The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 22

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 22 of the 2023 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 22. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding onto...for now.

The season chugs on and we're entering the final week or two for many head-to-head leagues. Roto leagues are in a crucial period where bold decision-making is necessary to make a push for glory. Those decisions can mean dropping someone you wouldn't have dreamt of dumping at the start of the season. Sometimes, the bravest decision is holding onto a struggling star with a turnaround in performance looming.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the year continues to progress, there will be different reasons and stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Luis Arraez - 2B, Miami Marlins - 93% rostered

Possibly my most controversial pick of the year. I'm not saying the batting champion in waiting is a certain drop. But while Luis Arraez has been a batting-average star, what else is he offering you?

On the year, Arraez has five homers, 58 RBI, 52 runs, and one stolen base with a .357/.401/.460 slash line. I'm not denigrating the batting average as a stat. Even in today's sabermetric society, batting average does still hold value. But in standard fantasy leagues, Arraez is only providing value in one category.

I'm not even too bothered that Arraez is only hitting .230/.240/.378 in August. It's the lack of production that comes with his batting average that has been a problem. Below shows where Arraez ranks among all hitters in the counting stats.

I've included OBP, SLG, and OPS as more and more leagues use them instead of or as well as batting average. For those four stats, I've only ranked Arraez among qualified hitters. It's still the same story with Arraez ranking well.

For context on how little Arraez helps with the counting stats, he is tied with Nelson Cruz for homers and stolen bases. Cruz had 152 plate appearances this year before the Padres released him on July 10. He hasn't played since.

At this stage of the season, Arraez's batting average is going to be less and less valuable as the weeks move on. Hitting .350 for a month won't have as great an impact on your overall batting average. That leaves him much less valuable as a fantasy option, especially while he's hitting sub-.250.

It's not all Arraez's fault, of course. The addition of Jake Burger has helped but the Marlins still rank tied-24th in runs scored (513) this year. Since July 1, the Marlins rank 23rd (175). Since August 1, they rank tied-18th (75).

I will caveat this by saying in head-to-head leagues, you don't want to drop Arraez. If you're in the playoffs, Arraez can hit .350 over a one-week or two-week period. That could easily help win you that category.

Verdict: This is very much league and team dependent. But in standard roto leagues, unless you're able to make up or lose considerable ground in batting average, Arraez isn't going to offer much help. If you need help with the counting stats like homers and steals, dropping Arraez for someone like Zack Gelof makes sense.

Jesus Luzardo - SP, Miami Marlins - 89% rostered

I don't think it's any secret that Jesus Luzardo has been pretty dreadful lately. It's certainly no secret that he's in unchartered waters when it comes to his workload this year. Last year's 100.1 IP was the most Luzardo had thrown since 2018 (109.1 IP). He's now up to 137.1 IP this year.

Luzardo has an 8-8 W-L record, 4.13 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 160 Ks (25 starts). After 18 starts, Luzardo had a 3.32 ERA (103.0 IP). His last four starts have totaled 17.0 IP and Luzardo has a 10.59 ERA.

Before Wednesday's start against the Astros (five earned runs in 3.2 IP), there were concerns Luzardo is struggling with fatigue. Fantasy managers were certainly questioning it.

Wednesday's start seemed to reinforce that theory. If we look at Luzardo's underlying numbers as well, we can see regression has taken effect. The below table shows some of Luzardo's numbers in his first 18 starts (103.0 IP) and his last seven starts (34.1 IP).

Luzardo's ERA in his last seven starts does seem a bit unlucky given his xFIP and SIERA. If we narrow it down more to his last four starts, Luzardo has a 5.77 xFIP and 5.27 SIERA. In Wednesday's start, Luzardo had the highest xFIP (7.66) and SIERA (6.46) of any game this season.

There are no concerns about Luzardo having an injury. His average fastball velocity of 96.8 mph over his last four starts matches his season average. The fastball has been considerably less effective, however.

His fastball had a 6.1 wFB (Runs Above Average) in his first 18 starts. Over his last five starts, Luzardo has a -5.1 wFB, with only one start posting a positive number. His slider (-4.7 wSL) and changeup (-2.7 wCH) have also posted negative marks over his last five starts.

Verdict: Luzardo has been great this year. But recent outings and the fact he's already topped a career-high in innings by 28.0 IP strongly hints that he's hit a wall. It remains to be seen if the Marlins continue starting Luzardo. Even if they do, fantasy managers won't. There's not long enough for Luzardo to regain trust, leaving him as a drop candidate in most redraft leagues.

