The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 6

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

We're moving into May and have built up a decent picture of what we can expect from certain players moving forward. Early trends are becoming the norm and cold starts are becoming prolonged struggles, causing some red flags on their value moving forward. But it's important to try and identify the causes of a player's issues before we just abandon ship on them.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone, especially as we're still early in the season. As the year progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Garrett Whitlock - SP/RP, Boston Red Sox - 33% rostered

I was set to say Whitlock was droppable in redraft leagues after his early season struggles, limited experience as a Major League starter and poor strikeout numbers. I was concerned he was pitching with some sort of injury and then it was announced on Friday that he was being placed on the 15-day IL with "right elbow ulnar neuritis".

If that specific injury sounds familiar, it's what Jeffrey Springs was diagnosed with earlier this month before he underwent Tommy John Surgery (TJS), ending his season before it got going. Alex Cora said that they hope Whitlock will miss just two starts, so that at least sounds promising.

If Whitlock has avoided a serious injury, he'll be looking to improve on his 1-2 W-L record, 6.19 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 11 Ks (16.0 IP). His 4.69 xFIP and 4.63 SIERA suggest his numbers should improve but maybe not to the point where he's a viable fantasy option.

Verdict: If you have an IL spot available, using it for Whitlock is fine. But any setback or updates that Cora was overly optimistic in his return will leave him droppable in all formats, except dynasty leagues. If I had to choose between stashing Whitlock or another player on the IL, I'd probably use it on the other guy in 90% of cases.

David Peterson - SP/RP, New York Mets - 21% rostered

Peterson's start on Friday was an almost perfect microcosm of how his season is going. After completing four shutout innings against the Braves (allowing just one walk and one hit), Peterson was tagged for four runs in the fifth inning, which ultimately proved to be the final inning after the game was called due to the weather.

That has left him with a season line of a 1-4 W-L record, 7.34 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 36 Ks (30.2 IP). I'm pretty sure when the Mets put together their roster for this season, they wouldn't have planned for Peterson to lead the team in innings pitched at the end of April, but that's exactly what's happened.

On the plus side, Peterson has been a solid source of strikeouts with his 26.1% K% ranking in the 68th percentile. He had a 27.8% K% last year so this isn't a fluke. And he's sporting a 3.25 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA so that ERA looks inflated by bad luck.

My concern with Peterson is despite having a five-pitch arsenal, none of his pitches have a Stuff+ rating of 100 or better. His sinker (92) and slider (98) are the only ones over 90 and have been thrown 43.8% combined.

Verdict: If you've been keeping Peterson in deeper leagues, I wouldn't drop him now and would be hoping his luck does turn around. In shallower leagues, Peterson was only a streaming option and there's every chance he loses his job when Justin Verlander (injury) and Max Scherzer (suspension) return, which will likely be in early May.

Oscar Colas - OF, Chicago White Sox - 11% rostered

Before the season began, I anointed Colás as the second-best outfield prospect for redraft leagues in 2023. I will hold my hands up and say that appears to have been wrong. Ordinarily, I'd be more patient with a rookie who has the power potential Colás possesses, but the early signs are troublesome.

The main issue I have with Colás is the complete lack of quality contact he's been making. He can hit the ball hard, the problem is that's happening so rarely, it's almost a complete surprise when he does. Colás' Statcast profile offers the best visual representation of it.

If Colás was making solid contact, I'd be more bullish but his .208/.269/.278 slash line is indicative of where he is as outlined by his expected numbers (.195 xBA, .290 xSLG and .251 xwOBA). Something that is even uglier for Colás is his hits spray chart.

When only three of your hits have actually reached the outfield after four weeks of the season, it's not a good sign. And that will also help explain why Colás only has one homer, six RBI, eight runs and two stolen bases. If quality contact is king, I'm afraid Colás is currently the court jester.

Verdict: I still believe Colás can (and will) have a productive MLB career. But he seems completely overawed right now and my concern in the preseason about a lack of track record in the Minors (118 games of which only seven were at Triple-A) seems to be justified. Colás is a candidate to be sent back to Triple-A and there will likely be a better option on waivers in almost any redraft league.

