The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 18

July 25, 2021

Jamie Steed's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 18 of the fantasy season.

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

We're entering the last week of July leaving just two months of the season left and it's no coincidence we now feature a pair of star players on this week's edition of The Cut List. As we head into the home stretch, more difficult decisions need to be made, especially when it comes to the early-round draft picks. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is hold on to a struggling star at this stage of the season.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone for a random player who is on the only hot streak he'll ever have in his career. We have more than enough of a sample size on most players to base our decisions on now with just two full months left of the regular season. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

Worth Dropping and Replacing

Keston Hiura - 1B/2B, Milwaukee Brewers - 35% rostered

Hiura had an ADP of ~74 this offseason despite having a 34.6% K% in 2020 and an MLB career 32.3% K%. But his upside was considered worth the risk of drafting him with 32 homers and 12 steals in 143 games across two seasons while hitting .266/.338/.505. It was also announced prior to the season that Hiura would primarily be playing first base so having dual-position eligibility within the first fortnight of the year was a nice bonus. Unfortunately, things didn't quite pan out how we all wanted.

On May 2, Hiura had a .152/.247/.266 line with one homer and one steal in 26 games with a 36.0% K%. That saw him sent back down to Triple-A. His demotion seemed to do the trick as in 20 games, he hit .403/.506/.722 with five homers, although the red flag was still there with a 29.2% K%. Nevertheless, Hiura was recalled by the Brewers on May 24, but his season hasn't got going still.

Since his recall, Hiura has played 31 games (102 plate appearances) and is hitting .182/.270/.341 with three homers and one steal. An injury to Daniel Vogelbach didn't open up more playing time for Hiura as the Brewers traded for Rowdy Tellez who started last night against a LHP and then homered twice against the RHP relievers. In the Brewers' six games since the All-Star Break, Hiura has started just once and pinch-hit twice. Oh, and remember that red flag I mentioned about his strikeouts? Well since his recall, Hiura has a 41.2% K%.

Verdict - A lack of playing time and producing next to nothing when he does play makes Hiura droppable in all redraft leagues. In dynasty leagues, Hiura can still be rostered in the hope he can fix his strikeout woes in the offseason as if he does, he could still be the star we all hoped he would be.

Victor Robles - OF, Washington Nationals - 25% rostered

If you drafted Robles this year, you were certainly hoping he would repeat his 2019 season, in which he hit .255/.326/.419 with 17 homers and 28 steals. In 52 games last year, Robles hit .220/.293/.315 with three homers and four steals, in what was considered an anomaly due to the shortened season. As of now, it appears as though 2019 was the anomaly and last year was more the expectation for Robles moving forward.

This year, Robles is hitting .207/.325/.300 with just one homer and eight steals in 82 games. He did miss some time in May with a sprained ankle but he's played 44 games since returning and is hitting .168/.301/.274. Any hopes that his defense will keep him in the lineup and he can hit his way into some form were dashed on Friday when news emerged that Robles would sit frequently against right-handed pitching in favor of Andrew Stevenson. He hasn't started a game since Tuesday and Saturday was his first appearance since then when he struck out while pinch-hitting with the bases loaded.

Being on the short side of a "soft platoon" and hitting .213/.311/.306 since the start of last year, with four homers and 12 steals in 133 games all but takes you out of fantasy relevancy. Even hoping for more steals may be a long shot as Robles average sprint speed has declined since 2019. When he debuted in 2017, his 30.9 ft/s sprint speed was the fastest in MLB. In 2018 and 2019, it was 29.3 ft/s (95th percentile) but last year (28.0 ft/s) and this year (28.1 ft/s), he's dropped to the 78th percentile. He's only 8-for-13 in stolen base attempts this year (61.54%).

Verdict - Like Hiura, a lack of production coupled with reduced playing time leaves Robles droppable in all redraft leagues. Robles is still only 24-years-old and has just 322 MLB games to his name so in dynasty leagues, you can keep hold of him and hope his 2019 season wasn't a complete outlier and that he'll at least get close to that season on a regular basis.

