The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 20

Jamie Steed's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 20 of the fantasy season.

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

The dust has settled after the craziest trade deadline in memory. We're starting to see how teams are utilizing their new acquisitions and which players are now seeing more time on the bench. And with less than two months remaining of the regular season, difficult decisions are needed in fantasy if you need to make up the difference in the rankings or to hold on to the top spot.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone for a random player who is on the only hot streak he'll ever have in his career. Every team has played over 100 games now so we have more than enough of a sample size on most players to base our decisions on. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing

Isiah Kiner-Falefa - C/3B/SS, Texas Rangers - 85% rostered

Kiner-Falefa got off to a great start this year and after his first 70 games, was hitting .291/.327/.418 with six homers, 41 runs, 28 RBI and 15 steals (from 16 attempts). He was en route to being a top-3 catcher and even a great option at middle or corner infield spots in leagues he didn't have catcher eligibility. The versatility was a big part of his fantasy value. His last 40 games have been far less productive and are the reason he's found himself on The Cut List this week.

In his last 40 games, Kiner-Falefa is hitting a paltry .195/.224/.226. He's managed just five extra-base hits (zero homers), has seven runs and eight RBI while being 1-for-4 in stolen base attempts. All the more staggering is that he's still the Rangers everyday leadoff hitter. His one successful steal in that period came on August 2, his first since June 13. He has a 24 wRC+ in the last 40 games (since June 20) and no one with at least 100 plate appearances in that time has a lower wRC+ than Kiner-Falefa.

Entering 2021, Kiner-Falefa had a 6.6% BB% in the majors, but this year that has plummeted to 3.0%. Of all qualified hitters, only Salvador Perez (2.3%) has a lower BB%. His expected numbers are very similar to his actual numbers on the year so bad luck doesn't factor into things either. His xwOBA, for example, is .283, which is in the 10th percentile while his wOBA of .284 is also in the 10th percentile. As I mentioned in my introduction, I don't like to make knee-jerk reactions but this has been eight weeks in the making and he's statistically been the worst everyday hitter in baseball for a while.

Verdict - Kiner-Falefa does have two three-hit games this week along with three 0-for games. The Rangers offense is so bad, even if he hits .300 the rest of the season, it's still unlikely that will translate into much value, especially given he's not stealing bases at anywhere near the rate he did at the start of the season. Not getting on base enough has seen the steals diminish. The only leagues I'd still roster him in are two-catcher leagues or AL-only.

J.D. Davis - 3B/OF, New York Mets - 41% rostered

This pick is the complete opposite of Kiner-Falefa in that rather than dropping a regular starter due to a lack of performance, Davis is a drop candidate due to a lack of playing time, despite having solid numbers this year. Davis missed around 10 weeks earlier in the season due to a hand injury. Earlier this week, he admitted that the hand injury is still causing him issues and will continue to "flair up" which will lead to inflammation and some missed time.

That will go some way to explain why he's only started 16 of the Mets' 23 games since he returned from the IL and just six of their last 12 games. The fact the Mets are 9-14 since the All-Star break would make you think they'd want Davis and his .289/.400/.474 slash line (115 plate appearances) in their lineup every day and the fact he hit third in the lineup last night suggests they would like that too. But there were also stories coming out of the Mets suggesting they were open to trading Davis at the trade deadline after acquiring Javier Baez from the Cubs so they don't seem too attached to him.

When Francisco Lindor (oblique) is healthy, he'll partner with Baez in the middle of the Mets infield and with Pete Alonso entrenched at first base, that leaves Jeff McNeil and Jonathan Villar to cover third base along with Davis. Of course, Davis could play the outfield but the issue is he's a dreadful defensive player. In 2020, he was able to be the Mets DH but still ranked in the first percentile for outs above average (according to Statcast) when he did play on defense. In 2019, Davis played 77 games in left field and ranked in the fifth percentile for outs above average. So if the Mets do force him into the lineup, they need to accept his defensive fallibilities and hope his bat masks those issues.

Verdict - If Davis was healthy and an everyday player, he'd be a definite starter in all fantasy leagues. Unfortunately, neither of those things are true right now and other than very deep leagues with daily roster moves, Davis can be dropped. I'd still be inclined to keep him in dynasty leagues, hoping for an offseason trade to an AL team or the introduction of the universal DH.

Hold For Now

Michael Conforto - OF, New York Mets - 63% rostered

The second Mets hitter to feature in this week's Cut List, and another who missed time earlier this year. Conforto missed over a month with a hamstring strain and while he was struggling pre-injury, things have gotten worse since his return. Conforto had a .230/.356/.336 line when he hit the IL on May 16, with two homers, 10 runs and 13 RBI in 34 games. Since his return on June 23, Conforto has played 42 games and is hitting .177/.309/.347 with five homers, 14 runs and 12 RBI. He's currently sat on a .203/.331/.342 slash line for the season and his current 94 wRC+ would be his worst season in the majors.

