The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 15

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

We've reached the All-Star break and it's the perfect time to take stock, assess your team, and put in a plan for making the push towards a championship. This could be the perfect time to bolster your roster and add someone who will help you fill a void but the key is to not drop someone equally adept at helping your team bring home a championship. You also don't want to be holding on to someone unnecessarily and missing out on a possible league-winning addition from waivers.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the season progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit or reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Wander Franco – 3B/SS, Tampa Bay Rays – 94% rostered

The first of three Rays players to feature in The Cut List this week and none came into this season with quite as much hype. With an ADP of ~57 this preseason, Franco was someone I found to be drafted too early for my liking (as did many others).

There's no doubting the talent potential and Franco's hit tool could end up being one of the best in baseball. But he's 21-years- old and lacks just enough power and speed to miss out on being a top-tier fantasy option right now.

That being said, he wasn't a horrible draft pick as his hit tool offers a nice floor and he's certainly not been overawed in the Majors. Since debuting last year, Franco has hit .276/.330/.433 with 12 homers, 62 RBI, 87 runs, and seven steals in 128 games. Sadly, Franco finds himself on the IL for the second time this year.

After missing more than two weeks with a quad strain in early June, Franco returned to the IL last Sunday with a right wrist injury. And the prognosis isn't great with Franco now expected to miss 5-8 weeks following surgery to remove a broken hamate bone in his right hand.

Back in 2019, Matt Olson had surgery to remove his hamate bone and missed a total of six weeks so Franco's timeline does fall in line with that. That year, Olson still hit 36 homers in 127 games so I'm not too concerned about Franco making a healthy and productive return.

But if he does miss six weeks, that leaves a late August return and only around 5-6 weeks of the season left. If Franco's return is nearer the eight-week mark, we're then looking at less than a month of game time, in which many fantasy leagues will be wrapping up or heading into the playoffs.

Franco was scuffling a bit before the injury with five homers, 23 RBI, 34 runs, and five steals while hitting .260/.308/.396. That left him outside of the top-25 at both shortstop and third base, according to Yahoo!.

Verdict - As is my mantra, if you have a free IL spot and can stash Franco on there, then do so. But, if you need the roster spot for someone returning soon or a better upside play, then I'm ok with dropping him. For context, Franco was dropped in my 12-team Head-to-Head home league on Monday and I've been stashing Kyle Lewis and Steven Matz over Franco.

Shane Baz – SP, Tampa Bay Rays – 76% rostered

Number two from the Rays this week (I promise I'm not picking on them) and the second Tampa Bay player currently on the IL. Baz went on the IL earlier this week with elbow discomfort and while the news is better than first feared, it's still not great.

Baz is due to receive a platelet-rich plasma injection in his elbow before resting for a month and then being re-evaluated. That means he won't even be able to begin building up to a return until mid-August at the earliest. In reality, that leaves a September return as the best-case scenario.

Baz didn't make his season debut until June 11th following elbow surgery and there's a very real possibility that the Rays take it easy with Baz and don't use him as a conventional starter if he does return in 2022.

If the Rays do make the playoffs, having Baz available from the bullpen as a "follower" or for a couple of innings of relief could be huge and given he only turned 23-years-old in June, not pushing him if he does return this year seems like a sensible solution. But that does mean a limited appeal in fantasy.

Baz has flashed his potential in the Majors, despite a 1-2 W-L record, 5.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 30 Ks (27.0 IP). His first and last starts both saw Baz go 2.1 IP, allowing five and seven earned runs. The four starts between them saw Baz put up a 1.21 ERA (22.1 IP).

Baz's slider has a 43.5% Whiff% with 14 swinging strikeouts this year (some of which you can see above). And his arsenal should certainly transition to a relief role in the short-term if the Rays so choose.

* UPDATE *

News broke late yesterday that Baz is being transferred to the 60-day IL. No further updates on the extent of his injury were provided but that leaves Baz out until mid-September at the earliest.

Verdict - Before yesterday's news, I wasn't convinced we'd see Baz return for the Rays in the regular season. I'm now of the mindset that he's done for the year. Sadly, Baz isn't someone I'm stashing in anything other than dynasty leagues and he's a complete drop in all redraft leagues.

