The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 21

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 21 of the 2023 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 21. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding onto...for now.

We're closing in on the season's finishing line but there is still plenty of time to turn your season around, make a playoff push, and chase down first place. There's also plenty of time to throw away any lead you have built up and the best way to avoid doing that is not dropping a player for the wrong reasons or at the wrong time.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the year continues to progress, there will be different reasons and stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Josh Jung - 3B, Texas Rangers - 81% rostered

Josh Jung was well on the way to having a huge breakout year before suffering a fractured finger last Sunday, which may have ended his regular season. He underwent surgery earlier this week and the expectation is Jung will miss six weeks.

Obviously, it's still too early to know for sure but six weeks would be September 19. That will leave less than two weeks of the regular season. If he does make his return on September 19, that would leave 12 games for Jung to feature in.

It'd be unlikely he plays in all 12 games coming back from the injury and with the playoffs in mind. We might not even see double-digit starts from Jung over the remainder of the year.

If Jung does return before the regular season finale on October 1, he'll be looking to improve on his 22 homers, 67 RBI, 70 runs, and one stolen base to go with his .274/.323/.489 slash line. That's currently enough to see Jung rank as a top-10 third baseman.

If you have a spare IL spot, then you can simply put Jung on there and hope he can return maybe even a bit sooner than expected. Although the Rangers would likely avoid rushing him back providing they're secure in a playoff spot.

In dynasty leagues, Jung is an obvious hold as he's proved his capabilities as an everyday player. I see no reason why Jung wouldn't enter 2024 as a top-10 third baseman in drafts.

Verdict: In redraft leagues, without the luxury of having a spare IL spot, I'd be fine dropping Jung. I'm not convinced we see him return before the playoffs. Even if he does, the handful of games Jung is likely to play in might not be worthwhile rostering him for. 

Carlos Rodon - SP, New York Yankees - 77% rostered

Carlos Rodon's first season in pinstripes couldn't have gone much worse so far. He's made just six starts and has a 1-4 W-L record, 7.33 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and 25 Ks (27.0 IP). He started the year on the IL and didn't debut until July due to arm and back issues. Now, a hamstring issue has sent him back on the IL.

The hope is Rodon won't miss much time and could return soon after first eligible, just over a week's time. Rodon certainly seemed optimistic he'll be back soon after leaving last Sunday's game.

Even if that is the case, his numbers haven't justified fantasy managers continuing to roster Rodon. We're only looking at a small sample due to his injuries but Rodon has a 6.01 xFIP and 5.65 SIERA with a .214 BABIP. The biggest struggle Rodon has had is with control as we can see with his 14.8% BB%.

Last year's 178.0 IP was a career-high for Rodon. After making just 33 starts in the three seasons prior to 2022, Rodon hasn't exactly been a picture of health. I believe lingering issues may be contributing to his struggles when he does pitch this year.

The back issue Rodon experienced especially raises a red flag as they can linger longer than most and would help explain Rodon's control issues. Whatever the problem with Rodon, it's highly unlikely it'll magically resolve itself in the next fortnight and we see the 2022 version of the pitcher when he returns.

Verdict: I don't tend to drop players who are on the IL. If you can accommodate him there, then do so. But I'd be very reluctant to start him when he first returns and you're likely wanting to give him a couple of starts before having any trust with him. By then, it's September, so hoping for a return to form for the sake of a few starts doesn't really suggest Rodon is still worth rostering in anything but deeper leagues.

Tyler Wells - SP, Baltimore Orioles - 35% rostered

Tyler Wells has been something of a revelation this year and part of why the Orioles lead the AL East. In 21 appearances (20 starts), Wells has a 7-6 W-L record, 3.80 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 111 Ks (113.2 IP).

Wells struggled in his last three starts, allowing 11 runs on 10 hits and nine walks (9.0 IP). Following his start on July 29, Wells was demoted to Double-A in what was seen as a move to help limit his innings and give him a breather after recent struggles.

Fantasy managers have been wondering when Wells will return to the majors and what his role will be. I'm afraid to say, the outlook doesn't seem to favor Wells being of fantasy use.

Wells started for Bowie yesterday and that could've lined up a return to Baltimore next weekend. Cole Irvin started for Baltimore yesterday (throwing five shutout innings) and the thought of Wells taking his place in the rotation sure seems possible with the Orioles moving to a six-man rotation.