But all is not lost with Conforto. Whilst the Mets have plenty of infield options, their outfield isn't so blessed so Conforto should continue to see plenty of playing time. Despite starting on the bench last night, Conforto entered the game in place of Brandon Drury and ended up hitting a homer in the ninth inning, the first of back-to-back-to-back homers which nearly led to an improbable comeback.

His expected stats also offer hope that he's been a victim of bad luck which can turn around. He's got a .251 xBA and .435 xSLG, both considerably better than his actual numbers while his .361 xwOBA is much better than his .305 wOBA. His xwOBA actually ranks in the 78th percentile. His 13.4% BB% also ranks in the 93rd percentile and that should also help keep him in the lineup and offer up more opportunities to score runs. Although I fully understand Conforto has considerably underperformed this year, I'd still look to hold on to him in fantasy and hope his luck does turn itself around.

Logan Gilbert - SP, Seattle Mariners - 56% rostered

Gilbert is having a solid rookie campaign with a 4.14 ERA from 14 starts (67.1 IP). His underlying numbers also back him up and suggest he's been a tad unlucky, with a 3.80 xERA, 3.86 xFIP and 3.57 SIERA. The reason for concern and a drop in his fantasy rostership stems from his last three starts in which he's had a 6.75 ERA (13.1 IP). A deeper look at those three starts also tells a tale of bad luck as they combine for a 3.70 xFIP and 3.93 SIERA. It was a similar story for Gilbert's first three starts for the Mariners also, with a 7.59 ERA (10.2 IP) despite a 4.61 xFIP and 4.22 SIERA.

With two months of the season left, Gilbert has only thrown a total of 72.1 IP across MLB and Triple-A this year so he shouldn't be shut down at any point. He's also completed six or more innings in three starts and five or more innings in nine of his last eleven starts. Providing he's effective, he can go deep enough in games to remain relevant in fantasy. His strikeout and walk rates are both favorable too. His 28.2% K% is in the 78th percentile and his 6.4% BB% is in the 76th percentile, while his .301 xwOBA is in the 60th percentile. Gilbert has easily been an above-average pitcher in his rookie campaign and should continue to be rostered in redraft leagues. In dynasty leagues, he's a must-roster pitcher.

On the Hot Seat

Zach Plesac - SP, Cleveland Indians - 80% rostered

I was all set to write about Anthony Rendon (hip) being on the Hot Seat this week, but news broke of him undergoing season-ending surgery which makes him an easy drop. So my attention turned to the Cleveland starter who put up a 2.28 ERA in 55.1 IP (eight starts) last year but has struggled so far in 2021.

Plesac came to prominence after an impressive rookie campaign in 2019 in which he had a 3.81 ERA over 115.2 IP (21 starts). He didn't garner much attention in 2020 drafts and had an ADP of ~404 as his 5.45 xERA, 5.06 xFIP and 5.13 SIERA suggested significant regression was coming. Plesac's 18.5% K% in 2019 also didn't hold much appeal. Not only did Plesac have a great 2020 (albeit a small sample size), his K% jumped to 27.7% which was in the 71st percentile.

His underlying numbers last year also offered hope that he can have a productive 2021 season as he had a 3.43 xERA, 3.50 xFIP and 3.41 SIERA. All above his minuscule ERA but would still put him in the SP2/3 range if he could repeat it over a full season. Unfortunately, he's been unable to do that this year and is becoming the poster boy for not trusting small samples and not putting too much credence into 2020 numbers (whether rightly or wrongly).

Through 15 starts this year (85.1 IP), Plesac has a 4.64 ERA, yet still has a 6-4 record and an impressive 1.15 WHIP. That WHIP is largely down to Plesac's main strength; his 4.5% BB%, which ranks in the 95th percentile. A look at his Statcast profile and we will see that BB% stands out like a sore thumb compared to everything else this year.

Plesac's 4.37 xERA is better than his actual ERA but still only ranks in the 35th percentile and remember that K% he put up in 2020? Well, that's crashed back down to Earth too and currently sits at just 14.8% this year. His 4.76 xFIP and 4.73 SIERA also tell us that he hasn't been unlucky, just bad so far this year. That's made even worse if we go back and look at his NFBC ADP this offseason.

Plesac had an ADP of ~83 and was just one pick behind Jose Berrios (3.31 ERA) and 16 picks ahead of NL Cy Young award favorite Zack Wheeler (2.57 ERA). In real terms, if you took Plesac instead of Berrios or Wheeler, you're rostering the 106th best starting pitcher in fantasy (according to the ESPN Player Rater) instead of the 21st (Berrios) or sixth (Wheeler).

Plesac did miss the whole of June with a fractured thumb and prior to that injury, he had a serviceable 4.14 ERA (10 starts) but in his five starts post-injury, he has a 5.74 ERA and just one quality start (after having five before his injury). If you're waiting for me to say "but there's hope", you're in for a disappointment. There's a good chance that the thumb injury is lingering and causing him ongoing problems. Without the aid of a grip-enhancing substance, he could be having issues adjusting, albeit that is just conjecture right now.

Other than Plesac's elite BB% which ensures he has a solid WHIP. there's really nothing else to get excited about nor warrant rostering Plesac. The lack of strikeouts limits Plesac's value and five of his last seven starts has seen Plesac have a game ERA of over 5.00.