Tony Gonsolin - SP, Los Angeles Dodgers - 76% rostered

Regular readers may know that the names for the Cut List are collated earlier in the week. They are put into each section and unless something dramatic happens, they will seldom be moved. Even before Friday's shellacking, Tony Gonsolin was in the Worth Dropping and Replacing section.

More on Friday night in a bit. This year as a whole, Gonsolin has an 8-5 W-L record, 4.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 82 Ks (103.0 IP). Even at this late stage of the season, Gonsolin's ERA went up by 0.74 after Friday's performance.

As mentioned, it wasn't just Friday that has me advocating dropping Gonsolin. He had a 1.93 ERA after nine starts and a 3.72 ERA after 14 starts. Things have gradually been getting worse and a look at his numbers makes it clear why.

Despite the sub-2.00 ERA in his first nine starts, Gonsolin had a 5.10 xFIP and 4.99 SIERA. After 14 starts, he had a 5.02 xFIP and 4.92 SIERA. His ERA jumped up by nearly two runs in five starts despite his xFIP and SIERA not changing much at all.

As of now, Gonsolin has a 5.22 xFIP and 5.02 SIERA. His underlying numbers have barely altered, yet Gonsolin's ERA has been ballooning. That tells us he's been lucky for much of the season and has just experienced natural regression.

If we break down Gonsolin's arsenal, it doesn't provide any positives. All four of his pitches have worse expected numbers against them than his actual numbers. Gonsolin's splitter is his best pitch, with a 118 Stuff+ rating and .234 xBA, .364 xSLG, and .283 xwOBA against it.

Gonsolin's slider is his second-most-thrown pitch (27.5%). Unless that jumps up to ~50%, I don't foresee a change in Gonsolin's results. That's not to say Gonsolin hasn't had some good outings in recent weeks.

In his last seven starts, Gonsolin has limited the opposition to one run over five or more innings on three occasions. The issue is they were against the Mets, Athletics, and Rockies (at home). All three teams rank in the bottom 10 for runs scored since July 1.

As is the way sometimes, a couple of hours after writing all of this, we got news of Gonsolin going on the IL. The elbow issue has been going on for weeks, which would explain his struggles. Dave Roberts seems to believe Gonsolin is done for the year, too.

Verdict: I was fine dumping Gonsolin before Friday. He then got shelled and placed on the IL, likely ending his season. Gonsolin was droppable already and is now a definite drop in all formats.

Hold For Now

Brandon Nimmo - OF, New York Mets - 81% rostered

Brandon Nimmo is just a good hitter. A professional hitter. A solid MLB producer. And one of the few Mets offseason signings that have done something constructive this year. Granted, the eight-year, $162M contract may not age well. But Nimmo is still having a productive year.

In 115 games, Nimmo has 18 homers, 51 RBI, 69 runs, and three stolen bases while hitting .268/.366/.449. The 18 homers are a career-high, he's 13 RBI shy of tying a single-season high and his slash line isn't too different from his career .268/.381/.441 line.

His Statcast Profile is also indicative of Nimmo as a hitter. Good, definitely above average, but nothing overly exciting. And given how the Mets season has gone, it's understandable some fantasy managers have cut ties with some of their players.

Nimmo currently ranks 24th among outfielders, reiterating his solid production profile. He's been performing well recently, too. Since August 1, Nimmo is hitting .359/.460/.585. If we go back to July 21 (30 days), Nimmo is hitting .296/.388/.477.

The problem has been the counting stats. That can largely be put down to the Mets' offense. Prior to this week's series with the Cardinals, the Mets had scored 60 runs in 17 August games (3.53 runs per game). They've scored 24 runs in the first three games of this series so far.

That means 28.5% of their runs scored this month have come in the last three games. Nimmo has scored eight of those runs, despite hitting leadoff in all 15 games he's started. That's 9.52% of the Mets' runs in August.

A total of 93 players have scored more runs than the Mets' leadoff hitter in August. A total of 214 players have more RBI than Nimmo in August. The fact Nimmo has three homers this month and only four RBI is quite telling.

Nimmo's personal performance has been good. While I don't foresee the Mets improving much in the coming weeks, Nimmo should still put up solid numbers. He's the kind of 'start and forget' player you just put in your lineup and don't worry about. I like having a couple of those types in my outfield.

Bailey Ober - SP, Minnesota Twins - 76% rostered

After including Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan a fortnight ago, you'd be forgiven for thinking the Twins rotation is in disarray. While that's not strictly true, there has been some regression of late. Now it's Bailey Ober's turn to be put under the spotlight.