However, there are multiple reasons why this is far from a given. The first is Wells' innings limit. Whilst we've not heard anything from the Orioles about that, it would make sense to keep things in check a bit.

Yes, Wells is 28 years old, so not a youngster they're looking to protect for the long term. But Wells' career-high 119.1 IP came in 2018 and was followed by Tommy John Surgery in 2019. He missed that entire year and then didn't pitch in 2020 due to the minor league season being canceled.

In 2021, Wells totaled 57.0 IP as a reliever and then reached 106.0 IP last year as a starter. He's already topped 120.0 IP now and there's no doubt the Orioles will want Wells to pitch in the postseason. Transitioning to the bullpen would make sense to achieve both things.

We also have to factor in that John Means is rehabbing in Double-A and could make a return at some point. Where he fits into things remains to be seen but there are certainly more pitchers than rotation spots right now.

Even if Wells returns next weekend to start for the Orioles, the fact they're going with a six-man rotation means that Wells will have a maximum of seven starts left this year. That's assuming he returns next week, rejoins the rotation, and stays there.

Wells is also sporting a 4.70 xFIP and 4.23 SIERA, so his recent outings could be a case of natural regression (which has been something of a theme here lately). Even if he does return soon as a starter, we may need to temper expectations.

Verdict: There are too many things that need to fall into place for Wells to be a useful fantasy option. If you have minor league spots and kept Wells on there, continuing to do so is fine. I'd still be holding Wells in dynasty leagues too but in the large majority of redraft leagues, I'd be looking for someone to help in the immediate future.

Hold For Now

Xander Bogaerts - SS, San Diego Padres - 95% rostered

Fantasy managers might be somewhat surprised that Xander Bogaerts is still so heavily rostered given how many have been frustrated by him. It's certainly fair to say the first season of his 11-year contract hasn't gone according to plan.

In 109 games, Bogaerts has 12 homers, 40 RBI, 53 runs, and 13 stolen bases while hitting .271/.344/.402. If you didn't know who the numbers belonged to, you'd say it's not been a bad year. For Bogaerts, his slash line is the worst in all three categories since 2014, when he was 21 years old.

Bogaerts is also set to record the lowest RBI and runs totals since 2014 (excluding the shortened 2020 season). That's left him ranked 18th among shortstops this season but he is 148th overall, which is a testament to the depth at the position.

What has really frustrated fantasy managers has been how much Bogaerts cooled off after such a good start. In April, he hit .308/.400/.514 with six homers, 13 RBI, 21 runs, and one stolen base. A disproportionate amount of his fantasy stats came in the first month of the year.

May saw Bogaerts come back down to earth with a bump as he hit .200/.283/.263. Since then, he's actually been one of the most consistent hitters as we can see by his rolling cumulative slash line.

I'm not going to pretend Bogaerts will still provide value on his ADP (~87) this year and holding on to him is not a definitive answer. At this stage of the season, Bogaerts is a good representation of many other players.

Bogaerts is very much case-dependent as to whether or not you still roster him. By that, I mean it really boils down to whether or not you need what he provides. He's hitting for a good average (.299 average since July 1), providing a decent number of runs (nine in the last four weeks), and adding some steals.

The downside is Boagerts is not helping much with power, having hit just two homers since July 5 and tallying six RBI in that period. Three of those RBI came in Friday's game. So you need to ask yourself, where does your team need help with right now?

If Bogaerts' batting average, runs, and steals aren't going to make a difference in the standings for you but you could make up ground with more homers and RBI, then he's a drop candidate. If there's a rookie on waivers who has been lighting up the league since his promotion, Bogaerts could be sacrificed for him.

It boils down to what you need at this stage of the year. While as an overall entity, I'd suggest keeping Bogaerts, there are justifiable reasons why you can drop him on a case-by-case basis.

Eloy Jimenez - OF, Chicago White Sox - 85% rostered

A candidate for being the most frustrating player in fantasy baseball, it's been an all too familiar story this year for Eloy Jimenez. Plenty of power with a good average but not on the field often enough to maximize his abilities.

Jimenez has been limited to 81 games this year and he recently has been dealing with a heel issue. His numbers have been solid still. He has 14 homers, 50 RBI, 36 runs, and no steals with a .283/.322/.463 slash line.

As a result, Jimenez is currently ranked as the 66th outfielder this year despite the fact that over a full (healthy) season, we could be looking at a ~30 homer, ~100 RBI, ~80 runs stat line with a good batting average.