MacKenzie Gore - SP, San Diego Padres – 56% rostered

Another rookie pitcher who has had his struggles this year. Gore has been moved to the bullpen but only for the second part of this past week and should be a starter after the All-Star break, with the Padres returning to a six-man rotation.

But Gore has struggled massively in recent outings and now sits with a 4-4 W-L record, 4.08 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 70 Ks (68.1 IP). Over his last five starts, Gore has a 10.18 ERA with 16 walks and 13 strikeouts (20.1 IP) which includes five shutout innings against the Phillies.

During those five starts, Gore had a 7.05 xFIP and 6.49 SIERA so it's not just been a case of bad luck. Gore held hitters to a 40.4% HardHit% and 7.9% Barrel% in his first nine outings (eight starts). In his last five starts, hitters had a 51.9% HardHit% and 11.7% Barrel%.

He's walking too many batters and getting hit hard by the ones making contact. That's never a recipe for success if you're a pitcher and if we look at his Statcast profile for this year, it doesn't look too pleasant either.

I've said it before and I'll continue saying it; Statcast profiles are not the be-all-and-end-all and need to be viewed in more detail with greater context. But it's telling that Gore has worse expected numbers and the only positive is an above-average strikeout rate.

If we look at Gore's underlying numbers, he has a 4.89 xERA, 4.30 xFIP, and 4.28 SIERA. They haven't been overly inflated after his recent struggles as he had a 3.13 xFIP and 3.25 SIERA prior to his last five starts while sporting a 1.50 ERA.

Gore was included on The Cut List back in week 12 (as a Reddit Request) and I concluded on him with this;

"if his workload is carefully managed and the walks stay at their recent rate, Gore might not hold much more fantasy value this year. His stock is high, especially after Friday's outing, so he's someone I'd be looking at trading rather than dropping. Otherwise, I'm holding as long as he's starting for the Padres but not necessarily starting him every week depending on his matchup."

I'm still not convinced we see more than 120.0 IP from Gore this year and if rumors of the Padres looking to add a starter before the trade deadline are true, Gore could find himself as the odd man out.

Verdict - In dynasty leagues, Gore should be rostered 100%. In deeper redraft leagues, he has enough upside that while he's starting for the Padres, he remains a decent option. But I'm still not starting Gore every time and he's only a streaming option in shallower leagues right now.

Hold For Now

Lance Lynn – SP, Chicago White Sox – 87% rostered

There's no sugar coating this, it's been a rough 2022 for Lynn. After starting the season on the IL following knee surgery, Lynn made his season debut on June 13th. He's now made seven starts and has a fantasy line of 1-3 W-L record, 7.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 35 Ks (36.0 IP).

After a lengthy layoff, it wouldn't have surprised many that Lynn struggled out the gate, allowing 11 earned runs in his first three starts (16.0 IP) but in his fourth start, Lynn tossed six shutout innings. It seemed as though he was fully healthy and fantasy managers' patience was being rewarded.

His last three starts have fantasy managers questioning whether or not Lynn should even be rostered. A five-run outing was followed by Lynn's worst start since joining the White Sox, giving up eight earned runs on nine hits and two walks (4.0 IP). Yesterday, Lynn allowed six more earned runs in just 5.0 IP.

The obvious concern with Lynn is his fastball velocity, which is averaging 92.6 MPH. That's down 1.4 MPH from last year and the first time since 2018 that it hasn't averaged 94.0 MPH. But there are some little crumbs of comfort.

Despite the drop in velocity and Lynn's obvious struggles, he can consider himself to be a bit unlucky. With a 3.95 xERA, 4.07 xFIP, and 3.88 SIERA, his ERA does seem inflated. Especially given he's only allowed five barrels (4.9% Barrel% is in the 85th percentile).

But these are coming from a small sample considering Lynn only has 36.0 IP this year. And this will be the first time since 2011 that Lynn won't reach 150.0 IP (other than the shortened 2020 season). So it's important to look at his body of work prior to this year as well.