Hold For Now

Ramon Laureano - OF, Oakland Athletics - 81% rostered

It may seem a bit excessive to call into question Laureano's rostership given he's got a legitimate chance of having a 20/20 season. His .242/.315/.441 line with 14 homers, 11 steals, 40 runs and 37 RBI in 79 games all seem positive and for the most part, they are. The concern comes from Laureano's production following a June IL stint for a hip strain.

Like Robles, Laureano has a very good 2019 season on his resume. That year, he hit 24 homers, stole 13 bases and had a .288/.340/.521 line in 123 games. While this year seems to be petering out a bit, Laureano does still rank tied-48th in RBI, tied-55th in runs, tied-32nd in homers and tied-15th in stolen bases among all eligible outfielders. He remains an everyday player for the A's and other than in very shallow leagues, is still worthy of rostering.

But it's unlikely Laureano's last two months will resemble his first two months given the way he's been hitting since returning from the IL. Prior to that injury, Laureano played 48 games and hit 11 homers, was 8-for-11 in stolen base attempts (72.7%) and had a .257 average. In the 31 games since his return, Laureano has three homers, is 3-for-5 in stolen base attempts (60.0%) and has a .220 average. Prior to the All-Star break, he was hitting leadoff regularly but he's predominantly hit fifth or seventh over the last week which may be a sign of things to come.

Paul DeJong - SS, St. Louis Cardinals - 29% rostered

After hitting 74 homers in his first three seasons in the majors (382 games), DeJong proved himself to be a cheap source of power at a position that had been lacking power options. That has changed in recent times with the emergence of star shortstops across the league and after a 2020 season in which DeJong hit just three homers in 45 games with a .250/.322/.349 line. He found himself with an ADP of ~231 this offseason and was the 24th shortstop drafted on average.

DeJong missed four weeks earlier in the year following a rib fracture and was a popular drop in fantasy leagues when he went on the IL (May 14th). At the time, he was hitting .177/.277/.371 with seven homers in 35 games. Following his return on June 11th, DeJong's struggles continued and in June he hit just .148/.258/.315 with three homers in 18 games. Since July 1, DeJong has been a completely different player. He's hitting .315/.383/.519 with three homers in 17 games this month. His season stats are now 13 homers, 32 runs, 31 RBI and three steals with a .203/.297/.392 in 70 games.

That's a 162-game pace of 3o homers, 74 runs, 72 RBI and seven steals, which for the 24th shortstop being drafted, isn't bad at all. The fact he's in the midst of the best spell he's had all season suggests if you held on to DeJong this long, you should continue to do so and are now being rewarded for your patience. Rather than dropping him, I'd be checking my waiver wires to see if he's available and would gladly add him.

On the Hot Seat

Cody Bellinger - 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers  - 98% rostered

Bellinger played in just four games to start the season before a calf injury saw him hit the IL. He didn't return until May 29th and missed further time in June with a hamstring strain. Friday night, Bellinger was removed from the game in the eighth inning with hamstring tightness following a triple and was ruled out of Saturday's contest, although manager Dave Roberts didn't seem too concerned about it.

Roberts is likely concerned about the lack of production from the former National League MVP who is hitting just .162/.276/.284 with four homers and two steals in 42 games. If it transpires Bellinger needs another short IL stint, then fantasy managers should simply put him on their IL and worry about him in another couple of weeks. But let's assume he'll be fine and returns to the Dodgers lineup for their series against the Giants on Tuesday.

We must remember we're looking at just a 42 game sample size for this year which sandwiches two different IL stints but there's no way of sugar-coating things. While his expected stats are better than his actual numbers, they're still pretty putrid. He has a .204 xBA, .336 xSLG and .297 xWOBA. His 26.4% K% is the highest it's been since his 2017 debut season and is considerably worse than the 21.5% K% he had entering the season.

