The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 4

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 4 of the 2023 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

The season is still in its infancy but it's clear that there are plenty of players causing fantasy managers headaches and early-season panic is setting in. Hopefully, we can put your mind at ease or help you rip off the band-aid and guide you toward making the best decisions for your fantasy teams.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone, especially this early in the season. As the year progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Carlos Carrasco - SP, New York Mets - 28% rostered

It's been an ugly start to 2023 for the Carrasco. With Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer sidelined, the Mets could really do with the veteran performing to a similar level to what he did last year when Carrasco had a 15-7 W-L record, 3.97 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 152 Ks (152.0 IP). So far, that has not been the case.

I'm writing this during the conclusion of the Mets game on Saturday in which Carrasco had his best outing of the season. But he still allowed two earned runs in 5.0 IP on four hits, one walk and one hit batter, while striking out just three in a no-decision. Against most other teams, I would be more impressed.

That outing has left Carrasco with a 0-2 W-L record, 8.56 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and eight Ks (13.2 IP). I wanted to watch Carrasco's outing to see if his average fastball velocity was anything like it was last year (93.2 MPH) as it had been down considerably in his first two outings. It was not. It was up from the 91.2 MPH it averaged in his first two starts to 91.7 MPH but that's still 1.5 MPH down on last year's mark.

But what I did find interesting is how little he threw his fastball.  In 2022, Carrasco threw his four-seamer 35.1% and was throwing it 37.4% of the time before yesterday. Then on Saturday, in 88 total pitches, Carrasco threw his fastball just ten times (11%) opting to use his sinker 30% of the time. His average sinker velocity (90.6 MPH) is also down from last year (91.9 MPH) but it was an interesting change in approach.

If we look at the breakdown of his first two starts and compare them to yesterday's outing, they make for an interesting comparison.

First start at Milwaukee Brewers, April 03rd

Second start versus Miami Marlins, April 09th

Third start at Oakland Athletics, April 15th

After not using his sinker at all in his first start, using it ~30% of the time in each of his next two outings is noteworthy, as to is going from using your fastball more than a third of the time to barely one-tenth.It will be interesting to see if Carrasco is going to lean on his sinker more and cut down on his fastball usage given its diminished velocity.

This maybe just be something the Mets and Carrasco decide upon as part of their scouting reports for each opponent. Time will tell. But what does seem to be consistent across his three starts is Carrasco isn't the same pitcher he was last year.

Carrasco's 6.50 xFIP and 6.14 SIERA are worrying as is his 12.3% K%. All three are set to be career worsts since his MLB debut in 2009. Carrasco might be able to reinvent himself if his velocity has dropped for good and I wouldn't bet against him being a solid MLB pitcher still. But at 36 years old and in the final year of his contract, it's difficult to think this year will turn out well.

Verdict: Carrasco has been dropped quite significantly from fantasy rosters since the drafts and it's understandable. If he can be at least competent, Carrasco can be considered a streaming option against weaker opponents, and in deeper leagues, he's an option to stick in your lineup when he has two starts. Outside of that, it's hard to justify rostering Carrasco in fantasy.

Clarke Schmidt - SP/RP, New York Yankees - 20% rostered

It's been tough sledding for Schmidt to start the season and his role as a starting pitcher doesn't look like it will last a whole lot longer. Through three starts (10.2 IP), Schmidt has a 0-0 W-L record, 8.44 ERA, 1.97 WHIP and 11 Ks. But it's two splits that stand out as to why I don't believe he sticks in the rotation much longer.

Firstly, let's look at his numbers against left-handed (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH) this year and during his career in the Majors.

Obviously, this year is a small sample, but it's telling that his career splits seem to have been amplified with his numbers against LHH much worse compared to his numbers against RHH. Then comes how he's fared each time through the order this year. Yes, again, it's a small sample, but it can still be quite telling given his transition from reliever to starter.

When looking at these numbers, they scream those of a relief pitcher. And that's what Schmidt had success with last year (2.74 ERA in 46.0 IP). The injuries to the Yankees rotation almost led it to be a necessity for Schmidt to join the rotation to begin this year but with Carlos Rodon and Luis Severino both throwing bullpen sessions and nearing returns, Schmidt's days as a starter might be numbered.

