The Cut List: Week 11 - Time to Let Go? Injury Special

June 7, 2021

Jamie Steed's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 11 of the fantasy season. This week focuses on players currently on the IL and whether or not they are worth stashing

Welcome back to the Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers should consider cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now. Over the last two weeks, I've had an increasing number of people ask about players currently on the IL. Given the recent glut of injuries, some fantasy teams are beginning to struggle to keep all of their injured players on their rosters, so we're going to focus on players currently on the IL and whether it's worth keeping them (all of whom are currently rostered in at least 50% of leagues). These will be players who are longer-term injured, not those only missing two weeks. We still have the usual Reddit requests for non-IL players and we'll take a deeper dive than normal on those players instead.

This isn't a "hard and fast" list of definite players to drop, but hopefully, it will act as a tool to help you with your roster decisions. I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two in the middle of the season is easily hidden across a whole season. We now have two months of the season in the books so have a pretty decent sample size on most players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

Before we begin, a reminder that every league has different settings, so how you manage IL players will differ per league. For example, one league I'm in has three IL spots and four bench spots while another league has three bench spots with one IL spot. Every player's timeline to return will be important as injuries mount up, as keeping someone on your IL who isn't due back until August may be fine for now. In the coming weeks though, you will no doubt get more injuries and that bench spot is too valuable to waste on someone who won't see the field for at least two more months. If you're lucky enough to not have any injuries, then it makes sense to stash anyone there.

Worth Dropping and Replacing

Didi Gregorius - SS, Philadelphia Phillies - 50% rostered

Gregorius hit the IL on May 18th with a right elbow impingement, and while that might not seem a big deal, especially given Gregorius bats left-handed, it's the same elbow he had Tommy John Surgery on in 2018. That might be why it was reported yesterday that Gregorius is not yet close to returning and hasn't begun to swing a bat with both arms. Until a timetable becomes clear, Gregorius can be held on your IL if you have the space to do so, but his performances to start the season weren't encouraging. Gregorius isn't worthwhile of stashing if you have someone else on your roster in need of the IL spot.

Kyle Lewis - OF, Seattle Mariners - 56% rostered

After missing the start of the year, Lewis had been warming up offensively before being diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his right knee earlier this week. Then on Thursday, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto said that he fears Lewis could be in line for a long-term absence. For context, Luke Voit had a partial meniscus tear back in late March and he returned after seven weeks. It's not clear whether Lewis will be out for longer, but even if he has a similar timeframe to return as Voit, that'll take us up to late July/early August. If we receive news that Lewis will be out for longer, he can be dropped with confidence. If you do lose someone else to injury in the interim, Lewis should be considered droppable.

Noah Syndergaard - SP, New York Mets - 56% rostered

Last week, Syndergaard made his second rehab start on his road back from Tommy John Surgery. Unfortunately, it did not end well. After getting through four innings in his first rehab start, Syndergaard only lasted one inning the second time around due to an elbow injury. Thankfully, there doesn't appear to be any structural damage to his recently repaired elbow, but he does have inflammation and won't be able to throw again for six weeks. That was one week ago, so based on that timeline, Syndergaard won't be throwing again until around July 8.

That's throwing, not pitching. It could be another two weeks until he can pitch, then a rehab assignment, and then a return to the Majors. Optimistically, and assuming Syndergaard has no further setbacks, late August is when you can expect a return. Even if he does return then, you'll still only be getting a handful of starts from someone who hasn't pitched in MLB for two years. Syndergaard can be dropped for anyone else on your roster who needs the IL spot.

Chris Sale - SP, Boston Red Sox  - 67% rostered

Sale is also returning from Tommy John Surgery and threw 20 pitches earlier this week (fastballs and changeups only). His slider will likely be the last thing he works on and will hold the key for his return, both when it can happen and how effective he could be. Given Sale has begun throwing, a rehab assignment could be possible in 2-3 weeks, which makes a late July return possible. Given the Red Sox are in contention for a playoff spot, they won't want to rush Sale back in the hope he could be a difference-maker in the playoffs, especially as he's under contract until at least through 2024.

Syndergaard should act as a reminder that returning from TJS is a long and arduous process and there's still no telling what Sale will pitch like when he does get back. At best, you're likely to have two months of Sale for your team and the Red Sox will probably wrap him in cotton wool. He's fine to drop if you need to use the IL spot for someone currently on your roster.

Hold For Now

Luis Severino - SP, New York Yankees  - 51% rostered

Severino is the furthest along on his road to recovery from TJS among the trio and is expected to begin his rehab assignment on Sunday. If all goes according to plan, Severino should spend the remainder of June building up and a return in early July is on the cards. Again, we need to remind ourselves that recovery from TJS isn't a sure thing, and even if he remains healthy, he still needs to regain his effectiveness. Given he could be back with the Yankees in four weeks, if his rehab goes well, half a season of Severino could provide a boost to a team competing to win.

