The Cut List - Who to Drop for Fantasy Football Week 15

Each new week of NFL games gives us more information to make more informed decisions. This is crucial when figuring out who to add and who to cut. It can be difficult to admit we were wrong on a particular player. For example, using a high draft pick on someone and cutting them so early in the season can be demoralizing. However, the only thing worse than making a mistake is not being able to admit we made one in the first place.

Don’t be afraid to make bold decisions, but be careful not to be too reactionary. Bad weeks are going to happen. Sometimes, opportunity doesn’t always translate into box-score success. The flip side of that is true, too. Sometimes, the box score can look amazing despite poor utilization. This article will help you determine who to send packing and how to value players whose value is falling.

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The Parameters

There are a few different categories here. Anyone listed under the “Insert Position to Cut for Insert Week” can be safely cut. Seems pretty self-explanatory, correct? No surprise there. We'll focus on players with rostered percentages higher than 40% to keep this a little more straightforward. Otherwise, we could name many players for every position every week.

The following two categories are “Uh-Oh…” and “On the Hot Seat.” If a player is listed under “Uh-Oh…” that doesn’t mean they’re a cut … yet. It just means their value is falling. That could be due to several reasons. Maybe it’s due to repeated inefficiency. Perhaps it’s due to a change in role and utilization. Whatever the reason, these players are not as valuable today as they were before last week’s games.

The other category is “On the Hot Seat.” This one is also pretty self-explanatory. These players do not need to be cut, although if you’re on the hot seat, there’s certainly an argument to be made that they could be cut if you’re in a tough roster predicament.

These players should be given one final shot to make your roster. Especially early in the season, we don’t want to overreact to a change in utilization or a bad week or two, but we also don’t want to ignore it. Players in this section are a bad week away from being on the cut list.

One of the final categories we'll sometimes touch on is "Hold On." These players may have had some bad weeks, but their utilization is good, indicating better days are ahead. Hold onto them. On occasion, we’ll also identify sell-high and sell-low players. A sell-high player is one whose production has spiked, but maybe their role creates questions about whether the production is sustainable.

These players have increased their value recently, so it makes sense to see if you can trade them at peak value. Players who are sell-lows are often players with a lot of name value. These players are best explained as “get some value for them while you still can before their value falls to nothing.”

Easy Cuts

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans – 79.1% Rostered

Stroud was a tough cut a few weeks ago, but with a matchup against the Jaguars, who have allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, I was willing to give Stroud one more shot. Despite getting Nico Collins back fully healthy, Stroud could still not even muster 15 points. He's only scored over 15 points (15.68) in one of his last seven games. He is now QB26 in PPG for the season.

Houston was on a bye in Week 14 and now returns to action with matchups against Miami, Kansas City, and Baltimore. The Ravens and Chiefs have allowed the fourth- and 11th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, respectively, which, in theory, should make Stroud a solid start. But he's failed to produce despite three mouthwatering matchups in the last three weeks.

The Cowboys, Titans, and Jaguars, their last three opponents, have allowed the fifth, ninth, and most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, respectively. Despite three straight top-10 matchups, Stroud scored under 15 points in two and averaged just 13.65 PPG. There's no way you can trust him.

Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs – 77.7% Rostered

Isiah Pacheco returned in Week 13 and the Chiefs utilized Pacheco and Hunt in a near 50/50 timeshare. They played almost identical snaps and had the same number of carries. Hunt had an edge in routes run, but that was it. Pacheco, however, was more productive. This past weekend, Pacheco started to reclaim his spot as the Chiefs' No. 1 running back.

#Chiefs RB Usage Week 14

- Isiah Pacheco: 48% snaps, 14 carries, 14 routes, 4 targets (61 yds)
- Kareem Hunt: 31% snaps, 5 carries, 11 routes, 1 target (29 yds)

Good step for Pacheco

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) December 9, 2024

He played 32 snaps to Hunt's 20. He also ran more routes than Hunt, but more importantly, he received 14 carries while Hunt only had five. This was always a matter of time, but it seems the time has come. Hunt is now nothing more than a handcuff, but he can no longer be counted on as a startable running back.

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos -  74.0% Rostered

If you want to hang onto Williams if Jaleel McLaughlin or Audric Estime get hurt, and that simplifies the Denver backfield, I get it, but he's completely unstartable right now. The Broncos were on a bye in Week 14, but in Week 13, their backfield utilization was a cluster.

While Williams paced the team in snaps played with 30 out of the team's 66, he had just four carries. McLaughlin, meanwhile, had 14. There's just no way of knowing how this backfield will shake out every week.

While he may very well have a good game during the season's final three games, predicting when that'll happen is almost impossible. It's hard to imagine finding a week when any fantasy manager is going to be planning on starting Williams. For that reason, if you need to cut Williams, even for an elite streaming defense in Week 16 or 17, I'm okay with making that swap.

