The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 20

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 20. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding onto...for now.

The trade deadline passed on Tuesday with a flurry of activity, some of which will have fantasy implications. Some teams were sellers, some were buyers some were the Yankees. Regardless of that, pretty much every fantasy manager will be rostering a player who was either traded or will see a shift in value following a trade. That doesn't necessarily mean they become droppable, but there are some situations where that is the case.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the year continues to progress, there will be different reasons and stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Willy Adames - SS, Milwaukee Brewers - 72% rostered

The Brewers offense has been a letdown this year and is the main reason they're having to battle with the Reds and Cubs for the NL Central crown. Last year they ranked 10th in runs scored with 725 (4.48 runs per game). This year, they rank 23rd with 473 runs (4.22 runs per game).

While Adames isn't solely the reason for the Brewers struggles, he's certainly having to shoulder his share of the blame. On the year, Adames is hitting .203/.288/.380 with 17 homers, 48 RBI, 48 runs and four stolen bases (102 games). A far cry from the 31 homers, 98 RBI, 83 runs and eight steals he tallied last year.

If we compare some of Adames' numbers last year to this year, we can see there isn't actually much difference between them, with the exception of one glaringly clear difference.

Adames has seen his HardHit% drop by 8.4%age points this year. If you don't know just how big of a drop that is, last year he ranked in the 70th percentile. This year, he ranks in the 21st percentile.

You will also see I've included his Pull% too and there's a reason for that. A 9.7% increase is also a big change and it could be symptomatic of many things. One is an injury we don't know about that could be causing issues for Adames and would also help explain the drop in HardHit%.

Adames did land on the IL earlier this season after being struck in the dugout by a foul ball. He missed less than two weeks and given he was hitting .205/.292/.384 prior to the injury and .201/.284/.377 since it's hard to believe that has been a factor, so I don't think this is an Anthony Rizzo-type issue.

In truth, we don't know if there is a nagging injury Adames is dealing with but whatever the problem, they've been season-long and haven't shown any signs of improving.

Verdict: Adames ranks 38th among shortstops this year despite being tied-7th in homers at the position. Unless you are desperate for power and in deeper leagues, Adames really holds no value and there's a chance of a middle infielder being available on waivers who can help your teams.

Tyler Stephenson - C, Cincinnati Reds - 65% rostered

Back in the Week 10 edition of The Cut List, I included Stephenson as droppable for two reasons. One being the catcher position had a dearth of fantasy usefulness so outside of a handful, they're all pretty interchangeable. And the second was a potential drop in playing time.

Stephenson hasn't been too bad this year but has been far from great with eight homers, 39 RBI, 47 runs and no stolen bases while hitting .246/.328/.361 (102 games). That leaves him ranked 16th among catchers.

And the playing time concerns have started to come to fruition. His 349 at-bats this year is fifth most at the position. Over the last 30 days, Stephenson's 53 at-bats rank 25th most among catchers.

That's been in part due to the fact Stephenson is a below-average defensive catcher (ranking in the tenth percentile for pitch framing and 32nd percentile for pop time to second base). That has meant a large portion of his starts have come as the Reds DH.

Now, the Reds have something of a log jam on the infield which means more competition for games as the DH. Stephenson hasn't exactly performed well enough to justify starting there with Christian Encarnacion-Strand being a regular at DH and giving Joey Votto the odd day off from the field while covering first base.

One thing I will give Stephenson credit for is his consistency. After a hot start to the season, he cooled off but has been pretty steady since then as his season-long slash line attests to.

And that does hold some weight in fantasy. As mentioned, outside of the top names, catchers are interchangeable but picking a new one up every other week, hoping his hot spell continues only to see them hit .160/.210/.290 over the next fortnight before repeating the process can become tiresome.

Having a boring option who will chip in with some stats and won't harm you does have value in deeper leagues. The problem is, he's not been playing often enough to make his consistency count and at this point of the season, you need to ask yourself if it is worth hanging on to Stephenson.