Lynn came into this season with a career of 3.48 ERA and 23.8% K%. He hasn't slowed down with age either as he's had a 3.26 ERA and 27.5% K% between 2019 - 2021 making this year's ERA and 20.1% K% look more like an anomaly, especially given his underlying numbers.

Lynn hasn't been helped by Tony La Russa, who regularly leaves in his starting pitchers for too long (Lucas Giolito fantasy managers can attest to that too). Just looking at Monday's start, Lynn gave up five runs in the first inning before recovering to throw 1-2-3 innings in the second and third.

Then Lynn gave allowed a hit and hit a batter in the fourth, before getting out of the inning without conceding a run. Despite being at 90 pitches, Lynn came out for the fifth and gave up a single and hit his second batter of the game before a double scored two runs and saw him leave the game. The inherited runner also scored.

That's been indicative of the White Sox this year and Lynn's struggles appear to be a combination of things. His track record, especially recently, is reason enough to make me not jump the gun in dropping Lynn so I am holding him for now. But I'm not sure I'll be starting him for another week or so.

Ryan McMahon – 2B/3B, Colorado Rockies – 61% rostered

The Rockies infielder looked like he was ready to fully fulfill his promise this year after having his best statistical season in 2021. In 151 games, McMahon had 23 homers, 86 RBI, 80 runs, and six steals while hitting .254/.331/.449.

But this year has been a frustration for fantasy managers and McMahon has scuffled to a .244/.336/.381 slash line with seven homers, 41 RBI, 37 runs, and five stolen bases (88 games). The 11.1% BB% rate (79th percentile) has been a nice bonus for points/OBP leagues, but the rest has been very 'meh.'

That's left McMahon ranking as the 30th second baseman and 23rd third baseman (according to Yahoo!). The most notable difference between this year and previous seasons is his struggles against left-hand pitching (LHP). Below shows his splits for both 2022 and his career numbers.

After showing pretty mediocre numbers against LHP throughout his career (other than walks), McMahon has really struggled against southpaws this year, while his numbers against RHP are quite average too. But I'm not ready to bail on McMahon just yet.

His walk rate is very good and so to are some of his contact metrics. McMahon has a 43.7% HardHit% (70th percentile), 91.4 MPH average exit velocity (86th percentile), and 9.8% Barrel% (65th percentile). His xwOBA (.342) and xSLG (.446) are both considerably better than his wOBA (.320) and SLG (.381).

I don't believe McMahon will ever become the star I had hoped for but he's still a solid contributor of runs and RBI and won't harm you elsewhere. He still gets to call Coors Field his home and providing he doesn't get platooned on a regular basis, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a better second half of the season.

Isaac Paredes – 1B/2B/3B, Tampa Bay Rays – 61% rostered

Given Paredes had an ADP of ~741 this preseason and is on more than half of the fantasy rosters out there, it's a testament to how he's performed this year. In 50 games, Paredes has 13 homers, 28 RBI, 27 runs and no steals while hitting .231/.303/.519.

Given Paredes had just two homers in 193 plate appearances with the Tigers before 2022, his power outbreak has come as a surprise. But he is only 23-years-old and hit 56 homers in 524 Minor League games during his young career, so it's not like he's got a noodle bat.

So, is a 35+ homer pace legit? Given eight of his home runs came in a 10-game spell in late June/early July, I'd suggest that it isn't. But there's more to it than just one hot streak and reason to believe for some power regression during the season's second half.

Of the 309 hitters with at least 150 plate appearances this year, Paredes' 6.9% Barrel% ranks tied-179th. A total of 62 players have 13+ home runs this year and Paredes ranks tied-54th among them for Hard% (according to Fangraphs). While his HR/FB (22.4%) is tied for 10th-highest.

Part of the reason he's found so much success in the power department is his propensity to pull flyballs, as of those 59 hitters with 13+ homers, Paredes' 52.3% Pull% is the fourth highest. If we look at his hits spray chart for this year, it demonstrates this nicely.

It's difficult to see Paredes being able to maintain that level of flyballs being pulled without increasing his hard hit or barrel rates. The good news for Paredes is more playing time should open up for him with the Franco injury and Taylor Walls filling in at shortstop most days.

