The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 18

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 18. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to...for now.

We've passed the All-Star Break and are now well into the second half of the season. The MLB trade deadline is looming and there could be plenty of players on the move so it's prudent to monitor the news and try to keep one step ahead of your league mates as any little edge you can get at this stage of the year could make a huge difference by the end of the season.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the year continues to progress, there will be different reasons and stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Ty France - 1B/3B, Seattle Mariners - 75% rostered

France has been one of those later-round draft picks that is not sexy nor spectacular. But he provides consistent production and is an ideal corner infielder that'll contribute in four of the five main fantasy categories. At least, that was the plan this year when you drafted him.

In 95 games this year, France has seven homers, 38 RBI, 56 runs and one stolen base with a .249/.322/.372 slash line. In his previous two years, France averaged 146 games, 19 homers, 78 RBI, 75 runs and no stolen bases while hitting .283/.353/.440.

If we extrapolate this season's numbers across 146 games, France will have 11 homers, 58 RBI, 88 runs and 2 steals. Other than the number of runs France is scoring, everything has been a disappointment.

If we compare France's underlying numbers over the last three seasons, we can see there isn't much change, just enough to make a difference in his output, however.

The issue is France has only just about been able to stay relevant by being solid if unspectacular. A drop in hard contact, more swings and misses, fewer walks and more strikeouts have all combined to drag down France's fantasy production.

The frustration is even greater when we consider that after averaging 4.3 runs per game in 2021 and in 2022, the Mariners are averaging 4.5 per game this year, so they have been scoring more runs. France just hasn't been driving many in.

And following an 0-for-22 spell in six games either side of the All-Star Break, France has been dropped down the batting order. Before last Sunday, France had exclusively started as the number two or three hitter this year. Now, he's finding himself hitting sixth or seventh.

I don't put too much weight on the six-game hitless streak but if the upshot is a significant drop in the batting order, we do need to take stock. Unfortunately, it's the result of too much negativity in France's production which has only gotten worse.

His expected numbers are better, with a .262 xBA, .398 xSLG and .324 xwOBA (.310 wOBA). But only the expected batting average ranks better than the 50th percentile (65th percentile) so is hardly something to pin too much hope onto.

On the year, France ranks 26th among first basemen, 29th among third basemen and 46th among corner infielders. Everything about France is borderline rosterable and no matter where you put him in your lineup, there's likely a better option.

Verdict: I'd still hold France in deeper leagues but the drop down the batting order will harm his counting stats if it sticks. Other than runs, everything else was in decline and without one standout category France will help in, at this stage of the season I'm fine looking for an upgrade from someone who can help where you need it.

Elias Diaz - C, Colorado Rockies - 56% rostered

Not even two weeks ago, Diaz was the All-Star Game MVP. Yet, here I am saying he's ok to cut in fantasy. So what makes me say that he's droppable less than a fortnight later?

Well, Diaz hasn't been bad, especially at the thin catcher position. In 84 games, Diaz has 10 homers, 46 RBI, 29 runs and no steals with a .271/.325/.428 slash line. That's enough to rank tenth among all catchers.

Over the last 30 days, Diaz ranks 31st at the position and since June 01, he's hitting .206/.259/.344 (38 games). Diaz did start the season on fire, with six homers and a .321/.376/.494 slash line by the end of May, so his struggles have been prolonged and pretty significant.

Only five catcher-eligible players have played more games this season and volume is important at the position. That's not translated into much production though, with Diaz ranking tied-15th in homers, fourth in RBI and tied-17th in runs.

Obviously, the RBI total is nice but outside of that, you're not getting much in return. And the other negative of Diaz's volume aiding his value is he's providing very little away from Coors Field as his home and road splits show.

If the Rockies play 162 games at home, Diaz could be a top-3 catcher. That's not how things work and realistically, Diaz is barely worth starting when he's on the road. If the Rockies played 162 games on the road, Diaz wouldn't even be drafted.

In one catcher leagues, you shouldn't be rostering a second catcher unless you have big benches so having an alternative to swap in when the Rockies have a road trip isn't viable either.

Verdict: The volume is nice but outside of RBI, Diaz doesn't offer much help even at a position with a dearth of options. Unless you need the RBI help, I'm fine dropping Diaz in shallower leagues and looking elsewhere for a catcher. In deeper leagues or two-catcher leagues, I'm still holding Diaz.

Scott McGough - RP, Arizona Diamondbacks - 40% rostered

McGough returned to MLB after a four-year stint in Japan, where he had a 2.94 ERA (232.2 IP). And there was hope and optimism that McGough would feature in the later innings and ultimately become the main closer in Arizona.