Verdict: Of course, it's entirely dependent on who is available at the position on your waivers, but I'd certainly be seeking a replacement for Stephenson. In two catcher leagues and deep leagues, he's still someone I'd look at rostering unless a better option is dropped by someone else.

Scott Barlow - RP, San Diego Padres - 58% rostered

One of the main fantasy casualties of the trade deadline, Barlow was traded from the Royals to the Padres, all but ending any fantasy value he had. On the year, Barlow has a 2-4 W-L record, 5.71 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 50 Ks and 13 saves (41.0 IP).

The strikeouts have been nice but the only reason you've been rostering Barlow was due to his saves. Now in San Diego, they will have all but disappeared with Josh Hader not losing the role.

And the early signs don't suggest Barlow will be seeing higher leverage spots. He made his debut for the Padres on Wednesday, getting the final two outs of the sixth inning and then completing the seventh. He retired five of the six batters he faced, with just one reaching on a Barlow error and tallied three strikeouts.

On Friday, Barlow got the ninth inning but the Padres were down by three runs and by the time he left the mound, they trailed by six. He gave up three hits and hit a batter, retiring just two of the six batters he faced.

Barlow has been better than his numbers suggest, with a 3.94 xFIP, 3.93 SIERA and .351 BABIP. Still not enough to suggest he'll immediately factor into the late innings but as we can see from his Statcast Profile, Barlow has had one major flaw this season.

His 11.7% BB% is considerably higher than his career mark (9.4% BB%) and something that could prevent Barlow from picking up the odd save when Hader is unavailable. What is certain, is rather than getting possibly 10 more saves this season with the Royals, Barlow might now only add a couple more in 2023.

Verdict: Every year we see a closer on a bad team traded to a competing team and lose their fantasy value. This year, it's Barlow's turn. He could be utilized as a setup man and pick-up holds so in deeper holds leagues, I'd keep him rostered and see what role he has. But in leagues counting saves, unless you're desperate or have big enough benches to handcuff Hader, Barlow is droppable.

Hold For Now

George Springer - OF, Toronto Blue Jays - 94% rostered

Between June 23 and July 01, Springer had 34 plate appearances and registered as many hits as I did during that time frame. He ended an 0-f0r-35 skid on Wednesday with a base hit. Yesterday, Springer went 4-for-4 so has seemingly cast off those struggles.

Over the last three weeks (since July 17), Springer is still only hitting .139/.263/.154. In that timeframe, Springer has nine hits with four of them coming on Saturday. That performance came on the back of his double on Friday, the only extra-base hit he has in the last three weeks.

As I say in the introduction; "A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone". Granted, Springer's struggles have been going on for three weeks and he's been truly dreadful in that span. But the point remains and it looks like we've turned the corner.

On the year, Springer is hitting .253/.324/.385 with 13 homers, 43 RBI, 60 runs and 14 stolen bases (107 games). That's only enough to rank 29th among outfielders with his last two games seeing Springer jump up nine places.

It's hard to really contextualize what has led to Springer's recent historical slump and if anything, the longer his 0-for went on, it was more likely a psychological thing rather than anything physical or technical.

But I will focus a little on Springer's overall struggles this year as there's been a common theme with Springer for a while and they've been exasperated in 2023.

Below is a graphic that shows Springer's wOBA by pitch location. As we can see, down in the zone is where Springer struggles. Given 23.6% of the total pitches he's faced this year have been missing the zone in the section down and away, it's clear pitchers are targeting him there.

Like many hitters, Springer fares better against fastballs than he does breaking pitches. This year, he's seen a career-high 33.8% breaking pitches and has a .200 AVG, .324 SLG and .262 wOBA against them. All of which are five-year lows.

With more data available than ever, it feels like pitchers have just clued up to Springer. Despite staying relatively healthy, Springer is on course for career lows in wRC+ (99), OPS (.709) and ISO (.132). That's largely down to the last three weeks as Springer had a 113 wRC+, .763 OPS and .154 ISO before July 17.

Between Springer's struggles against breaking pitches this year and his enormous recent slump, it's certainly trending toward being a career-low year in many categories for Springer, but I'm not prepared to drop him based on his recent struggles which he may have now put behind him.