We can see from his Statcast profile that there's nothing wrong with his bat. Just his body that keeps letting Jimenez down. Given he's been predominately the DH for the White Sox this year, the injury issues are even more frustrating.

If I rostered Jimenez, I'd certainly make sure I had an extra outfielder as a bench bat or in my utility spot. This is so you're not playing short in the event Jimenez misses any games as that is the one certainty over the final weeks of the season.

For now, Jimenez is healthy enough to play so there's not much reason to drop him. There is a possibility the White Sox shut him down early given his health problems and the fact their season is just drifting into nothingness.

If that happens or Jimenez hits the IL with something a bit more significant, then he becomes an easy drop. And if you have Jimenez in a dynasty league, check the positional thresholds as there's a chance he might lose his outfield eligibility next season having played just 14 games there so far.

Bryce Elder - SP, Atlanta Braves - 80% rostered

Bryce Elder has been one of the best pitching stories of 2023. After flashing his potential last year with a 3.17 ERA over 54.0 IP, he's been one of the more stellar starting pitchers despite coming into the season largely undrafted.

After 23 starts, Elder has an 8-4 W-L record, 3.64 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 97 Ks (131.0 IP). The problem for Elder and his fantasy managers has been his recent outings as he's sporting a 7.94 ERA over his last six starts, including two seven-run outings and a pair of five-run outings.

A look at his underlying numbers soon gives us a reason why Elder has struggled of late. On the year, he has a 4.32 xFIP and 4.57 SIERA. In reality, his 3.64 ERA appears rather flukey. If we break down things further, his recent struggles were on the cards.

In Elder's first 17 starts of the year, he had a 2.45 ERA but a 4.02 xFIP and 4.26 SIERA. Regression was always going to hit. Over his last six starts, Elder has a 5.40 xFIP and 5.55 SIERA. So not only has natural regression occurred, he's actually been performing worse, too.

It didn't take too long to see a likely cause for that, too. A look at Elder's pitch usage throughout the season gives us an answer.

As we can see, Elder has increased his sinker usage quite considerably of late. The reason that's not a good thing is Elder's sinker is not a good pitch. This year, Elder's sinker has a .281 AVG, .392 SLG, and .334 wOBA against it. The expected numbers are slightly worse.

If we look at the Stuff+ ratings for Elder's entire arsenal, it's less than impressive. His sinker has an 80 Stuff+ rating, the slider is his best pitch with an 87 Stuff+ rating, and the changeup and the four-seam fastball are rated at 55 and 63, respectively.

I'm not saying Elder is a complete drop, partly down to the landscape of starting pitchers right now. But Elder is certainly not a 'must-start' and is very much matchup dependent. He lacks the strikeouts to be a viable option against anything but weaker opponents.

Elder should be able to tally wins in such cases given the potency of the Braves offense. But that is all Elder should be used for in the coming weeks. The fact he is lined up to face both New York teams and the Giants in his next three starts is the reason I'd suggest holding him for now.

On the Hot Seat

Dylan Cease - SP, Chicago White Sox - 94% rostered

In what is becoming an increasingly more common trend, a player's disappointing season has been coinciding with his team's lackluster season. The White Sox are 47-70 while Dylan Cease has a 5-5 W-L record, 4.42 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 150 Ks (126.1 IP).

No one expected a repeat of last year when Cease had a 2.20 ERA (184.0 IP). That came with a 3.50 xFIP and 3.48 SIERA, so fantasy managers will have assumed Cease will put up an ERA north of 3.20 this year. But an ERA of 4.42 was not on the cards.

Cease's 4.18 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA tells us his disappointing numbers have been warranted. He also has a .321 BABIP, which is the ninth-highest among the 64 qualified starters. So maybe there has been an element of misfortune.

Cease relies largely on his fastball and slider, which combine for over 80% of pitches he's thrown. If we compare last year's numbers to this for both pitches, we can see where some of his problems lie.

His slider has still been very good and generating a lot of swing-and-misses, which has helped Cease put up a 26.8% K% (73rd percentile). Last year, Cease had a 30.4 % K% and a 31.9% K% in 2021. Even though he's still striking out plenty, that's also come down a bit.

Despite still being his best pitch, Cease's slider hasn't been as effective as last year. Nor has his fastball, which wasn't particularly great in 2022. Of the 68 pitchers to have thrown at least 550 four-seam fastballs, only 10 have a worse Run Value than Cease's (minus seven).