The Yankees have also been suffering from injuries to the bullpen, with Lou Trivino, Tommy Kahnle and Jonathan Loaisiga all on the IL and Scott Effross being out for the year. So it seems to be a 'whatever role is necessary' scenario for Schmidt and the Yankees with his proven ability as a reliever likely to see him revert to the bullpen fairly soon.

Verdict: As long as the Yankees are winning more than they are losing, they'll likely keep Schmidt out there as a starter with so few suitable options available to them. But I suspect at some point in May, the time will come for Schmidt to return to the bullpen and given his numbers, it's probably for the best. He's not shown any value in fantasy as a starter so is only a deeper league streaming option.

Marcell Ozuna - OF/DH, Atlanta Braves - 14% rostered

This one is a little pre-emptive and normally when two-thirds of someone's hits are homers, it's a good thing. But in Ozuna's case, it's not great. Ozuna currently has a .075/.196/.225 slash line with two homers, two RBI, three runs and no stolen bases (12 games). Those of you good at maths will have worked out he has just three hits so far.

The reason this is a little pre-emptive is that although Ozuna has been a near-everyday player lately, that could be coming to an end soon. Ozuna hasn't played the outfield since the opening series, instead DH'ing exclusively when he plays and has hit no higher than seventh in the lineup.

Travis d'Arnaud and Michael Harris II are both set to return from injury in the coming days with d'Arnuad likely to be the DH when he's not catching in place of Sean Murphy. With Harris II in the outfield, the Braves could opt for Sam Hilliard and Eddie Rosario to fill out the lineup as left-handed options. Ozuna could be left on the weak side of a platoon.

And it's not like his early season performances have done enough to justify regular playing time. Ozuna does still possess some pop, as evidenced by two of his three hits clearing the fence and since joining the Braves, he does have 50 homers in 244 games. But with only two stolen bases and a .244 batting average in that time, Ozuna offers little else especially hitting in the bottom third of the lineup.

Verdict: Ozuna is still a deeper league option if you need power but he appears in decline and that's what I suspect will happen with his playing time in the coming weeks. Injuries might lead to more at-bats and he might find some success, but there are too many things that need to go right for Ozuna to have value in anything but deeper leagues.

Hold For Now

Javier Baez - SS, Detroit Tigers - 60% rostered

This is something of a regular theme of the Cut List and something I will keep harping on about, especially in the early going. Entering last weekend, Hunter Renfroe was hitting .148/.258/.148 with no homers, one RBI, three runs and no steals. He was a popular name floating around asking if he should be cut. Of course, I said no. Fast forward to this weekend.

Renfroe is now hitting .283/.387/.528 with three homers, 11 RBI, nine runs and no stolen bases. That is how quickly things can turn around for a hitter at this early stage. Now, I'm not suggesting Báez will hit three homers this week but hitters with some sort of proven track record should be afforded more time.

Báez's first year in Detroit did not go well, hitting .238/.278/.393 with 17 homers, 67 RBI, 64 runs and nine stolen bases. But after hitting .268/.310/.413 in the second half of 2022, there was reason to believe he might be able to bounce back and have a solid 2023 season, like his pre-Detroit self.

The start of this year couldn't have gotten off to a worse start. It's bad enough Báez is hitting .184/.259/.245 with no homers, five RBI, five runs and no stolen bases (14 games). On Thursday, he was moved down to sixth in the Tigers lineup and you'd think getting his first extra-base hit (a double) of the season would be encouraging. Alas, it did not turn out that way.

After barely moving out of the batter's box to admire what he thought would be a home run, he had to turn on the afterburners to reach second base for what was only a double. It could easily have been a triple. On the next play, Akil Baddoo flew out to center field. Báez set off from second base thinking there were two outs. There was only one out leaving him to get doubled off.

Javier Baez was pulled from the game on Thursday night when this base running blunder caused the Tigers to run into a double play.

Manager A.J. Hinch called him into the tunnel and Baez did not return to the game.

🎥 @Sportsnet pic.twitter.com/VhxxrtQwMA

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) April 14, 2023

Báez was promptly removed from the game and although Manager A.J. Hinch stated this was something that had been plaguing the entire team with Báez being the most high-profile offender, it's pretty clear things are not right. He did return to the lineup Friday (going 2-for-3 with two walks) and then went 2-for-5 on Saturday, hitting fourth and third the last two games.

The interesting part of Báez's struggles is he's actually cut down his strike rate (18.2% K%) in the early going, something fantasy managers have been wary of for years. But that hasn't led to better results and if anything, it might be having a detrimental effect on the shortstop. There are reasons I'm not prepared to say drop Báez in all leagues.