McGough picked up his first save of the year on April 02 but the Diamondbacks proceeded with Andrew Chafin and Miguel Castro to close out games with McGough tallying three blown saves up until June 10. He also had 11 holds in that period (31.2 IP).

On June 11, McGough picked up his second save of the season and looked like being the main closer in Arizona. From June 11 until last Sunday, McGough was responsible for six of the Diamondbacks seven saves. Unfortunately, July has not been good for McGough and he appears to have lost the closer role.

If we look at McGough's ERA as the season has progressed, it will help demonstrate how he earned himself the closer role but also why he has seemingly lost it.

After three scoreless outings to start July (4.1 IP), McGough's last two outings have done the damage with McGough allowing six earned runs in 1.1 IP. That has led to the Diamondbacks looking elsewhere for their closer.

It should be said that both of those outings last weekend were with Arizona trailing by one run in the eighth inning so neither save nor hold opportunities. But the Diamondbacks turned to Kevin Ginkel in back-to-back save opportunities this week.

And Ginkel secured both saves, albeit allowing an earned run in one of them. I'm not sure Ginkel will keep the role all season but it's worth noting that he's got a 7.5% BB%, which is a career-low and considerably better than his 10.1% BB% in his career.

If Ginkel can continue to keep the walks in check, he has a chance of keeping the role. Alternatively, the Diamondbacks could look at making a trade given they're in a battle for their first postseason berth since 2017.

Either way, it doesn't bode well for McGough and his fantasy managers. He could regain the role or be considered for saves on certain days in certain situations but overall, just when it looked like McGough was locked in as the closer, he now appears to be out of the role.

Verdict: In leagues counting holds, McGough should still be considered as he will likely continue to feature in that role. And it wouldn't be a bad idea in deeper leagues to hold on until the trade deadline just to see how things pan out. Otherwise, I'd look to move on and find someone else who will be more helpful to your team.

Hold For Now

Hunter Brown - SP/RP, Houston Astros - 85% rostered

Brown is the first of three players with something inherently wrong but is still worth holding. In fact, I'd go as far as saying all three players in this section should be considered "buy-low" candidates as they all have significant upside still.

In the case of Brown, it's his elevated ERA that has fantasy managers worried but also the reason why you can get Brown for less of a return than you should be able to. There is one rather large caveat to consider though.

After 18 starts, Brown has a 6-7 W-L record, 4.26 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 118 Ks (99.2 IP). If we look at his Statcast profile, it shows us what the problem has been for Brown this year.

When Brown is hit, he's generally hit hard. Of the 76 pitchers with at least 90.0 IP, Brown's 18.3% HR/FB is the fourth highest. That's despite having the third lowest FB% (23.0%) of that group of pitchers. Yes, giving up hard contact isn't generally bad luck but the number of homers Brown has allowed (11) does have an element of misfortune.

And the bad luck doesn't end there. Brown has a 3.04 xFIP, 3.42 SIERA and .324 BABIP. His high strikeout rate (28.2% K%) does mean he'd have a lower xFIP but those numbers still suggest he shouldn't have an ERA above 3.50 let alone over 4.20.

This month, Brown has made three starts and has an 8.76 ERA to show for them. But that's not the one caveat I mentioned about considering trading for Brown as those three starts also combined for a 2.17 xFIP and 2.84 SIERA.

The question mark hanging over Brown this year is his workload. Last year, Brown totaled 126.1 IP between Triple-A and the Majors. He's already closing in on a career-high number of innings pitched and it remains to be seen how far the Astros let him go on.

Brown's next start is set to be today, which will be the Astros' 100th game of the season. So with a five-man rotation, there are 12/13 starts left for each of them. If Brown averages 5.0 IP per start for the remainder of the year, that'll leave him at around 160.0 IP.

For a team in a tussle for a playoff spot and an injury-ravaged starting rotation, the Astros certainly find themselves in a dilemma, especially if they want Brown starting games in the postseason.

I suspect ~150.0 IP is about where the Astros will be comfortable with so missing a couple of starts or a move to the bullpen in September could be in order. That would still leave enough starts and innings for Brown to provide fantasy value and if his luck does turn, he could have a pretty big end to the season.

Leody Taveras - OF, Texas Rangers - 56% rostered

Taveras became a mainstay of the Rangers outfield which looked like it could be their one weak area coming into the season. In limited playing time since debuting in 2020, Taveras hadn't quite fulfilled the promise many had for him as a prospect, but he's now looking the part.

