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The busiest thing about NFL free agency so far has been the quarterback changes. Entering Tuesday, we all still thought that the Panthers were sticking by their statement that they intended to enter 2020 with Cam Newton at quarterback. If you follow him on Twitter, you know very well that isn't the case.
By the end of Tuesday, Teddy Bridgewater was Carolina's starting quarterback. Bridgewater was inked to a three-year, $63-million deal that indicates he's not heading there to stand on the sidelines and hold a clipboard.
So, what can we expect from Bridgewater in Matt Rhule and Joe Brady's offense? How will he impact the other players in Carolina? What's this all mean? Let's figure it out.
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What Will Teddy Bridgewater Bring to the Panthers?
Bridgewater is one of the most interesting quarterbacks on the market because there are still so many unknowns with him.
His entire career was derailed by a devastating knee injury back in 2016. After a Pro Bowl season in 2015, Bridgewater didn't start an NFL game again until 2018. He didn't start multiple games until last year, when he got five starts in place of Drew Brees. In that time, Bridgewater went 5-0 with a 9:2 TD:INT ratio.
Let's get this out of the way first: Bridgewater's fantasy upside is lower than what a healthy Cam Newton would have given you had he still been the Panthers' quarterback, because Bridgewater isn't going to give you anything on the ground. He had 31 rushing yards last year. His longest run was 11 yards. He had four first downs as a runner. At this stage, Bridgewater is going to be in the pocket, throwing the football.
But he did a good job of that last season! Bridgewater completed 67.9 percent of his passes, averaging 241 passing yards per game. Bridgewater didn't qualify for the official leaderboards, but if he had, that completion percentage would have ranked sixth in the NFL. His interception percentage would have tied with Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson for second-lowest.
He would have also ranked closer to the middle of the league in some things, such as finishing 13th in adjusted yards gained per attempt and 12th in adjusted net yards per attempt. But other numbers for Bridgewater look really, really good. He was second in accuracy rating, fourth in deep-ball completion percentage, and fourth in true completion percentage. Bridgewater's efficiency numbers are strong.
But completing passes doesn't necessarily mean you're going to be a top fantasy quarterback and that's where Bridgewater's biggest potential downside comes in. Among all quarterbacks to attempt at least 128 passes, Bridgewater was last in average intended air yards. There was a pretty strong link last year between high completion percentage and low air yards and it resulted in guys like Bridgewater, Derek Carr, and Jimmy Garoppolo completing a lot of passes but ranking 19th or worse in fantasy points per game. Bridgewater was just 22nd in fantasy points per dropback, for instance.
What that means is that while Bridgewater is likely to avoid the kind of reckless turnovers that result in negative fantasy points, he also doesn't profile as someone who'll get big yardage and touchdown numbers, which should lead to him being a streamable QB2 depending on matchup and nothing more. It's like when you occasionally thought "sure, I'll start Jimmy Garoppolo this one time" and it worked fine because he played Arizona, but if you'd started him every week you would have missed the playoffs despite San Francisco rolling to the Super Bowl.
There is one interesting factor here, though, which is Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator for the Panthers. Last year as the passing game coordinator for the LSU Tigers, Brady helped turn Joe Burrow from an average passer into the guy who broke the single-season touchdown record despite playing against SEC opponents. If Brady really is some kind of magician, Bridgewater could far exceed expectations this year. He's been accurate when he did throw deep; he just doesn't throw deep much.
That possibility is in the back of my mind. It might make me take Bridgewater to be my backup fantasy quarterback in some leagues. What it isn't going to do is cause me to reach for Bridgewater or draft him as a starter. Brady could have a huge impact on Bridgewater, but he's also a quarterback who is at his best working in the short-yardage game who doesn't give you any points as a runner. There's a fantasy ceiling on that kind of player and it's not the highest one. Bridgewater should be good for the real-life success of the Panthers, but it's hard to see him finishing as a fantasy QB1 on a per-game basis.
The Trickle-Down Effect
First things first: Christian McCaffrey is still the 1.01 in redraft leagues. He was before this announcement, he is now. McCaffrey is going to get the ball in a variety of ways, and Bridgewater's accuracy in the short passing game is a positive for him, but I'd also argue that even if the Panthers had brought in someone like Jameis Winston who'd throw the ball deep 50 times per game, the team would still have found ways to get the ball to McCaffrey. The bigger question involves the wide receivers.
D.J. Moore should be mostly fine. He's not Carolina's downfield threat, and he should benefit, especially in full PPR, from Bridgewater's accuracy. I'd be hesitant to rely on Moore as my top fantasy receiver, but there shouldn't be a drop off from the Kyle Allen days to the new Bridgewater one. Lots of short passes, rack up some YAC, finish with another strong season. I'm not worried about D.J. Moore. He's got a decent shot to have a stronger 2020 than 2019 because of the consistency at quarterback. Bridgewater is a significant upgrade over Allen.
Curtis Samuel is a different story. Among all players with 43 targets last year, Samuel's average targeted air yards ranked 12th. He's a big play, speed receiver who now has a quarterback who doesn't throw deep. With the right quarterback, Samuel could have been in line for a break out 2020 campaign, but I don't think Bridgewater is the right quarterback. He'll get some downfield targets and, as I mentioned earlier, Bridgewater is pretty accurate when he does go deep, but there's going to be a lot of volatility here. Allen was midpack in intended air yards; Bridgewater is at the bottom of the league. 2020 could be rough sledding for Samuel.
Last, Ian Thomas moves into the tight end role that Greg Olsen vacated. I like Thomas in 2020. He only had 16 catches last year, so we don't have a ton to work with in terms of numbers, but Jared Cook had a pair of touchdowns when targeted by Bridgewater last year, and while only 11.2 percent of Bridgewater's passes went Cook's way, he made the most of those chances. I don't think we see Thomas challenging to be one of the top tight ends, but Bridgewater should make him a solid streaming option at the position, with the upside to be even more.
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