According to Yahoo!, over the last 30 days, Paredes ranks 10th among first basemen, 10th among second basemen, and seventh among third basemen. But he drops outside the top-60 if we look at just the last 14 days so that hot streak has vaulted him up rankings and onto more rosters.

In shallower leagues, like 10-teamers, I'm not actively seeking to roster Paredes and even in 12-team leagues, it's borderline. But he does appeal in deeper leagues, especially where his multi-position eligibility has greater value.

He is still young so I'm optimistic he can be a solid contributor long-term and is someone I'd probably target in dynasty leagues, especially if he does cool off in the second half and his asking price comes down.

On the Hot Seat

Taylor Rogers – RP, San Diego Padres – 92% rostered

We return to the Padres pitching staff for this week's Hot Seat occupant, with closer Rogers having faced his own struggles in recent times. On the season, Rogers has a 0-4 W-L record, 3.82 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 26 saves, and 44 Ks (37.2 IP). The 26 saves are the second-most of any pitcher so far.

So having more saves than anyone not named Josh Hader (who could feature here next weekend) doesn't preclude you from scrutiny? Not in this case. After putting up a 2.70 ERA in his first 30 innings, Rogers has struggled of late and entered this weekend's series with six consecutive outings in which he's allowed an earned run (seven earned runs in 5.2 IP).

Rogers also has five blown saves on the season (tied-fourth most) and two have come in his last eight appearances. The Padres didn't suggest Rogers would lose the role and back-to-back clean saves against the Diamondbacks should have solidified his status as the closer in case there was doubt creeping in.

Rogers' struggles look more like a bump in the road of a long season than any expected regression and there isn't anything to suggest they'd continue after the All-Star break, especially after his last two outings.

Rogers has a 3.66 xERA, 3.11 xFIP, and 2.51 SIERA and has gone 17 appearances without allowing a home run. He's only given up one homer this year which has been important to minimize the damage he's incurred recently. During his little blip, Rogers didn't allow more than two earned runs in any appearance so he avoided being lit up at least.

His success has come despite being just a sinker and slider pitcher and it's the sinker that has been a problem, with a .313 xBA and .534 xSLG. His slider has a .196 xBA and .318 xSLG. If we look at Rogers' heat map for his sinker's location, we get a good idea why it's been his worse pitch.

After averaging 95.7 MPH with his sinker last year, this year it has an average velocity of 94.6 MPH. It has similar movement and spin rate numbers to last year but we can see with last year's sinker heat map that he's not locating it well enough in 2022. Last year, Rogers sinker had a .240 xBA and .394 xSLG.

The good news is Rogers' 28.2% K% is in the 81st percentile while his 4.7% BB% is in the 92nd percentile. And if he can locate his sinker better, there shouldn't be any issues with Rogers maintaining the closer role for the remainder of the season.

His recent struggles are a small red flag but as long as Rogers remains as the Padres' ninth-inning guy, I'm not considering dropping him. If Rogers' streak of allowing runs continues for much longer, he may not have sole possession of the closer role, in which case we will need to reevaluate things.

Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Sean Manaea – SP, San Diego Padres – 87% rostered

Like the Rays, we have three Padres featuring this week. Manaea is someone who moved up drafts following his trade to the Padres, coming into the season with an ADP of ~137  (SP37). Currently ranking as the 97th SP on Yahoo!, it's safe to say he's not lived up to that ADP.

It's likely his ADP was a bit overinflated after his trade given he ranked as the 52nd SP last year. That was after posting an 11-10 W-L record, 3.91 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 194 Ks (179.1 IP). This year hasn't been too dissimilar with a 5-4 W-L record, 4.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 100 Ks in 100.2 IP.

If we compare Manaea's number last year to this year, they're pretty similar with one exception.

The strikeouts are a bit down but the walks are way up. After ranking in the 89th percentile for BB% last year, Manaea now finds himself in the 31st percentile. In 17 starts, he's allowed a free pass in every game and seven times Manaea has walked three or more batters.

In 32 starts last year, Manaea had eight outings in which he didn't walk anyone and he walked three in six starts (never allowing more than three walks in a game). So he's already 'achieved' that in half the number of starts. Whilst some of it will be on Manaea, last year he had a much better batterymate.