Hold For Now

Alejandro Kirk - C, Toronto Blue Jays - 83% rostered

After being drafted as a top-10 catcher this year, it's been a so-so start for Kirk's fantasy managers. Through 20 games, he's hitting .263/.419/.386 with two homers, ten RBI, seven runs and no stolen bases. Prior to Friday's 3-for-4 performance, Kirk was hitting .226, just to remind everyone how quickly a batter's numbers can improve after one big game.

Before Friday, Kirk was ranked outside the top 20 catchers in fantasy this year (on Yahoo!). After Friday's performance, Kirk was ranked 16th at the position. One game basically took Kirk from being not worth rostering in one-catcher leagues to being back as one of the better options.

And that's one of the reasons I've been preaching patience with Kirk, in that there isn't much in the way of improvement on waivers. Certainly, no one with the upside Kirk possesses after he hit .285/.372/.415 with 14 homers, 63 RBI, 59 runs and no steals last year. And Friday has certainly helped to act as a reminder of what he can do at the plate.

The main concern coming into this season was playing time after Danny Jansen emerged as a competent hitter and was already a better defensive option behind home plate. So Kirk would end up seeing most of his time as the Blue Jays DH. But 13 of his starts have been at catcher with four starts as the DH (and three appearances off the bench).

If we compare the numbers between Kirk and Jansen over the last two seasons, we'll see that they have their own qualities with Jansen being a better power option but Kirk having a more rounded profile (no pun intended).

But Kirk has been solid defensively and his numbers aren't bad so far. Thankfully, Jensen hasn't hit anywhere close to like he did last year so isn't pressing to keep Kirk out of the lineup regularly. As long as Kirk doesn't slump and find himself on the bench more often, I'd continue keeping him on my rosters.

Christian Walker - 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks - 77% rostered

Last year, only Pete Alonso (40) had more home runs among first basemen than Walker (36). Walker only had a .242 batting average and came into the season with a career .246 batting average, so the power is essential to provide fantasy value. And so far, both facets have been lacking.

After 26 games, Walker is hitting .255/.290/.439 with four homers, 19 RBI, 11 runs and one stolen base. Extrapolated over 162 games, that would give Walker 25 home runs, 118 RBI, 69 runs and six stolen bases. Still a down year for power but still a productive fantasy line.

Oh, and Walker came into the weekend series in Colorado hitting .227/.268/.386. A 5-for-10 series so far with one homer, four RBI and two runs should have removed Walker from being on the bubble of your teams. Yes, it's in Coors Field, but your fantasy standings don't care where his homers are hit.

There were justifiable concerns that last year was an outlier but Walker did hit 29 homers in 2019 (152 games) so has previous when it comes to above-average power. And the Diamondbacks rank eighth in runs scored (141) so hitting cleanup every game will help Walker continue to tally the RBI he has done so already. He currently ranks sixth in RBI among first basemen.

There isn't anything in Walker's underlying numbers to suggest he'll reach 35 homers again this year but he's hitting .348/.380/.587over the last fortnight and after avoiding missing more than a day with the forearm injury he sustained earlier this week, he shouldn't be considered as someone playing through an injury.

It does look like pitchers have adapted to Walker's strength and pitching to him differently. Below is a graphic that shows Walker's wOBA last year based on where pitches were thrown in and around the strike zone.

We can see Walker's strength was against pitches inside and along the middle of the horizontal part of the zone, while he struggled with pitches down in the zone. The below graphic shows the location of the total number of pitches he's faced before the weekend series in Colorado.

The pitches down and away is similar to last year but he's also seeing more up and away as well as up in the zone. Walker saw 13.3% of pitches in the top three sections of the strike zone last season and 10.1% missing up and away. This year, it is 14.7% in the top three sections of the strike zone last season and 11.7% missing up and away.

They're not huge differences and it's something that could even out over a larger sample. But given Walker's power numbers are only slightly down on last year's pace, small changes such as this can be difference makers when looking at smaller samples.

It has only taken a couple of games for Walker to be on course for having a very productive fantasy season and he remains worthy of rostering in any league as a corner infielder. Unless he has a lingering injury or slumps and finds himself down the order, I'm holding Walker without much concern.

Hayden Wesneski - SP, Chicago Cubs - 25% rostered

After a couple of rough outings, Wesneski has seemingly turned the corner and has started to look like the starting pitcher many fantasy managers had hoped for. After five starts, Wesneski has a 2-1 W-L record, 5.24 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 15 Ks. As a whole, nothing to warrant a second look at, but he has a 2.76 ERA over his last three starts.

