The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Fantasy Baseball Week 26

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 26 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season -- September 16 through September 22. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look.

We'll look at players worthy of a drop, those worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now. Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Eagle-eyed readers will notice that we have twice as many players in this section than normal. As you read on, you will see that the "Hold For Now" section is missing. That's purely down to the fact that with two weeks of the season left, how long can you justify holding onto a slumping star?

Instead, we're going to focus on four players worth dropping. There will be different reasons that make them droppable, which can be applied to other players. Without further ado, here is the penultimate Cut List of the 2024 season.

Steven Kwan - OF, Cleveland Guardians - 86% rostered

Despite the Guardians seizing control of the AL Central, Kwan has been mired in a six-week slump. Kwan's biggest fantasy asset is his batting average. Hitting atop the Guardians' lineup also helps him score plenty of runs. His batting average has plummeted, and that is hampering his run-scoring ability.

Since August 1, Kwan has hit .197/.322/.265 with a 78 wRC+. He's continued to start exclusively as the Guardians' leadoff hitter, allowing Kwan to score 23 runs in that period. That ranks 27th overall, so Kwan has still been a productive hitter.

A new concern (and possible explanation for his struggles) came to light on Friday. Kwan was a late scratch due to body fatigue and sat out Saturday's game. Kwan had played 120 of the Guardians' 127 games up until Friday (and 158 games in 2023), so dealing with some soreness isn't a big surprise.

Kwan scratched for precautionary reasons with body fatigue, per the Guardians. https://t.co/PyYjN5E6nQ

— Joe Noga (@JoeNogaCLE) September 13, 2024

With the Guardians in a tussle for the AL Central title and the number one seed in the American League, they will need Kwan playing. As he doesn't have a specific injury, a day or two of rest should be enough for Kwan to recover. Whether he can recover his form is another matter.

Verdict: Kwan offers little else other than an elite batting average. That's been lacking, and Kwan barely provides fantasy value. Unless you need the runs, Kwan doesn't warrant rostering. Even if he hit .300 next week, that would have a minimal impact except in head-to-head leagues.

Players nursing injuries should be looked at closely. We can expect many to be shut down or rested more in the final week of the season should your leagues go that far. When a team locks in their seeding for the playoffs (or gets eliminated), we should see some players getting additional rest days.

Ryan McMahon - 2B/3B, Colorado Rockies - 65% rostered

At this time of the season, including a Rockies hitter as droppable would likely be down to the fact they have few home games. Next week, Colorado has six games split evenly home and away. They close out the season with six home games in the final week. So why is McMahon not worth holding?

Simply put, he's not been any better at home than he has on the road. He's also been hitting left-handed pitching (LHP) as well as he's hit righties. Neither has been great, especially since the All-Star break. We can see his splits this year below.

Since the All-Star break, McMahon has a .191/.294/.309 slash line and 59 wRC+. He's homered five times in 46 games, with two of them coming in the last seven games. Collectively, the Rockies have better numbers at home so McMahon might be able to chip in with some more RBI and runs.

The Rockies rank fifth in runs scored at home (141) in the second half of the season. They rank 27th in runs scored on the road (84). That's despite playing 24 home games and 28 away games.

Verdict: McMahon has been struggling for two months. Given he has hardly benefited from playing at Coors Field, McMahon doesn't get the end-of-season boost most of the Rockies players do. The two-position versatility he provides may help you, but I'd be looking for McMahon's replacement on waivers.

It's important to look at a player's splits and consider whether they get a boost from their remaining schedule or should be downgraded. In cases such as McMahon's, there are lots of things to factor in. Make sure you look at all the relevant information and data pertaining to specific players.

Jackson Holliday - 2B/SS, Baltimore Orioles - 60% rostered

Holliday will still likely be a star. His debut season hasn't gone well, but that's to be expected and isn't an uncommon experience for rookies. In his first 50 games in the Majors, Holliday has hit .171/.224/.300 with five homers, 21 RBI, 25 runs, and four steals.

As a comparison, Gunnar Henderson only had five homers, 21 RBI, and 24 runs with a .234 batting average in his first 50 games. It's fair to say that Henderson has turned out to be a pretty decent player. So don't worry about Holliday's long-term outlook, or consider replacing him in dynasty leagues.