On the year, Ober has a 6-6 W-L record, 3.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 113 Ks (113.2 IP). Very impressive numbers for sure. Ober has a 6.63 ERA from his last four starts and has failed to complete more than five innings in any of them.

Much of the frustration from Ober's fantasy managers has been who he's faced lately. That elevated ERA is despite facing the Royals and the Tigers (twice). His next start is scheduled to be against the Brewers, so another decent matchup for him (if he can take advantage this time).

It's not been all bad from Ober lately. His last four starts have had a 4.03 xFIP, 3.75 SIERA, and .458 BABIP. His ERA seems to be more 'small sample bad luck' than anything. He's also been tallying the strikeouts with 23 Ks in the 19.0 IP from his last four starts.

Further evidence of his recent ERA being down to bad luck can be seen if we look at Ober's expected batting average against his fastball. In July, Ober's four-seamer had a .279 AVG against it and a .181 xBA. In August, it has a .294 AVG and .231 xBA against it.

You may be wondering why I'm including Ober given he's just been unlucky and has a good matchup coming up. At this stage of the season, it's important to look a bit further ahead. And that's when things get dicey.

After the Brewers, Ober is lined up to face the Rangers in consecutive outings. Since July 1, the Rangers' offense's 121 wRC+ ranks tied for fourth. Since August 1, they have a 127 wRC+, which also ranks fourth. He's far from a definite start in both games.

Following that, Ober is set to make four or five more starts. The Twins currently hold a 4.5-game lead over the Guardians in the AL Central. If they hold onto that, Ober's final start or two might be abbreviated as well.

We're also into the unknown with Ober's innings count this year. He's up to 131.1 IP on the year. Last year, he totaled 72.2 IP, and in 2021, 108.1 IP. That was his career-high and the Twins may look to keep things in check down the stretch.

Although he's not completed more than 5.0 IP in his last four starts, Ober has averaged 93.5 pitches in those starts. It doesn't seem like the Twins are being overly protective of him.

Ober's not done anything to warrant being dropped but his upcoming schedule isn't ideal. If you aren't going to start him against the Rangers, then it does beg the question "What are you holding him for?". I would still hold him and bench him if possible.

If his outing against the Brewers doesn't go well, then we may have to begin questioning if it's worth holding onto Ober for the remainder of this year. In dynasty leagues, I'm 100% keeping Ober rostered.

Brayan Bello - SP, Boston Red Sox - 55% rostered

In the same way that Gonsolin was already on the drop list prior to Friday's start, Brayan Bello was someone I was holding. Gonsolin's outing solidified that status and so did Bello's. He held the Yankees to one run over 6.0 IP. Admittedly, that's one of the easiest matchups you can have, but it was impressive nonetheless.

Bello has now made 21 starts and is sporting a 9-7 W-L record, 3.70 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 100 Ks (119.1 IP). Bello is similar to Gonsolin, with a low number of strikeouts (19.9 K%), but has better numbers and is a better version of Gonsolin.

He currently has a 3.95 xFIP and 4.06 SIERA, so his ERA is about what you would expect. Maybe it does creep up a bit in the coming weeks but shouldn't be enough to cause alarm.

Bello's last five starts have tallied a 3.99 ERA, 3.75 xFIP, and 3.95 SIERA. He's been pretty consistent lately, which is impressive since the first of this five-game spell was against the Braves.

Frustratingly, many fantasy managers wouldn't have started Bello against the Braves as it came on the back of allowing six earned runs against the Athletics. And the start against the Braves saw Bello allow three runs in 6.0 IP with just four strikeouts and getting a no-decision. So it's not like much was missed.

There's nothing standout about Bello. He's been a consistent and stable starting pitcher. Those of you who are regular readers will know that I put some value on consistency. If you're looking to swap out strugglers all the time and tinkering with your team, it can become laborious.

If we look at Bello's cumulative ERA and xFIP this season, you will see what I mean about consistency. He had a rough start to his year, but Bello has basically been at the same level all year. His ERA took some time to catch up but since it has, he's been good.

There is a caveat with Bello. His next two starts are lined up to be against the Astros, which isn't ideal. Since July 1, the Astros rank fourth in runs scored (217). Following that, Bello is scheduled to face the Royals and that isn't ideal either.

The Royals' 99 runs scored are the fifth-most of any team in August. Bello held the Royals to one run over 6.2 IP on August 7, so you still should be confident starting him in that one. It's just the next two starts that give pause for thought.