Shortstop has been hit with a glut of injuries this week, with Tim Anderson, Corey Seager, Oneil Cruz and even Orlando Arcia all hitting the IL. So you might not have much in the way of decent replacement options. Secondly, sometimes you have to hit rock bottom before you reach the top.

I'm not saying Báez will reach the top of any shortstop rankings and even being a viable option in shallower leagues isn't a given. But knowing what he can do (as recently as 2021) and with everything that's just happened, maybe giving him another week to see if he does turn things around wouldn't be the worst idea.

Anthony Volpe - SS, New York Yankees - 72% rostered

The Yankees had an open audition for the starting shortstop job this Spring and Volpe won it after hitting .309/.415/.618 with three homers, five RBI, 13 runs and five stolen bases (19 games). The Yankees number one prospect and consensus top-10 prospect in baseball was going to be the starting shortstop in the Bronx.

Fantasy managers' excitement hasn't been met as Volpe has struggled somewhat to this point. Through 15 games, Volpe is hitting .186/.314/.326 with one homer, one RBI, five runs and six stolen bases (three of which came in yesterday's game). He hit his first home run on Friday and there have been some other positives, as well as negatives. First, let's get the negatives out of the way.

Volpe has a 31.4% K% and that's coming on the back of a 30.3% K% in 22 games at Triple-A last year. Having just 22 games under his belt at the Triple-A level is also a bit of a negative and the weak contact he's displayed so far is also a downer.

Volpe has a 28.0% HardHit%, which ranks in the 14th percentile and an average exit velocity (85.5 MPH) that ranks in the 11th percentile. His expected stats suggest he's not been unlucky with anything either, as he's sporting a .167 xBA (fourth percentile) and a .264 xwOBA (15th percentile). But as I mentioned, there are positives.

His 15.7% BB% ranks 24th among qualified hitters (195) and is close to the 13.3% BB% he had as a Minor Leaguer so shouldn't come as a surprise. Volpe's 28.1 ft/sec average sprint speed is in the 83rd percentile and has helped him go 6-for-6 on stolen base attempts. Volpe has also hit leadoff twice when DJ LeMahieu has missed time, including when he hit his first home run on Friday.

One thing which may be overlooked in fantasy is his defense. Of the 13 players with at least 120 innings played at shortstop this season, Volpe is one of only four yet to commit an error and he's tied second in Defensive Runs Saved (three) among all shortstops. Although it won't score you anything, it is set to keep Volpe as an everyday player longer than if he was a below-average fielder.

It doesn't matter how highly rated a prospect is, growing pains are part and parcel of the game. At least Volpe has regularly demonstrated what he's known for; good defense, an ability to take a walk and excellent speed. Providing he remains a regular in the Yankees lineup, it's hard to see a shortstop with his upside that'll be available in waivers in your leagues.

Josh Bell - 1B/DH, Cleveland Guardians - 57% rostered

After the first two weeks of the season, things haven't gone too well for Josh Bell. Through 14 games, he has one homer, six RBI, four runs, no steals and a .167/.292/.296 slash line. Bell finally hit his first homer of the season on Friday and has gone 4-for-8 with three doubles over the last two games, so maybe he has turned the corner.

While I don't like to put too much stock in a player's Statcast profile (especially this early), Bell's is pretty ugly looking.

Apart from it being too early to panic, Bell has done this before. In 2021, after 14 games, he was hitting .113/.200/.264. Bell went on to finish the season with a .261/.347/.476 slash line, 27 homers, 88 RBI, 75 runs and no stolen bases. A look at Bell's career numbers by month will show us that March/April sports his worst numbers in batting average (.247), wOBA (.327) and wRC+ (104).

So it's fair to say that generally, Bell gets better as the season progresses. And I know I said Statcast profiles aren't the be-all-and-end-all but a look at Bell's during the previous two seasons should give fantasy managers reason for optimism.

Those struggles to begin the 2021 season came after he was traded from Pittsburgh to Washington. He struggled last year after being traded to San Diego, hitting just .135/.274/.173 in his first 14 games with the Padres. And now he's started slow with another new team. Although we don't like considering intangibles in fantasy, maybe changing teams is something Bell struggles with.

