The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Fantasy Baseball Week 23

August 26, 2024

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued, and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 23 of the 2024 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 23 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season -- August 26 through September 1. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look.

We'll look at players worthy of a drop, those worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now. Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Christopher Morel - 2B/3B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays - 60% rostered

Any hopes fantasy managers had that the Rays would "fix" Morel will have been dashed by now. After putting up a .199 batting average with the Cubs, he's hitting just .188/.286/.325 with Tampa Bay. His season slash line now sits at .197/.299/.364 with 21 homers, 55 RBI, 52 runs, and eight steals (124 games).

While another 20-homer season isn't anything to be sniffed at, the batting average has negated any positives. Morel does have a .230 xBA (expected batting average), but that still only ranks in the 18th percentile. Morel possesses above-average power, he's just not made the most of it.

Morel's 45.5% GB% (ground-ball rate) is the 34th highest among 137 qualified hitters. His 18.3% IFFB% (infield fly-ball rate) is tied for fifth highest. Two weeks ago we mentioned how Isaac Paredes' power will suffer following the move from the Rays to the Cubs in the trade. That's not the case for Morel.

We can see from the above graphic that most of Morel's homers are to left field. That's expected but not as pronounced as Paredes' hits spray chart. As a result, Morel's 21 expected home runs by ballpark at Wrigley Field and Tropicana Field highlight no power boost following the trade.

Verdict: If you held on to Morel and were hoping for improvements following the trade, that's understandable. At this point, making a case for continuing to roster him isn't easy. Morel's power and multi-position eligibility do have value in deeper leagues. Outside of that, you should be looking for a replacement. 

Gavin Williams - SP, Cleveland Guardians - 47% rostered

Thursday's outing against the Yankees was a perfect encapsulation of Williams since his return from the IL. Despite flashing some electric stuff, he failed to get through the fifth inning. Ultimately, Williams was charged with three earned runs on four hits and four walks. He did strike out five batters.

After 10 starts, Williams now has a 2-6 W-L record, 5.13 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 52 Ks (47.1 IP). Fantasy managers who held on to Williams through the first three months of the season haven't been rewarded for their patience. And it's difficult to see that changing in the coming weeks.

Williams has been unfortunate. His 3.99 xFIP and 4.03 SIERA suggest he should have a better ERA. That's something that can even out throughout a full season. And we are looking at a smaller sample than most given Williams didn't make his season debut until July 3.

That would normally be enough to make me consider holding on to Williams. His schedule tells me otherwise. Williams is set to face the Royals in his next two starts, followed by the Dodgers. In August, the Royals rank third in runs scored (115) while the Dodgers rank fifth (111).

Verdict: If Williams had a better upcoming schedule, I'd be tempted to give him more time. But given he has tough matchups, has struggled of late, and missed three months with an elbow injury, there are too many red flags. I'm moving on from Williams in all redraft leagues.

Hold For Now

Jonathan India - 2B, Cincinnati Reds - 70% rostered

It feels like we've been waiting years for the full India breakout to occur. And again, it's not happening this season. After 121 games, India has 12 homers, 48 RBI, 67 runs, and 11 steals with a .250/.352/.394 slash line. Still solid production and enough to rank him 14th among second basemen on Yahoo!

Fantasy managers will be looking at India's .202 batting average in August and think he's slumping. Especially as he only hit .207 in July. In reality, India has had a below-par batting average every month except June. If we look at India's monthly numbers, we'll see that June's batting average is an outlier.

India does have a .275 xBA. So across the entire season, isn't too far off what we are expecting. His 12.4% BB% (94th percentile) makes India more valuable in most points leagues or those counting OBP (on-base percentage). But he's still tallying enough counting stats to be rosterable in most leagues.

Since late June, India has only hit first in the Reds lineup. Even if your league doesn't count his excellent walk rate, it's helping him score plenty of runs. As disappointing as India's lack of a big breakout has been, he's been solid enough to warrant rostering at what is a rather thin position.

Colt Keith - 2B/3B, Detroit Tigers - 33% rostered

We'll rarely include someone so low-rostered in the "Hold For Now" section. However, Keith is someone I'm prepared to make an exception for. The highly regarded rookie struggled out the gate, hitting just .154/.222/.165 in April. Since May 1, Keith has been hitting .289/.335/.455 with a 121 wRC+.

On the year, Keith has 12 homers, 48 RBI, 46 runs, and seven steals with a .260/.310/.392 slash line (118 games). The counting stats aren't great, which has suppressed Keith's fantasy value. That's not surprising given the Tigers rank 20th in runs scored (547) this year.

Despite that, Keith ranks as the 134th hitter on Yahoo! this year. The fact he can fill in at the two infield spots where waivers are thin also ticks a box making Keith worth rostering. July was by far his best month in the majors, so he's shown improvements as the season has progressed.

Keith isn't someone I'd suggest rostering in shallower leagues. But he's putting up a solid batting average and hits in the premium spot of the Tigers lineup. There's the potential for a big finish to the season, and if you're chasing in your leagues, you could do a lot worse than rostering Keith.

On the Hot Seat

Josh Jung - 3B, Texas Rangers - 76% rostered

If fantasy managers' patience hasn't been rewarded by Gavin Williams, they've been truly tested by Jung. Jung was hit by a pitch in the fourth game of the season. It was confirmed as a wrist fracture and he subsequently missed the next four months.