Carlos Carrasco - SP, New York Mets - 62% rostered

Carrasco is expected to be back in late June/early July, although that has become a bit cloudier. Carrasco built up to six innings during simulated games in May and was expected to go out on a rehab assignment by now, but he's yet to do so and the Mets haven't provided any news in nearly two weeks. The Mets did insist there's been no setback and it's possible they are treading very carefully. No news is good news, right? Keep a watch for any updates, and providing Carrasco hasn't had any setbacks, he could still be a difference-maker in fantasy upon his return.

Corey Kluber - SP, New York Yankees  - 67% rostered

Kluber's renaissance came to a screeching halt when he was diagnosed with a subscapularis strain in his right shoulder. Thankfully, surgery wasn't required and Kluber is expected to begin a throwing program soon. When the injury was diagnosed, we were told there's a four-week recovery until he could throw again and then there would be another four-week rehab, leaving us with an expected return date of late July. Despite the sooner-than-expected return to throwing, the Yankees will still be cautious with the veteran pitcher and we shouldn't expect to see him before late July. If he does recover well and returns as expected, Kluber is still worthwhile keeping on your rosters.

Luis Robert - OF, Chicago White Sox - 67% rostered

Robert tore his right hip flexor in early May, and after opting to not have surgery, was expected to miss multiple months. Last week, Robert was transferred to the 60-day IL, which rules him out until July at the earliest. Given the initial timetable was for eight weeks, this shouldn't have any impact on his return. Robert was off to a hot start, with a .316/.359/.463 with a homer and four steals prior to the injury. If the initial eight-week timeline was accurate, Robert could be a top 25 outfielder the remainder of the season after his return and should be considered worthwhile of being stashed. If that timeline extends considerably, that needs to be reconsidered.

Michael Conforto - OF, New York Mets - 74% rostered

Conforto hit the IL on May 17 with a right hamstring strain. A week later, news broke that the hamstring strain is a "significant one" and is expected to keep him out until late June. There hasn't been any tangible update in nearly two weeks (as is the Mets way) so we're still working on that timeline. Prior to the injury, Conforto had been disappointing with a .230/.356/.336 line, hit two homers and six doubles. There's been nothing to suggest Conforto had been dealing with this injury prior to hitting the IL, so hopefully he'll pick things upon his return. As long as he remains due to return in around three weeks, Conforto is worth holding on to.

Luke Voit - 1B, New York Yankees - 81% rostered

As mentioned earlier, Voit started the year on the IL following a meniscus tear. His return didn't last long as an oblique strain saw the slugger return to the IL just two weeks later. Last weekend, Aaron Boone said he expects Voit "to miss at least a few weeks." Although an ambiguous statement, we can expect Voit to be out until July and it'll likely be the latter half of the month. He did struggle on his return from the knee injury, but that was just a two-week sample. Voit doesn't seem set to appear until the 100-games played mark, but given he led the league in homers last year with 22 in 56 games, Voit could still provide huge value on his return. He is worth stashing providing his return isn't put back much more.

On the Hot Seat

Stephen Strasburg - SP, Washington Nationals - 93% rostered

Strasburg's 2020 campaign ended early (after two starts) and resulted in him having surgery for carpal tunnel syndrome. He managed to make his 2021 season debut on April 7, but soon returned to the IL after just two starts due to right shoulder inflammation. Once again, Strasburg returned (May 22) and this time managed three starts before heading back to the IL with what's being called a neck strain. He could be seen shaking his arm during his start which lasted just 1.1 IP, something that has caused alarm.

Strasburg hasn't been a stranger to the IL since his 2010 debut and this will be his 13th separate stint on the IL. This is his twelfth season in MLB and he's totaled just 1465.1 IP. He threw 209.0 IP in 2019 to offer hope he was over his injury history, but the last twelve months have reminded us how difficult it is to stay healthy as a pitcher. His injury history doesn't make for pretty reading. Below are all his IL stints.

2010 - Right shoulder inflammation
2010 - Right forearm flexor strain (resulted in TJS)
2013 - Lat strain
2015 - Neck tightness
2015 - Left oblique strain
2016 - Back strain
2016 - Right elbow soreness
2017 - Right elbow nerve impingement
2018 - Right shoulder inflammation
2018 - Cervical nerve impingement
2020 - Right carpal tunnel neuritis
2021 - Right shoulder inflammation
2021 - Neck strain

No timeline has been offered for Strasburg, and given his track record, he could be back in two weeks or two months. The worry is when he does return, can he remain on the field long enough to be rosterable in fantasy? I sure hope so as it's tough seeing someone go through so many injuries, especially when they possess the talent Strasburg does. My fear is that his injury history is catching up with him and this is the beginning of the end. I hope it isn't, but I've lost faith in Strasburg being able to stay healthy and effective enough to warrant consideration.