As we can see from his cumulative slash line, Holliday has never really recovered from his first stint in the Majors (10 games). He homered five times in the first 10 games following his recall but hasn't hit one since. Nor has he improved any of his numbers.

For the remainder of 2024, it's unlikely we'll see anything that resembles the numbers he will put up throughout his career. Holliday has been almost exclusively hitting eighth or ninth when he plays. The Orioles only rank 18th in runs scored (172) since August 1, which hasn't helped his stat line either.

Verdict: A paltry slash line, lots of strikeouts (35.0% K%), and few walks (5.5% BB%) suggest Holliday has been overmatched in his rookie season. That will change as he gains experience and more at-bats at the highest level, so don't panic about his future.

But for the remainder of 2024, you're rostering the name and prospect outlook. If you're still holding Holliday in redraft leagues, you're only hoping that he can flip a switch and suddenly become a quality Major League hitter. That won't translate into fantasy success.

Colin Rea - SP, Milwaukee Brewers - 50% rostered

Rea was already slated for inclusion before Tuesday's shellacking. And his 10-run outing against the Giants will have made many fantasy managers hit the drop button on Rea. He had been struggling of late, with a 5.20 ERA over his prior five starts. But Tuesday did catch many by surprise.

Tuesday was also the third consecutive start in which Rea only managed to record 12 outs. It saw his ERA increase by almost half a run. Rea's season line now sits at a 12-5 W-L record, 4.21 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 123 Ks (154.0 IP).

His ERA is now more in line with his underlying numbers. Rea has a 4.44 xFIP and 4.35 SIERA. Regression was always on the cards, and a pitcher that doesn't generate many swings-and-misses (18.8% Whiff%) is more liable to the kind of outing we saw this week.

The main reason for including Rea was his upcoming schedule. He's lined up to face the Phillies and Diamondbacks next week. Since August 1, Arizona has had the best offense in baseball. They rank first in runs scored with 253. That's 33 more runs than the second-placed Chicago Cubs.

The Phillies are sixth on the list with 196 runs. If we make the sample smaller, the Diamondbacks rank first for runs scored in September (82). The Phillies rank third (67). As far as two-start weeks go, Rea couldn't have picked a tougher pair of opponents.

Verdict: Fantasy managers will already have been put off from starting Rea next week after Tuesday's outing. Even if he had been solid against the Giants, it would only have been a desperate situation that would have made me want to start Rea next week. 

If you play the final week of the season, Rea likely gets the Mets to end 2024. By that point, he could be an afterthought in fantasy. Rea's week 26 schedule should act as a reminder to check your player's schedule. If you're not starting someone next week, is it worth holding them at all?

On the Hot Seat

Hunter Greene - SP, Cincinnati Reds - 89% rostered

The Hot Seat is usually reserved for a struggling star who needs to show signs of life at the plate or on the mound. They'd be at risk of being dropped if their cold stretch continues. With two weeks of the regular season left, things are a little different.

Greene is currently on the IL with elbow inflammation. At the time of his last start on August 13, he was in the conversation for the NL Cy Young Award. In 24 starts, Greene has a 9-4 W-L record, 2.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 162 Ks (143.1 IP).

Greene's Statcast Profile highlights how his numbers are supported by how well he has pitched. The numbers Greene has put up are no fluke.

So why would Greene be considered worthy of the Hot Seat? It's not talent or numbers. It's down to what we can expect from him. The Reds believe Greene will return during next week's homestand. But manager David Bell has already said, “he’s not going to be built up to go seven innings."

Realistically, Greene might have five innings next week. And that would be enough for six or seven strikeouts. Plus, the possibility of a win. Expecting any more will likely lead to disappointment. Depending on when Greene starts next week can determine how many more starts he gets.

There's a very real possibility that Greene only starts once next week and once in the final week. Then that's him done for 2024. On that basis, 10 innings, 12 strikeouts, and possibly a win are all fantasy managers should hope for. Anything else is a bonus.