In 2021, Sean Murphy ranked in the 82nd percentile for pitch framing. This year, Manaea has pitched exclusively to Jorge Alfaro, who ranks in the 49th percentile for pitch framing. That doesn't explain such a leap in his walk rate but is a contributing factor.

That may also link to Gore and Rogers having troubles. Although Gore has struggled for command throughout his Minor League career and Rogers has a near identical BB% this year as he did last year with the Twins.

In reality, Manaea got a bit lucky last year and was probably a bit over-drafted. This year, he's been a bit unlucky and is being a bit too disregarded. He's been ok and is still worthy of rostering on almost every league size, especially given his relative consistency from start to start.

Taylor Ward – OF, Los Angeles Angels – 86% rostered

After going almost completely undrafted this preseason and missing the first two weeks of the campaign, Ward has been arguably one of the fantasy MVPs given the value he's offered on his ADP (~736). Ward is currently ranked as the 34th outfielder on Yahoo! and 72nd hitter overall.

That's after hitting .286/.380/.492 with 12 homers, 34 RBI, 43 runs, and two steals (68 games). Hitting in front of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani certainly helps and when you have a 13.2% BB% (95th percentile), you should score plenty of runs.

Ward did move out of the lead-off spot at the beginning of July and has been hitting second, third and fourth over the last fortnight. It's likely a case of trying to 'mix things up' for a team that's really struggling. And it won't harm his value as he should be able to tally more RBI with the slight detriment to runs.

As you might expect, Ward's numbers have tailed off recently, coinciding with the Angels' poor form. Ward is hitting .184/.305/.265 with one homer, three RBI, two runs and no steals. The Angels are 2-12 this month.

Early season Ward looked like someone overachieving, given he was a .258/.332/.421 hitter with eight homers, 38 RBI, 49 runs, and three stolen bases (99 games) in the two seasons prior to this year. But he's certainly better than what he's shown us in July.

As long as he's hitting in the top half of the lineup with Ohtani and Trout staying healthy, Ward should be able to provide value in fantasy. I'm not dropping him, even in shallow leagues as he's a top-50 outfielder for me. But if the Angels suffer injury problems or he completely tanks after the All-Star break, I'll reassess Ward's fantasy worth.

Jared Walsh – 1B/OF, Los Angeles Angels – 81% rostered

We finish off this week with another Angels hitter, but Walsh came at a considerably greater draft expense (ADP ~118). And like Ward, Walsh has been struggling in July, hitting just .075/.119/.075 with one RBI in his solitary stat.

After hitting 29 homers, 98 RBI, 70 runs, and one steal with a .277/.340/.509 slash line last year, Walsh's .236/.280/.412 line with 13 homers, 41 RBI, 33 runs, and one stolen base (86 games) this year is a significant drop. That's left Walsh as the 34th first baseman on Yahoo!

To emphasize how bad Walsh has been in July, a total of 94 first-base eligible players have had an at-bat this month. Walsh ranks 94th in fantasy value among them on Yahoo!. That's seen Walsh move down the batting order but he's bounced around between third and seventh throughout the season anyway.

The below graphic does a better job highlighting how bad Walsh's decline has been in recent weeks than I can ever describe.

There's no doubting Walsh has been dreadful recently and the fact you would have been better off not playing anyone in his stead this month sums it up. But I'd rather base my decision-making on what to do with him over the last 18 months rather than the last 18 days.

Up until the end of June, Walsh was hitting .260/.303/.462 with 13 homers, 40 RBI, 33 runs, and one stolen base. He still has a 9.3% Barrel% (61st percentile) and 44.9% HardHit% (75th percentile) but the 29.8% K% (ninth percentile) and 4.8% BB% (eighth percentile) are a concern.

The projection systems have Walsh pretty much doubling his current stats by season's end and I'm inclined to believe that too. Like with Ward, the Angels will surely get better and as long as Trout and Ohtani can stay healthy, he'll have value if he can hit in the top-five spots of the lineup regularly.

I'm holding on to Walsh in all but the shallowest of leagues, but it wouldn't be the worst idea to make contingency plans for possibly replacing him in the coming weeks if things don't turn around sooner rather than later.

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