The Baller Ranks: Top 200 Hitters Weekly Rankings (Week 9)

Last week I wrote that the schedule had begun to have an outsized impact on value. At this point, it's not impacting projected value even more than recent performance. There are exceptions to that, but that's the overarching rule this week. Paul Goldschmidt's value has been buoyed by this aspect for much of the season. The first baseman has had an excellent campaign while hitting in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks, but his value has been inflated since St. Louis was shut down during its COVID outbreak back in August.

While I want this final column to be similar to the ones that preceded it, these last eleven days are unique even within the context of a season that has been unique. In trying to adjust the column to fit the moment, this update is also less process-based than previous versions and more a reflection of the current state of baseball. For instance, the projections systems maintain optimism about seasonal underperformers like JD Martinez, but these final ranks for the season reflect some of the time limitations and schedule impact of the remaining games. Simply put, these final rankings are more focused on immediate performance than previous versions. Throughout the season, projections and peripheral stats have driven the process. I'm not about to abandon that altogether, but at this point, the median team has ten games left. That changes the situation.

As we look down the barrel of the season's final days, I want to be sure to thank the team here at Rotoballer and Nick Mariano, who has anchored the pitcher side of things. It's been a real pleasure reading his installments each week and getting to collaborate with him. Likewise, I've had a number of readers reach out with feedback about player valuation, formatting, or features for the sheet. A big thank-you to everyone. It's made this process more fun, and I think it has made the sheet much better.

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Rest of Season Schedules: Strength vs. Volume

Rather than looking at individual players this week, here is an overview of the data that is helping to drive some of the changes in player value.

I took the time to compile opponents, the strength of opposing pitching staffs, normalized both, and then combined the data to provide the relative difference in value for the rest of the season. I believe I have accurately accounted for all the remaining seven-inning double-headers. Factoring all that in, here are the MLB teams ranked by ROS value based on opponents and remaining games. The right-hand column shows each team's strength-of-schedule multiplied by their remaining games.

The table above is about the remaining schedule only, and not the quality of the individual players on those teams. Basically, a league-average player on the Marlins should be 20% more valuable than a league-average player on Diamondbacks. In case you had any doubt about Starling Marte's value down the stretch, it should be good. Likewise, if you haven't already been starting players for every single double-header, the table above should prompt you to correct that behavior.

Buying Bats with Bulk

The first thing that jumps out is that the top two teams have the most games remaining. Both Washington and Miami have above average schedules, and they'll get to play 12 more games against those weaker opponents. To be frank, I thought that the strength-of-schedule would have a larger impact, but the table above shows volume is king. Again, the wROS scores do reflect double-headers or the Nationals' and Marlins' schedules would be around 25% more valuable than the average team.

By contrast, the Padres' hitters have the easiest remaining schedule. They get to face the Mariners, Angels, and Giants, but the Friars are sitting at the bottom because they have only eight games remaining. The Yankees still have a strong schedule, but they have fewer games to maximize their value. Meanwhile, the Rockies will see two of MLB's worst pitching staffs when they play Arizona and San Francisco, but they'll be away for both of those games, so the benefit of the park factor is reversed.

Obviously, this all exists in a vacuum, but in the context of the final eleven days, managers need to be thinking about this when making roster moves and setting their lineups. For leagues with daily moves, managers can stream hitters against MLB's weaker pitching staffs, especially teams like the Red Sox, Tigers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks. If you can catch one of those teams on the road, it's all the better. For leagues with transaction limits or weekly lineups, it makes sense to go see which Marlins, Nationals, Cardinals, and Phillies are available on the wire for the final week.

Where to Find Steals

While most of the fantasy stats aggregate around opposing team wOBA, steals are an entirely separate category. Yes, some teams have particularly noticeable weaknesses: the Diamondbacks and Red Sox give up a ton of home runs, for instance. However, bad pitching staffs generally give up runs, RBI, home runs, and hits in equally generous measures.

For managers in need of a couple of extra steals, the Angels (41), Braves (37), Nationals (36), Diamondbacks (35), and Mariners (35) have been the most susceptible to giving up bases. That makes a player like Leody Taveras, who will face the Angels and Diamondbacks, especially valuable. The same could be true for Jon Berti if he returns from the IL this weekend. The Marlins will see both the Nationals and Braves in this final stretch. If you are a believer in Jazz Chisholm, he should have the same opportunity as Berti. Andres Gimenez has been a pleasant surprise this season, but he's rostered in only 15% of leagues, and the Mets also face the Braves and the Nationals for a combined seven games. Any one of those four players could add two or three steals for a team.

The sprint season has left us with a final run that is closer to something like fantasy football than fantasy baseball. Middle-of-the-pack teams can dramatically change their position with these final games. Hopefully, this schedule breakdown gives you some opportunities to do that.

Here are the Baller Ranks Top-200 hitters and the Meta Report for Week 9/10:

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