Starting Greene will come down to what you need and who else is available to you. If you could do with the strikeouts, Greene still makes a good option. In head-to-head leagues where one blow-up could cost you ERA and WHIP, Greene is a risk.

Given he's coming back from a month-long injury layoff, Greene carries risk regardless of how well he's pitched this year. There really isn't a right or wrong answer as to what you should do with Greene. Just assess what you need and temper expectations. Then you won't be disappointed.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X, and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Alex Bregman - 3B, Houston Astros - 94% rostered

Bregman hasn't done himself any favors heading into free agency. He's setting career lows in multiple categories and, after a scorching start in August, has been mired in a four-week slump. Over the last 3o days, he ranked 188th among all hitters on Yahoo!

He missed some time in August and September due to elbow soreness. Since missing a week of August with the issue, Bregman has hit .222/.282/.431 with four homers, eight RBI, eight runs, and no steals (18 games). He's been showing signs of life recently.

After homering last Sunday, Bregman went deep again on Friday. He's only gone 5-for-26 (with three walks) over the last six games, but he has three extra-base hits. He's also tallied four RBI and four runs in that span as the Astros look to secure the AL West title.

The one thing Bregman has continued to do in 2024 is avoid striking out. His 13.6% K% ranks in the 93rd percentile. Bregman has been walking a lot less. His 7.0% BB% is his lowest since debuting in 2016 and only ranks in the 35th percentile. A look at his Statcast Profile shows us where his strength lies.

Bregman's lack of strikeouts will help in some points formats. When the Astros seal the AL West, they may rest Bregman if the elbow is an issue. He's shown no signs of being hampered by it recently, and the Astros may have to wait until the final week to do that anyway.

The way Bregman has swung the bat in the last few games makes him worth hanging on to for next week. At that point, the Astros could be locked into the third seed for the playoffs, so we can re-evaluate things then.

Alec Burleson - 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals - 73% rostered

Burleson has had a breakout season in 2024. After 139 games, he has a .271/.314/.434 slash line with 21 homers, 73 RBI, 66 runs and nine steals. It doesn't look like it will be enough to secure the Cardinals a playoff berth. And Burleson has been struggling of late.

Burleson is hitting just .167/.250/.190 in September (12 games) and hasn't homered since August 17. Even as the number two hitter in the lineup, Burleson has only three RBI and nine runs in the 25 games since his last home run.

The biggest struggle for Burleson has been hitting LHP. Burleson has hit .200/.228/.292 against lefties and .296/.342/.483 against RHP this year. While that isn't a big issue next week, it's worth focusing on over the final fortnight of the season.

The Cardinals have seven games next week. Currently, five of them will be against RHP, and two will be against LHP. That's enough to warrant starting Burleson if he wasn't slumping so much. In the final week of the season, the Cardinals are due to face four left-handed starters in their six games.

If Burleson wasn't struggling as much as he has been, I'd be much more open to the idea of holding him. I'd definitely look to drop him for the final week of the season. And I'd look at waivers for a replacement next week, although I wouldn't just drop Burleson for the sake of it.

Triston Casas - 1B, Boston Red Sox - 72% rostered

After flashing his potential last year, 2024 has been something of a lost season for Casas. He's been limited to just 50 games due to a serious rib injury. He's hitting .241/.332/.418 with eight home runs, 20 RBI, 21 runs and no stolen bases.

Casas admitted he was still playing with some pain last month. Given the numbers Casas has put up since returning from the IL, the pain might also be translating into diminished performance.

Triston Casas admits he’s still playing through pain in return, jokes he’s ‘one tough [SOB]’ https://t.co/pBIJvTMiOB

— Boston.com (@BostonDotCom) August 17, 2024

While his batting average before and after the IL stint is almost identical, the power has disappeared. Casas hit six homers with a .269 ISO in 22 games prior to the rib injury. Since returning, Casas has had two home runs with a .100 ISO in 27 games. In 11 games this month, Casas has one extra-base hit (a double).

Whether or not Casas is experiencing pain, he's not hitting for power. A lingering rib issue will do that to someone. Regardless of the cause, Casas' power outage doesn't give fantasy managers much of a reason to keep rostering him for the final fortnight of the season.

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