Even if you don't start Bello against the Astros, I'd still be holding him as the results have been solid and the underlying numbers back that up. I'd rank Bello ~60th among starting pitchers over the rest of the year, so he's not a definite hold in shallower leagues.

But I'm quietly confident he can continue his solid year until the end of the season.

On the Hot Seat

Matt Chapman - 3B, Toronto Blue Jays - 86% rostered

After a prolific start, fantasy managers' patience has been wearing thin with Matt Chapman. On the year, Chapman is hitting .251/.342/.441 with 15 homers, 49 RBI, 60 runs, and three stolen bases (118 games).

We're going to look at a lot of graphics for Chapman to best explain what's happened. If we break down Chapman's season per month, you can see why fantasy managers are so frustrated with him.

April was immense and July was very good. Chapman did miss time this week with a finger issue but he returned to the lineup on Friday and played again yesterday. He seems to have avoided any possible IL stint.

Outside of those two months, everything else has been pretty dreadful. The peaks have been very high while the valleys have been very low. After hitting 27 homers in each of the last two seasons, Chapman is set to fall well short of that total.

Chapman's quality of contact is some of the best in baseball. His 52 barrels are already more than he had in the last two seasons and the fourth-most in the majors this year. Shout out to Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) for putting me on this.

His Statcast profile looks like one belonging to an MVP candidate. Instead, it's Chapman, the player who ranks 24th among third basemen and 212th overall in fantasy this year.

Mike Kurland mentioned whether or not Chapman can truly be considered unlucky as a lot of his barreled hits are to straightaway or opposite field. That will limit his home run production, which is what we've seen this year.

If we look at Chapman's hits spray chart, we can see how a lot of his power is to the opposite field. Rogers Centre is a pretty neutral field for hitters, so there isn't any advantage for Chapman spraying the ball around to all parts of the field.

To give you an idea of how varied Chapman's results would be depending on where he hits, we can look at his expected home run (xHR) total per ballpark. If Chapman just played in Kansas City, he'd have nine homers. If Chapman only played in Cincinnati, he'd have 28 homers.

The interesting thing is that Chapman has done this before and had success. The below table compares some of Chapman's numbers over the last three seasons.

As mentioned earlier, Chapman hit 27 homers in 2021 and 2022. In 2021, Chapman didn't hit the ball as hard but hit a lot more fly balls and hit a similar number of balls to straightaway and opposite field.

In 2022, Chapman hit the ball harder with fewer fly balls. But he did pull the ball more. In 2o23, Chapman has pretty much combined the worst elements of his previous two seasons. Rather than hitting the ball this hard with more fly balls and pulling it more, he's hitting fewer fly balls and pulling it less.

There's no reason why Chapman couldn't put together another special few weeks as he did in April. But it's not likely. A repeat of his July is more likely and would certainly help fantasy managers.

That's not to say he'll do that, of course. The reality is Chapman hasn't produced much fantasy value this year, especially against his ADP (~153). If you've been rostering him this long, it's unlikely you'll have someone better on waivers to replace him with.

If you have Chapman as a corner infielder, you have more potential options on waivers to replace him with. Out of the 23 third basemen who rank higher than Chapman this year, only one is less than 50% rostered. And only six are less than 75% rostered.

Although you're not stuck having to roster Chapman, finding someone better to replace him with isn't easy. Given we know what Chapman can do, especially over a short period, dropping him is a big risk that many fantasy managers won't want to take.

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll ensure to cover three requests each week.

Dansby Swanson - SS, Chicago Cubs - 95% rostered

Dansby Swanson's inclusion is a circumstance of his struggles of late, with a disappointing batting average in recent weeks. In August, Swanson is hitting .175/.254/.491. Remarkably, his batting average this month is the lowest of the year, yet his slugging percentage is the second-highest.

To understand how productive Swanson has been, over the last 30 days he has a .225 batting average. Yet, he ranks 46th overall in fantasy and 31st among hitters. Of the 30 hitters ranked above Swanson, no one has a lower batting average during this period.

That's down to the fact Swanson has not only been hitting for power (eight homers since returning from the IL on July 22), but the Cubs offense excelling. Since July 22, Swanson also has 24 RBI and 16 runs despite almost exclusively hitting fifth or sixth in the lineup.

Only the Braves (175) and Rays (161) have scored more runs than the Cubs (155) since Swanson's return from injury. Swanson has benefited and over the last 30 days among shortstops, he ranks tied-first in home runs, second in RBI, and tied-10th in runs.

On the season, Swanson has 18 homers, 60 RBI, 57 runs, and four stolen bases with a .251/.335/.437 slash line (108 games). He's currently ranked 17th among shortstops and 155th overall. That's certainly been rosterable in all fantasy formats.