Despite his recent success, there are some warning signs. His best outing (7.0 IP and allowed one run) came against the Athletics and he still has a 5.13 xFIP and 5.31 SIERA on the season. Those last three starts in which Wesneski has a 2.76 ERA have combined for a 4.59 xFIP and 4.64 SIERA.

If we break down his arsenal, it's got some promise but contains one rather large red flag. The below table shows each pitch, the numbers against them and their Stuff+ rating.

Without completely ditching (or remodeling) his fastball, Wesneski isn't going to find much success with it. His secondary pitches (other than the changeup) have been good with his sweeper especially effective as evidenced by the above numbers and 34.1% Whiff%. But he's being held back by that fastball.

To put his fastball into context, 109 starting pitchers have completed at least 20 innings and thrown a fastball. Only 17 of them have a worse Stuff+ on their fastball than Wesneski. On the flip side of that, 94 pitchers have a sweeper/slider and at least 20 innings pitched. Only nine of them have a better Stuff+ than Wesneski's sweeper.

Wesneski is a tale of two pitches. His fastball is bad and his sweeper is excellent. If he can either improve the fastball to the point it's useful or cut down its usage so it isn't something that can be ambushed as often, Wesneski could easily become a much better fantasy option.

I still like Wesneski enough to suggest he's worth rostering in all but shallow leagues. The fact his fastball had a scouting grade of 60 (on the 20-80 scale) prior to his promotion makes me believe he can improve it and become a middle-of-the-rotation guy. That will be enough to warrant rostering him in most leagues.

On the Hot Seat

Blake Snell - SP, San Diego Padres - 87% rostered

Is there a more divisive pitcher in fantasy baseball than Snell? There's likely not a more frustrating one, that's for sure. Despite his nasty stuff and obvious talent, he's never been able to come close to replicating his 2018 Cy Young Award season, when Snell had a 21-5 W-L record, 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 221 Ks (180.2 IP).

That was the only year in which Snell has topped 130.0 IP but he's still been able to provide fantasy value due to his strikeouts. Between 2019 to 2022, 69 pitchers totaled at least 400.0 IP. Of that group, Snell's 31.9% K% was the sixth best and he ranked tied-22nd overall for total strikeouts (551), despite being 61st for total innings pitched among the group during those four years.

Snell's most obvious issue is the number of walks he's allowing. He's always had a pretty high walk rate and came into the season with a career 10.0% BB%. This year, Snell has a 16.5% BB% (seventh percentile) and he's walked three or more batters in four of his five starts this year.

That has contributed to Snell having a 0-4 W-L record, 5.48 ERA, 1.87 WHIP and 26 Ks (23.0 IP). Given Snell also has a 5.14 xFIP and 5.36 SIERA, his ERA seems to be justified. And if we look a little deeper, we can identify the issue. Snell's fastball. The below table shows the numbers on each of Snell's four pitches this year.

It's fair to say the Stuff+ numbers don't really tie up with the results or the expected numbers, especially with his fastball. But it doesn't matter how good your stuff is if you can't command it properly. So I wanted to do a little comparison between Snell's fastball with a couple of other pitchers.

I compared Snell's fastball heatmap with two left-handed starters who have thrown a similar number of four-seam fastballs as Snell (281). Andrew Heaney has thrown 283 four-seam fastballs and Justin Steele has thrown 282, so they seem like worthwhile candidates for this process.

Below is a table comparing some numbers for each of their fastballs and that's followed by the heatmaps for all three.

Snell's heatmap is so vastly different from Steele's and Heaney's in that it covers a huge area and a big portion of his fastballs are in the heart of the strike zone. Despite lesser velocity and lower Stuff+ ratings, Steele and Heaney have had more success with their fastballs due to the better control and command they have of it.

And speaking of velocity, although Snell's is the fastest of that trio, it's down 1.3 MPH from last year. Although it's a small sample compared to a full season, Snell's 58.4% usage of the fastball is a career-high. More usage plus worse control plus diminished velocity equals a recipe for disaster. And that's what we've seen from Snell so far.