Alexander Mattison, Las Vegas Raiders – 40.4% Rostered

With the way Las Vegas's season has shaken out, there's no reason to give Mattison his job back once he returns from injury. Sincere McCormick has played well, and while he's unlikely to be its long-term solution at the running back position, it makes sense to give the young player more reps in what is now a lost season.

Sincere McCormick's efficiency ranks among 75 qualifying RBs:

YPC: 6th
YACO/att: 9th
MTF/att: 21st
Explosive run %: 3rd

Zamir White:

YPC: 74th
YACO/att: 71st
MTF/att: 71st
Explosive run %: 66th

Alexander Mattison:

YPC: 67th
YACO/att: 54th
MTF/att: 48th
Explosive run %: 52nd

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) December 9, 2024

Forget the youth movement (although that's an excellent argument as it is), but McCormick has been the Raiders' more efficient and effective runner this season. I don't anticipate this being a committee even once Mattison returns. It'll be McCormick's backfield until the season's end, leaving Mattison without much value.

Other Players to Cut:

• Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans – 44.5% Rostered
• Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins – 40.7% Rostered
• Wan'Dale Robinson, New York Giants – 40.6% Rostered
• Diontae Johnson, Baltimore Ravens – 42.1% Rostered
• Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles – 66.0% Rostered
• Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons – 79.6% Rostered

Tough Cuts

Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers – 95.7% Rostered

Last week, I had Samuel, Rome Odunze, Tank Dell (on bye), and Amari Cooper as holds. The argument was they were all full-time players. They're all talented players, and all of their quarterbacks are either good or playing better lately. That ended up paying off with Cooper and Odunze this past week, but Deebo continued his poor production.

He now has four straight games with less than 5.0 half-PPR points. He hasn't had 25 receiving yards since Week 10. There's no way anyone can be starting him in the fantasy playoffs. He has a good matchup in Week 15, but it'll be tough to trust him.

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots – 57.8% Rostered

Henry hasn't done anything to deserve a spot on the tough-cut list, but his schedule doesn't get any worse. He's been a fine fantasy tight end but hasn't been lighting the world on fire.

He faces off against the Cardinals, who allow the sixth-fewest points to tight ends this season. In Week 16, he has the Bills. They've allowed the fifth-fewest points to tight ends this season. In Week 17, he goes up against the Chargers, who are allowing the ninth-fewest points to tight ends.

Drake Maye has played well and Henry has been one of his favorite targets, so there's no need to cut Henry if he's your starter or there aren't better options, but his playoff schedule is just about as brutal as it gets.

Hot Seat

Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers – 57.8%

If you're desperate for a starting running back, maybe you can't cut Edwards. Otherwise, however, Edwards is a borderline cuttable player. It's tough to say that about a starting running back. Especially one who plays for a winning team with a solid offense. Edwards has been incredibly disappointing since taking over for the injured J.K. Dobbins.

He's been held to less than 40 rushing yards in both starts. He only has one catch and offers nothing in the passing game. He hasn't had a single game with more than 10 touches since becoming the starter. Since returning from IR, Edwards has scored 5.5, 2.7, 7.1 (touchdown), 3.8, and 9.6 (touchdown) half-PPR points. He's giving fantasy managers 2-4 points without a touchdown and just 7-10 with a touchdown. He's a cuttable player unless you're truly desperate for a starting running back.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tennessee Titans – 47.6% Rostered

Ironically, a few weeks ago, there were plenty of comments about cutting Quentin Johnston while also advocating for Westbrook-Ikhine as a waiver wire add. They're the same player. Que the Pam meme from "The Office." Johnston has 53 targets, 29 receptions, 414 yards, and seven touchdowns. Westbrook-Ikhine has 40 targets, 21 receptions, 384 yards, and eight touchdowns.

Since Week 6, when Westbrook-Ikhine's touchdown barrage began, he has just one game with more than three catches out of nine contests. He has 50 yards or less in seven out of those nine. He's a touchdown-or-bust player, but he's only catching 1-2 passes per game.

Hold On

Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars – 88.4% Rostered

Tank Bigsby slightly out-snapped Etienne, but the bigger development was how the backfield workload was distributed. Etienne ran 18 routes, while Bigsby ran just nine. That led to Etienne finishing with four targets to Bigsby's two.

However, Bigsby did have 18 carries, which led to a bigger fantasy day, especially since he found the end zone. Etienne had just four carries. That's a big development. The team seems to have established new roles in its backfield.

Etienne is now the primary third-down and pass-catching back, while Bigsby is the primary ball carrier. However, it should be noted that Etienne handled the lone goal-line snap, but Bigsby handled the four other short-yardage plays.

This game was a close contest where Jacksonville could lean on the running game. That likely won't be the case moving forward. Etienne's value will be higher as they play in more negative game scripts. Due to his role in the passing game and the fact that he handled the lone goal-line touch, fantasy managers should hang onto Etienne.

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