receivers to Drop for Week 8?
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals
76.0% Rostered
Boyd was another player I advocated for keeping last week and I still don't think fantasy managers should be rushing to drop him, but if push comes to shove, he's a player fantasy managers shouldn't feel compelled to keep on their roster. The hard part to this is Joe Burrow is absolutely balling out right now. One of the biggest issues for Boyd is he's getting pinched. Some of that was to be expected – after all Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase are simply better football players. However, most expected the Bengals to implement a high-volume passing attack and that hasn't been the case. So while Higgins and Chase can be more effective with fewer targets because of their depth of target, Boyd doesn't have that same luxury.
However, there are some reasons for optimism. In Weeks 4–7, Burrow has thrown the ball 137 times compared to just 75 times in Weeks 1–3. That's a difference of over nine attempts per game. Theoretically, that's exactly what Boyd needed. An increase in passing volume should have allowed Boyd to be a useful fantasy asset, but that didn't happen.
Tyler Boyd per game
When Tee Higgins plays:
- 5.3 targets
- 4 catches
- 34 yards
- 8.9 fantasy PPGWhen Tee Higgins is out:
- 9 targets
- 6.5 catches
- 77 yards
- 17.2 fantasy PPGBoyd is borderline droppable at this point
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 25, 2021
Despite the increase in passing volume from Weeks 5–7 (Week 4 Tee Higgins was out), Boyd has only 15 targets and he's been able to turn those into just nine catches for 70 scoreless yards. Ideally, I'd like to hold on Boyd because there's just no way Ja'Marr Chase can keep up his current pace and the passing volume is increasing – both good signs for Boyd's future fantasy prospects – but with bye weeks starting and more injuries this year than in recent memory, fantasy managers will need to make hard decisions and Boyd has played his way onto the waiver wire.
Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers
71.6% Rostered
Some might say I'm late to the party on Robby Anderson. In hindsight that would appear to be the case, but look – 29 targets in three games is damn good. The production wasn't there and that's the issue, but the volume was fantastic. Fantasy managers need to make a point of following the volume as opposed to fantasy points. Touchdowns and points can be finicky, but volume is predictive. However, at some point players need to show something with their volume, anything to keep us invested.
Robby Anderson is 4th at WR in routes, 16th in air yards and 69th in receiving yards. Wow.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 26, 2021
As evidenced above, Robby Anderson is doing absolutely nothing with his volume. It may not be all his fault either. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, Anderson started getting a ton of targets right when Sam Darnold decided to play like a New York Jet again, but the terrible quarterback play is most certainly playing a factor here. Regardless, between Darnold's poor play and Anderson's ineptitude, fantasy managers shouldn't have any problems moving on.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
57.6% Rostered
I have come to the conclusion that Kyle Shanahan simply is not the offensive guru or amazing head coach the media makes him out to be. While I'm not about to blame Aiyuk's sophomore slump completely on Shanahan, his "tough love" is clearly not working. Shanahan has been calling out Aiyuk since the beginning of the season and there are no results. Some of that is on the player. Some of that is on the coach. In any case, Aiyuk's struggles are here, they're not going away and they are pronounced.
Wide receivers with 150+ routes run, but a target on less than 10% of their routes
Demarcus Robinson
Chris Conley
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Jalen Guyton
Brandon Aiyuk— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) October 25, 2021
I was hopeful coming out of the bye that with George Kittle still on IR it would have resulted in a more defined effort to get Aiyuk the ball and that didn't happen. In Week 7, he had one target and one carry. When the head coach strongly dislikes one of his players, fantasy managers should hold the same opinion. I believed in the talent as long as I could, but if Shanahan isn't going to believe in it, I can't either. Not anymore.
Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs
52.0% Rostered
The Kansas City Chiefs are in shambles. Patrick Mahomes looks lost and the offense cannot seem to find its footing. Hardman is widely viewed as the No. 3 target for the Chiefs' offense. Here's the thing – there is no No. 3 target in the Chiefs' offense. Byron Pringle and DeMarcus Robinson both have two touchdowns compared to Hardman's one. Hardman leads those two with 38 targets – which is a good thing – and Hardman does have the most receiving yards out of the three. However, Pringle is right behind him, 289 to 243. Robinson actually leads the trio in routes run over the course of the season. He's also played on more snaps than Hardman. Needless to say, these three are a committee of sorts, one that saps the fantasy value out of all of them.
The truly crazy stat is Hardman's average depth of target. Many expected Hardman to bring a deep ball element to the offense, similar to Tyreek Hill, but his 7.7-yard depth of target leaves a lot to be desired. That ranks 68th among receivers averaging at least four targets per game and greatly minimizes his upside. When you combine the committee approach their No. 3 target spot, the limited volume and the lack of upside, Hardman becomes an easy guy fantasy managers can say good-bye to.
On the Hot Seat...
Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons
86.5% Rostered
The past two games have not been a good look for Mike Davis and Week 7 got worse – much worse. In Week 5, Davis was out-touched by Cordarrelle Patterson, 21 to 14. Patterson also had 114 scrimmage yards that week to Davis's 61. At least Davis still played more than Patterson, with a 64% snap share compared to Patterson's 59%. Being out-touched by that kind of a margin, however, was something to keep your eye on. One game isn't a red flag – yet, but it was something to watch.
Mike Davis got banged up very late, but note Cordarrelle Patterson handled 74% of ATL's RB carries. And CPatt ran 28 routes on 42 Matt Ryan dropbacks.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 25, 2021
Then came Week 7 and a major switch appeared to have happened. While it's important to never draw too many conclusions from the results of one game, I do think it's important to point out the Falcons had their bye in Week 6. If there's ever a time where an offense can implement or make some pretty sizeable changes to their offense or personnel, it's during their bye week.
In Week 7, Patterson out-snapped Davis, 73% to 60%. He also had had 12 more touches than Davis and 51 more scrimmage yards. In Week 5, the Falcons were without Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage . Both players returned in Week 7. Those added offensive weapons were always going to command touches from someone, that someone, through one game, appeared to be Mike Davis. If fantasy managers see another showing in Week 8 like the one we saw in Week 7, we may be wise to move on from Mike Davis.
Hold On
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
94.4% Rostered
Fantasy managers are understandably frustrated with Miles Sanders. Now is not the time to cut bait. On the opening drive vs the Raiders, Sanders had five carries and 30 yards. He also added another reception. Everything looked like he was well on his way to a big fantasy day. The Eagles finally made a point of getting him the football. Unfortunately, Sanders went down with a sprained ankle. He's being deemed as week-to-week and it sounds as if he'll only miss 1–3 weeks.
Mike Davis got banged up very late, but note Cordarrelle Patterson handled 74% of ATL's RB carries. And CPatt ran 28 routes on 42 Matt Ryan dropbacks.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 25, 2021
Then in Week 7 against the Buccaneers, he played 83% of the snaps compared to Kenneth Gainwell at just 23%. Sanders was a workhorse back prior to his injury. Those are all great reasons to stay invested in Miles Sanders. The snap counts are a great sign. The Eagles have one of the easiest schedules the rest of the season for running backs and it looked like the coaching staff learned they needed to throw the football.
Even after Sanders' injury, Gainwell didn't take over the backfield as many fantasy managers expected.
Miles Sanders (ankle) left after 12 snaps yesterday. Other RBs in a major trailing gameflow:
* Kenny Gainwell 35 snaps, 24 routes
* Boston Scott 23 snaps, 12 routes— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 25, 2021
Boston Scott came right in and played a role and even got a goal-line carry. Based on the snap shares in Weeks 5–6 and the running back usage for the Eagles after Sanders' injury, it would appear the coaching staff has a role for Gainwell and they intend to keep him in that role. That's a good sign, it means Sanders will likely come back to the same workload he had when he left. With an easier schedule and a higher commitment to the ground game, Sanders can yet be a fantasy asset down the stretch.
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