In 84 games, Taveras is hitting .284/.329/.459 with 11 homers, 43 RBI, 45 runs and 10 stolen bases. For someone who has hit almost exclusively in the number eight and nine spots of the lineup, those are very good numbers and enough for Taveras to rank as the 36th outfielder in fantasy.

Taveras has been scuffling along as of late which has led some to question whether or not he is now regressing to what we'd expect. After hitting .204/.271/.315 in April, it looked as though Taveras wouldn't be a viable fantasy option at all this year.

But in May, he hit .368/.419/.516 with a 161 wRC+ which catapulted Taveras into relevancy. Since then, he's had some struggles and that's reflected in the fact Taveras has ranked as the 61st outfielder over the last 30 days and 111th over the last 14 days.

Despite the struggles, Taveras has still been an above-average hitter with a 110 wRC+ since June 01 (helped by his seven homers in June). The Rangers offense has cooled off a bit but they've still been the fifth-highest run scorers since June 01 (229 runs).

As you should know by now, small samples aren't enough to justify decisions and we need to look at his numbers across the season to ascertain if Taveras is still worth rostering. A look at his Statcast profile will suggest it's a resounding yes.

There are many noticeable things here but what I find most significant is that not only is Taveras' .284 batting average not a product of good fortune, he's actually unlucky it's not higher given his .294 xBA. The margin is very small so I'm not expecting more growth but there's no reason to fear significant regression.

His .441 xSLG is a bit lower than his .459 SLG but again, not a huge difference to make you fear Taveras is about to fall off a cliff. His .341 xwOBA is identical to his wOBA so across the board, Taveras' numbers are warranted.

The other thing I find most noteworthy is the K%. While ranking in the 65th percentile might not seem much, Taveras' 20.3% K% is a huge improvement on the 28.9% K% he had in his prior three seasons in the Majors (660 plate appearances).

Taveras hasn't changed his approach, as the 49.6% Swing% this year is similar to the 48.8% Swing% in his career. But he's making more contact on pitches in the zone, with an 83.3% Zone Contact% this year (79.8% Zone Contact% in his career). He's just doing lots of things a bit better.

Taveras has always had excellent speed so 10 steals so far might not seem a great return. Considering when he does get on base, Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are normally due up afterward, it's understandable if he isn't green-lighted too often.

The defense also stands out in his profile and while this won't score anything in fantasy, it will keep him in the lineup regularly, even when he's struggling. The Rangers don't have much in the way of viable options without making a trade either.

There's enough to like about Taveras that'll make me keep him rostered. He's helping across the five main categories and even during his down July, Taveras has maintained an ok strikeout rate (22.6% K%) which is further encouragement of his growth as a hitter this year.

Unless we see a significant drop in production or a sudden loss in playing time, I don't see much reason to drop Taveras in anything but the shallowest leagues or those with only three outfield spots in your lineup.

Taj Bradley - SP, Tampa Bay Rays - 39% rostered

Bradley's call-up to the Majors came with a tonne of promise. The 22-year-old was widely regarded as a top-40 prospect in baseball and after his 2.57 ERA in 133.1 IP last year (across Triple-A and Double-A), fantasy managers were quick to add Bradley to their teams.

Unfortunately, as with many rookies, Bradley has struggled. In 14 starts (66.1 IP), he has a 5-6 W-L record, 5.29 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 89 Ks. If we scratch beneath the surface, we'll see that there's an ace in the making.

The first thing to do is look at Bradley's recent outings as his three starts prior to the All-Star Break are what got fantasy managers worried. Bradley allowed 16 earned runs in 12.1 IP with only nine strikeouts. The three starts took Bradley's season ERA from 3.86 to 5.43.

All eyes were on Bradley this past Tuesday when he faced the league's best offense; the Rangers. And it was a much better outing, with Bradley giving up just two runs in five innings while striking out nine. So what was the difference on Tuesday?

Bradley didn't change much about his pitch usage but he got more swings and misses on his changeup compared to his prior three starts as well as throwing his cutter for more strikes (shoutout to @corbin_young21 for the intel on that).

If we look at Bradley's swing-and-miss rate per game (by pitch), we can see that his three recent clunkers saw the changeup getting fewer whiffs and little else working by way of mitigation.

The above shows that although Bradley has had previous games when his changeup got fewer swings and misses, but another pitch would be garnering whiffs so it wasn't really noticeable in his results.

On the year, Bradley's changeup has a 43.9% Whiff% while his other three offerings range between 20% - 27%. So the changeup is the main putaway pitch and if that's not working and getting swings and misses, it likely won't bode too well for Bradley.

