Tape Tells All: Analyzing Gabe Davis' Week 1 Performance

September 15, 2022

Justin Carter breaks down the performance of Gabe Davis in Week 1 and evaluates the fantasy football upside of Davis going forward in the 2022 NFL season.

Welcome back to Tape Tells All, the weekly series where I look at film and data for something that happened in the NFL this week. It's been fun doing this column for the last few years, even if the rigors of real life led to me not writing it for the second half of last season. Sorry!

Today, I want to look at a player who was controversial all offseason. Some people loved him. Some people hated him because too many people loved him. He's Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis, or Gabriel Davis. Let's stick 'em both in there for the SEO, right?

Anyway, Davis had a fascinating Week 1. He found the end zone, but his usage was also odd enough that I'm not sure how to feel about him finding the end zone. So, let's just try to figure out what we should think about Davis going forward.

Background Information

Alright, let's rehash the offseason debate about Davis.

With Cole Beasley leaving Buffalo, there was a clear opening for someone to step up in Buffalo, and Davis made the most sense because the last time he was on an NFL field, he shredded the Chiefs' defense in a playoff loss, catching eight passes for 201 yards and four touchdowns. In two preseason games, he ended up with five touchdowns. Those are great numbers—I'm not going to sit here and give you caveats about the Chiefs' defense or anything.

But I was skeptical of Davis entering this offseason. I outlined my reasons for that in an article this offseason, which you can read here. But if you don't want to click out of this article, here are a few quotes about why I viewed Davis as overhyped:

Here's my issue with Gabriel Davis: he's playing a role in Buffalo that we haven't really seen be successful with Josh Allen at QB. Stefon Diggs is the team's main outside threat. The slot role should go to either Isaiah McKenzie or Jamison Crowder. Davis will be the other outside receiver. And that second outside receiver role...well, it just hasn't really produced much.

Last year, Stefon Diggs was targeted 164 times. Cole Beasley, the main slot receiver, saw 112 targets. The top outside receiver, Emmanuel Sanders, saw just 72 targets.

Basically, Davis was pegged to play outside, and the Bills haven't utilized a second outside receiver very well with Josh Allen at quarterback.

But the options to replace Beasley—Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder—aren't great options, so there were a lot of people who thought we'd see some kind of fundamental shift in how this offense operates. And that's what we're really trying to figure out about Week 1: was that fundamental shift there?

Statistically, Davis did well, catching four passes for 88 yards and a touchdown while playing 98% of the team's snaps. But at the same time, his five targets ranked third on the team, and the slot duo of McKenzie and Crowder combined for seven targets and a touchdown.

So, where are we at with Davis now? Let's dig into some film and some data and try to make sense of things.

The Gabe Davis Game Tape

Okay, let's start where I expect you want to start: the touchdown.

The simple math of fantasy football is that touchdowns get you six points, plus one point for the reception in full PPR and then 0.1 for each yard, which is why people like to see their players play touchdowns. None of this information is revolutionary, but the reason I bring it up is that I get the sense touchdowns are going to be really, really important when it comes to how Davis scores points this season.

So, here's the touchdown:

And here are the "dots" for the touchdown:

What do we see here? Well for one, this is a great play design by the Bills. It's third and one and you line up in a formation that clearly says "we're running." Davis is the only receiver on the field, and he actually moves in closer to the formation pre-snap, making it look like he's sliding over to provide additional blocking.

And that's what he does at first. Davis blocks a defender at the snap, but then disengages and runs into space as the DB who should be on him ends up playing to protect against an Allen run.

That leaves an open path for Davis, who gets into space, catches the pass, and then only has to go 10 yards after the catch to get into the end zone.

Again, good play design. But the thing that worries me about this play is that it's not necessarily a "normal" play. Stefon Diggs was off the field for it.

Diggs actually played just 38 snaps on Thursday. But part of why Davis was on the field so much more seems to be that Davis is better at run blocking. In passing situations, Diggs still excelled:

And this is where my concern lies with Davis. He'll be on the field a lot, but how much of that is because of run blocking? In passing situations, the ball wasn't really going his way too much. Simply put: before I believe that I was wrong about Davis, I want to see him more involved in passing plays. I want to see Josh Allen looking his way more consistently.

Otherwise, I'm going to worry that Davis is a touchdown-dependent play and that the Bills haven't shifted their offense. Diggs is still that first look, and I'm not confident after Week 1 to say that Davis is that second look. Based on the numbers, it's still the slot guy. Even the touchdown Davis had came with him playing inside at the snap, a role that he won't usually be in.

Gabe Davis Fantasy Football Impact

So, how did Week 1 change the way I view Davis in fantasy?

It didn't really. I'm slightly higher on him than before, but I still have the same concerns.

Coming into the season, I viewed Davis as someone who was going to have some big games because of his ability to find the end zone but also would likely disappoint fantasy managers in weeks where he doesn't find the end zone. And after one week, I still feel that way.

Davis in Week 1 was a good player to have on your roster. But take that touchdown away, and you're looking at three catches for 62 yards. You like the yardage total, but in 0.5 or full PPR leagues, Davis' usage becomes just a bit problematic. If he's going to be used as a big play receiver, great—there will be weeks where that pays off.

But if Davis has to do that on low usage, there will be a handful of weeks where the lack of receptions will really hurt his value in certain kinds of leagues. For that reason, I consider Davis to still be a boom/bust play, though I do have to say that I like him a little more now than I did before since we've at least seen that the team will use him for big plays.

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