Cease's fastball has also lost a bit of velocity from last year when it averaged 96.8 mph. This year, it's down to 95.5 mph. It isn't a huge drop, but still significant. To compound things, Cease has been throwing his fastball more this year and increased its usage as the season has progressed.

As the above graph shows, Cease has been using his fastball more and his slider less, which isn't a trend that is going to help his numbers over the remainder of this year. All of this and I've not even brought up Cease's control and the number of walks he allows.

His 10.6% BB% ranks in the 20th percentile but is only slightly higher than last year's 10.4% (16th percentile). So Cease has had success without limiting the free passes, which is why it hasn't been such a contributing factor in this year's regression.

Someone made a justifiable point last week about the White Sox and how they look like they've just given up this year. While I'm not going to label the players as quitters, there's some merit to the fact that bad teams tend to get worse later in the season when playing for nothing.

That could be the case with the White Sox but it's hard to see a pitcher being able to go out on the mound and not give 100% every time he pitches. I'm not going to cut ties with Cease over that possibility. And we did get a prolonged spell of excellent production from Cease during this year.

After giving up seven runs against the Royals in early May, Cease went on a 13-game stretch with a 3.19 ERA. Unfortunately, he picked up two wins in that span despite having seven quality starts with nine of them seeing Cease allow two or fewer runs.

Cease's biggest fantasy asset is the strikeouts and it's easy to forget that in fantasy, we're after an accumulation of them. Cease's 150 Ks ranks 17th overall and is further proof that he's been let down somewhat by the team. Only three of the 64 qualified starters have fewer wins than Cease.

Cease could still finish in the top 20 for strikeouts but it's very doubtful he reaches double-digit wins. Although his last start on Monday was an improvement on his seven-run outing against the Rangers, he still walked seven batters in 5.1 IP. Escaping without allowing a run was a bit of a Houdini act.

He's not someone I'm starting against every opposition and he's lined up to face the Rockies in Coors Field next week, which I'll definitely be avoiding. That should be followed by a home start against the Athletics. At the very least, I'd be holding Cease until then.

If he can pitch well today against the Brewers, limit damage against the Rockies, and then perform well against the Athletics, I'd be much more confident in running Cease out there over the rest of the season. Three bad outings will see me likely send Cease to the waiver wire, however.

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll ensure to cover at least three requests each week.

Cristian Javier - SP/RP, Houston Astros - 93% rostered

After 14 starts this season (80.2 IP), Cristian Javier was boasting a 2.90 ERA with seven wins. Eight starts later and Javier has an 8-2 W-L record, 4.36 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 110 Ks (117.2 IP). A total of 31 earned runs allowed in his last 37 innings has had fantasy managers wondering what to do with Javier.

Javier had three starts in which he allowed 18 runs (10.2 IP) and has settled a bit more over his last five starts (26.1 IP) by allowing 13 runs. That's still a 4.44 ERA, so nothing to be overly excited about and there are still some red flags.

In Javier's last five starts, he's walked 16 batters (14.4% BB%), and his 8.3% BB% on the season is only in the 49th percentile. When your K% (22.4%) is only in the 42nd percentile, it's not a mix that leads to much success.

If we look at some numbers from Javier's first 14 starts compared to his last eight starts, we can see that there has been definite regression of late. Javier was also flirting with problems before regression hit.

Javier's recent struggles haven't been bad luck, although his ERA is a bit more elevated than perhaps it should be. He was due for regression. That has coincided with worse performances and the results speak for themselves.

A large part of Javier's struggles has been his slider, which has been considerably less impactful this year. He's throwing it a career-high 31.2% but it has a career-low 29.7% Whiff%. The batting average (.204), slugging percentage (.363), and weighted on-base average (.285) are all career highs.

The numbers are still good, but there's no doubting the slider has been less effective this year. It's a similar story with Javier's fastball. Given they've made up over 90% of his total pitches, it's not been ideal.

Javier's latest start does offer hope, allowing two earned runs against a good Orioles team. Across his last five starts, Javier hasn't been dreadful. If anything, he does still hold some trade value given his early season results. I'd certainly be looking at trading him rather than dropping him if you still can.

At this stage of the year, we also need to consider remaining schedules given there are not so many starts still available this year. Javier could find himself facing the Marlins, Mariners, and Tigers in his next three starts. That's appealing.

Although Javier has struggled lately and wasn't as good as his early season numbers suggested, I'd likely still hold him in most formats given his schedule and some improvements recently. Javier needs to get the walks in check though and we should still temper expectations.