From a fantasy standpoint, his strikeouts are the main factor with his 30.6% K% ranking in the 90th percentile so even when he's struggling, Bradley can still provide some use. And regarding that ERA, don't be surprised if that begins coming back down too.

On the year, Bradley has a 3.31 xFIP and 3.39 SIERA with a .351 BABIP. The strikeouts help but there's no way Bradley should have an ERA of more than ~4.00. Even if we look at those three starts prior to the All-Star Break, Bradley's 11.68 ERA was inflated given he had a 5.68 xFIP and 5.23 SIERA.

I'm not too bothered by Bradley reaching an innings limit this year as he totaled 133.1 IP last year and is only up to 82.1 IP this year. He doesn't go deep enough into games (registering more than 5.0 IP just three times in 14 starts) to really hit a limit and an average of 5.0 IP in 12 more starts will see him reach 142.1 IP on the year.

Given the injuries and inefficiencies of so many other starting pitchers, rolling with Bradley over the remainder of this year makes sense. He could still add another ~80 strikeouts to your team totals, pick up some wins and I do expect that ERA to get down to under 4.50 by the end of the regular season.

In leagues counting quality starts instead of wins, Bradley is obviously considerably less valuable. In dynasty leagues, Bradley remains one of the best options and if you're rebuilding your team, now could be the last window to trade for him without giving away too much.

On the Hot Seat

Daulton Varsho - C/OF, Toronto Blue Jays - 88% rostered

If Varsho wasn't catcher eligible, I highly doubt he'd be more than 50% rostered. After 97 games, Varsho has 12 homers, 32 RBI, 40 runs and 12 steals with a .214/.275/.358 slash line.

To give you an idea of how important catcher eligibility has been for Varsho, he currently ranks as the 11th catcher in fantasy and as the 82nd outfielder. That catcher eligibility is the only thing keeping Varsho from being 100% droppable.

Whether or not he remains rosterable as a catcher is something we need to take a look at so let's start by taking a look at his Statcast profile.

And as we can see, it's not pretty. Given Varsho has 12 stolen bases, you would expect him to have above-average speed. But outside of that, all he's shown is an ability to hit the ball hard, just not frequently.

The frustrating thing with Varsho is if we compare some of his metrics from last year to this, you would expect him to be performing better. Last year, Varsho hit .213/.276/.360 with 27 homers, 74 RBI, 79 runs and 16 stolen bases.

These numbers were hand-picked of course and if you look at something like Varsho's Barrel% (10.2% in 2022 and 7.2% in 2023), you will get a different picture. But these numbers do show us what should be improvements in his numbers.

If a hitter cuts down the number of groundballs they hit, reduces the number of pitches they swing at outside of the zone, swings at and hits more pitches in the zone and ultimately hits the ball harder more often, you expect better numbers than before.

Where does all of this leave us from a fantasy standpoint? Well, as mentioned in the beginning, Varsho is ranked as the 11th catcher in fantasy so has still been borderline rosterable in standard leagues. If you drafted him as an outfielder, you will have likely dropped him by now.

Varsho is still one of the best options for power and speed at the position, ranking tied-8th in homers and first in steals among all catchers. So if you need both (or either), he's certainly still a viable option.

Fantasy managers' frustration has peaked this month as Varsho is hitting .146/.180/.146 in July (50 plate appearances) but despite his struggles, that's still too small of a sample for me to entirely base a decision on.

If you do choose to drop him (or have done so already), I don't blame you in the slightest. And if you've held on this long, then I'd probably be looking at giving him a bit more time before ultimately consigning Varsho to waivers.

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll ensure to cover at least three requests each week.

Bryan Reynolds - OF, Pittsburgh Pirates - 95% rostered

Much like the Pirates season, Reynolds got off to a great start but after an excellent first month, has faded badly. After hitting .320/.353/.573 with a 141 wRC+ in the first month of the season, it's been a bit of a struggle since and especially in July.

Reynolds was having a solid enough June before a back injury saw him hit the IL and it's fair to say, he's not been good since returning. Below shows Reynolds' numbers by month so far this year.

If this was purely a baseball thing, I'd say 100% you hold him, the struggles are a small sample and he'll be fine. But regular readers know I get a little anxious around back injuries.

Back issues can be notoriously difficult to overcome and if there are lingering effects, they won't magically disappear overnight. However, this is just conjecture at this point as we don't know for sure if the back is still a problem.