If you don't need to IL spot for someone else, by all means, keep Strasburg and hope he can return healthy and back to his best. I'd probably be looking to trade him away after a couple of starts on his return (or now in dynasty) to someone who has more faith in his health than I do.

The Reddit Requests

As always, here are the most commonly mentioned players from last week's Reddit thread. Please note, that this was written on Friday afternoon before any Friday games had begun so double-check the player's statuses before taking any action. Normal service will resume next week.

Alec Bohm - 1B/3B, Philadelphia Phillies - 65% rostered

Bohm debuted last year and in 44 games, hit four homers and had a .338/.400/.481 slash line. This year, Bohm is hitting just .213/.257/.310 with four homers in 54 games. His walk rate is down (from 8.9% to 6.1%) and his strikeout rate is up (from 20.0% to 27.6%). Bohm's three steals have come as a nice surprise given he had just nine in his Minor League career (165 games) and one last year. Bohm's counting stats have been solid as his 25 RBI are as many as Austin Riley and more than Matt Chapman.

Bohm had a preseason ADP of ~107, so he hasn't been able to return value on that. Given he was likely a bit overvalued, that shouldn't be a surprise. A look at his underlying numbers does suggest Bohm has been unlucky and we should expect better days ahead. His expected batting average (xBA) is .265, his xSLG is .427 and his xwOBA of .318 is considerably better than his actual wOBA (.250). Bohm's xBA is actually in the 67th percentile, and while his power has never been a big part of his game (21 homers in 165 MiLB), his average exit velocity (92.4 MPH) is in the 92nd percentile.

Bohm's batted ball profile is similar to last year, and while a batting average north of .300 shouldn't have been expected for a player with just 44 MLB games entering this season, the numbers suggest it should be considerably better than the .213 it currently is. He doesn't turn 25 years old until August and he's still yet to play 100 MLB games, so it's more than likely we see improvements during the remainder of 2021 and longer-term.

Verdict - I'm still bullish on Bohm and think his luck will turn, driving up the batting average with it. He's managed to tally a solid amount of runs and RBI despite his disappointing slash line, so if he does manage to heat up, 10-12 homers the rest of the way is possible and he could end the year with ~85 RBI and ~75 runs. That would represent a solid return from the corner infield position in any league.

Nick Solak - 2B/3B/OF, Texas Rangers - 78% rostered

Solak entered 2021 with a career .277/.351/.397 slash line from his 91 MLB games and had an ADP ~170 in preseason drafts. He'd hit seven homers and stolen nine bases prior to this year. As of now, Solak is currently hitting .235/.311/.406 on the year and already has eight home runs and two steals. Overall, they're pretty solid numbers, but the concern for fantasy managers is the slide Solak has been on. That's because his season so far has been a story of two halves.

By the end of April, Solak had a .293/.375/.535 line and hit seven of his eight homers in the first month, as well as one of his stolen bases on the year. Since May 1, Solak has hit just .186/.258/.297 with one homer and one steal. If we look over his batted ball profile, the most discernable difference is his fly ball rate (FB%) which has jumped from 29.9% in April to 40.2% in May. That's come at the cost of his line drive rate (LD% down from 26.9% to 17.1%). His HR/FB of 30.0% in April has plummeted down to 3.0% in May. That is despite his hard-hit rate (hard%) going up from 29.9% to 36.1%.

So Solak hit the ball harder in May, hit more fly balls in May, yet his numbers fell off a cliff. Given all his expected stats for the season are only a bit better than his actual numbers, the conclusion I'm coming to is Solak had some good luck in April and bad luck in May, leaving his current numbers about what we should expect moving forward. For the remainder of the season, I'd project around 12 homers, eight steals, 50 runs and 40 RBI (depending on where he hits in the lineup most frequently) with a .250 average. That's still solid numbers for a second baseman. The only slight concern is his 50% success rate in stolen base attempts given it was 90% prior to this season.

Verdict - I'm still holding Solak, as outside of a poor May, he's been a solid hitter throughout his short MLB career. The fact his April and May splits don't really make much sense, I'm starting to suspect the ball is a little more "deadened" than we're being led to believe and the increased fly balls are leading to more outs than the line drives he was hitting during the first few weeks of the season. If we flip his two months around, we'd be talking about someone off to a slow start who is heating up and should be picked up in all leagues.

Zach Eflin - SP, Philadelphia Phillies - 80% rostered

Eflin entered 2021 as a trendy sleeper, with an ADP of ~187 following his 2020 season in which he had a 4-2 record (10 starts) and a 3.97 ERA. While that's nothing amazing, people noticed his 3.27 xFIP, 3.50 SIERA and career-high 28.6% K%. This year has been something of a similar tale. Eflin currently sports a 4.10 ERA but an impressive 3.27 xFIP and 3.43 SIERA. His K% isn't as high as last year, but at 24.5%, it's still much better than his pre-2020 career K% of 17.6%.