In the individual categories, Swanson ranks 10th in homers, tied-seventh in RBI, and tied-19th in runs. He's not provided much in the way of speed and of the 25 top-ranked shortstops, his batting average is 18th. So Swanson has only been a two-category contributor but he doesn't harm you in the other categories.

I know that's a lot of numbers thrown at you. But none of them would lead me to suggest I'd be looking at Swanson being a drop in the large majority of leagues. That's as long as the Cubs continue to roll and Swanson is hitting for power.

He's set to fall short of providing value on his ADP (~78). He's still been good enough to roster, though. Last weekend, Swanson became the first Cub ever to homer in three different countries in one year. While you don't get any fantasy benefit from that, it's still a cool achievement.

Kutter Crawford - SP/RP, Boston Red Sox - 26% rostered

Like teammate Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford has had a solid season so far. After an early season move to the bullpen, he returned to the starting rotation in June and has stayed there since. Yesterday was his 16th start of the year along with eight relief appearances.

On the year, Crawford has a 6-6 W-L record, 3.66 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 94 Ks (96.0 IP). If we look at Crawford's numbers depending on his role, we can see he's been considerably better out of the bullpen.

Although Crawford has a much better ERA as a reliever, we can see there's an element of luck involved. It's a small sample but Crawford has a markedly different BABIP between the two roles and a new identical xFIP.

As solid as Crawford has been, his fantasy value is capped. Even as a starter, the Red Sox have been limiting his workload lately. He's only topped 90 pitches in an outing once since returning to the starting rotation. That was on June 25. His four starts in August have seen Crawford total between 73-82 pitches.

As a result, Crawford isn't going deep enough in games to secure wins. He's picked up three wins from his last eight starts despite putting up a 3.25 ERA in that time. Only four of those starts saw Crawford complete the five innings.

In leagues counting quality starts, Crawford's value takes a bigger hit, registering just two in his last eight starts. Yesterday's start was his best since mid-June. Aaron Judge's home run was the only hit Crawford allowed in six innings.

Like Bello, Crawford is set to face the Astros in back-to-back starts next. That's followed by a start against the Rays, so he has one of the most difficult upcoming schedules. That further diminishes Crawford's fantasy value moving forward.

Crawford has been good but lacks any real fantasy value except in deeper leagues. He can be used as a streaming option against weaker opposition as well. But it remains to be seen when that will be. Crawford is still someone I'm holding in dynasty leagues.

Mickey Moniak - OF, Los Angeles Angels - 25% rostered

I hate to say it, but it feels like the Mickey Moniak experience is over. His numbers this year are good, with 12 homers, 39 RBI, 30 runs, and six stolen bases in 70 games. He's got a solid .274/.304/.490 slash line to go with it.

Following his mid-May call-up, Moniak got off to a red-hot start in the majors. Moniak hit his 11th homer of the season in just his 43rd game. At that point, he had 32 RBI, 24 runs, and a .336/.369/.645 slash line.

No one expected him to maintain that pace but Moniak has fallen off the proverbial cliff. Since July 21, he's hit .186/.210/.275 with one homer, six RBI, six runs, and three steals (26 games). He ranks as the 769th overall player over the last 30 days.

In August, Moniak is hitting .138/.153/.224, so things are getting worse. Of course, there is a world in which Moniak repeats his earlier season form. But if we look at some of his numbers, that's highly unlikely.

Moniak clearly has a significant problem with plate discipline. A 35.2% K% and 3.0% BB% aren't going to help you find long-term success. Moniak's quality of contact isn't exactly eye-popping either.

His expected stats suggest he was just very fortunate earlier in the season. Moniak has a .246 xBA, .460 xSLG, and .314 xwOBA (.337 wOBA). They aren't too far apart from his actual numbers, but still enough to be noticeable.

The Angels moved Moniak back atop the order last Sunday. It appeared to be an attempt to kick-start their season again. The experiment soon ended when the Angels called up their 2023 first-round draft pick Nolan Schanuel. Schanuel has led off since his arrival with Moniak hitting sixth when he does start.

Mike Trout doesn't seem close to a return, which would potentially move Moniak to a fourth outfielder role. So at least he's likely to keep playing regularly. And I do expect him to put up better numbers than what he has recently.

However, he doesn't appear to be anything more than a deeper league, fifth outfielder type. He's still only 25 years old and has had success in the minors. So in dynasty, I'd still be looking at holding onto Moniak. Just not overly optimistically.

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