Jung made his return on July 30 but hasn't been able to get his bat going. Over the entire season, Jung has played 26 games and has four homers, nine RBI, 10 runs, and one stolen base with a .255/.274/.431 slash line. It's difficult to pass judgment on a player after 26 games, but that's what we're working with.

We saw what Jung was capable of last year, hitting .266/.315/.467 with 23 home runs, 70 RBI, 75 runs, and one stolen base in 122 games. He wasn't returning from a four-month layoff following a fractured wrist in 2023. The injury has put a huge question mark on what we can expect from Jung.

Jung's not been helped by a Rangers offense that's struggled this year. After ranking third in runs scored (881) last year, the Rangers rank 21st (546 runs) this year. Since Jung returned from the IL on July 30, the Rangers rank tied for 24th in runs scored (88).

If I was writing this in July, I'd strongly suggest holding onto Jung. If you could bench him for a while, then even better. Let him work his way back into form and then start him with confidence. The issue now is simple; time is running out. We have just five weeks left of the season.

Some of you in head-to-head leagues will be finishing up your regular season. In which case, do you want to go into the playoffs with a third baseman with less than a month's worth of games following a serious injury? That's an incredibly risky move and one you will need to seriously contemplate.

In roto leagues, there is a bit more time. And I'm loathe to base a decision on a player after a 22-game sample. However, there's no point hanging on to Jung for three weeks in the hope he turns things around as it'll be too late by then. By the end of August, if Jung is still struggling, I'd be moving on.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X, and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Seiya Suzuki - OF, Chicago Cubs - 90% rostered

Although Suzuki is yet to have the big breakout many had hoped for, he's still been very good. After 103 games, Suzuki has 18 homers, 60 RBI, 57 runs, and 10 steals with a .271/.344/.486 slash line. Despite missing almost a month with an oblique strain, Suzuki still ranks as the 23rd-best outfielder.

The frustration with Suzuki is it seems like he should put up better numbers. Especially when he has huge games like he did on Saturday. In reality, his 162-game pace is 28 homers, 94 RBI, 90 runs, and 16 steals. Even that feels a little low given his Statcast profile.

The reason Suzuki has come under the microscope recently is due to his August numbers. Before yesterday, he was hitting .250/.325/.382 this month and hadn't homered since August 1. The Cubs offense has come to life recently, scoring 30 runs in their last three games.

That has helped Suzuki look like a top fantasy option again. Yesterday's performance alone saw his August slash line jump to .274/.349/.507. Suzuki has shown us what he's capable of throughout June and July. Saturday was a reminder as to why he's a top-25 outfielder when healthy and should be rostered.

Mitch Keller - SP, Pittsburgh Pirates - 85% rostered

After back-to-back dreadful starts, Keller seemed to right the ship on Tuesday. Against the Rangers, he fired seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits. Keller didn't walk a batter, which ended a streak of six consecutive starts in which he had walked multiple hitters.

Keller also matched a season-high nine strikeouts. It left Keller with an 11-7 W-L record, 3.76 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 134 Ks (148.1 IP). After totaling 194.1 IP last year, Keller is turning into a reliable starting pitcher and may be benefiting from having the spotlight taken from him by Paul Skenes.

We would like to see more strikeouts from Keller as his 21.3% K% (40th percentile) is down from last year's 25.5% K% (65th percentile). Not only did he have better strikeout numbers, Keller was simply better in 2023. If we compare his underlying numbers, Keller has taken a small step back in 2024.

Last year, Keller had a 4.21 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, and 3.83 SIERA. This year, Keller has a 4.07 xFIP and 4.08 SIERA. Both are more than his ERA but not to the point we should be worried. Throughout the season, it just seems Keller is a bit lucky whereas he was a bit unlucky with his ERA last season.

Keller needed to get back in fantasy managers' good books. After giving up 15 earned runs in his previous two starts (9.0 IP), Tuesday was the way to do it. While the six-man rotation isn't great for Keller's fantasy value, he has a nice upcoming schedule and is still well worth rostering.

Nick Lodolo - SP, Cincinnati Reds - 68% rostered

Unlike Keller, Lodolo wasn't able to bounce back following some rough outings. Having just been tagged for eight runs against the Royals last week (2.1 IP), Lodolo gave up five runs on Thursday (4.2 IP). He's now got a 7.54 ERA since July 1 (nine starts). His season's numbers don't look as rosy as they did in June.

Lodolo has a 9-6 W-L record, 4.76 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 122 Ks after 21 starts (115.1 IP). The good news is the strikeouts. Even when he struggles like he did on Thursday, Lodolo still struck out nine batters. His 24.7% K% ranks in the 64th percentile and he's tied 54th overall in strikeouts.

The problem has been the ERA and how much it's ballooned recently. Despite the poor results, Lodolo hasn't been that bad. His 7.54 ERA in his last nine starts is despite a 4.12 xFIP and 4.01 SIERA. If we look at Lodolo's cumulative ERA and xFIP this season, we can see how his xFIP has remained consistent.

Lodolo has a 3.92 xFIP and 3.77 SIERA on the season. If his ERA matched those numbers, it'd make rostering Lodolo much more palatable. For now, even though he's been unlucky, it's difficult to hold Lodolo. Unless ERA means little to you at this stage of the season and you need Ks, I'd be looking at replacing him.

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