Bell is a career .260/.350/.456 hitter and although 2022 was a bit of a down year, he was excellent in Washington before the trade to the Padres. Moving to Cleveland, his first time in the American League, could certainly be playing its part in Bell's struggles and it's not something that gets considered much in such a numbers-orientated game.

Bell is likely a corner infielder and only someone's primary first baseman in deep leagues, but I still expect him to turn things around and put together a productive season. In shallow leagues, there could be better options on waivers but in most leagues, he's not someone I'm looking to dump just yet.

On the Hot Seat

Chris Sale - SP, Boston Red Sox - 82% rostered

Sale came into the 2023 season having totaled just 48.1 IP since 2019. Tommy John Surgery accounted for 2020 and most of 2021 but a myriad of bad luck limited Sale to just two outings last year. A rib injury, a finger injury and a wrist injury, all from unfortunate incidents suggested Sale had broken a few mirrors in 2022. Although if he had, he'd probably land on the IL due to a lacerated hand.

And I'm not ready to write off a former ace after three starts, even with his recent injury issues and at age-34. That's not to say I haven't been worried about his start to the season. After three appearances (12.0 IP), Sale has a 1-1 W-L record, 11.25 ERA, 2.08 WHIP and 19 Ks.

On the plus side, Sale has a 29.7% K% but that has also come with a 10.9% BB%. The key indicator for me as to why I'm not writing him off is despite the poor results, Sale has a 3.86 xFIP and 3.94 SIERA. Not 'ace-like' numbers but still promising especially given the lack of innings Sale has had in the three preceding years.

Another reason I'm not ready to bail on Sale is he's been incredibly unlucky in the home run department. He's already given up five homers and has a 41.7% HR/FB%, when his career mark is 12.2%. But like I say, I do still have a bit of a concern.

Even ignoring the walks, his fastball hasn't looked sharp for some time and has a .600 AVG, 1.300 SLG and .781 wOBA against it this year. And that is why I believe Sale is throwing it less and using his sinker more than he has since 2015. It's early doors, but below shows Sale's pitch usage over the years.

The increase in his sinker usage may also be down to Sale's struggles to command his fastball. That has been evident at the start of the season and is the main factor in his elevated walk rate. Below shows the location of Sale's four-seam fastball and sinker in his first three starts.

Sale can still have plenty of success as long as his slider remains elite. With a .188 AVG, .295 wOBA and 40.0% Whiff%, Sale's slider certainly has been elite in the early going. The 11.5 inches of horizontal movement the slider has averaged so far is lower than previous years but similar to 2016 (11.4 inches) when it had a .183 AVG, .232 wOBA and 35.6% Whiff%.

It's easy to be scared away from Sale given his age and recent injury problems but I wouldn't be too concerned about his numbers as a look under the hood suggests he's been a victim of bad luck. If you drafted him, I'd still be holding on to Sale. I'm not convinced enough to suggest he's a buy-low candidate but Sale is still worthwhile rostering.

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Last week, the Reddit thread finished up with over 250 comments and dozens of names being requested (thanks to everyone who contributed). We can't cover everyone and normally only include three players in this section but due to demand, I'm covering five of the most popular names here.

Lucas Giolito - SP, Chicago White Sox - 89% rostered

Giolito is a poster boy for how one bad outing can skew your stats at this stage of the season. After three starts, he has a 0-1 W-L record, 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 16 Ks (15.0 IP). Seven of the ten earned runs Giolito has allowed came in his second start against the Pirates while his other two starts have combined for a 2.45 ERA.

His 22.2% K% is down on the 29.2% K% he compiled in the four years prior to this season but Giolito's 4.2% BB% is on course to be a career-low. And Giolito has been something of a workhorse in recent times, starting at least 29 games in four of the last five seasons with the only exception being the 12 he started in the 60-game 2020 season.

Yes, allowing seven runs in four innings against the Pirates isn't ideal but there's no reason to be cutting Giolito based on just one outing. Especially when you consider his average fastball (93.3 MPH) is up 0.7 MPH from last year and nearer his 2021 mark (93.8 MPH) when Giolito had a 3.53 ERA.

Anthony Santander - OF, Baltimore Orioles - 83% rostered

It's been a slow start for Santander and a back issue saw him miss time earlier this week. But he returned to the Orioles lineup on Friday and looks to improve on his .189/.254/.321 slash line, with one home run, five RBI, three runs and no steals. His 33.0% K% does stand out like a sore thumb but hitting his first homer of the season on Saturday should at least be a sign the back isn't a problem.