At this point of the season, in shallow leagues, Plesac has become a matchup dependant streaming option if you're not chasing strikeouts. In deeper leagues where decent starting pitching options are few and far between, I'd still look at holding Plesac in the hope he can rediscover some pre-2021 form but would most likely still be benching him until he gives us some glimmer of hope or unless he's got a nice matchup.

The Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Ryan McMahon - 1B/2B/3B, Colorado Rockies - 85% rostered

McMahon is on course to have his best season in the majors, with a .267/.340/.481 line and 18 homers in 103 games. No one on the Rockies roster has more homers and he also leads the team in RBI with 58 and is tied with Raimel Tapia for first in runs scored with 62. If we compare his stats, only nine players this year have 18+ homers, 62+ runs, 58+ RBI, 4+ steals and a .260+ batting average and only seven of them are infielders.

It's easy to point to any Rockies hitter's home and road splits and use it as a criticism or reason not to draft or roster them. This thought process forgets that although Rockies hitters have to play 81 games outside of Colorado, they still get to play 81 games in Colorado. McMahon has 24 games left to play at Coors Field, where he's hit .295/.364/.528 this season. He's been a solid contributor across the board in fantasy and should remain on your rosters.

Trent Grisham - OF, San Diego Padres - 84% rostered

It's almost as if Grisham read your comments last week and decided to get out of his funk for you all. This week, he's gone 7-for-14 with a homer, two doubles, two runs and six RBI. He came into this week hitting .135/.262/.154 since the All-Star break with four runs, three RBI, two steals and no home runs. The Padres dropped Grisham down the order as his last six starts have all come in the bottom half of the lineup after hitting leadoff for a large part of the season. That will explain why he's driven in three times as many runs than he's scored this week.

I was going to state that Grisham is an easy hold but news has emerged that the Padres might look to play Fernando Tatis Jr. (shoulder) in center field on his return to try and help maintain his shoulder for the remainder of the season. If that does happen, that leaves just two spots for Grisham, Tommy Pham and Wil Myers (whom I covered last week). Grisham has reverse splits so shouldn't be in any danger of being platooned but keep an eye on how things turn out when Tatis Jr. returns as if the Padres do rotate their outfielders to fit around Tatis Jr., Grisham could be relegated to only three or four starts a week and a difficult decision will need to be made.

Richard Rodriguez - RP, Atlanta Braves - 67% rostered

Rodriguez was one of the few bright spots on the Pirates roster this year, prior to being traded to the Braves at the deadline. In Pittsburgh, he recorded 14 saves, a 2.82 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 38.1 IP (with four wins). He's pitched four innings for Atlanta and hasn't given up a run so far. Fantasy managers had hoped he would continue saving games for the Braves but that doesn't appear to be the case. Since the trade, the Braves have only had one save, which went to incumbent closer, Will Smith. In that game, Rodriguez came in to pitch the fifth inning. His other appearances for the Braves have come in the eighth (up by seven runs), the ninth (down by one run) and the eighth (up by four runs). The latter game saw Smith pitch the ninth with the four-run lead.

Last night, Charlie Morton pitched six innings and left the game with the Braves leading 2-0. Tyler Matzek pitched the seventh (2.51 ERA in 43.0 IP this year) and Luke Jackson pitched the eighth (2.14 ERA in 42.0 IP this year). Then came Will Smith who entered the game with a 1.64 ERA since July 01st (11.0 IP). He proceeded to give up three runs on three hits and a walk as the Braves lost the game 3-2. Given how tight the race is for the NL East, they cannot afford to lose games like this and Smith's leash could be a short one. If it is, Rodriguez would likely be in line for regular save opportunities and should still get some holds if they implement a committee or Smith keeps the job. Rodriguez doesn't strike out many but a 2.55 ERA and 0.80 WHIP on the season will help your ratios.

Max Kepler - OF, Minnesota Twins - 43% rostered

The Twins have had a dreadful season, currently occupying last place in the AL Central division. Kepler's season has been similarly poor, with a .205/.291/.424 line, 14 homers and eight steals in 77 games. The eight stolen bases are a career-high, but he's only had one since June 21st and the departure of Nelson Cruz to the Rays will mean fewer runs, despite being the Twins regular leadoff hitter. Kepler has performed like someone who should be platooned this year too with a .213/.301/.467 line against right-handed pitching (RHP) and a .185/.267/.321 line against right-handed pitching (LHP).

His line against RHP isn't anything to shout about but 12 of his 14 homers have come against righties and the Twins don't have any reason not to start Kepler given their current record. Kepler does have 40 runs and 42 RBI and there are only 22 hitters who can match Kepler's 14+ homers, 40+ runs and RBI and eight or more stolen bases, despite him playing just 77 games. In shallow leagues, there will more than likely be better options on your waiver wire and this is the stage of the season where you need to focus on specific categories in Roto leagues especially. Kepler doesn't excel in any one category and is a batting average liability so is only a deeper league outfielder right now.

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