Kyle Schwarber - OF, Philadelphia Phillies - 95% rostered

For someone who ranks as the 29th overall outfielder in fantasy this year, I sure do get a lot of requests to include Kyle Schwarber every week. And after appearing on The Cut List all the way back in Week 7 (as a hold), he's making his second appearance of the season.

After 114 games, Schwarber has 30 homers, 73 RBI, 70 runs, and no stolen bases with a .186/.329/.433 slash line. It's quite a simple thing with Schwarber. He's got elite power, being one of only six players with at least 30 homers. But a dreadful batting average has him ranking last among the 143 qualified hitters.

If there is one player who has a Statcast profile that tells you the type of hitter he is, it's Schwarber.

This is what Schwarber is. Two of his previous three seasons have seen Schwarber have a batting average under .220 and he came into the season as a career .233 hitter. Obviously, a .186 batting average has caused greater frustration among his fantasy managers.

Schwarber does have a .220 xBA, which is still rubbish. But it is much more palatable and something that would have been expected when drafting him. The reality is, when Schwarber isn't hitting bombs, he's contributing nothing to your fantasy teams.

Three home runs since last Sunday will obviously have helped appease some managers. And again, the reality is this is what Schwarber does. After hitting a homer in four straight games, he then hit one in his next 17 games before last Sunday.

And as I mentioned, when he's not homering, he's contributing nothing. During that 17-game spell, Schwarber hit .091/.346/.164 with eight RBI and seven runs. He's already outperformed that in the last seven days.

In OBP leagues, Schwarber is clearly much more valuable. Depending on how your points are weighted, he's likely more valuable in those leagues, too. But even in standard leagues, Schwarber's power alone is worth rostering and he can be a difference-maker over the final few weeks of the season.

At this stage of the year, if you've been rostering Schwarber and his sub-.190 average all season, the harm he'll do to your overall batting average over the final two months will be less impactful. As long as he's hitting homers, you roster him.

Henry Davis - C/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates - 40% rostered

Another week, another request to look at a catcher. This one is rather interesting though and has no clear-cut answer. Regular readers will know when I discuss a catcher, if they're not one of the top-tier options, I refer to them as interchangeable and therefore droppable.

And many times, I'll say that they're fine to drop for someone with an upside like the potential Henry Davis has. The Pittsburgh Pirates rookie certainly hasn't disgraced himself since being called up in June. After 44 games. Davis is hitting .224/.317/.360 with five homers, 16 RBI, 22 runs, and three stolen bases.

Davis has been predominantly playing in right field, which is generally great for fantasy as having someone in your catcher spot who plays every day is much more beneficial than someone playing three or four times a week.

Over the last 30 days, Davis ranks 17th among catchers. This is why I generally say it's worthwhile playing the 'hot hand' at the position if you don't roster one of the star catchers. These are catchers who currently rank in the top 10 over the last 30 days:

Ryan Jeffers (11% rostered), Gary Sanchez (28% rostered), Freddy Fermin (15% rostered), and Yainer Diaz (26% rostered).

Even Mitch Garver (16% rostered) and Luis Campusano (2% rostered) rank 13th and 14th, respectively.

If we narrow it down to the last 14 days, the top 10 catchers consist of Jeffers, Fermin, Garver, Sanchez, and even James McCann, who is showing a 0% rostered. Half of the top 10 over the last 14 days are rostered in fewer than 30% of leagues. That's how big of a wasteland the position is.

And that's why I have no feelings either way about whether or not you roster Davis. In a month's time, he could find himself as a top 10 catcher over the previous 30 days or he could tank and not be inside the top 25.

He's not a must-roster player in redraft by any stretch of the imagination and is someone I have in the interchangeable group. Davis is someone you pick up when you need a replacement catcher and is on a hot streak. In two catcher leagues, Davis is someone I'd certainly be rostering.

In dynasty, I'd also be certain to roster Davis. He was a top-three prospect in the Pirates organization and top-three overall at the catcher position coming into this season. Just keep in mind he may lose catcher eligibility next year depending on how your league works.

Davis has power few catchers can boast as we can see from his homer highlight reel. How many players can say they homered twice off of Shohei Ohtani in one game, let alone rookies? Davis is set to potentially be a top-10 catcher next year and beyond. But for now, roster him for the upside and hope he continues to flash his power potential.

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