Before last year, Santander hadn't played more than 110 games in a year but he's been able to display his power in limited playing time before last year's 33 home run season. Between 2019 - 2022, of all outfielders (53) with at least 1,500 plate appearances, Santander ranked 22nd in SLG (.467) and tied-16th in ISO (.219), so his power has been consistently solid.

The above graphic shows Santander's 2022 home runs overlayed onto Orioles Park so as a switch hitter, his home left field isn't overly harmful. He's still hitting the ball hard as evidenced by his 92.4 MPH average exit velocity (83rd percentile) and 56.7% HardHit% (94th percentile).

As long as we don't get recurrences of the back issue and it's not something that will linger throughout the season, I'm willing to wait out this early-season slump and expect the power numbers to emerge soon. Yesterday's homer might even have opened the floodgates for Santander to go on a tear in the coming days.

Miles Mikolas - SP, St Louis Cardinals - 67% rostered

After a stellar 2022 season, Mikolas has gotten off to a slow start in 2023. After three starts (14.1 IP), he has a 0-1 W-L record, 10.05 ERA, 2.23 WHIP and 15 Ks. The big concern for fantasy managers is unlike Giolito, Mikolas has had three bad outings, allowing at least five earned runs in all of his starts.

He has faced Toronto and Atlanta, both of whom rank in the top-6 for runs scored with the other start coming at Coors Field so not the easiest of starts to his season. And his underlying stats offer hope that his results have been down to bad luck as he's sporting a 3.96 xFIP and 4.22 SIERA.

Mikolas also has a 19.7% K%, above his career 18.1% MLB career mark and he is set to face the Pirates today before likely facing the Mariners next week. I'm not considering dropping Mikolas yet in anything but the shallowest leagues but will at least see how he fares against the 24th-ranked and 11th-ranked offenses in runs scored before deciding if Mikolas deserves to be banished to waivers.

Ezequiel Tovar - SS, Colorado Rockies - 49% rostered

Tovar has been on most top-10 shortstop prospect lists and fantasy managers had high hopes that the Rockies youngster could provide fantasy value in his rookie year. So far, he has not. It's important to remember that Tovar was regarded first and foremost as an elite defensive shortstop, with a solid bat that should develop.

His scouting report, based on the 20-80 grading where 50 is average, Tovar graded out at 55 for hitting, 45 for power and 50 for speed. His fielding was graded as 70 (all grades according to MLB Pipeline). Tovar has certainly managed to flash his defensive capabilities already.

Ezequiel Tovar flashing that 70-grade defense for the @Rockies. pic.twitter.com/BOHjUlO9GB

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 12, 2023

The hope for fantasy managers was hitting at Coors Field will make Tovar a serviceable middle infielder. And that has been true in the early goings. Tovar is hitting .240/.269/.400 at home (26 plate appearances) and .130/.231/.130 on the road (26 plate appearances). But his home numbers don't really mitigate what he's been doing on the road.

The majority of Tovar's projections had him hitting 10-12 homers, with 10-12 stolen bases and a .260-.275 batting average which made him a deeper league option only. The recent shortstop injuries likely make Tovar a more viable option than a week ago but he's still not someone I'd likely be rostering in shallower leagues. Dynasty and deeper leagues, I'd still be holding.

Cal Quantrill - SP, Cleveland Guardians - 40% rostered

Given Quantrill had a 15-5 W-L record, 3.38 ERA and 1.21 WHIP last year (186.1 IP), it might come as a surprise that he wasn't rostered in many more leagues. But his underlying numbers (4.39 xFIP and 4.49 SIERA) coupled with a lowly 16.6% K% (11th percentile) scared people away in drafts and the early results this season suggest they were wise to do so.

A lack of strikeouts is always going to limit Quantrill's fantasy value but even his 12.0% K% (seventh percentile) this year is a disappointment. But not as disappointing as his 5.74 ERA and 1.66 WHIP (15.2 IP). Quantrill's 5.81 xFIP and 5.55 SIERA tell us he just hasn't pitched well so far.

In truth, Quantrill's lack of strikeouts made him a deeper league option only or a streamer if you're chasing wins. Given Quantrill completed at least five innings in 29 of his 32 starts last year and two of his three starts this year, that still remains the case but that's about all Quantrill is in fantasy. There will more than likely be better options in most shallower leagues.

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