There are a couple of crumbs of comfort in that Bellinger has a .200 BABIP, suggesting he has been unlucky and his 13.8% BB% is higher than his career mark of 12.4% prior to 2021. He also managed to break his 0-for-25 skid on Friday with a double before his triple, so if we do squint hard enough, there are signs of life for Bellinger.

Despite his struggles and injuries, I still can't condone just dropping Bellinger. Even during his worst season in the Majors, his name still carries some trade value so you should be able to get something in return, even if it is "selling-low" on him. We need to remember though, his season averages prior to 2020 were 37 runs, 13 steals, 97 runs and 96 RBI with a .278/.368/.559 line.

If Bellinger has just two weeks of being his old self, that could make the difference between winning or losing your league or making the playoffs or not. As difficult as it is, you need to ask yourself what will hurt you more. Keeping Bellinger on your rosters and he continues to do nothing, or dropping him and seeing him go nuts for a 2-3 week period on an opposing team's roster?

The Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Christian Yelich - OF, Milwaukee Brewers - 98% rostered

Given Yelich was a first-round draft pick this year, he's been dreadful. He's hitting .240/.387/.373 with six homers and seven steals. Following two IL stints earlier in the season for a back strain, Yelich has played just 66 games this year which has limited him to 44 runs and 28 RBI. The 44 runs do rank him tied-39th among outfielders so at least Yelich has helped your teams with something. According to the ESPN Player Rater, Yelich ranks as the 70th outfielder in fantasy this year, again that's a far cry from where he was drafted. But we're talking about a former National League MVP who was hitting .269/.345/.462 prior to last night's 0-for-4 performance with a homer and a steal since the All-Star Break. Maybe the few days off helped him with any lingering back issue and if you've held Yelich on your rosters for this long, you should really see it through to the end.

George Springer - OF, Toronto Blue Jays - 96% rostered

Springer is a prime example of how quickly a player can turn things around, especially when they've played as few games (27) as Springer has this year. Last Sunday, when I was asked to include Springer in this week's Cut List, he was hitting .184/.295/.395 with five homers, one steal, 10 runs and 11 RBI in 21 games. As I write about him a week later, he's hitting .232/.321/.495 with eight homers, two steals, 17 runs and 15 RBI. That is how quickly a player can turn things around and which is why I preach patience early in the season as a good week can completely turn around a players' numbers. To give context, Springer has a 162-game pace of 48 homers, 12 stolen bases, 102 runs and 90 RBI. Providing he remains healthy, he's not someone you want to drop.

Charlie Blackmon - OF, Colorado Rockies - 85% rostered

Blackmon is probably the player I'm asked about more than anyone in regards to whether or not he should be dropped. And I keep coming back with the same line of thinking about him; even though the power is disappearing and the speed is almost gone, he's still a solid source of runs and RBI. His .277/.367/.402 line with six homers and two steals isn't anything to get overly excited about and going back to last season, Blackmon has just 12 homers in his last 149 games. But his 42 runs and 47 RBI ranks tied-44th and tied-29th respectively among all outfielders. That alone should keep him rostered in almost any fantasy league. The fact he's hitting .328/.369/.508 in July and since the All-Star break is hitting .429/.467/.786 with five extra-base hits in seven games (and has both his steals) should ensure he doesn't get dropped anywhere.

Luke Voit - 1B, New York Yankees - 76% rostered

I understand the frustration with rostering Voit and that he's currently on his third IL stint of the season having played just 29 games this year. But the fact he's on the IL right now should make your decision for you as in any league with IL spots, it's unlikely you have better options to stash on your IL than Voit. He's due back hopefully late next week after resuming baseball activities earlier this week. So what can we expect from Voit when he returns? Providing he's healthy, last year should act as a reminder of what he could do when he led the league in homers with 22 in 56 games. Prior to this season, Voit had played 213 games as a Yankee with 57 homers so the projections of him hitting ~10 the remainder of 2021 seem fair and he could easily eclipse that. Voit could provide fantasy league winning power numbers on his return and isn't a player I'd suggest dropping.

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