Of Eflin's 11 starts, four have seen him give up four or more earned runs and prior to his last two starts, Eflin had a 3.77 ERA. He has run into a bit of bother recently. Before his last start at Tampa Bay, in which he only managed 4.2 IP, Eflin had got through six innings in all ten starts. That's been largely due to his outstanding 2.9% BB%, which is in the 99th percentile of all pitchers. That's led to Eflin tallying seven quality starts this year which is in stark contrast to his 2-5 record. Only eight pitchers have had more quality starts in 2021 than Eflin.

Verdict - Eflin's lacked run support to help him tally more wins, which is something he has no control over. His underlying numbers paint a picture of someone who has been unlucky despite still putting up solid numbers. His strikeout rate is above league average and his walk rate is elite, so Eflin is a starting pitcher who should be held on to and actually someone I'd target in trades as a "buy-low" candidate after his last two starts. 

Blake Snell - SP, San Diego Padres - 94% rostered

The irony of Snell only managing to get through six innings once this year after what happened in the World Series seemingly acting as a catalyst to his departure from Tampa Bay hasn't been lost on me. Snell was having a solid enough season with a 3.79 ERA and 33.0% K% through his first nine starts. His last two starts have been dreadful, failing to get through the fourth inning in both and giving up a combined 12 earned runs. That's seen his ERA leap to an unsightly 5.55 ERA.

All season, Snell has struggled with walks and his 14.2% BB% is in the 11th percentile among pitchers. Snell has allowed three or more walks in six of his 11 starts and only once has he allowed fewer than two walks. Even that was at home to the historically bad-on-the-road Rockies team. Although his walk rate is atrocious, his strikeout numbers are keeping him relevant and respectable. His K% and Whiff% are both in the 87th percentile. If they weren't as high as they are, his ERA could be even worse, which is likely why his xERA is still a lowly 4.94.

On the plus side, Snell has a 3.60 xFIP, 3.99 SIERA and .333 BABIP, which all suggest he's been unlucky. Before his last two starts, Snell was putting up decent numbers. Granted, not the numbers you'd want from someone drafted as a borderline SP1, but certainly not someone you'd consider dropping. He's due to face the Mets on Friday night and that game will have finished by the time you've read this. That should present a good opportunity to get back on track for Snell.

Verdict - Even at this stage of the season, we can see how quickly someone's numbers can change with two bad starts jumping Snell's ERA up by 1.76. The walk rate is a concern, but he was still a serviceable fantasy pitcher before his last two starts so you shouldn't have any knee-jerk reaction and consider dumping him because of those two outings.

Anthony Rendon - 3B, Los Angeles Angels - 96% rostered

Since 2016, Rendon has been one of the game's best hitters and could even be considered undervalued in fantasy. Between 2016-2020, Rendon had a .298/.387/.526 slash line with 112 homers, 406 runs, 434 RBI and 26 steals in 637 games. That's a 162-game pace of 28.5 home runs, 103 runs, 110 RBI and 6.6 steals. The steals have dried up as Rendon had none last year and only has seven since 2018. However, he was still one of the league's best hitters and with an ADP ~40 coming into 2021, was seen as one of the safest picks in the early rounds.

So far this year, he's been anything but one of the best hitters in baseball and is sporting a miserable .229/.306/.344 line with three homers in 31 games. Rendon missed most of early May with a knee injury, and since his return on May 14, he is hitting just .192/.272/.247 with only four extra-base hits (all doubles). If we're looking for positive signs, Rendon has hit .292/.320/.417 in his last six games and has three doubles in that time, so there's every possibility he's slowly getting over the knee injury and starting to rediscover his form with better health.

Despite his struggles, Rendon's 16.3% K% is still in the 81st percentile, although it is higher than his career mark of 15.4%. His 9.5% BB% is also down on his career mark of 10.7%. His expected stats are only marginally better than his actual stats, so we can't even put his struggles down to bad luck. The loss of Mike Trout is a big blow, and other than Shohei Ohtani and Jared Walsh, the Angels lineup isn't particularly productive. Yet, Rendon has still tallied 19 RBI and 14 runs in 35 games, which is 88 RBI and 65 runs over 162 games.

Verdict - The fact Rendon has hit much better this week makes me inclined to believe his struggles have been due to his knee injury and he's finally starting to get healthy. If that is the case, we could see a top-100 player the rest of the season. Someone with his track record of consistent excellence shouldn't be dropped at this stage of the season, especially as there are little seedlings showing signs of life since last weekend.

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