Teoscar Hernandez - OF, Seattle Mariners - 88% rostered

Speaking of outfielders who have disappointed this year, Hernandez has been arguably one of the most disappointing. Drafted as an OF2, Hernandez is currently ranked 45th among outfielders with a .241/.288/.407 slash line, 16 homers, 59 RBI, 46 runs and five stolen bases (110 games).

There was an expectation that Hernandez would be traded on deadline day as he heads into free agency this offseason. But, he remained with the Mariners and will want to finish the season strong.

Last year, Hernandez hit .267/.316/.491 with 25 homers, 77 RBI, 71 runs and six steals (131 games). The Mariners have 51 games left this year and if Hernandez stays healthy, we can expect him to play in ~45 of them.

If that is the case, at his current pace, Hernandez would finish the year with 22 homers, 83 RBI, 65 runs and seven stolen bases. Other than a drop in the batting average, Hernandez is on course to put up similar numbers to last year.

I admit, that's a rather simplistic way to look at it but if we compare Hernandez's Statcast Profiles over the last two seasons, they are also similar in what he does, just not quite as similar in how well he does it.

There are still a lot of strikeouts, few walks but plenty of power and speed with only the expected stats which have really declined. And the one positive for Hernandez is his expected stats are better than his actual numbers.

He's currently sporting a .252 xBA, .465 xSLG and .330 xwOBA (.330 wOBA) which are still short of last year and not great. But the xSLG suggests we should have seen more power from Hernandez and that he's been a bit unlucky in that regard.

Hernandez had been slumping more of late and hit just .218/.228/.291 over the last two weeks of July. It could have been down to something I alluded to in last week's Cut List. If Hernandez was hearing the rumors and expecting to be traded, that can impact a player's mindset.

So far in August, Hernandez has gone 5-for-17 with two doubles so it's entirely possible that the stability of knowing where he will be playing over the final two months of his contract can help him at the plate.

That's obviously not something that's quantifiable and is conjecture but is something worth consideration and a reason why Hernandez deserves at least a couple more weeks before you drop him. If he can play with a bit more freedom now, we could see a good end of the year from Hernandez.

Austin Hays - OF, Baltimore Orioles - 51% rostered

Hays has been having a solid if unspectacular season. After 99 games, Hays has nine homers, 42 RBI, 52 runs and two stolen bases with a .287/.329/.443 slash line. That's left him ranked as the 50th outfielder so he's been on the bubble of worth rostering.

Hays has been struggling lately, which makes sense as he wouldn't be featured here otherwise. But the good news is despite hitting just .198/.245/.275 since July 01, he hasn't seen a reduction in playing time. He didn't play in yesterday's game but that ended a streak of 17 consecutive starts for Hays.

In fact, since July 01, only three Orioles hitters have had more plate appearances than Hays (99). Obviously, that's not a guarantee given the depth the Orioles possess but if they haven't benched Hays more regularly by now, it's unlikely they will any time soon.

While Hays' numbers have been a little underwhelming, it's not all his fault. After hitting 22 homers (13 at home) in 131 games during the 2021 season, that dropped down to 16 homers (six at home) in 145 games last year.

This year, seven of Hays' homers have come at home but he's still been a victim of the change in the right field wall and dimensions the Orioles made last offseason.

Hays has an expected home run (xHR) total of 11.8 and if we look at his expected home runs by ballpark, the nine xHR he has at home is the fewest. For comparison, Hays has 17 xHR if he played at the Reds' Great American Ballpark.

The above graphic shows us Hays' hit spray chart overlaid on Oriole Park and Great American Ballpark. This should give you an idea as to how big a difference there is for right-handed hitters between the two ballparks and why Hays and his fellow rightie Orioles hitters will continue to have their value suppressed.

That doesn't help fantasy managers now and isn't going to magically change so why am I recommending to keep Hays? Firstly, I'm only recommending that in the non-shallow leagues or leagues where you have more than four outfielders in your lineups.