Given the Pirates aren't really competing for anything this year and Reynolds signed an eight-year contract this past offseason, if his back was a problem, it'd be prudent of the Pirates to keep him on the IL until he's 100%.

So maybe the back isn't the issue and he's just in a slump. Considering Reynolds had a .279/.350/.473 slash line before the injury, it's understandable thinking the back is still a nuisance but we likely won't know for sure so can only go off what we do know.

And what we do know is despite this seemingly looking like a down year for Reynolds, he's actually been performing well at the plate. He just hasn't had the results to show for it. His Statcast profile does have the look of someone who should have better numbers than he does.

Reynolds has a .275 xBA, .479 xSLG and .358 xwOBA (.323 wOBA) so has been unlucky. And given the contact he is making, Reynolds can consider himself hard done by with his numbers so far.

Reynolds has been a very good fantasy producer for some time now and I'm willing to give him a longer leash and not drop him on the basis of a rough three weeks or on the possibility he might be playing through a back problem.

He's slipped down to the 50th-ranked outfielder so far this season so even despite these struggles, he's still been rosterable in standard leagues. If we flipped his season around, he'd be considered one of the hottest hitters in baseball and deserves more time before he's considered worthy of dropping.

Steven Kwan - OF, Cleveland Guardians - 85% rostered

Kwan was included back in the Week 11 edition as a 'Hold For Now' and I'm not changing my mind about that. But it does feel like a suitable time to reiterate what I said last time out as it is true for more players than just Kwan.

On the year, Kwan is hitting .268/.341/.365 with three homers, 32 RBI, 66 runs and 15 stolen bases (97 games). When it comes to volume, Kwan is king as only four players have had more plate appearances than Kwan (441) this season.

Kwan has a specific skill set. He has little to no power, he doesn't strike out, he gets on base and runs the bases well. Pretty much the archetypal leadoff hitter. And if we look at his numbers from back in Week 11 and now, we can see Kwan has actually improved.

He's been walking and stealing a little less but overall, has been better than he was seven weeks ago. And seven weeks ago, I mentioned how the Guardians offense could easily start performing better which would see Kwan's production improve.

Back then, the Guardians ranked 28th in runs scored (210) and was averaging 3.62 runs per family. Since Week 11, they rank 10th in runs scored (199) averaging 4.98 runs per game.

That is a big part of why only five outfielders have more runs than Kwan and why he ranks 32nd at the position this year. He isn't providing you with any power or RBI, but if you expected him to when drafting him, you had an error in judgment at the time.

Kwan's expected numbers are similar to his actual numbers so I wouldn't be expecting him to hit .300 this year. I did mention back in the Week 11 edition, I'd expect him to hit ~.280 over the remainder of the season. And he's doing just that.

Now, I have said in the past about certain players like Kwan who will only help you in specific categories that they are expendable at a point in time. If you're doing well in runs but need help elsewhere, it does make sense to move Kwan at some point.

That point is not now and he will continue to rack up the runs, hit for a good average and chip in with stolen bases. You should have planned to get your homers and RBI elsewhere so there isn't really any reason to drop Kwan at this point in time.

Nolan Gorman - 2B/3B, St Louis Cardinals - 64% rostered

Never before has someone been so regularly requested to feature in The Cut List. And after appearing in the Week 12 edition, we're back to deciding if Gorman is worth rostering again. And I'm not going to spend too much time on this as it almost comes down to personal tolerance.

The reason I say that is everyone knows what Gorman is capable of, on the upside and downside. Immense streaks of power and production are met with the coldest of cold spells that would freeze a polar bear's rear end.

And the reality is; that's who he is. His numbers on the year are very good with 20 homers, 62 RBI, 43 runs, five stolen bases and a .243/.325/.489 slash line (90 games). And that includes a June in which Gorman had a .143/.211/.229 slash line and 24 wRC+.

In July, Gorman is hitting .274/.348/.597 with a 154 wRC+, further providing evidence of hit hot and cold profile. Gorman's rolling slash line throughout the season is a great visual for it.

So what do you do with Gorman? Well, personally, I'd continue to roster him. There aren't many second basemen that can thump like Gorman can, ranking fourth at the position in home runs and third in RBI.

Yeah, you have to accept the cold streak when they occur but realistically, if Gorman is your middle infielder, you should be able to find some help for a few weeks you need to keep Gorman on your bench. And when he begins to show signs of life again, get him back into your lineup.

It comes down to personal management and preference. If you can't deal with the bad stretches and you want to drop him, then do so. Just know that the cold patch won't last forever and when he heats up, you may have provided an opponent with a league-winner.

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