But, I'm not ready to say Snell is droppable just yet. Not only are the strikeouts still useful, but we've seen periods like this from Snell before. After six starts last year (35.1 IP), Snell had a 5.60 ERA. He put up a 2.53 ERA the rest of the way (92.2 IP). In 2021, Snell had a 5.55 ERA after 11 starts (47.0 IP). He had a 3.42 ERA over the rest of the season (81.2 IP).

Even in his Cy Young Award season, Snell had a 3.12 ERA after nine starts (52.0 IP) and then a 1.40 ERA over the rest of the season (128.2 IP). Snell isn't always a slow starter (as evidenced by his career 3.37 ERA in March/April) but he has got off to slow starts before and then dominated throughout the rest of the season.

That is why I'm not prepared to discard Snell just yet. I'm not going to start him every time and he will likely be sat on my bench over the next week or two. If the results are still bad at that point, then I'll be making a decision on whether or not to roster him. For now, the ice beneath him is thinning but not quite beginning to crack.

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

We had over 200 comments on last weekend's Cut List, a third straight week of topping the 200 mark on Reddit. So for the third straight week, we're going to cover five players here rather than the usual three.

Taylor Ward - OF, Los Angeles Angels - 83% rostered

Ward is an example of someone who is a better real-life player than a fantasy one. But that's not to say he isn't a solid fantasy option. After 28 games, Ward has three homers, ten RBI, 18 runs and one stolen base with a .208/.315/.311.

The reason I say Ward is a better real-life player is that his statline is only good enough to rank 70th among outfield-eligible players (on Yahoo!). Two days ago he ranked 47th so a bad series can alter a player's numbers just as much as a good series can at this stage.

Yet he's been a mainstay in the Angels team, starting all but one game as the leadoff hitter and a fixture in the outfield. That was until last night when Ward was dropped down to seventh in the lineup. Ward has better numbers against RHP than LHP so I'm not too worried about a platoon but this is something worth monitoring over the next week or so.

Ward's 11.3% BB% ranks in the 75th percentile and that has helped him stay atop the order as long as he has. Ward is also in the 91st percentile for Outs Above Average which will help keep him in the lineup despite any struggles. Plays like this will help with that.

TAYLOR WARD ROBS A GRAND SLAM. pic.twitter.com/BsoZEAt2DS

— MLB (@MLB) April 25, 2023

For fantasy, although most leagues don't count walks or OBP and very few count defense as a scoring category. But those are things that will keep Ward in the lineup and (hopefully) batting leadoff. Any time you can hit in front of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, you'll have fantasy value. That has helped Ward to be tied-14th in runs scored among all outfielders.

Ward isn't going to be a top-tier fantasy option but he does enough things well to remain a solid option. In leagues where you start more than three outfielders, Ward is definitely someone who should be considered rosterable.

He will at least continue to be a great source of runs while chipping in among the other categories, assuming he maintains his position as the Angels leadoff hitter. If that is no longer the case and yesterday was the start of him hitting in the bottom third, we will need to reconsider his value in all but deeper leagues.

Tyler O'Neill - OF, St. Louis Cardinals - 83% rostered

It's been a pretty rough year for O'Neill so far. Not only is he hitting just .247/.307/.370 with two homers, six RBI, 11 runs and one stolen base (25 games), but he's finding playing time harder to come by and fell foul of manager Oliver Marmol earlier this season after a perceived lack of hustle, which saw him benched.

“These conversations could have been had in-house” -Tyler O’Neill after being benched in today’s game pic.twitter.com/j3m4Q2Lyz8

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 5, 2023

It was certainly an episode that didn't go down too well with O'Neill and something which did catch my eye at the time is maybe it wasn't a lack of hustle but instead, O'Neill just isn't as fast as he was. That seems to be the case given he has a 27.9 ft/sec sprint speed this year, down from 29.8 ft/sec last year.

But, O'Neill worked his way back into the lineup shortly after and soon found himself part of a very crowded outfield. Rookie Jordan Walker was sent down to Triple-A earlier in the week to try and free up the logjam but Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson and Alec Burleson are all getting regular starts.

O'Neill's starts have generally been hitting in the bottom half of the lineup so with all that being considered, you might expect me to say he's droppable. But, I'm not going to do that. I'll instead some reasons for optimism.

One reason is O'Neill's expected numbers. He has a .277 xBA (78th percentile), .497 xSLG (80th percentile) and .360 xwOBA (76th percentile). Another is O'Neill's quality of contact, with his 15.4% Barrel% ranking in the 87th percentile and 48.1% HardHit% ranking in the 80th percentile.