Secondly, Hays' splits don't seem to make much sense given what we've seen with the ballpark. Of his four splits (home and away versus LHP and RHP), you would expect Hays to have better numbers on the road against LHP. That's actually his worst split.

At home, Hays has a 111 wRC+ against LHP and 113 wRC+ against RHP. On the road, Hays has a 73 wRC+ against LHP and 123 wRC+ against RHP. Given Hays has a career 109 wRC+ against LHP and 107 wRC+ against RHP, this year just seems like an anomaly.

Given these aren't huge samples for each split this year, there's also the possibility Hays has just faced more elite LHP on the road so would expect worse numbers.

Hays is the type of boring OF5 I like to roster in most leagues. He'll play most games and will chip in across the board without harming you. The recent struggles are a concern as Hays isn't exactly an elite hitter you expect will break out of a slump in a big way.

If he doesn't begin to show signs of life at the plate over the next couple of weeks or he starts to see a drop in playing time, I'd be looking at replacing Hays in all leagues except the deepest ones.

On the Hot Seat

Julio Urias - SP, Los Angeles Dodgers - 96% rostered

After being drafted as a high-to-mid SP2 this year, Urias has been one of the biggest fantasy disappointments. A hamstring strain saw Urias miss a few weeks and limited him to just 16 starts. And the results haven't been good when he's been on the mound.

Urias has an 8-6 W-L record, 4.69 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 82 Ks (86.1 IP). If we look at his last five starts in the hope he's worked out the rust after two dreadful starts on either side of his IL stint, we'll see Urias has a 4.18 ERA in 28.0 IP. However, there have been positive signs.

Of those five outings, three have been quality starts and his latest one on Thursday saw Urias throw five shutout innings. In the middle of all that is an eight-run shellacking against the Orioles (5.0 IP). So four out of his last five starts have been productive.

Now comes the slight concern I have since his activation off of the IL. Collectively, the last five starts have a 4.40 SIERA and 4.12 xFIP so his 4.18 ERA hasn't been unlucky and Urias' fastball, which hasn't been great all season, has seen a drop in velocity in recent outings.

Below shows his fastball velocity per start and after seeing it drop from 94.1 MPH in 2021 to 93.1 MPH in 2022, it's averaging just 92.7 MPH this year. It hasn't averaged more than 92.4 MPH in any of his last four starts and the 91.7 MPH average against the Orioles could help explain the eight earned runs he allowed in that start.

The numbers against the Urias fastball aren't great this year either. It has a .273 AVG, .489 SLG and .343 wOBA against it with the expected numbers being very similar. The fastball isn't the only pitch Urias throws which has been disappointing.

His changeup has been equally poor this year with a .296 AVG, .630 SLG and .401 wOBA against it. But the expected numbers are better with a .244 xBA, .433 xSLG and .310 xwOBA.

Part of the problem Urias has with his fastball velocity dropping is his changeup averaged 86.0 MPH so the difference between the two pitches is shrinking. Given those two pitches make up 61.1% of the total pitches Urias has thrown this year, they both need to be better.

It doesn't feel like Urias will be able to work out the issues over the next two months and his last five outings are likely what we see over the remainder of this season. Good outings, picking up some wins but expect the odd clunker mixed in.

Given we know how good Urias can be and has been, it's difficult to justify dropping him. Even in shallow leagues, he'll still pick up a decent number of wins and if he can minimize the damage in his bad outings, Urias would still be a top-40 SP over the remainder of the season.

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll ensure to cover at least three requests each week.

Joe Ryan - SP, Minnesota Twins - 95% rostered

The first of two Twins rotation members the Reddit community appears to be worried about and that's understandable, especially in the case of Ryan. He's currently got a 9-8 W-L record, 4.43 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 152 Ks (126.0 IP).

It's Ryan's recent form that has caused the concern. However, following his latest bad outing, giving up seven runs in 4.o IP against the Cardinals on Wednesday, we received confirmation as to what the problem has been.

Joe Ryan said he’s been dealing with the groin issue since Atlanta. Affects him getting on top of the ball at the very end of his delivery, he said, and he tried to work through it himself. Hasn’t gotten better.

Rocco: “The communication on this certainly has to be better.”

— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) August 3, 2023

If you didn't know, the Atlanta game was on June 27, seven starts ago. In those seven starts, Ryan has an 8.63 ERA (32.1 IP). Prior to then, in 15 starts Ryan was sporting a 2.98 ERA (93.2 IP).

There was a little bit of luck involved in those first 15 starts, as Ryan had a 3.75 xFIP and 3.51 SIERA but he was still one of the top starting pitchers in baseball and even with some regression, would've remained a top-30 option if he remained healthy.

Unfortunately, he didn't remain healthy, tried to pitch through it without saying anything, struggled badly and now has not only found himself on the IL with significantly worse numbers but he's also irked his manager. Safe to say, it's been a rough few weeks for Ryan.

The groin issue has at least given us some clarity and should have made our decision easier with what to do with Ryan. Put him on the IL and if he returns healthy, then we can expect a solid number of strikeouts, a sprinkling of wins and a ~3.50 ERA.

If we find out the groin strain is more severe and Ryan might be done for the year, then we can just drop him. Until such time, I'd be keen to hold on to him as best I can.

Nick Castellanos - OF, Philadelphia Phillies - 94% rostered

Castellanos is a curious case and I fear, I may not be able to shed much light on his performances this year and what to expect in the future. The reason I'm unsure is I genuinely don't know what to make of him anymore. In his final few years in Detroit, he was a very consistent hitter with good power.

In Cincinnati, the power increased as you might expect with such a hitter-friendly ballpark. But then came last year, his first with the Phillies after signing a $100m five-year contract. He hit .263/.305/.389 with 13 home runs in 136 games.

This year has been something of a resurgence as Castellanos has 16 homers, 65 RBI, 56 runs and six stolen bases while hitting .274/.316/.450. That's much nearer his career-slash line of .276/.325/.473 and he's already surpassed last year's numbers.

The concern for fantasy managers is how bad he was in July. If we look at his monthly splits, we can see why his fantasy managers have been so frustrated lately.

Castellanos has already homered twice in August so hopefully, July was just a random anomaly. And if it wasn't for the fact he was so underwhelming last year, I'd be much more inclined to give Castellanos the benefit of the doubt.

If I had to make a decision, I would hold on to Castellanos. It feels like his previous two seasons were both his ceiling and his floor. The ballpark-assisted 2021 season likely won't be repeated, but nor will his 2022 first year on a big contract. He's somewhere in the middle.

And this year's numbers as a whole do reflect that. Let's hope he's put a dreadful July behind him and can hit around eight more homers with a .280 batting average over the remainder of the year. That seems a reasonable expectation and certainly enough to justify rostering in all leagues.

Sonny Gray - SP, Minnesota Twins - 86% rostered

Gray has emerged as the ace of the Twins staff with a 5-4 W-L record, 3.18 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 123 Ks (124.1 IP). With numbers like that, it might be somewhat surprising that anyone is considering Gray as a potential drop.

Maybe they're not considering it. Maybe fantasy managers are just anxious this is the beginning of a slippery slope into being borderline rosterable. That is understandable given Gray has a 4.42 ERA in his six starts since July 01.

And the answer is a little bit of yes it is and no it isn't. What we have seen recently, is natural regression. If I show you Gray's numbers pre-July 01 and over his last six starts, we'll see that in actual fact, they're not dissimilar.

Somehow, fewer walks, more groundballs and less hard contact has seen an increase in Gray's ERA. That's simply down to natural regression and a small sample that can throw out anomalies like this.

Gray does have a 3.73 xFIP and 4.12 SIERA so a bit more regression is possible but if we do look at his six starts since July 01, two of them accounted for 11 of the 18 earned runs Gray allowed. So we're only looking at a couple of bad outings.

And while there may be some more regression in the coming weeks, there's nothing to suggest anyone should be too worried about rostering Gray for the rest of this season. If you are concerned about him, you should still be able to command a good return in a trade, especially after his latest outing.

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