Both of those are much closer to his 2021 numbers when O'Neill hit .286/.352/.560 with 34 homers, 80 RBI, 89 runs and 15 stolen bases. The underlying numbers don't suggest a repeat of that but as long as he doesn't find himself exclusively as the Cardinals fourth outfielder, 20-25 homers and 10-12 steals are still in play.

The Cardinals are going to have to work out how to best utilize the outfielders on their roster and that could mean trading one at some point. You'd have to think after the incident earlier in the season, O'Neill would be a leading candidate for any trade and the right landing spot could see him seriously break out like it's 2021.

Amed Rosario - SS/OF, Cleveland Guardians - 78% rostered

It's not been a great start for Rosario, but like we've mentioned with so many hitters this week, he's one big game from being on track to match last year and his projections. After 22 games, he's hitting .226/.260/.333 with one homer, five RBI, 12 runs and five stolen bases.

We've covered some hitters who have seen their numbers jump up significantly after one or two big games. To help display what can change for Rosario (or anyone else) after one big day at the plate, the table below shows Rosario's numbers in 2021, 2022 and then this year on his current pace (150 games) and a 150-game pace if he went 4-for-4 with a three-run homer today.

Rosario is already on pace for a career-high in stolen bases and is one big series away from being on track for his best fantasy season. He avoided an IL stint with a back injury and settled back in as the Guardians number two hitter so fantasy managers at least need not worry about him being hurt.

My one concern with Rosario is his 27.0% K% which is considerably up from last year (16.6% K%) and his career mark (20.0% K%). But that's still in the 37th percentile so isn't anything that will be overly detrimental to his fantasy value and as long as his role remains, Rosario is still a solid option in any league.

Jose Miranda - 1B/3B, Minnesota Twins - 55% rostered

If you're not bored of hearing it already, Miranda is a good example of what a big game can do. Coming into Wednesday's game with the Yankees, Miranda was homerless, had a .226 batting average with only eight RBI and six runs. That was a 162-game pace of 54 RBI and 41 runs.

By the end of Wednesday, Miranda had hit his first and second home runs of the season. Entering Sunday, Miranda has three homers, 12 RBI, 11 runs and no stolen bases with a .243/.308/.355 slash line (28 games). Nothing to be overly excited about but that's a 162-game pace of 17 homers, 69 RBI, 64 runs and no steals. Other than the batting average, that's slightly above his projections.

And I'm not worried about the batting average as Miranda has a .272 xBA along with a .382 xSLG and .316 xwOBA (.294 wOBA). A little bit better luck and Miranda would be almost exactly where his projections would have him at this stage. He's probably not someone you have to draft in shallower leagues but I have no massive concerns about needing to drop Miranda.

Anthony Rendon - 3B, Los Angeles Angels - 49% rostered

Rendon is closing in on going 12 months without homering. Granted, he missed most of last year through injury, which has been a regular theme for Rendon. He managed only 105 games in the two years prior to 2023 and this year hasn't started as he, or the Angels, would have hoped.

After 20 games, Rendon is hitting .246/.368/.290 with no home runs, 12 RBI, 12 runs and two stolen bases. And Rendon has already missed time this year but rather than it being through injury, it was due to a suspension after he got into it with a fan.

Anthony Rendon and an A's fan got into it last nightpic.twitter.com/V4iSAMDAv5

— Action Network MLB (@ActionNetMLB) March 31, 2023

The one bright note for Rendon has been that although his discipline with opposing fans has lacked, his discipline at the plate remains excellent. His 12.6% K% is in the 94th percentile, 14.9% BB% is in the 85th percentile and 15.8% chase rate is in the 98th percentile.

Unfortunately, Rendon's contact has been far from quality. His 3.4% Barrel% is in the 17th percentile and .369 xSLG is in the 35th percentile. Both are career lows. And both are a large part of why I'm fine with dropping Rendon in shallower leagues.

I know third base is weaker than ever which is why I'm not saying Rendon is a flat-out drop. In deeper leagues, it's entirely dependent on who is available to replace him with as there likely won't be any good options. I do expect Rendon to improve and be a decent fantasy contributor but I'm not willing to bank on that, leaving him very much on the fence as a being a drop candidate.

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